Article: Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 16-20

[nicksaviking]

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

 

If he put up those numbers, I'm not sure Suzuki would even need to get hurt for him to get a call up seeing as how much the team loves his defense. 

 

I don't assume he would hit anything near that though, he has never profiled to be much of a hitter.

 

I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade.  Hopefully there becomes a big enough log jam of talent for the rotation that he can go back to the pen where he can put more juice on his fastball.

Edited February 3, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Shane Wahl]

If he put up those numbers, I'm not sure Suzuki would even need to get hurt for him to get a call up seeing as how much the team loves his defense. 

 

I don't assume he would hit anything near that though, he has never profiled to be much of a hitter.

 

I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade.  Hopefully there becomes a big enough log jam of talent for the rotation that he can go back to the pen where he can put more juice on his fastball.

I really agree with all of this, though Duffey seems more legit.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade. 

 

That's who Duffey was coming into last season. And early last season. It's this changeup that has him becoming a prospect. Ben Badler at BA did a write up on Duffey in mid-July calling what he saw a "plus changeup". He also said his curveball (Duffey's words) is actually a swing-and-miss slider. And had him clocked at 96, but worked 91-94. 

 

He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA.

 

#BelieveInDuffey

[gunnarthor]

That's who Duffey was coming into last season. And early last season. It's this changeup that has him becoming a prospect. Ben Badler at BA did a write up on Duffey in mid-July calling what he saw a "plus changeup". He also said his curveball (Duffey's words) is actually a swing-and-miss slider. And had him clocked at 96, but worked 91-94. 

 

He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA.

 

#BelieveInDuffey

That's good to read and I sure hope you're right.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Duffey and Reed are overshadowed in this organization. In any other system, these are top 10 guys with huge expectations.

Sickels has them both C+.  Even the Detroit Tigers have 20 C+ or better guys in their system right now, so I'd hardly say these two would be clear top 10's everywhere else.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA.

Seems like a small sample.  He's got 6.8 K/9 in both his pro seasons as a starter.  Below league average K/9 at every stop (save for his 3 starts in Rochester).

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

How do you count 12 pitching prospects higher than Reed or Duffey? I've got Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Burdi, Thorpe, Rogers & May.  Am I missing someone?

 

I read through my list...I don't have 12 prospects higher than these 2.  You had 8.  So did I--the one I had you don't--Jason Wheeler.  I don't have Thorpe (arm issues). Maybe my AAP Brett Lee--but his K numbers are down--though he keeps on picking up wins.

[nater79a]

It'll be interesting to see what the Twins decide to do long term with Tyler Duffey; keep him as a starter or convert to a reliever like he was at Rice. Don't know if the Twins take into consideration the organizational depth or long-term contracts in the major league rotation when making that decision.

 

With the improved change-up he showed last year it would seem he has a good 3 pitch mix that would play well as a starter.  Personally, I would hope he remains in that role to hold his value either in within the organization or externally in a trade.

[nater79a]

I read through my list...I don't have 12 prospects higher than these 2.  You had 8.  So did I--the one I had you don't--Jason Wheeler.  I don't have Thorpe (arm issues). Maybe my AAP Brett Lee--but his K numbers are down--though he keeps on picking up wins.

 

I like Wheeler also. Probably more than most folks here at TD. The guy suffers from "Hey, he's 6-8 so how come he doesn't throw 96 mph" expectations. He lives in the 90-91 velo but the guy just knows how to pitch!

 

Anyway, I digress since he's not in Seth's list here. POT- player off topic!

[bird]

How do you count 12 pitching prospects higher than Reed or Duffey? I've got Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Burdi, Thorpe, Rogers & May.  Am I missing someone?

Sickels provides Grades, along with his rankings. By my count, there are 13 pitchers with a grade of C+ or higher. You didn't miss anyone as far as his rankings.

Edited February 3, 2015 by birdwatcher

[bird]

Sickels has them both C+.  Even the Detroit Tigers have 20 C+ or better guys in their system right now, so I'd hardly say these two would be clear top 10's everywhere else.

