Article: Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 11-15

[Nick Nelson]

In the past we have annually highlighted our Top 10 Twins prospects, but because the system is currently so loaded with quality talent, we decided to expand the scope of our list this year, profiling the 20 best players on Minnesota's farm.

 

Earlier this week, Seth ran through our choices for 16 through 20, and today I'll take a look at the players we ranked 11 through 15. These players narrowly missed out on making our Top 10, but any of them could very easily appear in that range for many other organizations throughout the league.

 

One-by-one individual profiles for the Top 10 Prospects will kick off next week.15. Taylor Rogers - LHP

Age: 24

2014 Stats (AA): 145 IP, 11-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 113/37 K/BB

ETA: 2016

 

You won't often see Rogers mentioned among the system's most promising young arms, because he lacks the high-end velocity and gaudy strikeout numbers of some others, but if you ask folks within the organization about pitchers who can help the Twins in the near future, his name is going to come up. The lefty was an 11th-round pick out of the University of Kentucky in 2011, and he continues to advance through the minor-league ranks while showing exceptional poise and polish on the mound. Many questioned how Rogers would perform at the higher levels, but he showed a lot in the Eastern League last year by allowing only four homers in 145 innings while boosting his K-rate. The biggest question is whether his high-80s arsenal will prove too hittable in the majors, especially against right-handed batters.

 

14. Adam B. Walker - OF

Age: 23

2014 Stats (A+): .246/.307/.436, 25 HR, 94 RBI, 78 R, 9/14 SB

ETA: 2016

 

In terms of pure power, Walker ranks with the likes of sluggers such as Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas. He hit some legendary moonshots last year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and won the league's All-Star Home Run Derby contest in June. His father was an NFL running back and his mother was a star college athlete, so the muscular 6'4" Walker has the bloodlines and build that you love to see. Unfortunately, while stepping up to High-A ball, the outfielder saw drops in batting average, OBP and slugging, which many anticipated due to his poor strike zone control and high whiff rate. He'll need to become a more complete hitter in order to have a future as a big-league regular, but the pure power alone makes him worth tracking.

 

13. Stephen Gonsalves - LHP

Age: 20

2014 Stats (Rk/A): 65.2 IP, 4-3, 3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 70/21 K/BB

ETA: 2018

 

In 94 professional innings, Gonsalves has struck out 109 hitters and allowed only 72 hits. It's safe to say that the big 6'5" left-hander has been overwhelming the opposition at the lower levels of the minors, and he doesn't even turn 21 until July. There's not much to quibble about with his results so far, and as a tall southpaw with improving velocity, his projectibility is off the charts. So really, all that's holding Gonsalves back at this point is his limited sample size. If he can put in a full season and maintain his performance in High-A, he'll surely vault into the Top 10 next year and maybe even the Top 5.

 

12. Max Kepler - OF/1B

Age: 22

2014 Stats (A+): .264/.333/.393, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 53 R, 6/8 SB

ETA: 2017

 

When the Twins signed the Berlin native as a 16-year-old back in 2009 with an $800,000 bonus, Kepler was considered to be perhaps the best baseball talent ever to come over from Europe. But it was always known that developing him into a big-league player was going to be a long process. Kepler needed to adapt to living and playing in the United States, and sure enough, he's had his growing pains while rising through the minors. All along, though, he has managed to post solid numbers, and 2014 was another step in the right direction. Although his production was less than dazzling, his AVG/OBP/SLG were all above the Florida State League averages (.257/.325/.371), and the overall numbers mask his second-half improvement: From July 1st through the end of the season, Kepler hit .303/.359/.442 with 19 of his 31 extra-base hits. The biggest stride for the young outfielder was his success against lefty pitchers -- after hitting .117 with a hideous .365 OPS versus southpaws in 2013, he improved to .273 and .691 last year.

 

11. Lewis Thorpe - LHP

Age: 19

2014 Stats (A): 71.2 IP, 3-2, 3.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 80/36 K/BB

ETA: 2018

 

Thorpe sneaked into our Top 10 last year, and based solely on performance, he would have found himself there again this time around. Thorpe had already established himself as a rare commodity with a mid-90s fastball whizzing in from the left side, and he further solidified his legitimacy last year by heading to the Midwest League -- where at 18 he was the youngest player to throw a pitch -- and piling up 80 strikeouts over 71 innings. Thorpe struggled a bit with his control, issuing 4.5 BB/9 to go along with five hit batsmen and eight wild pitches, but the bigger concern is his health. Thorpe felt some pain in his elbow late in the season, and an MRI revealed a UCL sprain. For now, the Twins are taking a "wait and hope for the best" approach, but as we all know, that doesn't always work out. If the young southpaw ends up needing Tommy John surgery, it would obviously set him back substantially.

