Article: What Happened To Joe Mauer?

[tobi0040]

Lots of theories in here.  Everyone seems to have one of Joe.  My eye test is that Joe seems to pull balls on the ground and go the other way more on line drives.  Seems like to me the shifts in the OF and INF took away hits from him. 

The data Parker supplied, balls getting through the right side of the infield and BA on line drives to the OF seem to support this.  If true, Joe would need to be a little less predictable. If we needed anyone on our team to make a hitting adjustment with the entire off-season to do it, I would pick Joe Mauer.

[KGB]

Here's an article from 1/21/14 about last years training:

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_24962055/minnesota-twins-joe-mauer-feeling-good-taking-it

 

"It varies every year," Mauer said of his offseason routine. "This year I wanted to start off the year making sure I got over this concussion and took the time. It's going pretty good heading into the year."

 

Mauer, who has been symptom-free since late October, typically doesn't do much hitting in the offseason in order to conserve energy for the long grind ahead.

 

"I haven't swung the bat yet," Mauer said. "Last year was different because of the (World Baseball Classic), but every year it's been later and later. I'll get to camp, and I think we'll have plenty of time to get ready for the season."

[troyhobbs]

Love Mauer but don't believe he is vital to the Twins resurgence at this point, wonder if the Twins would be better off paying a decent portion of his salary to play somewhere else and stock up some more youth in return...?  Also, doubt his health issues suddenly disappear as he progresses through his 30's.

[Steve Lein]

That said, Joe HAS to start swinging at more first pitch strikes.  He HAS too!  Mauer is giving away WAY too many first pitch strikes, many of which go straight down broad way.  He should be crushing those pitches!

 

He needs to step into the batter's box and take big cuts at those pitches every once in awhile.  Not only will it result in more home runs but will reduce the predictability of his at-bats which all end up looking the same.  Changing this dynamic should result in less strikeouts for him and produce more hits.

 

This is one of my issues. And don't get me wrong, Joe has a great approach that definitely has served him well until recently when his K numbers have climbed.

 

The problem I have with that, is that he uses the same approach for every single at-bat. Doesn't matter the situation or the pitcher he is facing. It's almost literally the exact same thing, every time. That's exactly the type of thing pitchers can adapt to, and in some ways have, such as with the first pitch down broadway stuff. If they know that 95% of the time Joe isn't going to swing at it (5% is exactly his career rate for putting first pitches in play), that's a pretty safe bet to get ahead of him 0-1, and quite possibly a direct correlation to that increase in K's.

 

Also with the first pitch strike stuff, it comes up that this almost all of the time, is going to be the best pitch he's going to see in the entire at-bat. It's criminal to me to ignore that, especially if it's a situation where there's guys on base to drive in.

 

I'm all for this if he want's to feel out the pitcher in say his first at-bat. But in subsequent at-bats, he shouldn't have to, but still uses this same approach.

 

It's also interesting to me that when Joe does swing at that first pitch, his batting average is the highest of any ball/strike count over his career.

 

I think that putting the ball in play number needs to climb higher than 5% on first pitches the way pitchers are treating him now, and he would benefit greatly from it.

 

All that said, if Joe does bounce back, it's a non-issue. But that's why these questions come up.

[tobi0040]

Love Mauer but don't believe he is vital to the Twins resurgence at this point, wonder if the Twins would be better off paying a decent portion of his salary to play somewhere else and stock up some more youth in return...?  Also, doubt his health issues suddenly disappear as he progresses through his 30's.

 

I just don't see an appetite, on our part or other teams to go through with this transaction.  With that, Mauer will be our 1B for the next four years and I think the closer he is to his career norm of an OPS of .860 versus last years .732 is a big story for turning around the Twins.

 

For example, we are all really hopeful of Sano over Plouffe at 3B.  I would bet the .128 difference between Mauer's career numbers and his 2014 is greater than the difference between Sano and 2014 Plouffe (.751 OPS). That puts Sano at .879 at a break-even.

Edited February 4, 2015 by tobi0040

[Parker Hageman]

My understanding was that last offseason he didn't do much of anything but recover from the concussion symptoms. No regular workout, no picking up a bat until ST started.

 

No, he was working out leading up to the Winter Caravan when he said he his offseason was "very productive". From ESPN.com last November:

 

The Twins announced the switch on Monday for the 30-year-old Mauer, who missed the last six weeks of the schedule recovering from his head injury. He took a foul tip off the mask on Aug. 19. During a conference call with reporters, Mauer said he's feeling fine and symptom-free, having begun his offseason workouts.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yup. This stat from Peter Gammons' site caught my eye: Joe Mauer has the lowest BA in baseball on 0-2 pitches going 2-for-48, hitting .049.

