Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Mike Pelfrey

[laloesch]

seriously doubt Meyer makes the team out of spring training in any capacity.

 

Not so sure on that one.  He had a very good year at AAA last season.

[JB_Iowa]

New Manager.

 

New Pitching Coach.

 

Can we at least give them a chance to evaluate before they negotiate with the FO over who will be the 5th starter??

[jimmer]

Not so sure on that one.  He had a very good year at AAA last season.

Did he have a very good year in AAA?  His Ks were impressive, but his walks were a big flashing red warning light and his WHIP wasn't great either.  His ERA wasn't overly impressive either. Perhaps you can put those numbers into context, because it's certainly possible I'm missing something.

[tobi0040]

Did he have a very good year in AAA?  His Ks were impressive, but his walks were a big flashing red warning light and his WHIP wasn't great either.  His ERA wasn't overly impressive either. Perhaps you can put those numbers into context, because it's certainly possible I'm missing something.

 

I find it interesting.  Nobody cares that he had 3.7 BB's per 9 in 2013.  It jumps to 4.4 the next year, the equivalent of 10 additional walks across 130 IP and it becomes a huge issue.

 

I think we have to be careful with both Meyer and May. I think the Twins are used to these command and control guys that dont' strike anyone out. Those are the types of guys that can't walk anyone. The margin for error for Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn is rather low. But when Meyer is striking out 10+ guys per 9, giving up 7.5 to 8 hits per 9, and averaging .5 HR's per 9 then the additional 10 walks need some further analysis.  Guys that miss bats and rarely get squared up tend to strand runners.

 

Please don't think I don't care about the walks at all.  I just think an adjustment needs to happen and we could look at this a little differently with these types of pitchers

Edited February 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

I find it interesting.  Nobody cares that he had 3.7 BB's per 9 in 2013.  It jumps to 4.4 the next year, the equivalent of 10 additional walks across 130 IP and it becomes a huge issue.

 

 

I'm not sure that's fair, at least in regards to me.  With this team so completely heck bent against walks, (seemingly a team point of pride even at the expense of BAA/OBPA/OPSA), I would just think that the Twins see that and think maybe he needs more time to get that under control.

 

I remember Boof being a K guy too with a similar ERA in AAA and a similar WHIP. Of course the strike zone has expanded so maybe it's less of an issue now.

Edited February 5, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's not really fair. Going into last spring, people on this board had convinced themselves that Gibson had zero chance of making the rotation out of ST because the Twins already had "their guy" chosen on March 1.

Last spring the competition was much less.  Actually a few of the chief competitors (Worley & Diamond) had already been demoted to AAA the previous summer, and none of the options were guaranteed as much as Milone's $2.8 mil, much less Pelfrey's $5.5 mil.

 

I think many of us under-rated Gibson's chances of making the team last spring.  Doesn't mean this spring's prospects don't have a much harder hill to climb.

[tobi0040]

I'm not sure that's fair, at least in regards to me.  With this team so completely heck bent against walks, (seemingly a team point of pride even at the expense of BAA/OBPA/OPSA), I would just think that the Twins see that and think maybe he needs more time to get that under control.

 

I remember Boof being a K guy too with a similar ERA in AAA and a similar WHIP. Of course the strike zone has expanded so maybe it's less of an issue now.

 

I struggle with the Boof and Meyer comp.  I just looked up Boof's minor numbers, he had a career 3.94 ERA.  His stuff just wasn't as good.

 

I just think Meyer could give up 8 hits per 9 and 4 BB per 9 and that would be an issue.  But a guy that gives up 10 hits per 9 and 3 BB per 9 can be promoted.  We need to look at WHIP, then factor in that BB's are actually better than hits on a 1 to 1 basis, as hits can go for multiple bases and runners advance further on hits.  Then also layer in the relationship between strand rates and k rates.    If you do that, a slightly higher BB rate for guys like Meyer and May is not the end of the world.

Edited February 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

Last spring the competition was much less.  Actually a few of the chief competitors (Worley & Diamond) had already been demoted to AAA the previous summer, and none of the options were guaranteed as much as Milone's $2.8 mil, much less Pelfrey's $5.5 mil.

 

I think many of us under-rated Gibson's chances of making the team last spring.  Doesn't mean this spring's prospects don't have a much harder hill to climb.

Sure, but there's also a new manager and we have no idea how he views the rotation. I find it really unlikely that Molitor is going to come out of the gates with a good ol' boy attitude about the roster.

 

If anything, I think he'll put too much stock in ST performance because he's going to feel obligated to field the best team possible out of the gate.

 

I think we all fall into the rut of assuming that the team will be managed similarly because Gardenhire was around for so long (as long as many here have been Twins fans).... I know I find myself constantly checking built-in assumptions about the roster before I remember that Ron Gardenhire is no longer the manager.

