Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Tim Stauffer

[Seth Stohs]

Last week, we looked at a couple of the Twins fifth starter candidates, Mike Pelfrey and Alex Meyer. This week we will continue to look at the Twins fifth starter candidates. Today, we will take a look at one of the newest pitchers in the Twins organization, Tim Stauffer.The Background

 

Just before the holidays, the Twins signed 32-year-old, right-handed pitcher Tim Stauffer to a one-year contract worth $2.2 million. Though he has worked out of the San Diego Padres’ bullpen the past two seasons, he was told that he would be given an opportunity to start. Was that just something he was told by the Twins to get him to sign with them, or will he really be given a shot to leave Ft. Myers as the team’s fifth starter? Well, fortunately pitchers and catchers report in less than two weeks, so we’ll find out what kind of opportunity he really gets.

 

Stauffer was the first-round pick of the Padres in 2003. He was the fourth overall pick out of the University of Richmond. During his first professional season (2004), he started in High-A and pitched at three levels. By mid-May of 2005, he had made his major league debut with San Diego. He pitched mostly in AAA in 2006 and 2007.

 

Unfortunately, he had shoulder surgery and missed the entire 2008 season and almost half of the 2009 season. He returned to the Padres and made 14 starts that year. In 2010, he posted a 1.85 ERA, mostly out of the Padres bullpen. That led to his best seasons, 2011, when he made 31 starts. He went 9-12 with a 3.73 ERA in 185.2 innings. He was set to be the 2012 Opening Day starter, but instead he had surgery on his flexor tendon and made just one appearance all year. And that brings us to the 2013 season and he’s been a pretty solid bullpen performer the last two years. He combined to go 9-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He’s also struck out 131 batters in 134 innings.

 

What is he?

 

Stauffer is a typical, standard, middle-of-the-road, back-of-a-rotation starting pitcher in terms of his stuff. He has a good mix of pitches. His average fastball sits between 90 and 91 mph, and he throws it a little over half the time. He has added a cutter in the mid-80s which helps him get a lot of ground balls. His change-up sits around 80 mph, so it’s a good velocity difference from the fastball. He also has a slow curveball in the low-70s that he doesn’t throw a ton. Parker went into great details on what Stauffer is and what he throws in December. Be sure to read that here.

 

He needs to have very good control, and his career walks per nine average is at 3.0, which is really average. His career strikeout rate is 6.8 per nine, which again, is very average.

 

In other words, if he were to be the Twins 5th starter, and last the whole year, he would probably be... OK.

 

Stauffer Percentage

 

The hope, if Stauffer were named fifth starter, would be that he could work 185 innings like he did in 2011. Well, that may not actually be the goal. Stauffer, or others mentioned in this fifth starter debate, would presumably be just a stop gap. The bigger goal may be to have Trevor May or Alex Meyer fully ready for the role before midseason. Stauffer would then fall back into the Anthony Swarzak role. He’d be capable of pitching in long relief or 7^th inning situations.

 

If I were to guess the odds that Tim Stauffer begins the season as the Twins fifth starter, I would probably put the odds at less than 1%.

 

 

Previous 5th starter candidate stories:

 

Mike Pelfrey

Alex Meyer

 

Click here to view the article

[Kwak]

The Twins spent a lot of money to ensure that the number of rookie pitchers will be minimized this April.  $2.2 MM for the equivalent of what exists in the organization seems questionable to me.  If he starts--something has gone very wrong.

[nater79a]

I wonder why the Twins told Stauffer that he would be given the opportunity to start if there's almost a zero chance that he will be the guy? Seems like a bad precedent to set with future free agent pitchers and free agents in general.

[Seth Stohs]

I wonder why the Twins told Stauffer that he would be given the opportunity to start if there's almost a zero chance that he will be the guy? Seems like a bad precedent to set with future free agent pitchers and free agents in general.

 

Because he'll be given an opportunity and you never know what will/could happen. Weird things happen. 