ICK.

 

ICK ICK ICK.

[Seth Stohs]

As Parker (or someone showed), he did swing at more first-pitches in 2014 than ever before.

 

I think a couple of things. I do tend to believe that the shifts hurt not only his doubles production but also a lot of singles to left too... I think moving from the turf of the Metrodome to the grass hurt some, especially on grounders up the middle.

 

The information I found very interesting was when pitchers changed speeds on back-to-back pitches. My initial thought was that it sounded like a possible concussion-related thing. I would think picking up spin and depth perception and all that could be affected by a concussion. That one spoke volumes to me. 

 

I also can't forget the fact that he was a big league catcher for about 10-12 years. Even though he moved to first base, that mileage is still there. 

 

And, of course, he needs to hit Top 3 because of that OBP.

[Shane Wahl]

Mauer is easily going to bounce back with a .315/.405/.430 line. The concussion was an issue. And he just had one of those years. Players come back all the time with years of success after bad years. 

 

Let's just hope it's Santana-Mauer-Arcia vs. righties and Santana-Mauer-Dozier vs. lefties. Mauer remains as an almost prototypical no. 2 batter.

[ken]

Mauer, who has been symptom-free since late October, typically doesn't do much hitting in the offseason in order to conserve energy for the long grind ahead.

 

"I haven't swung the bat yet," Mauer said. "Last year was different because of the (World Baseball Classic), but every year it's been later and later. I'll get to camp, and I think we'll have plenty of time to get ready for the season."

 

See he follow's the Hrbek offseason training model.  For his baseball career, he didn't age very well either.

[Shane Wahl]

Love Mauer but don't believe he is vital to the Twins resurgence at this point, wonder if the Twins would be better off paying a decent portion of his salary to play somewhere else and stock up some more youth in return...?  Also, doubt his health issues suddenly disappear as he progresses through his 30's.

 

He is the focal point for the resurgence of the Twins. He has 5 seasons of good productivity left, at least. He has consistently been an on base machine.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Yup. This stat from Peter Gammons' site caught my eye: Joe Mauer has the lowest BA in baseball on 0-2 pitches going 2-for-48, hitting .049.

 

According to ESPN/TruMedia's data, Mauer finished the with the seventh lowest BA in 0-2 counts at .068 (44 PAs). Jason Heyward at .053 finished with the worst in the game. 

 

One interesting note is that during those 0-2 situations, the most frequent pitch was a fastball up in the zone. This differed from the other seasons. This might be a trend in baseball or something opponents have targeted. Either way, Mauer was not successful against those pitches.

[troyhobbs]

He is the focal point for the resurgence of the Twins. He has 5 seasons of good productivity left, at least. He has consistently been an on base machine.

The focal point for every team would be SP.  Mauer was great in '12 & '13 and the Twins still lost 90+ games. I get that he still has plenty of value but is he really a corner stone, especially when he misses about 40 games/season? I wouldn't advocate swapping him for anything less than a can't miss prospect or multiple high ceiling prospects and think a guy like Vargas or Sano, if he were to move to 1B, could make up for a lot of what they'd lose with Joe.

[jimmer]

which affected his preparation for the season, like Morneau and his laundry list of ailments he had during the offseason prior to 2015 that didn't allow him to prepare properly.

I meant 2005.  I'm guessing everyone knew that, though

[LimestoneBaggy]

One interesting note is that during those 0-2 situations, the most frequent pitch was a fastball up in the zone. This differed from the other seasons. This might be a trend in baseball or something opponents have targeted. Either way, Mauer was not successful against those pitches.

 

Parker, I seem to remember (cough, cough memory/eye test) that Mauer would get pitched down and in the same situation.

[Platoon]

Lots of theories in here.  Everyone seems to have one of Joe.  My eye test is that Joe seems to pull balls on the ground and go the other way more on line drives.  Seems like to me the shifts in the OF and INF took away hits from him. 

The data Parker supplied, balls getting through the right side of the infield and BA on line drives to the OF seem to support this.  If true, Joe would need to be a little less predictable. If we needed anyone on our team to make a hitting adjustment with the entire off-season to do it, I would pick Joe Mauer.

Mauer is as close to a mechanical hitting machine as plays the game. In theory, and likely in practice this makes a shift in the OF towards left, and in the infield middle right even more effective. Basically you can count on him to hit the ball consistently as pitched. I can't believe the endless well hit balls down the LF line that were caught did not impact his production. As for pulling the ball he never has been God at getting air under anything to the right side. It's just not his strong suit.

