Article: What Happened To Joe Mauer?

[Parker Hageman]

If the 2015 Minnesota Twins have any hope of contending in the AL Central it requires Joe Mauer's level of offensive productivity to return to his career norm.

 

Certainly a gross oversimplification considering he can’t pitch or cover the outfield but the lineup functions much better when he is healthy and hitting. Fortunately, just last month Mauer told KSTP that “this is the most productive offseason I've had in a long time.”

MOST.

PRODUCTIVE.

OFFSEASON.

EVER*.

You hear that pitchers? Print the World Series tickets now. Plan the parade route. Chisel Mauer’s bust on the MVP trophy. Start the...hold on. Apparently last year Mauer told the Pioneer Press that that winter “has been a very productive offseason” and that offseason’s labor resulted in one of his worst offensive years in his career (outside of his injured 2011). So, wait, are words just meaningless?

 

The accusation here is not that Mauer did not work out and prepare to his fullest ability heading into 2014, but rather something was off which led to the low offensive output relative to his lofty standards. Reviewing his season, there are several notable factors that chipped away at his usually pristine BABIP and eroded his on-base percentage.

 

The Outfield Shift

 

The first was that other teams were positioning themselves to account for Mauer’s opposite field tendencies. Over the last three years his batting average on balls in the air had never dropped below .400 when going the other way and wound up at .330. Still very good overall but that is several fewer hits nonetheless.

 

Download attachment: Mauer_BABIP OF.png

No Hits To The Right

 

Second, Mauer’s ability to get hits when pulling the ball completely fell apart. Again, part of this goes back to the defensive alignment because -- as you can glean from the chart below -- a limited numbers of balls actually got out to the right field area and this allowed the right fielder to shift around. On the other hand, Mauer’s ground ball tendencies when pulling makes for some very busy infielders. From 2009 to 2013, he held a respectable .279 batting average on balls in play on anything he yanked but that dropped to .207 in 2014. The average left-handed hitter was about to post a .289 BABIP when pulling.

 

 

 

 

Download attachment: hit-chart.png

The Whiff

 

The last is his increased strikeout rate. Since 2009 the percent of plate appearances in which he has struck out has gone from 10% to 9% to 11% to 14% to 18% to, finally, 19%.

 

One reason for those increasing rates is a growing number of strikeouts looking. From 2009 through 2011, he struck out looking 27 times total but from 2012 through 2014, he has watched strike three go by 63 times. On the rising figures, Mauer told Pioneer Press’s Charley Walters this year that he attributes it to the umpire’s expanding zone and he’s not wrong. According to Jon Roegele’s research at HardballTimes.com the zone has been fattening up the past six years, particularly in the lower regions of the zone. In spite of having always been in the zone, suddenly pitches that were called balls in 2011 for Mauer are considered strikes in 2014.

 

Of course, that doesn’t explain the rise in strikeouts swinging -- or maybe it does to some degree. Mauer has always been one of the game’s most calibrated individuals and the shifting strike zone may be messing with that aspect. It is possible that Mauer's transition away from catcher has affected his zone calibration as the umpires began to call lower and lower strikes.

 

Adding and Subtracting Speed

 

Here is another data nugget that could be influencing the outcomes mentioned above. Looking at pitch sequencing, an interesting trend for Mauer stands out: When pitchers added and subtracted speed, he struggled mightily last year.

 

This is not a new wrinkle opponents are challenging him with, but now the results are significantly different. For example, from 2009 to 2013, when pitchers followed a fastball with a change-up, Mauer hit .274/.318/.377 on that pitch. Meanwhile in 2014, he turned in a .143/.172/.179 line. On the other hand, if a pitcher tried to go with a fastball after a change Mauer hit .451/.521/.697 from 2009 to 2013. Last year Mauer went just .111/.200/.111.

 

 

 

 

Download attachment: Mauer_Sequencing.png

Naturally this is presented with the small sample size caveat. However, this is an unusual trend for Mauer over the course of the last six years of data. In no other cases did he have any issues in sequencing. It is as if pitchers have figured out a way to throw him off-balance.

 

****

To be fair, Mauer’s offensive numbers were better than the average but deviated from his typical norm. His on-base percentage was still in the top 20 in the league and his OPS+ remained above the league’s average too. Sometimes being critical of Mauer’s performance feels like saying a girl is too pretty.

