Baseball Prospectus LOVES the Twins farm system

[markos]

Baseball Prospectus released their 2015 Top-101 list today. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538

 

Eight Twins made the list, including a few surprise rankings:

 

#1 Buxton   // A little surprising to see him still at #1

#12 Sano   // Moved up 2 spots even with TJ. 

#14 Meyer   // Wow. 7th best pitcher in the minors.

#28 Stewart

#48 Berrios

#70 Gordon

#91 Thorpe   // Another surprise. They must not be concerned about his elbow.

#99 Burdi 

 

Overall, great to see both the unexpected names (Burdi and Thorpe) making the list as well as the expected names ranked so high. I think this is the most pro-Twins list I've seen so far this offseason.

[nicksaviking]

Interesting that they have Kris Bryant all the way down at #5.  I'm not a subscriber so I don't know their reasoning but they must have some dirt on him that other publicatoins do not.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, BP loves the Twins.  Last year they had Thorpe 101.  Jason Parks was their main prospect guy last year but was hired away by the Cubs.  Nice to see the Twins love continue without him.

 

A few surprises, but not necessarily wrong.  Addison Russell #2.  I like that choice (over Correa).  Russell seems more likely to stick at short.  They really like Bundy.  Wisler made their list pretty handily but I think he missed a few other lists.  

 

For the Twins, I think I'm most surprised on how low Gordon is.  

[gunnarthor]

Interesting that they have Kris Bryant all the way down at #5.  I'm not a subscriber so I don't know their reasoning but they must have some dirt on him that other publicatoins do not.

My guess is that they like the shortstops more for defensive purposes.  

[nicksaviking]

 

For the Twins, I think I'm most surprised on how low Gordon is.  

 

Right, it's hard to nitpick considering how well they treated the Twins, but they clearly put a ton of value in the SS position, you'd think he'd be higher by virtue of position alone unless they don't think he'll stick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow. Those are some seriously generous rankings.

[gunnarthor]

Right, it's hard to nitpick considering how well they treated the Twins, but they clearly put a ton of value in the SS position, you'd think he'd be higher by virtue of position alone unless they don't think he'll stick.

They don't have a lot of the drafted guys ranked.  No Kolek at all, Jackson is 68th, Rodon 41, Schwaber at 77 is a bit of a surprise.  Nola and Freeland are in the 60-70 range, too.  They seem to want the draft guys to prove it.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

They don't have a lot of the drafted guys ranked.  No Kolek at all, Jackson is 68th, Rodon 41, Schwaber at 77 is a bit of a surprise.  Nola and Freeland are in the 60-70 range, too.  They seem to want the draft guys to prove it.

 

So Gordon is the 3rd highest 2014 draftee? Not bad.

[nytwinsfan]

Baseball Prospectus released their 2015 Top-101 list today. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538

 

Eight Twins made the list, including a few surprise rankings:

 

#1 Buxton   // A little surprising to see him still at #1

#12 Sano   // Moved up 2 spots even with TJ. 

#14 Meyer   // Wow. 7th best pitcher in the minors.

#28 Stewart

#48 Berrios

#70 Gordon

#91 Thorpe   // Another surprise. They must not be concerned about his elbow.

#99 Burdi 

 

Overall, great to see both the unexpected names (Burdi and Thorpe) making the list as well as the expected names ranked so high. I think this is the most pro-Twins list I've seen so far this offseason.

 

Holy crap.

 

Also, Meyer at 14 is the highest I've seen him anywhere.

[markos]

So Gordon is the 3rd highest 2014 draftee? Not bad.

He is #4. Rodon (41), Nola (60) and Jackson (68) are ahead of him.

[bird]

Wow. Those are some seriously generous rankings.

I agree, but the rest of the division would beg to differ with us:

 

1. Polanco and Rosario are absent for us, but Meadows is absent for Cleveland, Moya for Detroit, Zimmer for KC.

 

2. We have 8 listed, the rest of the division combined has 11.

 

3. We have 5 in the top 50, the rest of the division cumulatively has 4.

 

4. Detroit has one prospect on it, and he's one slot ahead of our 8th guy, Burdi at #99.

 

5. Stewart is #28. Rodon is #41.

[TheLeviathan]

I've always viewed these lists as best seen through a composite and the composite is awfully positive, even if one might be too generous or not generous enough.