[jimmer]

Mauer is as close to a mechanical hitting machine as plays the game. In theory, and likely in practice this makes a shift in the OF towards left, and in the infield middle right even more effective. Basically you can count on him to hit the ball consistently as pitched. I can't believe the endless well hit balls down the LF line that were caught did not impact his production. As for pulling the ball he never has been God at getting air under anything to the right side. It's just not his strong suit.

The only thing is, his BABIP last year was nearly identical to his career average (very good) which basically means his hits are falling in line with his career norms.

 

Pitchers really have no reason to pitch him middle in, or in at all, so like you said he hits the pitches where he's pitched, low and away pitches go opposite field.  It does seem like he has been trying to pull more though and when he does this on outside pitches, those are becoming outs.

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Platoon]

Mauer is easily going to bounce back with a .315/.405/.430 line. The concussion was an issue. And he just had one of those years. Players come back all the time with years of success after bad years. 

 

Let's just hope it's Santana-Mauer-Arcia vs. righties and Santana-Mauer-Dozier vs. lefties. Mauer remains as an almost prototypical no. 2 batter.

I have never considered Mauer a 3 hitter. That's kind of odd since your 3 spot usually goes to your best hitter. But you also want more pop in that spot. That said, if my best alternative is Dozier, even in a platoon I would stick with Mauer. As much as I agree he is a true 2 spot hitter, I also have not been able to identify someone to take his 3 hole. Hmm, maybe that's why the Twins have lost over 360 games in the last 4 years?

[Thrylos]

What happened to Joe Mauer?

 

Would there be any concern about Joe Mauer if his slash line was .289/.397/.408?   Well, it was the second half of the season.   He likely was and played hurt for most of the first half.  Nothing to worry about.

 

That's what happened to Joe Mauer...

[Kwak]

Many factors are likely:  1) Defensive shifts;  LF and CF move substantially to their right.  Line drives/fly balls have very little space to fall in LF.  Most teams shift substantially to their left.  SS is virtually behind 2B.  Mauer has two favorite spots LF line 200 ft + in the air, and grounders right over the mound.  Those use to be hits, now they are outs.  2) Expanded K zone; self-explanatory what used to be balls are now strikes.  3) uppercut swing; high fastballs are rugged--reference Arcia and his K-rate around 33%.  Also makes off-speed low and away more effective.  4) Mauer used to have dependable protection (Morneau) behind him--opponents not impressed (yet) by hitter behind Mauer.

[Shane Wahl]

I have never considered Mauer a 3 hitter. That's kind of odd since your 3 spot usually goes to your best hitter. But you also want more pop in that spot. That said, if my best alternative is Dozier, even in a platoon I would stick with Mauer. As much as I agree he is a true 2 spot hitter, I also have not been able to identify someone to take his 3 hole. Hmm, maybe that's why the Twins have lost over 360 games in the last 4 years?

 

Well the 3 spot being the "best hitter" is just old adage gibberish now. The best three batters, overall, should be 1,2, and 4 with your 3 and 5 spots devoted to power guys.

 

I think Dozier there against lefties is pretty solid.

[bird]

I'm intrigued that Joe swung at a whopping 9% of first pitches. I have allergies that prevent me from doing a lot of counting, and I admit it felt like a lower percentage. My question is, of the 91% of pitches he chose not to swing at, what percentage of those were called strikes?

 

The other question I have is, if he's not very good at getting air under the ball when he pulls it, why can't he get better at it? 

[Platoon]

Well the 3 spot being the "best hitter" is just old adage gibberish now. The best three batters, overall, should be 1,2, and 4 with your 3 and 5 spots devoted to power guys.

I think Dozier there against lefties is pretty solid.

 

 

 

I'm intrigued that Joe swung at a whopping 9% of first pitches. I have allergies that prevent me from doing a lot of counting, and I admit it felt like a lower percentage. My question is, of the 91% of pitches he chose not to swing at, what percentage of those were called strikes?

 

The other question I have is, if he's not very good at getting air under the ball when he pulls it, why can't he get better at it?

 

I truly think Dozier's power is questionable. I just don't see him as being any kind of a consistent power guy. But I guess this season will answer that.

 

As for Mauer not getting the ball up towards right field, he never has. He is most comfortable hitting the ball deep in the zone, and when he try's to pull, or is forced to pull he seems to roll over on it. He might just be the reverse of most hitters. For him going the other way is natural, so pulling is just as difficult as another hitter going the other way.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

In the past I think he could get through the zone faster and was able to spray some hits around when he was behind in the count.  But I really thought his bat speed looked slow last year and that was seriously hurting his ability to get around on pitches.

