Article: TD Top Prospects: #9 Trevor May

[Jeremy Nygaard]

When the Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies on December 6, 2012, fans expected immediate dividends from Vance Worley, who became the Opening Day starter less than four months later. We all know how that chapter of the story ended.

 

We are also very familiar with how the second chapter of that trade began when Trevor May stepped on the mound to make his major league debut in Oakland on August 9, 2014.

 

But his part of the story is far from over.Age: 25 (DOB: 9/23/89)

2014 Stats (AAA): 98 IP, 2.85 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 94/39 K/BB

(MLB): 45.2 IP, 7.88 ERA, 1.774 WHIP, 44/22 K/BB

ETA: 2015

2014 Ranking: 10

 

What's To Like

 

Since debuting as the Phillies 28th best prospect in 2009, according to Baseball America, May has spent the next six off-seasons wearing the “Top 10” label. His repertoire has largely stayed the same: the large-bodied right-hander features a low 90s fastball, a low-to-mid 80s changeup and both a 75-to-77 mph curveball and a slider in the low 80s. Combine that four-pitch mix with the fact that, up until missing a month last summer with a calf strain, May had never missed a start in his professional career, and you have the makings of a solid, back-end starter. May has also had a penchant for striking hitters out, too, supporting a 10.4 K/9 through his seven professional minor league seasons. In the high minors (AA and AAA), that number has dropped to a still-impressive 9.1.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

Though May offers a four-pitch mix, durability and high strikeout rates, there are two pretty significant roadblocks preventing him from becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter: inefficiency and lack of control. In his 45 2/3 inning MLB cameo, May averaged 18.67 pitches per inning. That’s about two pitches per inning higher than his year in AAA (16.11). To put that in perspective, Kyle Gibson (15.61 pitches per inning) and Phil Hughes (14.52) averaged much less. That’s the difference between going five innings in a start and the seven innings a team would love to get from their starter. The knock on May since his pro debut has been one of the reasons the pitch-count gets so high: walks. He has improved through time, though not enough, from 5.4 BB/9 in his 2010 full-season debut to 4.7 BB/9 in AA in 2012 to 3.6 BB/9 in his 98 AAA innings this year. His MLB debut saw him put up a 4.3 BB/9.

 

What's Next

 

There are two Trevor Mays you’re probably familiar with. The Trevor May who we all felt bad for on that summer night in Oakland. The Trevor May who labored through two innings and 63 pitches with only 28 strikes. The Trevor May who walked seven A’s batters.

 

Then there’s the other Trevor May. The Trevor May who dominated AAA. The Trevor May who mowed down 10 Chicago White Sox without walking any. The Trevor May who was selected to pitch on the Target Field mound at the Futures Game. (He missed the game with the calf injury.)

 

There are plenty of reasons to believe that we’ll see Trevor May secure the fifth and final rotation spot this spring. May will be under the tutelage of Neil Allen, who wants his pitchers ramped up to throw well over 100 pitches. May can look to #1 starter Phil Hughes who set an MLB record for lack of walks. And, finally, the Twins were in a similar position last spring before the guy (Kyle Gibson) with a rocky debut the previous season took hold of a rotation spot, the exact position that Trevor May is in coming to Fort Myers in 2015.

 

If May fails to lock up the last rotation spot, the Twins will be in an interesting position: send the 25-year-old back to AAA, a level he owned last year, or move him to the bullpen.

 

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[nater79a]

May is the guy I'd like to see in the rotation. He showed enough promise in September after his rocky start. Somehow he needs to pitch better out of the stretch though...seems he loses his control more in those situations.

[Parker Hageman]

Great stuff overall, Jeremy. I'm hoping we see a lot more of Trevor May soon. The one thing I would like May to improve on -- besides the numbers -- is pitching from the stretch. It is in those situations that have weighed on his performance. 

[clutterheart]

The battle between May Meyer & Berrios will be fun to watch this spring

[RedBull34]

The battle between May Meyer & Berrios will be fun to watch this spring

Meh, I don't think Berrios will get the nod.  If anything, the Twins need to save the extra year of control and have other alternatives.

[tobi0040]

I think we should get used to May's up and down performance.  In 2012 and 2013 when he ended with an ERA in the 4.80 and 4.50 range, those were skewed quite a bit by a few bad outings.  In 2013 he had two starts with 8 ER each, and another two with 5 ER.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, Berrios may get the opportunity, but I'd imagine he's going to spend most of this season in the minors.  What will be real interesting is how the rotation is handled going forward.  Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana are locked up for a while.  I wouldn't be shocked if Gibson (or possibly Nolasco) is traded this offseason. 

[amjgt]

The battle between May Meyer & Berrios will be fun to watch this spring

 

For Ace of the Rochester staff?

[HitInAPinch]

Guys like Trevor May have always confused me.  6'5" 215 lbs and he throws in the low 90's?  Someone was not teaching proper mechanics:  lunge forward, drop front leg into the bucket, rotate hips and power through with back leg.  That being said, I view him much like Eduardo Escobar:  did he do anything to lose his position?