 

We have no idea what Molitor is going to do.

[Dr. Evil]

A lot of this stuff seems to work itself out in spring training. Somebody is going to tweak a hammy and go on the DL for a week or two. Somebody is going to be just horrible. Somebody will be the real deal etc....etc.... 

 

Personally, I think they will go with Milone as the 5th starter in the beginning.

 

Pelfrey has too much to prove to start off at anything other than AAA IMO. I would like to see him convert to reliever in AAA considering his durability issues. Perhaps he could emerge as a decent reliever in time.

 

I suspect either Milone or Nolasco will flop and May will replace one of them 1 month in to the season.

 

May and Meyer will likely begin at AAA and remain in a starting role as opposed to moving to the pen in the majors.

 

Not saying this is what I want to happen. Just sayin I think it's a reasonable prediction of what might happen.

[nicksaviking]

I struggle with the Boof and Meyer comp.  I just looked up Boof's minor numbers, he had a career 3.94 ERA.  His stuff just wasn't as good.

 

I just think Meyer could give up 8 hits per 9 and 4 BB per 9 and that would be an issue.  But a guy that gives up 10 hits per 9 and 3 BB per 9 can be promoted.  We need to look at WHIP, then factor in that BB's are actually better than hits on a 1 to 1 basis, as hits can go for multiple bases and runners advance further on hits.  Then also layer in the relationship between strand rates and k rates.    If you do that, a slightly higher BB rate for guys like Meyer and May is not the end of the world.

 

Right, WHIP is a terrible measurement.  Anything that gives a silly little walk the same weight as a HR probably shouldn't be taken too seriously.

[jimmer]

Anything that gives a silly little walk the same weight as a HR probably shouldn't be taken too seriously.

Like OBP does and by extension OPS? Do those deserve to be taken at least somewhat seriously, or can they all be blown off too?

 

yes, it's a imperfect stat for sure, like most any other stat (some more than others). the walks per 9 IP stands out in his case though, and in Meyer's case less than 10% of the hits he gave up were HR, so he is still giving up too many hit and walks per 9IP, especially the walks part (for a team that seriously hates pitchers to walk batters to the point of obsession).  

 

And that was the whole point.  We were talking about why he likely wouldn't make the 25 man roster out of ST. I don't see the Twins looking at almost 4 1/2 walks per 9 IP and saying, yup he's ready.  They'll at least keep him down long enough to get service time considerations and they can use the control issues as a reason.

Edited February 5, 2015 by jimmer

[Shane Wahl]

The truth is that very few organizations would have a Meyer and not put him in the starting rotation to start 2015.

[Kwak]

Apparently the FO wasn't willing to stick their neck out and commit to Meyer and May in the rotation.  Else, Santana would't have been signed.

[Boom Boom]

I suspect that Meyer won't debut until June. That leaves May, Milone, and Pelf.

 

Like I've said before, if all three of those guys are bad in ST, Pelf will be their choice.

[TheLeviathan]

I endorse this thread as an attempt to hex Pelfrey's chances at the rotation.  Let's reverse psychology the hell out of this thing and see if it works!

[USNMCPO]

I for one, have no desire to watch Pelf take five minutes between pitches. I am getting old and am not sure I can wait that long. Of course he does help me take a nap between pitches.

[nicksaviking]

Like OBP does and by extension OPS? Do those deserve to be taken at least somewhat seriously, or can they all be blown off too?

 

yes, it's a imperfect stat for sure, like most any other stat (some more than others). the walks per 9 IP stands out in his case though, and in Meyer's case less than 10% of the hits he gave up were HR, so he is still giving up too many hit and walks per 9IP, especially the walks part (for a team that seriously hates pitchers to walk batters to the point of obsession).  

 

And that was the whole point.  We were talking about why he likely wouldn't make the 25 man roster out of ST. I don't see the Twins looking at almost 4 1/2 walks per 9 IP and saying, yup he's ready.  They'll at least keep him down long enough to get service time considerations and they can use the control issues as a reason.

OPS isn't nearly as useless, as it includes slugging percentage which weights the type of hits. A useful WHIP should be the inverse of that. Maybe OBP should take a back seat to more comprehensive stats, but I just don't see much value in a stat that says a guy who gives up 25 HR and 1 BB is the same as a guy who gives up 25 BB and one HR.

 

As noted earlier by a wise poster, BB should be much less of a concern for a strikeout pitcher as they aren't nearly as susceptible to runners moving over on routine grounders and sac flies. If Meyer is going to strike out batters at twice the percentage of, say Gibson, the tolerance for him letting guys get to first should be much, much higher.

[jimmer]

OPS isn't nearly as useless, as it includes slugging percentage which weights the type of hits. A useful WHIP should be the inverse of that. Maybe OBP should take a back seat to more comprehensive stats, but I just don't see much value in a stat that says a guy who gives up 25 HR and 1 BB is the same as a guy who gives up 25 BB and one HR.

