Article: Sizing Up The Competition: Chicago White Sox

[Nick Nelson]

"They've made a real statement with what they're doing," said an anonymous AL Central official.

 

"It's apparent they're better. They're a good club," said Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski.

 

"Rarely has a team so successfully and systematically answered so many of its major questions" in an offseason, wrote Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

 

With the possible exception of the crosstown Cubs, no team has drawn more attention and praise for its offseason moves than the Chicago White Sox. General manager Rick Hahn's pick-ups included a front-line starter, an elite closer, an All-Star caliber outfielder and more.

 

How big of a leap can the revamped Sox make after finishing fourth in 2014?2014 Record: 73-89

Runs Scored/Allowed: 660 / 758

 

Key Additions: Jeff Samardzija (SP), Melky Cabrera (OF), David Robertson (RP), Adam LaRoche (1B), Zach Duke (RP)

Key Departures: Paul Konerko (1B), Marcus Semien (IF)

 

Why They'll Be Better

 

Chicago lost 89 games last year despite boasting the Rookie of the Year in its lineup and the No. 3 Cy Young finisher in its rotation. There simply wasn't enough talent surrounding Jose Abreu and Chris Sale, but the White Sox have done plenty to address that over the past few months.

 

LaRoche and Cabrera should re-energize an offensive unit that had grown stagnant with Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn running out the thread. Samardzija joins Sale and Jose Quintana to form a potent trio of starters. The Sox spent a whopping $60 million to upgrade their bullpen with the additions of Robertson and Duke.

 

There's also a dynamic wild card in the mix here -- that being left-hander Carlos Rodon. Considered by many to be the best player in the 2014 draft, Rodon fell to Chicago at the third pick. He signed in July and was pitching in Triple-A by late August. Leaning on an absolutely filthy slider, he struck out 38 hitters in his first 24 professional innings.

 

The 22-year-old was considered extremely polished coming out of North Carolina State University and could make an impact in the majors this year as a dominant arm slotting into either the bullpen or rotation.

 

That's a nice weapon to have on deck.

 

Why They'll Be Worse

 

It's tough to imagine the White Sox not getting better in 2015, barring a rash of bad injuries. They do have some question marks around the infield and at the back end of the rotation, and of course there's no guarantee that all (or any) of their new acquisitions will work out, but manager Rob Ventura enters this season equipped with everything he should need to field a winner.

 

The widespread adulation that Hahn has received is well warranted.

 

What To Expect

 

Driven by the likes of Abreu, Quintana, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia, the White Sox were already a young team on an upward trajectory. The bevy of substantial offseason additions will only hasten their rise, and should put them right in the thick of the division race. Unless they have major health issues, the Sox strike me as a team with a floor around .500 and a win ceiling in the 90s.

 