[TRex]

Because he'll be given an opportunity and you never know what will/could happen. Weird things happen. 

And at the very least, he will be stretched out for long relief in those early April games where the starters frequently don't make it to the 6th inning.

[Seth Stohs]

Terry Ryan and Rob Antony are as straight-forward as it gets. My guess is that they said that he'd be given an opportunity, but I'm sure they also made it clear that they had Milone and Pelfrey and May and Meyer as well. 

 

That said, the Twins gave him 2.2 million good reasons to come in as well... 

[mikelink45]

I will feel progress is being made when Meyer and May are in the starting rotation and the following year Berrios.  All these older, experienced and low upside fillers are not going to energize the franchise or the future.

[tobi0040]

I am surprised he is lumped in here as a starter candidate.  I am guessing  he is firmly behind Meyer, May, and Milone.  Likely, gulp, Pelfrey as well.

[Seth Stohs]

I am surprised he is lumped in here as a starter candidate.  I am guessing  he is firmly behind Meyer, May, and Milone.  Likely, gulp, Pelfrey as well.

 

I would agree with that completely. However, the Twins continue to say that he is going to be given an opportunity. I think the tone of the article indicates how little I believe that it really could happen. 

[nicksaviking]

If I were to guess the odds that Tim Stauffer begins the season as the Twins fifth starter, I would probably put the odds at less than 1%.

 

 

Rebuttals to Stauffer in the rotation should first consider this.  While I'd guess the percentage is a bit exagerated, I can't see a scenario where Stauffer gets the #5 gig except for a rash of injuries.  Bottom line is, he's an asset as a bullpen arm and he looks like another futile NL reclamation project as a starter. 

 

To me he looks like Anthony Swarzak's replacement and an upgrade at that.  I could see him among the league leaders in appearances, particularly if the Twins can resist the urge of keeping a 13-man pitching staff due to all the veteran starters they have acquired.

Edited February 10, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Willihammer]

If I were to guess the odds that Tim Stauffer begins the season as the Twins fifth starter, I would probably put the odds at less than 1%.

http://tinyirony.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/4lloyd-xmas-take-21.jpg?w=535&h=330

[bird]

I am surprised he is lumped in here as a starter candidate.  I am guessing  he is firmly behind Meyer, May, and Milone.  Likely, gulp, Pelfrey as well.

Yeah, if Stauffer gives us a better chance to win than all of those four guys and Nolasco, I'm moving to Chicago.

[Boom Boom]

I would guess that any team (with the exception of the Padres) that had even tepid intetest in Stauffer would have told him, "sure, we'll see what you can do as a starter in spring training."

[Otto von Ballpark]

Stauffer, or others mentioned in this fifth starter debate, would presumably be just a stop gap. The bigger goal may be to have Trevor May or Alex Meyer fully ready for the role before midseason. Stauffer would then fall back into the Anthony Swarzak role. He’d be capable of pitching in long relief or 7^th inning situations.

This is what bugs me about the Stauffer signing.  We didn't have that great of a bullpen last year, and our biggest offseason bullpen upgrade is already projecting as a Swarzak replacement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To me he looks like Anthony Swarzak's replacement and an upgrade at that.  I could see him among the league leaders in appearances, particularly if the Twins can resist the urge of keeping a 13-man pitching staff due to all the veteran starters they have acquired.

An Anthony Swarzak type won't lead the league in appearances -- that's going to be a higher leverage reliever.  Relief innings, perhaps, but they will mostly be low leverage, so an "upgrade" in performance during them isn't very exciting, particularly with big performance questions remaining in our rotation and top of the bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

An Anthony Swarzak type won't lead the league in appearances -- that's going to be a higher leverage reliever.  Relief innings, perhaps, but they will mostly be low leverage, so an "upgrade" in performance during them isn't very exciting, particularly with big performance questions remaining in our rotation and top of the bullpen.

 

Right, innings, not appearances.  I don't see him as more than the longman/mop-up-guy, but this club always seems to want to indentify one of those early.