 

As noted earlier by a wise poster, BB should be much less of a concern for a strikeout pitcher as they aren't nearly as susceptible to runners moving over on routine grounders and sac flies. If Meyer is going to strike out batters at twice the percentage of, say Gibson, the tolerance for him letting guys get to first should be much, much higher.

Except that you specifically said, in your argument against WHIP, 'Anything that gives a silly little walk the same weight as a HR probably shouldn't be taken too seriously.'

 

And 'anything' includes OBP and OPS.  But now you say a stat that does that is okay because it also does something you like. Unfortunately, OPS isn't that great because it doesn't properly weigh OBP (too little value) and, therefore, wRC+ is better. 

 

Additionally, I never said WHIP WAS a great stat, It's just a quick rough stat. It's not great, but it's not worthless. I did say that all stats have their issues, so one can take shots at most any stat and say it's useless or silly, or whatever jabs they feel like using,depending on how they want it to fit their argument at the time.

 

TRUTH is, the TWINS have real issues with their pitchers walking guys.  They take pride in not doing that.  THAT is indisputable.  I NEVER said I agree with that obsessive philosophy, did I?  Did I say if it were up to me, they shouldn't have him on the 25 man out of ST? No, I never said that.  I wanted him up LAST year. But, he walks almost 4.5 guys per 9IP.  Take that and the service time issue, and I doubt he makes the team out of ST because the TWINS will take that into account.

 

and I liked the 'a wise poster' comment.  I get it. I love little shots like that.

Edited February 6, 2015 by jimmer

[ashbury]

...

As noted earlier by a wise poster,

...Additionally, I never said WHIP WAS a great stat, It's just a quick rough stat. It's not great, but it's not worthless. I did say that all stats have their issues, so one can take shots at most any stat and say it's useless or silly, or whatever,depending on how they want it to fit their argument at the time.

 

Moderator's note: Both of you please tone down the personal attacks a notch, and then another notch again.

[jimmer]

anyone know Meyer's swinging strikeout rate as opposed to strikeouts where the guy looked at strike 3?

[nicksaviking]

Moderator's note: Both of you please tone down the personal attacks a notch, and then another notch again.

I don't see an attack. Another poster previously said something I agreed with but instead of looking through all the posts again I instead anomalously paid him or her a compliment.

 

I don't like WHIP, and because of the discourse I now am questioning my belief in OBP, so there has been some progress here I guess. I never felt any hostility from my counter part, he seemed civil from my perspective. I apologize if I somehow didn't sound the same.

[Rosterman]

Whew.

 

You got four main spots locked up, but anything can happen. One of them can tank in spring training and make you wonder, but the one closest to being on the bubble would be Gibson, who might just still have an option year. Otherwise, you won't cut Santana, Hughes or Nolasco because of salary. Any of them could start the season, though, on the dl.

 

Somewhere in the land of "we need a third catcher" is that voice that says "we need a left-handed starter." Well, the main choices are Milone or Darnell. Neither makes you want to buy a ticket to see them pitch.

 

Of course, if you don't mind going with five righties, you give the ball to Pelfrey, the $5.5 million arm. Remember, folks, this is a guy coming off Tommy John surgery who fast-tracked himself in 2013. He had some good outings, some abd outings. That the Twins HAD to pay what they did, and for two years instead of one and an option...well, Pelfrey is better at sleight-of-hand than Cuddyer. Also remember, this is the guy the Twins WANTED instead of Humber when they shipped Santana to the Mets. I'm not saying who IS the better, but I really don't want to see Pelfrey in the rotation OR the bullpen if he doesn't dazzle in spring training.

 

Take the loss and let him walk.

[tobi0040]

Jimmer,

 

I looked at fangraphs and could not find that data.

 

Roster man,

 

Love the thought. Enough with the scholarships. I hope that a condition to molitor accepting the job was under the premise that he will be given te best players, while specifically calling out pelfrey as an example of a scholarship. One can hope.....

[nicksaviking]

  Also remember, this is the guy the Twins WANTED instead of Humber when they shipped Santana to the Mets.

And sadly that was the correct assessment. Time to start refreshing our Bill Smith apologies.

[jimmer]

Jimmer,

 

I looked at fangraphs and could not find that data.

 

Roster man,

 

Love the thought. Enough with the scholarships. I hope that a condition to molitor accepting the job was under the premise that he will be given te best players, while specifically calling out pelfrey as an example of a scholarship. One can hope.....

which stuff specifically?  Edit.  Oh, the info I asked for earlier.  Thanks

Edited February 6, 2015 by jimmer

[Steve Lein]

I find it interesting.  Nobody cares that he had 3.7 BB's per 9 in 2013.  It jumps to 4.4 the next year, the equivalent of 10 additional walks across 130 IP and it becomes a huge issue.