 

I remember reading an article last year about guys with slower bat speeds, and Joe was one of the main players mentioned. The article pointed out that his name was surprising because he was usually one of the faster bat speeds in the past.

 

I believe they used contact vs pitches above 95 mph as an example, and he was one of the worst. Too lazy to find this article though. Guessing we are watching a still great Joe Mauer, but in a decline.

[Dantes929]

The only thing is, his BABIP last year was nearly identical to his career average (very good) which basically means his hits are falling in line with his career norms.

 

Pitchers really have no reason to pitch him middle in, or in at all, so like you said he hits the pitches where he's pitched, low and away pitches go opposite field.  It does seem like he has been trying to pull more though and when he does this on outside pitches, those are becoming outs.

This.  Exactly this.   First half he seemed to be trying to pull and he seemed to be swinging harder.  That is not him.    The ideal for him is for pitchers to say here is our shift, go hit into it because that is where he likes it and he seems to square up a lot more in that spot.    Squaring up a higher % makes up for the fact that a higher % of those squared up are caught.   Net is going to be a .320 average and a .880 OPS.  Only contradiction I have is that pitchers do have a reason to pitch inside.   He just does not square enough of those pitches up to make them pay for it.  I think he does square when they pitch him middle out to make them pay for it regardless of the shift.   The worst of all worlds is what he was doing the first half which was trying to pull the outside pitches.   That has always been true of Morneau, Cuddyer, Plouffe ,etc as well.   Its just that this was the first year it seemed that Mauer fell into that habit as well.

[stringer bell]

Joe Mauer didn't hit at a Hall of Fame level last year, as a matter of fact, he didn't hit at an All-Star level in 2014.  Why?  We've seen four or five theories in this thread and they all might have at least some validity.  We've also seen about as many prospective solutions.  Again, there is probably a grain of truth in the "fixes" offered by Twins Daily commenters. 

 

I'll add my 2 cents worth and maybe offer a free bit of advice.  Mauer wasn't fully healthy for the first half of the season, he also is over 30 and perhaps aged rapidly due to the beating that catchers absorb.  Mauer carries expectations of being more--his size suggests slugger, his demeanor and upbringing suggest hero, and his resumé indicates he has always found a way to be successful.  He seemed to press and get out of his comfort zone, which set off the vicious cycle of pressing, failing and pressing more, which he really hasn't experienced since coming to the big leagues.

 

Mauer is more than a year and a half removed from the concussion, he has a full year as a first baseman and has had time to adjust to the additions to his family.  I think that Mauer has to make some adjustments to again be a top hitter.  1)  Don't be predictable on that first pitch.  Once in awhile be prepared to rip at the first pitch he sees.  2)  Build strength.  Mauer seemed to hit a lot of balls 350 to 380 in the gaps when he needed to hit the ball 15-20 feet further.  His workout program has stressed flexibility over strength, but maybe he needs to modify the plan a bit so that some of those long drives make it over the wall.  3)  Be the man.  Instead of being content to take a walk or ping a single to left, sometimes the best hitter on the team has to try to drive the ball.  In some cases, I think Mauer should get more aggressive and try to drive the ball.  4) Use the entire field more.  It has pained me to see how far outfields shift for Mauer.  If he could get a few balls in the right center gap or down the line, it might result in more hitters' counts and more hits (and extra-base hits) for the three-time batting champion.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

He could try changing shampoos.

[Jham]

I think it's all about bat speed, which usually goes when players get older, and why you often see rapid declines in productivity.  It is exacerbated for Joe because he lets the ball get in so deep.  Once bat speed drops, you have to do one of 3 things to compensate: 1) guess; 2) start earlier; 3) switch to a lighter bat/ choke up.  Most players do a combo of 1 and 2 which is likely why changing speeds was so effective against Joe.  Poor pitch recognition is more often than not, poor bat speed which causes guessing or starting/committing too soon.  (Think Nishioka). Thus, the players that look like they have a problem with breaking balls, actually have trouble catching up to fastballs. (Think Delmon Young).  For the first time I can really remember, Joe looked totally fooled on many off-speed pitches, and simply couldn't catch up to heat.  That's a decline in bat speed.

My advice, swing a lighter stick.  You're not a power hitter anyway.  

[Platoon]

He could try changing shampoos.

A lot of his problems started when he split up with Kemps. Maybe it was the cows after all?

[dbminn]

Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half).  

 

Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.