 

~~~

This is the third installment in a series at Twins Daily previewing the rest of the AL Central. You can read our write-ups on the Royals and Tigers, and check back in later this week for our take on the Indians.

 

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[Shane Wahl]

The White Sox are winning the division in 2015. 

[ND-Fan]

I will be surprised if they make as dramatic jump as experts are predicting this year. It could happen but I have feeling that they may not have season everyone is predicting it takes time to put a winner together and play together. Also I wonder if they could run into some health issues before season is done they are depending on couple of big stars to lead them to contention and my experience is something usually happens when your dependent on couple of players. My guess is they play around 500 baseball when all things are said and done.

[Kwak]

"There's also a dynamic wild card in the mix here..."   Absolutely!  If the SOX believe their bullpen problems are controlled, placing Rodon in the rotation elevates their staff to the top of the ALC.  Their offence likely not to DET's level (yet) but I totally agree with the forecast of 81-91 wins in 2015.

[tobi0040]

The White Sox are winning the division in 2015. 

 

If their top three pitchers have seasons that look at all like the last few, they will be in the mix.  If Rodon comes up and pitches well they have to be the favorites.

 

The risk that nobody seems to be talking about is the health of Chris Sale.  I think we are all taking his 5 WAR every year for granted.  He missed 14 games the last two years, but it is the delivery and his elbow that I would be mosted concerned about.  Guys that have an inverted W, especially on skinny frames do not have history on their side.  Add in the sidearm and I am going to get real technical here, but violent flingy motion (VFM) and it does not look sustainable to me.   He cut down on sliders dramatically last year, but he has thrown 2,700 of them in five professional years, up near 88-89 mph. Prior to this year, he has thrown over 30% sliders. If he is hurt, you start with a team that had 73 wins, then subtract 5. In that scenario 82 wins seems rosy.

Edited February 4, 2015 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

Another team that you wonder will they call James Shields. Danks is washed up and Noesi does not inspire a lot of confidence. Without Shields there would be a lot riding on Rodon and the health of the front 3. Unless there's someone else in the wings I'm not considering.

[Dantes929]

Yes the Sox finished ahead of the Twins but the pyth says Twins should have had 75 wins and the Sox 71 so lets start there.    Adding Cabrera will definitely help but this was a bad offense even with Eaton and Abreu in a hitters park.    Adding starting pitcher and relievers should improve them greatly to the tune of 81 wins or so which is a 10 game swing..   I agree with the wild card which is true of most teams.   If they get help from Roden or some other player or two especially on offense really steps up it could make all the difference     Chicago is always my least favorite team but I have to admit they look way better than last year on paper. 

[big dog]

Predictions for the White Sox season:

1) Abreu continues to be a monster at the plate.

2) LaRoche gets hurt, Abreu moves to first, infield defense is even worse than expected.

3) Lots of solo home runs.

4) Robinson blows 2 saves in 3 chances and the world falls apart.

5) Growing rumblings about Ventura's decisions and leadership.

6) People wish Konerko was still in the clubhouse, but no one mentions AJ.

7) The team holds its collective breath every time Melky is drug-tested.

8) Hawk Harrelson feuds with umpires and still does not realize how many people think he's a clown.

9)The team wonders why they are playing .600 ball and just drawing 18,000 angry drunk fans per game, while the Cubs continue to sell out to happy drunk fans.

10) Steve Stone announces he is no longer willing to announce "with" Hawk but from a different booth.  Now insists that he be allowed to watch the game on TV in his living room in Arizona and just provide live tweets.  Reinsdorf agrees.  Hawk spends more time arguing with umpires and the Stone-tweets than the game, except when he can shout "He Gone" or "Put It On The Board...Yes!"  Ratings skyrocket.  Attendance drops to vendors plus a quarter of the team wives, along with homeless people who are allowed in for free to sit behind home plate and make the stadium look full from the centerfield camera.

[HitInAPinch]

They're paying out a lot of money on something that may not work.  Are the White Sox's minor league prospects no long a hot commodity?

[Kwak]