 

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[youngpadawan]

Is Gonsalves pegged to start in Florida?

[Seth Stohs]

Is Gonsalves pegged to start in Florida?

 

Just 8 starts in Cedar Rapids. I would think he'd spend at least another half-season in Iowa. 

[nicksaviking]

Hardly any HS arms make it out of the Midwest League for the Twins without putting in a full year.  Things have changed though, let's hope Gonsalves gives the decision makers a lot to think about.  I really do hope Gonsalves velocity is "developing."  The numbers look great, but I thought he was throwing harder in HS.  If anyone has info on the history of his velocity I'd love to hear it.  I guess otherwise we'll have to assume it was a case of pitcher friendly radar guns.

 

Speaking of...I'm going to have a hard time considering Rogers an actual prospect.  I guess any player that can make it to the majors should be considered for these lists, but I don't recall Cole DeVries or Matt Fox ever making these things.  I guess he's got the whole "crafty lefty" bit going for him, I just don't buy into that like I used to a decade ago. 

 

Lots of people probably will argue with the Walker ranking.  Not me, it looks about right to me.  I have hopes he can figure out how to take a walk, but at this time, his odds of making the MLB seem to be much less than the three pitchers on this list and due to his inability to get on base, I'd give the German the edge too.

[nytwinsfan]

I've read elsewhere that Gonsalves' problem is primarily with his breaking ball, not his fastball/change/command, which are all average or plus.

 

For instance, this from a year and a half ago notes his "below average curveball": http://www.twinkietown.com/draft-coverage/2013/6/18/4442030/stewart-gonsalves-in-minnesota

 

Similarly, Keith Law just said a few days ago that "Stephen Gonsalves (18) pitched well at two levels -- his last start of the year pushed his low-A ERA up by over a run -- but still doesn't have even a fringy breaking ball to go with his plus split-change."

 

Similarly, Kiley McDaniel discussed his "below average curveball." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

The good news is (at least based on my limited understanding) that usually it is control/command and changeup that are the limiting factor for a starter, not a decent breaking ball. So Gonsalves and the Twins' pitching coaches ought to be able to develop his breaking ball to be at least serviceable.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Speaking of...I'm going to have a hard time considering Rogers an actual prospect.  I guess any player that can make it to the majors should be considered for these lists, but I don't recall Cole DeVries or Matt Fox ever making these things.  I guess he's got the whole "crafty lefty" bit going for him, I just don't buy into that like I used to a decade ago. 

 

 

DeVries and Fox weren't lefties that sat 91-93 and hit 95 with the fastball and have really good breaking pitches too. 

[youngpadawan]

Thanks, Seth. I misunderstood your piece on him. Hopefully if he make a dominating start to the season he will move up to the FSL and join Stewart. I think he has a chance to rival Stewart for the top pitcher in the system after Meyer and Berrios graduate next season.

[Steve Lein]

Hardly any HS arms make it out of the Midwest League for the Twins without putting in a full year.  Things have changed though, let's hope Gonsalves gives the decision makers a lot to think about.  I really do hope Gonsalves velocity is "developing."  The numbers look great, but I thought he was throwing harder in HS.  If anyone has info on the history of his velocity I'd love to hear it.  I guess otherwise we'll have to assume it was a case of pitcher friendly radar guns.

 

I don't think he was throwing harder in HS, but scouts saw all kinds of projection. I seem to remember 87-90 MPH range back then. Believe he's bumped that up a few ticks to be in the 90's, with the potential to continue to grow into the mid-90's.

[Seth Stohs]

Thanks, Seth. I misunderstood your piece on him. Hopefully if he make a dominating start to the season he will move up to the FSL and join Stewart. I think he has a chance to rival Stewart for the top pitcher in the system after Meyer and Berrios graduate next season.

 

Which piece did I write on him? I haven't written about him (other than in the prospect handbook) for awhile. he's a great kid though, works hard, very thoughtful and smart, and he definitely has a chance to be very good. We just need to be patient.