 

Overall, his contact has been inferior this past year as well. His hard-hit average (.182) hit a six-year low as did his fly ball/line drive distance rate (275 feet), while his foul ball rate hit a high in that time. His in-play percentage was also a new low. In short, he did not make the same high quality contact as he had made in previous years. Part of that may be because he was trying to adjust to the defense or the expanding strike zone while trying to time the pitchers’ offerings. Beyond these elements, Mauer may have been hindered by injuries, age or other things that we cannot know (like perhaps the fumes from his new first baseman’s mitt causes dizziness).

 

We know a lot about what went wrong in 2014 for Joe Mauer. What is unknown is whether this decline is a growing trend or a passing phase.

 

*“in a long time.”

 

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[Dantes929]

The shift is no problem in and of itself.  Since pitchers now try to get him to hit into the shift they throw the ball on the outer half where he usually likes it.   Last year whether the move to 1st base made him think he should try pulling the ball for power or because the shift made him want to hit to the right side Mauer was going away from what makes him great.    By trying to pull he hits weak grounders and strikes out.   He should embrace the shift since he will get those pitches he likes.    Making better contact more often will offset the outs the shift creates.     It appeared to me that he went back to his old ways in the 2nd half with much better results.    IMO, Mauer, like all the hitters should focus on hitting the ball back up the middle and let their natural swing and location of the pitch dictate where the ball is batted.   Do not discount effects the concussion had.   

[Parker Hageman]

The shift is no problem in and of itself.

 

 

To me, it was the least influential of the issues. The OF shift did steal some hits away and may have altered his approach for a while but statistically it was not as significant as the increase in strikeouts or weaker contact. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

To me, it was the least influential of the issues. The OF shift did steal some hits away and may have altered his approach for a while but statistically it was not as significant as the increase in strikeouts or weaker contact. 

Thanks for looking into this, Parker. I never bought into the "the shift is killing Mauer!" sentiment.

 

Sure, he lost some XBH in 2014 and that hurts his slugging percentage quite a bit... But his BA? I don't buy that. He might lose a hit here and there but that doesn't explain away a .050 BA drop.

[Willihammer]

Parker, fans and the Twins have been talking about trying to get Mauer to pull the ball and hit for more power for a while now. I can't find the quotes but I remember last spring there was actually some talk from Gardy and the FO about it. In your estimation, did Mauer try pulling the ball more last year?

[Parker Hageman]

did Mauer try pulling the ball more last year?

 

 

Did he try? Maybe. That might account for some of the strikeouts but in terms of putting the ball into play, his pull rate in 2014 was 23%, lowest in the six-year span. 

 

2014 - 23%

2013 - 33%

2012 - 35%

2011 - 29%

2010 - 27%

2009 - 34%

 

Going back to the sequencing point, Mauer also was pulling more pitches on the outer-half away than before. There appears to be a timing issue in his swing that is different from the 2009 version that may be causing him to roll over on softer pitches away and wind up late on some fastballs up.

[USAFChief]

I think often hitting behind in the count has caught up to him.

 

Stop giving away the first strike in so many ABs.

.

[TheLeviathan]

I think often hitting behind in the count has caught up to him.

 

Stop giving away the first strike in so many ABs.

.

 

In the past I think he could get through the zone faster and was able to spray some hits around when he was behind in the count.  But I really thought his bat speed looked slow last year and that was seriously hurting his ability to get around on pitches.

 

So when you couple that with constantly working from behind in the count, I think you're talking about a recipe for disaster.

[jimmer]

I think all the people saying he needs to be a player he isn't has finally affected his approach.  He's now trying to force the issue as far as run producing and pulling the ball.  As our lineup got weaker in 2013 and then young kids joined in 2014, he probably felt more pressure.  Probably didn't help the whole old school thinkers writing about how he needed to hit like a 1B (and a 23M man) as if one can just change because they change positions and get a new contract.

 

Pitchers pitch him outside all the time.  We saw a lot of him trying to pull outside pitches more than he tried to most of his career and that's where the Ks and the grounders to 2B comes from, IMO.

 

As far as working behind the count and how he needs to swing more often at first pitch, he's done that most of his career and it didn't hurt him a bit. Not sure it all of a sudden is the issue.