They're paying out a lot of money on something that may not work.  Are the White Sox's minor league prospects no long a hot commodity?

Gosh, for minute I thought you were commenting about the Twins. 

 

All posts that begin with: "If so-and-so gets injured..,--all projections are off".  That can be said for every team. 

[tobi0040]

Gosh, for minute I thought you were commenting about the Twins. 

 

All posts that begin with: "If so-and-so gets injured..,--all projections are off".  That can be said for every team. 

 

True, but some players are riskier than others. 

 

Here is a for instance, bleacher ran a list of pitchers whose mechanics make them a "ticking time bomb".  This was made in May, 2012. 

 

Of the ten pitchers named, here are a few that have already ran into issues:

 

Jason Motte - TJ in 2013

 

Kimbrell - TJ later in 2012 after the list

 

Pat Neshek - Actually had TJ in 2009, velocity has never come back.  Twins gave up on him

 

Kevin Herrera - Missed some time due a flexor tendon sprain

 

Chris Sale - Missed time due to a flexor tendon spain

 

Tim Lincecum - His velocity dipped quite a bit at a very early age, almost a 4 mph dip in his fastball between his age 24 and age 28 seasons.

 

6 of the 10 listed have had some sort of issues in just 2.5 seasons since the list was created.  Marmol is on the list and probably hasn't pitched enough to get hurt.  Seems like a higher rate than the general pitching population

 

As a comparison, only 29 pitchers between all the minor leagues and major leagues had Tommy John in 2014 (18 MLB pitchers) and that was the worst on record.  If each team uses, say 18 pitchers a year, I get a rate of 3.3% per year (18 / 540).  Much lower than this 22% rate over 2.5 years.  Mechanics and velocity play a huge role.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1179302-10-mlb-pitchers-whose-mechanics-are-a-ticking-time-bomb-to-serious-injury

 

http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/

Edited February 4, 2015 by tobi0040

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I think the ChiSox will be better--they almost have to be. Not a lot better. LaRoche is pretty much done based on his performance here in DC. Melky is one drug test away from gone. Sale will regress--he cant get better--but he is getting older.

 

81 wins--probably. 85 wins--doubtful.

[jimmer]

I think the ChiSox will be better--they almost have to be. Not a lot better. LaRoche is pretty much done based on his performance here in DC. Melky is one drug test away from gone. Sale will regress--he cant get better--but he is getting older.

 

81 wins--probably. 85 wins--doubtful.

I don't see them being much of a contender, not really.

 

I'm liking the Indians more and more, a lot having to do with the rotation. Like Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs said yesterday in his chat when asked what AL team had the best rotation and he said the Indians. I agree with him. 

[Kwak]

I think the ChiSox will be better--they almost have to be. Not a lot better. LaRoche is pretty much done based on his performance here in DC. Melky is one drug test away from gone. Sale will regress--he cant get better--but he is getting older.

 

81 wins--probably. 85 wins--doubtful.

Sale will turn 26 in March--not old and in decline phase.  Sale could just as easily be improving as declining. 

[tobi0040]

Sale will turn 26 in March--not old and in decline phase.  Sale could just as easily be improving as declining. 

 

I will take the over on his 2.17 ERA from last year.

[nater79a]

The South Siders might have a few issues with their infield. Gillaspie and Sanchez don't inspire a lot of confidence. Perhaps Micah Johnson, one of their top prospects, can come in and shore things up at 2B.  Not sold on their bullpen either; think Robertson could be one of the biggest FA busts from this off-season.

 

That being said, hard not to like their rotation especially if Rodon comes up and pitches well. Let's go with a record of 84-78, 3rd place, 5 games back of the Tigers.

[tobi0040]

The South Siders might have a few issues with their infield. Gillaspie and Sanchez don't inspire a lot of confidence. Perhaps Micah Johnson, one of their top prospects, can come in and shore things up at 2B.  Not sold on their bullpen either; think Robertson could be one of the biggest FA busts from this off-season.

 

The White Sox always seem to under-perform their expectations.  I remember when they traded for Jake Peavy and we were going to be in trouble.  Same with Adam Dunn.  Same with Bartolo Colon.  Every time they make a move they are the AL central favorites it seems.

 