 

In the end, the problem will be in the long-term signings of Nolasco, Pelfry, et al and not promoting from within.

[gunnarthor]

I really like May and think he ends up leading the Twins in strike outs this year.  I think he gets the #5 spot out of ST and makes 32 starts for us.  

 

I remember reading a few years ago a Reusse column where he asked someone in the FO if the Twins had any guys in the system that could just be an innings eating anchor - not another Johan, but a guy who constantly takes the ball and throws 200+ innings, year after year.  He was told May was going to be that guy.  

[Willihammer]

I was impressed by May too. He has to pitch better out of the stretch if he's going to eat innings though. Its strange because it was not an issue in 2012-2013 but he just got hammered last year.

[tobi0040]

I was impressed by May too. He has to pitch better out of the stretch if he's going to eat innings though. Its strange because it was not an issue in 2012-2013 but he just got hammered last year.

 

 

I really like May and think he ends up leading the Twins in strike outs this year.  I think he gets the #5 spot out of ST and makes 32 starts for us.  

 

I remember reading a few years ago a Reusse column where he asked someone in the FO if the Twins had any guys in the system that could just be an innings eating anchor - not another Johan, but a guy who constantly takes the ball and throws 200+ innings, year after year.  He was told May was going to be that guy.  

 

Interesting about the k's.  May had 8.67 per 9 last year with the Twins.  Higher than Ervin (8.2) and Hughes (8).   Obviously better than Ricky and Gibson.

 

His biggest competition will hopefully be Meyer.  Just a matter of innings.

[IndyTwinsFan]

Meh, I don't think Berrios will get the nod.  If anything, the Twins need to save the extra year of control and have other alternatives.

I also think that Berrios would be better served by at least one full season at AA and/or AAA.  He's young enough that I don't view it as a setback in his overall development.

[shs_59]

I was impressed by May in September much more than in August.  As others have pointed out he needs to pitch better, a lot better, from the stretch.

 

I'm only giving may about a 33% chance to open yr in the MLB rotation. .. but if he doesn't make that; its still very possilbe he starts year out in bullpen. So he can work on coming into games with a runner on first, and one out in the 6th or 7th inning.

 

Would almost be good for his development at this point, the littttttle bit of time he has left.

 

I personally see 0% chance for guys like Boyer, Achter, Oliveros, Pryor, Graham, Darnell, and even a marginal chance for Pressly and Tonkin.

[Dantes929]

Guys like Trevor May have always confused me.  6'5" 215 lbs and he throws in the low 90's?  Someone was not teaching proper mechanics:  lunge forward, drop front leg into the bucket, rotate hips and power through with back leg.  That being said, I view him much like Eduardo Escobar:  did he do anything to lose his position?

 

In the end, the problem will be in the long-term signings of Nolasco, Pelfry, et al and not promoting from within.

Give Shaquille O'neal all the instruction in the world and I doubt he could touch 80.    There are guys 5"11 165 that can throw 95 mph.    Its the same as homerun hitters.   Size can help but it hardly means everything.     Besides which May seems to be in that 93 mph range which puts him over 2mph above  the league average and over 2mph above the average of the WS champion Giants.   In addition, his strikeout totals tell me he isn't the typical guy with low 90's fastball.  He obviously has stuff which I am more concerned with.    Nick Blackburn could touch 95 mph with his fastball at the end.  Didn't mean much.   What I noticed about May last year was that his waste pitches were truly waste pitches.   They didn't even tempt the batters which just gave them a free ball.   I wouldn't mind if his strikeout totals dropped a little bit if it meant he got more easy outs by making hitters chase a little bit more when ahead in the count.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, May can hit 95 at times, but he'll sit 91-93 most of the time... That he's 6-5 has little to do with it. Every arm is different. 

 

I keep bringing it up, but his walk/K/IP splits from his first 3 MLB starts to his final 7 starts tell the whole story for me... night and day.

 

And, Rick Anderson deserves a ton of credit for the change. May gave him a lot of credit when I talked to him at Twins Fest, mechanically and mentally

[DocBauer]

May is my choice over Meyer, just barely, due to his ML time last season. There are a lot of guys who look good and fool people for a start or two, and then reality sets in. May did what you hope for, he settled down, learned and improved. Really, he should be that much better overall this season. A little better pitch economy, a few less walks...which is kind of the same thing to a degree...and I could see him as an IP boss and very solid #3 guy. Better than that? Hmmmm....dont know.

[Kwak]

I wish I was wrong, but I firmly believe that Santana, Nolasco, Gibson and Hughes begin the season as the anchor four and Milhone or Pelfrey are a "spot starting" 5th guy.  Quite likely there will be one or more significant changes, but that's how I see the rotation on Day 1.  May, will begin in Rochester or extended Spring Training.