[Seth Stohs]

I like this ranking... 

[DJL44]

No Kolek at all.

 

Burdi above Kolek is a surprise

[Steve Lein]

Dang. Definitely a lot of love. Polanco and Gonsalves are the two guys on their Twins Top 10 that didn't make it.

 

Meyer's rank is the most surprising to me. Wonder what the overall thinking there is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Meyer's rank is the most surprising to me. Wonder what the overall thinking there is.

Yeah, while I love seeing Twins prospects highly ranked, I don't get that Meyer ranking. No way would I ever put him that high.

[Secondary User]

Yeah, while I love seeing Twins prospects highly ranked, I don't get that Meyer ranking. No way would I ever put him that high.

Maybe they buy into the "tall guys are late bloomers" ideal.

[nytwinsfan]

Maybe they buy into the "tall guys are late bloomers" ideal.

 

The guy basically just needs to reduce his walk rate a decent amount. That's what the Twins pitching coaches are (were?) known for.  Doing that will also help him get later into games. But honestly, with the bullpen we are likely to have in the coming years, It probably is not the end of the world if he doesn't make it past the 6th inning most games (because of pitch count, not because of poor pitching).

[Secondary User]

The guy basically just needs to reduce his walk rate a decent amount. That's what the Twins pitching coaches are (were?) known for.  Doing that will also help him get later into games. But honestly, with the bullpen we are likely to have in the coming years, It probably is not the end of the world if he doesn't make it past the 6th inning most games (because of pitch count, not because of poor pitching).

 

Honestly, today's baseball is more forgiving of walks.  With an expanded strike zone and K%s up, if you get miss bats, you can get around walks.

[cmb0252]

Did someone from TD hack baseball prospectus and change their list? I'm a huge fan of the Twins system but damn! A lot of Twins love. As a Stewart bandwagoner even I'm surprised they have him at #28. That's even rich for me.

[gunnarthor]

BP had a chat on its list.  From the chat:

 

Herb (Tonawanda): Some people are down on Meyer, Sanchez, and Stephenson due to control/command issues at higher levels. Your rankings seem to indicate you believe you're confident in all sticking as starters long term?

Top 101 Chat: A little more nuanced -- I think the rankings indicate that they have a chance to start OR have a floor that makes them a potentially impactful relief arm almost immediately.

[nytwinsfan]

Also from the same chat:

 

kiper90 (Rochester, NY): Hey Chris & Nick, who do have as some of your favorite Low Minor, high ceiling prospects to keep an eye on for 2015, before their stock gains recognition this season, ex. Tapia last pre-season or Devers by its conclusion?

 

Top 101 Chat: I like what I've heard from some evaluators on Lewin Diaz. I unfortunately didn't get a chance this year to go down to Instructs (prior commitments) to see for myself, but there was some buzz on him. 2015 may be a bit early given where he is, but a name to definitely keep on the radar.

 

 

matt (Virginia beach, va): Who is the highest at BP on stephen gonsalves? How far away is he from this list and what's your personal take on him?

 

Top 101 Chat: I suppose I am the high man on him as I made the call to include him at number 10 on the Twins list this year. If he can continue to show development traction this coming year in full-season, especially with sharpening the consistency of how he finishes his delivery to spot the fastball in the lower tier and get more crisp with his breaking ball, I can see him being in this conversation next off-season.

 

Jack (NYC): Thank you for doing this chat. Which prospects toward the end of the Top 101 or not listed at all in the Top 101 have the highest ceilings or have the opportunity to rocket up the prospect charts?

 

Top 101 Chat: Lewis Thorpe can take a pretty good jump if he continues to show that the uptick in his stuff is real, and can be held over a full workload during the season. The upside can push into the number 2 starter territory. Its early in the development, and we're in the dead of early February, but he's a candidate to have a breakout season for sure.

 

Allen (Minny): How do you guys see Miguel Sano recovering from TJS? Is a move to 1B in his future? Do you guys see all the power coming back and basically starting right back where he was at pre injury? 40 HR upside still in the making?