[gunnarthor]

I guess I mostly quibble with the Walker placement.  Until/Unless he fixes his plate discipline, he doesn't project to get out of AA.  That's a huge problem.  I'd take all the guys in the 15-20 ranking above him right now.  Hopefully he destroys AA pitching this year, but right now he is too big a question mark.

 

Love Gonsalves, like many people, and I think he'll be the breakout pitcher this season.  Hopefully he can get a solid breaking ball.   

 

It'll be interesting to see how Kepler progresses this year.  He needs at bats to develop and the Twins have sent him to the AFL twice, so it seems they are still high on him.  Big year for him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I've read elsewhere that Gonsalves' problem is primarily with his breaking ball, not his fastball/change/command, which are all average or plus.

 

 

Very much the truth. Scouts saw very little improvement in his curveball between his sophomore and senior years in high school. That's what dropped him from the first round. The Twins belief (right or wrong) wasn't that he couldn't do it, but that he wasn't getting the proper coaching and that it would improve once he got in the system. I don't think it's progressed as quickly as hoped, but it's obviously far from over...

[lightfoot789]

Lots of people probably will argue with the Walker ranking.  Not me, it looks about right to me.  I have hopes he can figure out how to take a walk, but at this time, his odds of making the MLB seem to be much less than the three pitchers on this list and due to his inability to get on base, I'd give the German the edge too.

I love Joe Mauer and he has a lifetime .401 OBP. That has resulted in him averaging 68 runs scored per season over 11 years and 62 RBI per season. For a guy hitting in the middle of the order, those numbers should be much higher. It is not any fault of his, but results in the fact that he doesn't have 6 or 7 other guys on his team who can do what he does. High OBP players need run producers behind them like Vargas and Sano. Regardless to how much they get on base. The game is about timely hits not just hits and getting on base. Baseball critics crucify Votto because he takes too many BBs in situations where his team needs run production. I'm hoping Walker can learn to get on base more, but I'd rather he have more productive ABs in terms of productive RBI (runner on 3rd and no outs).

[tobi0040]

Very much the truth. Scouts saw very little improvement in his curveball between his sophomore and senior years in high school. That's what dropped him from the first round. The Twins belief (right or wrong) wasn't that he couldn't do it, but that he wasn't getting the proper coaching and that it would improve once he got in the system. I don't think it's progressed as quickly as hoped, but it's obviously far from over...

 

I guess I don't understand why Gonsalves is behind Kepler.  Gonsalves is progressing through the system a year earlier.  Both have projections, but Gonsalves numbers have been dominant, whereas Kepler has had one good year in rookie ball (in just 59 games).  I would argue Gonsalves has a much higher ceiling.

[nytwinsfan]

I guess I don't understand why Gonsalves is behind Kepler.  Gonsalves is progressing through the system a year earlier.  Both have projections, but Gonsalves numbers have been dominant, whereas Kepler has had one good year in rookie ball (in just 59 games).  I would argue Gonsalves has a much higher ceiling.

 

That's certainly a fair point, but on the other side Kepler came from a non-baseball country, and hasn't been playing the game against the same quality of competition as long. He's also dealt with quite a lot of injuries, which arguably have not allowed his potential to fully show. So his ceiling may be higher than we realize.

[Monkeypaws]

DeVries and Fox weren't lefties that sat 91-93 and hit 95 with the fastball and have really good breaking pitches too. 

In the article it says Rogers arsenal sits in the upper 80s. 

 

Who's right?

[tobi0040]

That's certainly a fair point, but on the other side Kepler came from a non-baseball country, and hasn't been playing the game against the same quality of competition as long. He's also dealt with quite a lot of injuries, which arguably have not allowed his potential to fully show. So his ceiling may be higher than we realize.

 

His ceiling could be higher than some think.  I think our scouts are too enamored with the fact that his mom was a figure skater and that we think he is athletic.  My personal opinion aside, most would agree Gonsalves has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter.  The likelihood of him reaching that obviously differs a great deal among them. Kepler will likely profile as a corner OF. So I have a tough time finding a ceiling for him as a corner OF that matches that of a top of the rotation, 6'5 lefty starter.

 

So i have actual production and projection for Gonsalves higher, age favors Gonsalves as well.  Maybe a wash if you buy the country change.  The sample size is small, but I will take a good sample that is small over a 5 year, relatively mediocre sample.