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[KGB]

I think often hitting behind in the count has caught up to him.

 

Stop giving away the first strike in so many ABs.

.

 

Agree, his BABIP has not decreased, 

                                              BABIP

2013                                      .383

2014                                      .342

Career                                   .348

 

He just need to stop striking out, Morneau figured that out and won a batting title last year.

[Dantes929]

We have seen players swing harder and obviously step toward firs base in the effort to pull balls.    Just the eye ball test but as opposed to the tendency of guys like Arcia and Morneau, Mauer does not "step in the bucket".    Swinging harder though and trying to pull the ball sometimes caused lag that had the opposite effect plus when he swings harder he deems to foul more off.   Might also be a result of trying to hit the ball in front of the plate which has never been his forte.   I think we can all agree that one way or the other he didn't square up the ball very well when he did hit to the right side.

[jimmer]

 

 

He just need to stop striking out, Morneau figured that out and won a batting title last year.

Well, first, it's not that easy to just stop striking out. A lot more to it than just figuring that if I stop striking out so much, my BA would be better. On top of that, those non-Ks could still end up being outs and they'd still have his BA lower.  

 

For example:

 

Cuddyer won the batting title the year before, playing half his games in the same ballpark as Morneau did last year (the best hitter's park in the game) with a BA that was 12 points higher than Morneau's was last year and yet he struck out 40 more times than Morneau did last year.

 

Not sure about the direct correlation.

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think all the people saying he needs to be a player he isn't has finally affected his approach.

 

....

This is similar to what I've been thinking. Mauer is an elite hitter who probably needs less coaching.

 

Also I wonder if not hitting in front of Morneau was a factor last season. Not because Morneau was Miguel Cabrera but that Mauer and Morneau had such a long, good working relationship, maybe just those moments of quick comparing notes during the game with someone you built trust with might have contributed to the slow start.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Secondary User]

 

Agree, his BABIP has not decreased, 

                                              BABIP

2013                                      .383

2014                                      .342

Career                                   .348

 

He just need to stop striking out, Morneau figured that out and won a batting title last year.

 

Or did Morneau finally get over some concussion symptoms.  There's some head injury stuff to take into consideration here as well.

[Dantes929]

I think often hitting behind in the count has caught up to him.

 

Stop giving away the first strike in so many ABs.

.

I don't think that is the root cause or that it has caught up with him because pitchers have always known he has a lot of patience.     I used to wonder about why he did it and found at least at the time when Mauer was batting .350 and Cuccyer and Young were batting .260 they had similar stats when ahead in the count.   The difference was that Mauer, by taking the first pitch way more often was ahead in the count way more often.   While it seems like the first pitch he takes is always a strike it just isn't true.    .    His career average when ahead in the count is .370 but last year it was .293.   When behind in the count his career average is .254 and last year it was .201.   I wish he would swing just a little bit more at the first pitch just to keep the pitcher honest and he does very well when he does swing at the first pitch but I just don't think this was his root problem in 2014

[laloesch]

I don't think that is the root cause or that it has caught up with him because pitchers have always known he has a lot of patience.     I used to wonder about why he did it and found at least at the time when Mauer was batting .350 and Cuccyer and Young were batting .260 they had similar stats when ahead in the count.   The difference was that Mauer, by taking the first pitch way more often was ahead in the count way more often.   While it seems like the first pitch he takes is always a strike it just isn't true.    .    His career average when ahead in the count is .370 but last year it was .293.   When behind in the count his career average is .254 and last year it was .201.   I wish he would swing just a little bit more at the first pitch just to keep the pitcher honest and he does very well when he does swing at the first pitch but I just don't think this was his root problem in 2014

 

It probably was a combination of several problems.  I think everyone has finally sobered up to the reality that Joe will never be a power hitter despite the fluke 2009 season. He appears to lack the desire to do significant weight training and has never bulked up like many hoped he would.  The other issue is that he's still big framed and slow which makes it hard for him to produce RBI's at the top of the order.  IMO he shouldn't bat 1-4 in most lineups.  