Last year they won three more games than us, their pythag was actually 4 wins behind us and that was with 13 WAR out of Abreu, Sale, and Quintana.   They were 4th in the central in runs, last in OBP and those were with really good production from Abreu, who based off the year 2-3 drop offs of Puig and Cespedes may not happen again.  I realize this is a small sample size, but when pitchers go from no tape on a guy to a years worth, it makes sense. 

 

I have them ahead of the Twins this year, but I am not overly concerned about them long term.

[Brananorama]

I haven't finalized my AL Central predictions yet, and that's the only division in which I have yet to make a hard-and-fast call. I think the White Sox are going to finish second place if Detroit plays out like they look on paper, but if the Tigers begin to fall apart for a moment, I think Chicago can win the division.

 

The thing about Chicago is that they had such a systematic offseason. They addressed every single one of their major problems last year in a really efficient way, and got GOOD talent in each of those spots. As much as it pains me to say it, we'll probably be watching the South Siders get some postseason ball this year.

[Nick Nelson]

LaRoche is pretty much done based on his performance here in DC.

? He has an 804 OPS with 79 homers over the past three seasons.

 

 

I will take the over on his 2.17 ERA from last year.

Sure, but he has a 2.79 career ERA and has never been above 3.07 so it's not likely to get a whole lot higher. He's a stud.

[jimmer]

LaRoche had a combined WAR of 2.1 over the last two seasons and over the last three he's averaged 1.8 WAR a season.

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

True, but some players are riskier than others. 

 

Here is a for instance, bleacher ran a list of pitchers whose mechanics make them a "ticking time bomb".  This was made in May, 2012. 

 

Of the ten pitchers named, here are a few that have already ran into issues:

 

Jason Motte - TJ in 2013

 

Kimbrell - TJ later in 2012 after the list

 

Pat Neshek - Actually had TJ in 2009, velocity has never come back.  Twins gave up on him

 

Kevin Herrera - Missed some time due a flexor tendon sprain

 

Chris Sale - Missed time due to a flexor tendon spain

 

Tim Lincecum - His velocity dipped quite a bit at a very early age, almost a 4 mph dip in his fastball between his age 24 and age 28 seasons.

 

6 of the 10 listed have had some sort of issues in just 2.5 seasons since the list was created.  Marmol is on the list and probably hasn't pitched enough to get hurt.  Seems like a higher rate than the general pitching population

 

As a comparison, only 29 pitchers between all the minor leagues and major leagues had Tommy John in 2014 (18 MLB pitchers) and that was the worst on record.  If each team uses, say 18 pitchers a year, I get a rate of 3.3% per year (18 / 540).  Much lower than this 22% rate over 2.5 years.  Mechanics and velocity play a huge role.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1179302-10-mlb-pitchers-whose-mechanics-are-a-ticking-time-bomb-to-serious-injury

 

http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/

Craig Kimbrel has never had TJ surgery, so your list is down to 1 in 10 over 3 years... or almost exactly equal to your guesstimate 3.3%.

 

And that list was published May 10, 2012.  Here are the number of regular season days missed due to ANY injury by each of those pitchers since that date (according to Baseball Prospectus):

 

Mitchell Boggs - 2 (lower back)

Kelvin Herrera - 0

Craig Kimbrel - 6

Tim Lincecum - 1 (general illness)

Carlos Marmol - 22 (thigh)

Jason Motte - 262 (230 due to TJ surgery)

Pat Neshek - 0

Chris Sale - 62

Max Scherzer - 22 (13 arm)

Jordan Walden - 123 (58 arm)

 

So out of ~5000 regular season days since then, these guys missed 500 days due to injury (and only 369 due to arm issues), most of it due to the one TJ guy.

 

(Baseball Prospectus didn't note Herrera's sprain, but so far it was just one ALDS game that he missed for it.)

 

Not sure if this proves anything.

[tobi0040]

? He has an 804 OPS with 79 homers over the past three seasons.

 

 

Sure, but he has a 2.79 career ERA and has never been above 3.07 so it's not likely to get a whole lot higher. He's a stud.

 

No doubt he is a stud. He can be worse and still really, really good. But my point is odds are he will be worse next year, so in the context of year over year analysis Sale is likely a headwind, not a tailwind.

Edited February 4, 2015 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

Craig Kimbrel has never had TJ surgery, so your list is down to 1 in 10 over 3 years... or almost exactly equal to your guesstimate 3.3%.

 

And that list was published May 10, 2012.  Here are the number of regular season days missed due to ANY injury by each of those pitchers since that date (according to Baseball Prospectus):

 