Edited February 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[Rosterman]

This is the year that the above five either stay a Top Prospect or become a minor league free agent AAAA guys. Rogers has the chance to be a spot starter in reserve, except the Twins have plenty of those right now in Milone and Darnell and Pelfrey and anyone else they can pick-up on the waiver wire. Gonsalves and Thorpe have to stay healthy and hope a bullpen spot opens up. But if they can shine, and play a somewhat closer role in the minors, they become viable tradebait as an add on. Kepler controls his own destiny. This will be his second year on the 40-man, and don't see him even getting a September call-up. Next year he will be at Triple-A, or should be, and then deserving of a call-up to get a taste of the majors. Will he stick, or do the Twins take an $800,000 writeoff. Of course, he can tank, but his clock has already started to tick-tick-tick. Walker is that slugger that also needs to show he can field, so he can be a bench bat at least. I'm curious to see how he adapts this year.

[bird]

DeVries and Fox weren't lefties that sat 91-93 and hit 95 with the fastball and have really good breaking pitches too. 

 

Valid point.

 

Also, DeVries and Fox WERE in fact ranked prospects at one point. DeVries was a mid-20's ranked prospect in AA by some. By the time Fox got to AA, the bloom was off the rose for him because of his injury problems. Granted, the farm system was an about-average one back then.

[Seth Stohs]

His ceiling could be higher than some think.  I think our scouts are too enamored with the fact that his mom was a figure skater and that we think he is athletic.  My personal opinion aside, most would agree Gonsalves has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter.  The likelihood of him reaching that obviously differs a great deal among them. Kepler will likely profile as a corner OF. So I have a tough time finding a ceiling for him as a corner OF that matches that of a top of the rotation, 6'5 lefty starter.

 

So i have actual production and projection for Gonsalves higher, age favors Gonsalves as well.  Maybe a wash if you buy the country change.  The sample size is small, but I will take a good sample that is small over a 5 year, relatively mediocre sample.

 

 

Good discussion. I really like Gonsalves, but I've never read anyone say his ceiling is #1 or #2 starter. That's not to say that he couldn't get there with some development. He's got terrific potential though which is why I like his ranking in the low teens.

 

I don't think anyone makes too big of a deal of his parents being dancers. It's one piece of scouting information. I think his power potential and the strides he took in the 2nd half in Ft. Myers (when healthy and playing every day) and his performance in the AFL remind us that the guy has terrific talent. 

[Seth Stohs]

This is the year that the above five either stay a Top Prospect or become a minor league free agent AAAA guys. Rogers has the chance to be a spot starter in reserve, except the Twins have plenty of those right now in Milone and Darnell and Pelfrey and anyone else they can pick-up on the waiver wire. Gonsalves and Thorpe have to stay healthy and hope a bullpen spot opens up. But if they can shine, and play a somewhat closer role in the minors, they become viable tradebait as an add on. Kepler controls his own destiny. This will be his second year on the 40-man, and don't see him even getting a September call-up. Next year he will be at Triple-A, or should be, and then deserving of a call-up to get a taste of the majors. Will he stick, or do the Twins take an $800,000 writeoff. Of course, he can tank, but his clock has already started to tick-tick-tick. Walker is that slugger that also needs to show he can field, so he can be a bench bat at least. I'm curious to see how he adapts this year.

 

Remember that Kepler will have a fourth option year, so I don't think the clock is ticking terribly quickly. It's definitely not ticking on Thorpe and Gonsalves. They have lots of time. And Rogers doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster until after the 2015 season, so there's really no rush for him either. 

[gunnarthor]

His ceiling could be higher than some think.  I think our scouts are too enamored with the fact that his mom was a figure skater and that we think he is athletic.  My personal opinion aside, most would agree Gonsalves has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter.  The likelihood of him reaching that obviously differs a great deal among them. Kepler will likely profile as a corner OF. So I have a tough time finding a ceiling for him as a corner OF that matches that of a top of the rotation, 6'5 lefty starter.

 

So i have actual production and projection for Gonsalves higher, age favors Gonsalves as well.  Maybe a wash if you buy the country change.  The sample size is small, but I will take a good sample that is small over a 5 year, relatively mediocre sample.

I believe his mom was in ballot, not skating.

 

Gonsalves seems to have a #3 ceiling, not a 1 or 2.  He might have one plus pitch (and it might not be plus) and is developing other stuff to go with it.  That's a #3 starter.  And McDaniel, Sickels and Klaw (IIRC) all had Kepler ahead of Gonsalves.  (Personally, I had Gonsalves ahead, too).  