 

It's unfortunate that the Twins and Gardy used him at the top of the order for so many years.  Having achieved almost god like status with this franchise everyone is afraid to move him down in the order.  He's too slow to lead off or bat 2nd and lacks the power to hit 3rd or cleanup.  What really needs to happen is for Molly to move him down in the order to #5 or #6.  That could help him immensely as it would take the pressure off of trying to move Dozier and Santana over all the time and eliminate some of the rally killing double plays.  

 

There's no doubt though that losing Morneau and Cuddyer in the lineup has hurt him.  He was one of the the few experienced hitters last season which paints an even bigger bulls-eye on his back.  If Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Plouffe and Arcia continue to improve it will be less significant, but that's a lot of if's

 

That said, Joe HAS to start swinging at more first pitch strikes.  He HAS too!  Mauer is giving away WAY too many first pitch strikes, many of which go straight down broad way.  He should be crushing those pitches!

 

He needs to step into the batter's box and take big cuts at those pitches every once in awhile.  Not only will it result in more home runs but will reduce the predictability of his at-bats which all end up looking the same.  Changing this dynamic should result in less strikeouts for him and produce more hits.

Edited February 4, 2015 by laloesch

[Boom Boom]

He's older than ever.

[Parker Hageman]

I wish he would swing just a little bit more at the first pitch just to keep the pitcher honest and he does very well when he does swing at the first pitch but I just don't think this was his root problem in 2014

 

 

He did increase his tendency to swing at the first pitch over the past few years:

 

2014 - 12%

2013 - 8%

2012 - 8%

2011 - 6%

2010 - 9%

 

And, like you said, he did have success when swinging at those. 

 

I think often hitting behind in the count has caught up to him.

 

 

In terms of Mauer hitting behind in the count, he didn't hit behind anymore than he did in the last six years. He did so more in 2012 and 2010 when he had very good years. This season, he's just performed poorly in those circumstances. 

 

Like I mentioned above, there appears to be a slight timing issue in his mechanics compared to his early model. That analysis is forthcoming. This would cause the swing-and-miss issues, the increased foul balls and decline in hard-hit contact. 

[Dr. Evil]

Maybe part of the issue could be that pitchers have been able to nibble away at the strike zone a little more because he hasn't had a big bopper behind him that they don't want to pitch to. aka: a guy to protect him in the order.

 

The concussion's effect to his central nervous system is likely an issue too.

 

The one thing I notice - he always seems to contribute even when he is not hitting well because he seems to make the other team's pitcher throw a lot of pitches to get through his at bat. Perhaps this is one factor as to why they do better with him in the lineup. Even if he isn't driving in runs himself, he is driving the pitch count up.

 

I look for him to add 10-15 points to his batting average this year due to being another year removed from concussion. Add more points to his batting average as those surrounding him in the batting order become more menacing to opposing pitchers and maybe he gets back to the .300 - .315 range.

 

Same goes for the "team effect." The team has been pretty down these past few years and that no doubt has pulled him down a bit too. If the team does a little better then I think that also helps his average.

[jimmer]

'He also shouldn't bat 1-4 in this team's lineup.'

 

Who had the best OBP on this team last year and who normally will?  It's Mauer.  So he should absolutely be in the top four of the lineup. You want the guys who get on base the most at the plate as much as possible. I don't think one off year (in which he STILL lead in OBP) changes that.  The guy is normally around wRC+ 130 (143 in 2013, 138 in 2012), that kind of run creator should absolutely be high up in the lineup.

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[ashbury]

.. and eliminate some of the rally killing double plays.  

Checking quickly, of the five guys at the top of the AL for offensive WAR (just to pick a handy ranking) in 2014, all but Trout had more GDP than Mauer.  Doesn't correlate to much of anything, IMO.

[KGB]

Well, first, it's not that easy to just stop striking out. A lot more to it than just figuring that if I stop striking out so much, my BA would be better. On top of that, those non-Ks could still end up being outs and they'd still have his BA lower.  

 

 

 

 

It may not be easy, but Mauer is a borderline HOF player, we shouldn't limit our expectations to what easy for him.

 

I do think being more aggressive at the plate would help.  His contact rate on strikes is down the last 2 years (about 88%, down from 93%), so not falling behind in the count would probably help.  Remember, the increase in strike outs started in 2013, prior to any concussion or move from catcher. 