Mitchell Boggs - 2 (lower back)

Kelvin Herrera - 0

Craig Kimbrel - 6

Tim Lincecum - 1 (general illness)

Carlos Marmol - 22 (thigh)

Jason Motte - 262 (230 due to TJ surgery)

Pat Neshek - 0

Chris Sale - 62

Max Scherzer - 22 (13 arm)

Jordan Walden - 123 (58 arm)

 

So out of ~5000 regular season days since then, these guys missed 500 days due to injury (and only 369 due to arm issues), most of it due to the one TJ guy.

 

(Baseball Prospectus didn't note Herrera's sprain, but so far it was just one ALDS game that he missed for it.)

 

Not sure if this proves anything.

 

I stand corrected on Kimbrell.  I must have been thinking Medlen or Beachy.  They pulled a list together of 10 guys with violent deliveries.  Two of those have had TJ in their careers.  Two have had flexor strains.  Two have seen their velocity decline, Lincecum pretty early and dramatic and Neshek's at 30 went down about 6 mph.  Note I am double counting on Neshek (TJ and velocity).

 

Very limited sample size and the data available on this topic is not great and time consuming.  But I stand behind Chris Sale having a higher risk of an elbow or shoulder issue relative to other pitchers in the league.  That is really the point.  Most of the guys with the inverted W seem to have elbow or shoulder issues throughout their careers.

 

Look at these pitchers, see any trends? 

 

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

 

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Examples/InvertedW.html

[beckmt]

White Sox should be the favorites if Carlos Rondon arrives(and he probably will).  Bullpen is not totally fixed, but Robertson is a good start.  Holes in the infield and pitching make them no different than other clubs, only their upside is larger.  I feel like first or second is likely unless the Detroit owner opens his pocketbook to more major purchases.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I stand corrected on Kimbrell.  I must have been thinking Medlen or Beachy.  They pulled a list together of 10 guys with violent deliveries.  Two of those have had TJ in their careers.  Two have had flexor strains.  Two have seen their velocity decline, Lincecum pretty early and dramatic and Neshek's at 30 went down about 6 mph.  Note I am double counting on Neshek (TJ and velocity).

 

Very limited sample size and the data available on this topic is not great and time consuming.  But I stand behind Chris Sale having a higher risk of an elbow or shoulder issue relative to other pitchers in the league.  That is really the point.  Most of the guys with the inverted W seem to have elbow or shoulder issues throughout their careers.

 

Look at these pitchers, see any trends? 

 

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

 

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Examples/InvertedW.html

I am no pitching mechanics expert, so you may have a point on Sale, but this data does nothing to convince me.  You've already cited Scherzer as a high risk in an above post, and now you're citing Adam Wainright, CJ Wilson, and AJ Burnett?  These guys have proven to be some of the most durable in the league.

 

You've got a long ways to go if you want to convince me that this pitching style is notably more prone to serious injury than the pitching population as a whole.  At best, you might be looking at a couple percent increase in Sale's injury chances based on this alone, which is probably dwarfed by countless other factors.

[jimmer]

Wainwright did have TJ surgery which sometimes means another is likely gonna happen about X amount of innings, or so I've heard.  So there might be some concern there.

Edited February 4, 2015 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

I am no pitching mechanics expert, so you may have a point on Sale, but this data does nothing to convince me.  You've already cited Scherzer as a high risk in an above post, and now you're citing Adam Wainright, CJ Wilson, and AJ Burnett?  These guys have proven to be some of the most durable in the league.

 

You've got a long ways to go if you want to convince me that this pitching style is notably more prone to serious injury than the pitching population as a whole.  At best, you might be looking at a couple percent increase in Sale's injury chances based on this alone, which is probably dwarfed by countless other factors.

 

Wainwright, CJ Wilson, and AJ Burnett all have an inverted W and have had Tommy John.  A few others that have had either elbow or shoulder issues and have an inverted W.  Strasburg, Prior, Wood.  Reyes. Bonderman, Marcum.  Smoltz.  Some come back and have good careers, some don't.  But every time you have TJ you effectively miss two years.  As you forecast the White Sox, I am not in a position to pencil in a 5 WAR for Sale.

 