 

Top 101 Chat: Even pre-TJS there were some thoughts that he'd ultimately move over to first, but we'll have to see how the arm strength returns. Pre-surgery, Sano's arm was a legit 7, and he had made some good progress getting more loose at the position. Its a fighting chance he sticks on the left side. As far as the power, yes, I see that returning pretty quickly, though its going to be interesting how quickly he can shake off the rust from being out of game action for a season. The selectiveness and ability to stay back against good breaking stuff was an area that needed work during his first tour through Double-A, and those aspects are usually something that comes (if they do) with constant repetition.

 

Tony (Edmond, OK): Look into your crystal ball - what does Byron Buxton's best season look like (triple-slash)?

 

Top 101 Chat: .315/.387/.508

 

Mayo (Rochester, MN): Does Nick Burdi have top tier closer upside?

 

Top 101 Chat: I believe so. I know Nick is on that wavelength as well.

[nytwinsfan]

Jeeeeez, Diaz, Minier, Gonsalves,Thorpe, and mystery 2015 Draft 6th pick give me hope that even when the current crop of prospects has largely graduated (except Gordon and Stewart I guess) we'll still have a top tier farm system.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Mayo (Rochester, MN): Does Nick Burdi have top tier closer upside?

 

Top 101 Chat: I believe so. I know Nick is on that wavelength as well.

 

If there's one thing that we know about Burdi - besides the big fastball, crazy slide, etc. - is that he is not at all lacking in confidence. He'd fit that closer role very well.

[jimmer]

'If there's one thing that we know about Burdi - besides the big fastball, crazy slide, etc. - is that he is not at all lacking in confidence. He'd fit that closer role very well.'

 

with relief pitching being the new vague thing, it would have been a good idea to trade Perkins and his friendly contract to get some more prospects before he starts going too far downhill. may have missed that window to get real value for him.

[bird]

'If there's one thing that we know about Burdi - besides the big fastball, crazy slide, etc. - is that he is not at all lacking in confidence. He'd fit that closer role very well.'

 

with relief pitching being the new vague thing, it would have been a good idea to trade Perkins and his friendly contract to get some more prospects before he starts going too far downhill. may have missed that window to get real value for him.

I've thought the same thing, but wonder if the value for elite RP's might be even richer at the trade deadline. We may have some players to dangle out there. Wish it was an historical strength to do this rather than a weakness.

[Seth Stohs]

Or just keep Perkins because he's 1.) good, and 2.) paid fairly for his current role, and 3.) if someone takes his role, he's still not overpaid. I don't want to keep trading guys. I want the team to have as many good players as possible. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I probably would have traded him before his extension as he would have commanded a kings ransome (and closers don't always age well), but at this point, it's done. They could probably still trade him in a year or two if he's performing well and guys like Burdi, Reed, the Joneses, etc. are all up and performing.

[bird]

Or just keep Perkins because he's 1.) good, and 2.) paid fairly for his current role, and 3.) if someone takes his role, he's still not overpaid. I don't want to keep trading guys. I want the team to have as many good players as possible. 

 

Two things we badly need to see: 1. Trades from areas of strength, where clearly we have a higher-ceiling option in the wings. Perkins would not be the candidate, not now. Guys like Fien and Stauffer would be, if Burdi and others are ready. 2. Trading valuable assets towards the top of their value for respectable returns.

 

We haven't seen the former lately because we haven't had excess talent (until now). We haven't seen the latter because to-date Terry Ryan has basically sucked at this.

[jimmer]

Two things we badly need to see: 1. Trades from areas of strength, where clearly we have a higher-ceiling option in the wings. Perkins would not be the candidate, not now. Guys like Fien and Stauffer would be, if Burdi and others are ready. 2. Trading valuable assets towards the top of their value for respectable returns.

 

We haven't seen the former lately because we haven't had excess talent (until now). We haven't seen the latter because to-date Terry Ryan has basically sucked at this.

Perkins is one of few quality trade chips we have and having a quality closer right now is a luxury we don't need.  By the time we need a quality closer again (when we are truly competitive), we should have replacements for him.  If we can get a quality prospect or two for him, we should do it.  The fact that he IS getting paid such a good salary is an advantage for us in trade negotiations (as opposed to Papelbon, for example) and should make him worth more.