[nater79a]

I wish I was wrong, but I firmly believe that Santana, Nolasco, Gibson and Hughes begin the season as the anchor four and Milhone or Pelfrey are a "spot starting" 5th guy.  Quite likely there will be one or more significant changes, but that's how I see the rotation on Day 1.  May, will begin in Rochester or extended Spring Training.

 

Extended spring training? No reason for him to go there. If he doesn't make the 25-man he'd go straight to Rochester.

[Shane Wahl]

Some things:

1. May seems to have the right mental makeup for success at the big league level. He is aware of what he needs to do (comments the past two seasons, for instance). I think he will succeed.

 

2. I wouldn't bother too much with thinking Milone is a better option than May as a fifth starter. I am not sure what that means for Milone, who is certainly a likely better pitcher than, say, Logan Darnell, but I don't like the idea of sending May to AAA.

 

3. If Pelfrey were to somehow when the 5th starter spot instead of May, I will lose my mind. I cannot imagine the travesty of that.

[Shane Wahl]

An aside: Meyer *should* start in the Twins bullpen for 6 weeks, move to the Rochester rotation for about 8 weeks, and then return to the Twins and start for the remainder of the year. 160 innings or so. He would be ready for a full season in 2016. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

Some things:

 

1. May seems to have the right mental makeup for success at the big league level. He is aware of what he needs to do (comments the past two seasons, for instance). I think he will succeed.

 

2. I wouldn't bother too much with thinking Milone is a better option than May as a fifth starter. I am not sure what that means for Milone, who is certainly a likely better pitcher than, say, Logan Darnell, but I don't like the idea of sending May to AAA.

 

3. If Pelfrey were to somehow when the 5th starter spot instead of May, I will lose my mind. I cannot imagine the travesty of that.

IMO, I think the best Twins option regarding Pelfrey would be for him to stay healthy and perform well enough during spring training that some other team in dire need of a back of the rotation starter would take a chance on him.  If so, I wouldn't request or expect a whole lot coming back our way in a trade.

 

Could probably say the same thing about Millone, too.

[h2oface]

May doesn't make any prospect lists except fan based prospect lists. Has his time in the show made him unqualified, and TD and TT and other Twins' bloggers just treat him as an exception?

[h2oface]

I think we should get used to May's up and down performance.  In 2012 and 2013 when he ended with an ERA in the 4.80 and 4.50 range, those were skewed quite a bit by a few bad outings.  In 2013 he had two starts with 8 ER each, and another two with 5 ER.

Great point. It is kind and convenient for some to just consider May's good outings in the show, shine that pile, and say he has earned another chance to be the 5th starter. Nolasco would like one to do that for him, too. But the fact is, I have a really hard time not considering that he gave up 40 earned runs in 45.2 innings pitched in the 10 games he appeared in. All the innings pitched count. I don't see how that earns anything yet, but would still like to see him get the first opening after Meyer gets his first opportunity.

Edited February 12, 2015 by h2oface

[gunnarthor]

May doesn't make any prospect lists except fan based prospect lists. Has his time in the show made him unqualified, and TD and TT and other Twins' bloggers just treat him as an exception?

No, he's be eligible.  I think he made the top 10 in a few team lists but no top 100 anywhere.  He's not really the type of guy to get on a list at this point (although he was ranked before).  Sickels ranked him #7 on our list and called him a darkhorse ROY candidate. 

[Platoon]

I wish I was wrong, but I firmly believe that Santana, Nolasco, Gibson and Hughes begin the season as the anchor four and Milhone or Pelfrey are a "spot starting" 5th guy.  Quite likely there will be one or more significant changes, but that's how I see the rotation on Day 1.  May, will begin in Rochester or extended Spring Training.

 

Sadly I agree with you. To answer what's holding May back? Terry Ryan! May doesn't have to beat out Milone, Pelfrey, or Stauffer. They all have to fail miserably for him to get a chance. That seems to be the reality of life for a Twins rookie.

[Seth Stohs]

May doesn't make any prospect lists except fan based prospect lists. Has his time in the show made him unqualified, and TD and TT and other Twins' bloggers just treat him as an exception?

 

May is on our list (And most lists) because he still is a rookie in 2015 (

[Dantes929]

Great point. It is kind and convenient for some to just consider May's good outings in the show, shine that pile, and say he has earned another chance to be the 5th starter. Nolasco would like one to do that for him, too. But the fact is, I have a really hard time not considering that he gave up 40 earned runs in 45.2 innings pitched in the 10 games he appeared in. All the innings pitched count. I don't see how that earns anything yet, but would still like to see him get the first opening after Meyer gets his first opportunity.

I agree with you.  To me his major league season was not good but I am still glad he got the experience.  What earned him the chance to be the 5th starter was his outstanding body of work before his calf injury in the minors.     I didn't really think he was quite back in the groove after taking a month off for that injury.   Time will tell but if he is the back end of a rotation I think he has a fair chance of being one of the best back of the rotation pitchers in the league.    I am not sure Meyer, Milone and May can't outpitch Santana, Gibson and Nolasco.