 

And regarding the 2014 year, other than on this site, I have not seen any report that he suffered from concussion issue during the season last year.  Does anyone have a reference that he had any concussion sypmptoms?  Not every concussion is the same, so to continue to compare him to Morneau concussion without any support seem to be a excuse not a reason for the decline in average last year. 

[Dantes929]

'He also shouldn't bat 1-4 in this team's lineup.'

 

Who had the best OBP on this team last year and who normally will?  It's Mauer.  So he should absolutely be in the top four of the lineup. You want the guys who get on base the most at the plate as much as possible. I don't think one off year (in which he STILL lead in OBP) changes that.  The guy is normally around wRC+ 130 (143 in 2013, 138 in 2012), that kind of run creator should absolutely be high up in the lineup.

I had thought he was 3rd on OBP but you are right.   In his worst year of hitting he still lead the team in OBP.   I have never thought even in his best years that he should be in the 3 spot.   I have always thought he should be in the #2 spot.   His OBP way more than compensates for his lack of speed and doubles power plays well in that spot also.    I have always felt his value was as a table setter and that he was undervalued by most for the runs he would create without getting credit for runs or RBI.   Moving guys to scoring position with walks or to third base for sac flies happens more than most realize.    Forget double plays.   If he leads the league in double plays I would expect that he also had a year of batting .320 and OBP of .400+.

[Dantes929]

KGB, you may be right.  Every concussion is different but the longer Monreau was removed from his concussion the better he did.    Mauer even with striking out more in 2013 had an OPS of .880 as opposed to .732 last year.   What was the difference in the two years when he actually swung at more first pitches?   My logic says its either lingering concussion effects, trying to do more than he is capable   or difference in mechanics.    The last two may go hand in hand.   I am looking forward to Parker's analysis.  

[Craig Arko]

My understanding was that last offseason he didn't do much of anything but recover from the concussion symptoms. No regular workout, no picking up a bat until ST started.

 

It would be hard not to have a better offseason this year than that.

[jimmer]

It may not be easy, but Mauer is a borderline HOF player, we shouldn't limit our expectations to what easy for him.

 

I do think being more aggressive at the plate would help.  His contact rate on strikes is down the last 2 years (about 88%, down from 93%), so not falling behind in the count would probably help.  Remember, the increase in strike outs started in 2013, prior to any concussion or move from catcher. 

 

And regarding the 2014 year, other than on this site, I have not seen any report that he suffered from concussion issue during the season last year.  Does anyone have a reference that he had any concussion sypmptoms?  Not every concussion is the same, so to continue to compare him to Morneau concussion without any support seem to be a excuse not a reason for the decline in average last year. 

If Mauer does what he did in 2012 and 2013, I'll take that every single season and feel more than happy with it.  I don't think that says I am limiting expectations, not do I want to say, 'since he's a borderline HOFer, lets push expectations for him to be a player he isn't because what I have some idea in my mind of what an HOFer should do'.

 

In 2012 and 2013, he had a wRC+ over 135. That's extremely good. Take it every year, and hopefully healthy while doing so. 

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

My understanding was that last offseason he didn't do much of anything but recover from the concussion symptoms. No regular workout, no picking up a bat until ST started.

 

It would be hard not to have a better offseason this year than that.

That was my understanding too.

[jimmer]

My understanding was that last offseason he didn't do much of anything but recover from the concussion symptoms. No regular workout, no picking up a bat until ST started.

 

It would be hard not to have a better offseason this year than that.

which affected his preparation for the season, like Morneau and his laundry list of ailments he had during the offseason prior to 2015 that didn't allow him to prepare properly.

[dxpavelka]

"MOST.
PRODUCTIVE.
OFFSEASON.
EVER"  Somebody get back to me when Offseason Production counts in the regular season standings.

[Devereaux]

In terms of Mauer hitting behind in the count, he didn't hit behind anymore than he did in the last six years. He did so more in 2012 and 2010 when he had very good years. This season, he's just performed poorly in those circumstances. 

 

Like I mentioned above, there appears to be a slight timing issue in his mechanics compared to his early model. That analysis is forthcoming. This would cause the swing-and-miss issues, the increased foul balls and decline in hard-hit contact. 

 

Yup. This stat from Peter Gammons' site caught my eye: Joe Mauer has the lowest BA in baseball on 0-2 pitches going 2-for-48, hitting .049.