 

I think we have to be careful with both Meyer and May. I think the Twins are used to these command and control guys that dont' strike anyone out. Those are the types of guys that can't walk anyone. The margin for error for Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn is rather low. But when Meyer is striking out 10+ guys per 9, giving up 7.5 to 8 hits per 9, and averaging .5 HR's per 9 then the additional 10 walks need some further analysis.  Guys that miss bats and rarely get squared up tend to strand runners.

 

Please don't think I don't care about the walks at all.  I just think an adjustment needs to happen and we could look at this a little differently with these types of pitchers

 

1 million times this.

 

High strikeout pitchers can get away with a lot of walks.

 

He was also 7th among all qualified pitchers in the International League in ERA. That tells me the walks weren't a major issue.

[jorgenswest]

I'm definitely not one who believes that spring training performance should be a big factor in decision-making, but I don't know how else they settle this.

 

There is a difference between spring training performance and spring training stats. Spring training stats are meaningless. They should not be kept or reported. Spring training performance is about the velocity, movement and command of his pitches. The skill of the staff in assessing his ability to contribute to the team based on the way he throws as seen in work outs and games is critical in determing whether he is released or wins the fifth starter spot.

[jorgenswest]

Yes.  I want Pelfrey nowhere near the rotation, but he certainly has the pedigree and the velociy (and lack of secondary pitches) that has turned many highly rated or drafted busts into solid if not exceptional relievers.  The Twins should already be well acquainted with this concept, they've basically gotten their closers for the past 2 1/2 decades using this idea.

I don't see the pedigree. His performance drops much more than the norm with runners on base. Any relief role would need to be one that starts an inning. Mid game relievers don't have that luxury. I also wonder if he has the kind of arm that can pitch on back to back days.

 

Suppose he puts up good numbers in low leverage relief appearances. What is the upside for the Twins? He gets a year to adjust to the role and is somewhere else in 2016. Low leverage relievers won't be in demand at the deadline. No reason to keep him in hopes of trade value. They just lose the opportunity to give those innings to someone with upside.

 

Best case- Pelfrey wins the fifth starter job and puts up a league average ERA before he is traded.

 

Worst case- he plays out the year as a low leverage reliever before hitting fee agency

 

Unthinkable case- he gets extended after a few months of good relief numbers.

 

Liveable case - he doesn't win the fifth starter job and is released

[nicksaviking]

I don't see the pedigree. His performance drops much more than the norm with runners on base. Any relief role would need to be one that starts an inning. Mid game relievers don't have that luxury. I also wonder if he has the kind of arm that can pitch on back to back days.

 

Suppose he puts up good numbers in low leverage relief appearances. What is the upside for the Twins? He gets a year to adjust to the role and is somewhere else in 2016. Low leverage relievers won't be in demand at the deadline. No reason to keep him in hopes of trade value. They just lose the opportunity to give those innings to someone with upside.

 

Best case- Pelfrey wins the fifth starter job and puts up a league average ERA before he is traded.

 

Worst case- he plays out the year as a low leverage reliever before hitting fee agency

 

Unthinkable case- he gets extended after a few months of good relief numbers.

 

Liveable case - he doesn't win the fifth starter job and is released

 

As far as his pedigree is concerned, he was the 9th overall pick in 2005 and was BA's 20th ranked player in 2007, but he's not really living up to expectations as a starter.

 

He hasn't been good with men on base, but Perkins, Nathan and Guardado were much worse with men on base before they were converted to the pen as well (full disclosure, Aguilera was better with men on base as a starter).  So unless there is an actual issue with pitching from the stretch, and there may be, the issues with runners on base is most likely related to repetoir or some mental issue.  We've seen many times that many problems can be fixed by turning a 93-95 MPH fastball into a 96-98 MPH fastball.  Maybe he can't increase velocity, but I don't think there's anything to lose by trying to find out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He hasn't been good with men on base, but Perkins, Nathan and Guardado were much worse with men on base before they were converted to the pen as well (full disclosure, Aguilera was better with men on base as a starter).  So unless there is an actual issue with pitching from the stretch, and there may be, the issues with runners on base is most likely related to repetoir or some mental issue.  We've seen many times that many problems can be fixed by turning a 93-95 MPH fastball into a 96-98 MPH fastball.  Maybe he can't increase velocity, but I don't think there's anything to lose by trying to find out.

Yeah, I don't put much stock in his starting numbers with MoB. Relief is an entirely different role and with the increased velocity (hopefully, anyway) and increased aggression (hit this fastball, I dare you, hit this fastball, I dare you) from the bullpen, he could profile as a very different pitcher in a few months.

 

I don't care much where Pelfrey ends up, I only hope the Twins do what's best for the team in 2015.