The only guys I have found with an inverted W and not had these issues are Gio Gonzalez and Chris Sale, although Sale has had a flexor tendon issue so I am not sure if you can count him.  Certainly higher than a 3.3% ratio.

 

Here is a pretty good article on the subject, with commentary from American Sports Medicine and Dr. Andrews, with the key here:

 

"Problems usually begin below the waist. The most telling moment in a pitcher's delivery, for instance, is the foot strike. When the foot makes contact with the mound, the pitching arm must be up and ready to throw. A righthanded pitcher should be showing the baseball to the shortstop, a lefty to the second baseman. (Among active hurlers, Cliff Lee is a good example.) But if a pitcher's elbows come higher than his wrists and shoulders, with the ball pointing down, he's demonstrating an "inverted W" -- a sign that his sequence is off and he's fighting his own body. Such poor timing leads to arm lag, evident when the throwing elbow trails the shoulder once the shoulders square to home plate. Strasburg exhibits both problems, forcing him and others like him to rely more on the arm's relatively small muscles instead of the more massive ones in the legs and torso. Throw after throw, the shoulder and elbow are under extra stress. The higher the pitch's velocity and the worse the flaw, the more the arm suffers. And the more a pitcher throws, the worse it gets.

 

Arm lag and improper sequencing were likely to blame for Strasburg's UCL tear, as well as for those of almost everyone else knocked out by the injury. "The timing is subtle," says the American Sports Medicine Institute's Glenn Fleisig, who has analyzed more than 2,000 pitchers and is one of the world's foremost authorities on pitching biomechanics. "It's the difference between good and great and healthy and injury-waiting-to-happen."

 

Strasburg was probably in trouble from the get-go. He didn't rupture his UCL on one pitch with the Nationals -- even if a pitcher feels a pop on a particular pitch, his UCL was anything but pristine before the incident. Like a rope, Strasburg's UCL probably started to fray the moment he began pitching off a mound, the extra height of which can compound the stress of each pitch. It likely got worse not only because of his mechanics. Kids who throw the hardest pitch the most: They get hitters out. Famed orthopedic surgeon James Andrews, who founded ASMI in 1987, says he has seen a five- to sevenfold increase in high schoolers requiring UCL reconstruction since 2000.

 

"The No. 1 risk factor for UCL injuries is poor mechanics," he says. "The No. 2 factor is overuse. And if you overuse with poor mechanics, you're doomed."

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7712916/tommy-john-surgery-keeps-pitchers-game-address-underlying-biomechanical-flaw-espn-magazine

Edited February 4, 2015 by tobi0040

[Dman]

I like what the Sox did in the off-season.  I think that if that team stays healthy they have as good a chance as any in the division to win it.  I still don't think their bullpen is that great as they are more than two arms away from a good bullpen.  I still think the pen will be their Achilles heal. You look at that rotation though and you have to be envious.

 

I do agree with several posters that injuries are a concern with this team.  Primarily because they have little depth behind most of their players.    They are a pretty young team though and can trade to fill holes if they need too.  I like their chances this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wainwright, CJ Wilson, and AJ Burnett all have an inverted W and have had Tommy John.  A few others that have had either elbow or shoulder issues and have an inverted W.  Strasburg, Prior, Wood.  Reyes. Bonderman, Marcum.  Smoltz.  Some come back and have good careers, some don't.  But every time you have TJ you effectively miss two years.  As you forecast the White Sox, I am not in a position to pencil in a 5 WAR for Sale.

I think you can pencil it in -- that's why pencils have erasers, my friend.

 

Seriously, we're talking about single season projections.  There are so many qualifiers to all of them that a generic "+5% TJ risk" or whatever in any random season due to pitching mechanics is pretty trivial when you are talking about a guy who is presently in good health and made his last 22 starts last year (and was superb in them).

 

Now, if you want to say the White Sox can't count on an annual 5 WAR from Sale over the next 5+ years, I agree.  But I would agree to almost the same degree for any pitcher of that level.

[ScrapTheNickname]

It looks like the Sox are pushing Rodon too fast. He needs a good year at AAA, if not another.

 

I may be wrong, of course.