[bird]

I believe his mom was in ballot, not skating.

 

Yeah, I think that's right, gunnarthor. I heard she was in charge of re-affixing the chads to the ballots down there.

[nicksaviking]

DeVries and Fox weren't lefties that sat 91-93 and hit 95 with the fastball and have really good breaking pitches too. 

 

I wasn't comparing which arms they threw with, just comparing what appeared to be their lack of upside and ability to pitch well in the minors even when all evidence points to them not having the stuff to be effective at the MLB level.  If his velocity is really as you say and he can start missing a good deal of bats, I'd be thrilled to change my opinion on him.

[nicksaviking]

 I'm hoping Walker can learn to get on base more, but I'd rather he have more productive ABs in terms of productive RBI (runner on 3rd and no outs).

 

It won't matter how he hits with men on base, he's never going to get called up if he doesn't start taking walks. A lot more walks.  He'll never get a chance to prove critics like myself wrong except perhaps for some token September call up when he's 26 when fans look at his minor league HR numbers and call to see him just for the hell of it.  Bernardo Brito part II.

Edited February 5, 2015 by nicksaviking

[gunnarthor]

I believe his mom was in ballot, not skating.

 

Yeah, I think that's right, gunnarthor. I heard she was in charge of re-affixing the chads to the ballots down there.

 http://data.whicdn.com/images/22695004/futurama-fry-meme-generator-not-sure-if-i-m-stupid-or-just-tired-098148_large.jpg

[Shane Wahl]

Rogers dwarfs the likes of DeVries. And I wasn't initially high on Rogers at all. He still might end up being an improved Brian Duensing, but whatever.

 

I hope they push Walker to AA. Angel Morales stagnated big time in Fort Myers and the Twins waited too long to push him through to see if he could adjust and move on well. 

 

Gonsalves is going to be legitimate. Ironing out a third pitch is not a huge issue for where he is at right now. 

 

Seth: I don't think a lot of people understand the option situation for Kepler, so tell us that again. It was only clear in the Prospect Handbook. I had never seen that information before. 

[nater79a]

Which piece did I write on him? I haven't written about him (other than in the prospect handbook) for awhile. he's a great kid though, works hard, very thoughtful and smart, and he definitely has a chance to be very good. We just need to be patient.

 

Seth- I think youngpadawan was referring to the profile that Nick wrote on Gonsalves thinking you wrote it:

 

"If he can put in a full season and maintain his performance in High-A, he'll surely vault into the Top 10 next year and maybe even the Top 5."

[tobi0040]

I believe his mom was in ballot, not skating.

 

Gonsalves seems to have a #3 ceiling, not a 1 or 2.  He might have one plus pitch (and it might not be plus) and is developing other stuff to go with it.  That's a #3 starter.  And McDaniel, Sickels and Klaw (IIRC) all had Kepler ahead of Gonsalves.  (Personally, I had Gonsalves ahead, too).  

 

I guess what I see is a few disconnects.  The guy has only one pitch, but has put up, at 18 in rookie leagues:

 

28 IP, .95 ERA, and 39 K. 

 

Then as a 19 year old in E-Town and Low A 

 

65 IP, 3.02 ERA, 70 K.  In total, a 10.5 K and 3.1 BB per 9.

 

Seems like really good numbers with just one pitch. 

 

So if you start with those numbers and velocity and improve the breaking ball, it seems like he could have a higher ceiling than a #3 starter.  Projecting anything of value out of Kepler certainly involves a lot of improvement upon what we have seen thus far.

Edited February 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[nytwinsfan]

I guess what I see is a few disconnects.  The guy has only one pitch, but has put up, at 18 in rookie leagues:

 

28 IP, .95 ERA, and 39 K. 

 

Then as a 19 year old in E-Town and Low A 

 

65 IP, 3.02 ERA, 70 K.  In total, a 10.5 K and 3.1 BB per 9.

 

Seems like really good numbers with just one pitch. 

 

So if you start with those numbers and velocity and improve the breaking ball, it seems like he could have a higher ceiling than a #3 starter.  Projecting anything of value out of Kepler certainly involves a lot of improvement upon what we have seen thus far.

 

My understanding is that both his fastball and changeup are solid, just not his curveball.

[Shane Wahl]

I think Gonsalves has his fastball and a changeup already. Maybe I am wrong.