To be more specific, Detroit has two pitchers, Farmer and Kubitz, at one grade level above Duffey and Reed. Detroit has a TOTAL of four prospects at that B- level, and zero prospects graded higher than B-. I think it's probably safe to say that both Reed and Duffey would slide into Detroit's top 10, certainly top 12, but not necessarily in some other systems. In terms of the grades in our division, the SOX have 6 prospects graded higher than C+, the Indians 9, the Royals 7, the Tigers 4, and the Twins 14.

 

The Twins have 5 prospects graded at B+ and above, the Royals 2, Indians 3, Sox 2, Detroit 0.

Edited February 4, 2015 by birdwatcher

[DutchFarmer]

So when the Twins sign Moncada where does he fit in these rankings?

[Thrylos]

Turner over Minier?  And Duffey 16th in this system?

 

Ouch!

Edited February 4, 2015 by Thrylos

[Shane Wahl]

Turner over Minier?  And Duffey 16th in this system?

 

Ouch!

 

I agree with your incredulity with respect to Turner and Minier, and to some degree about Duffey. I do think that Duffey is a top 25 guy, though. That said, I really want the Twins to involve Duffey and Travis Harrison in some kind of trade. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Turner over Minier?  And Duffey 16th in this system?

 

Ouch!

 

Says the guy that rated Buxton, MLB.com's #1 overall prospect, third in the Twins system? You're going to pick on Turner over Minier?

[shs_59]

What was that Thrylos has Buxton 3rd?  lol  what a prospect noob!

 

All these years going back to Twinkie Town, Thrylos, have now been disregarded.

From this day forward I Taketh away the Power of Thrylos.

 

But in all seriousness I <3 thrylos' added knowledge but nnnnot  quite as much as Seth Stohs and Nygaard.

[shs_59]

I agree with your incredulity with respect to Turner and Minier, and to some degree about Duffey. I do think that Duffey is a top 25 guy, though. That said, I really want the Twins to involve Duffey and Travis Harrison in some kind of trade. 

I can't help but think when mlbtraderumors says, ' 5 to 6 teams discussing w/ Phills about potential Hamels trade' . 

 

I can't help but wonder if names like Trevor May or Alex Meyer are being thrown around, Duffey maybe as a 3rd piece but.

 

how about

 

Jorge Polanco , Kohl Stewart, A.B. Walker , and Taylor Rogers for Hamels?

 

I personally wouldn't offer Meyer.  Maybe think about May instead of Stewart, I just think The phils would prefer Stewart.

 

Essentially I wouldn't offer any top top guys like Buxton , Sano , Meyer , Berrios and I'd try to keep guys like Rosario , and Thorpe and Gonsalves. BUT being completely honest , for  a guy like Hamels...T. Duffey , and Travis Harrison are exactly the types of guys i hope the Phills bite on as pieces #2 and #3 in any such deal.

 

(hopefully if we offer 3 or 4 solid guys the Phills take on 3 mill a year on Hamels' deal or so)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You could probably start discussions with the Phillies if you include both Meyer and May. If you add in another Top 10 prospect (like Polanco), you might get the ball rolling. I'm still not sure that's enough. I'm also not sure I'd do it if I was the Twins.

[Steve Lein]

Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks.

 

Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done.

 

You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else.

 

Either of those are too rich for my blood.

[nater79a]

Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks.

 

Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done.

 

You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else.

 

Either of those are too rich for my blood.

 

Yes, the Phillies would need either Buxton or Sano in a deal. I'm sure they would want at least 2 top-10 type prospects that are on the doorstep to the big leagues.

[jimmer]

Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks.

 

Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done.

 

You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else.

 

Either of those are too rich for my blood.

problem is, Amaro wants a bunch of prospects AND doesn't want to eat any of Hamel's salary.

[shs_59]

I disagree with the hypothetical notion Phills would want or even Ask for Buxton, I think they even know the #1 prospect is off-limits.

 

I could see Amaro asking for Sano as the highlighter in any such deal, in which i would Be glad to hear TR and co politely decline.

 

Or counter with Meyer, May, Polanco and a C+ guy.

 

We'll see. Hamels, in terms of both pieces to acquire and in terms of Anual salarly is probably well too rich for our blood and Pohlads wallet anyway...

 

I'm ok with that.

 

I'm ok with passing on Shields too.

 

However Question for Jeremy, Steve Lein and others.... if Shields would be willing to take a 38~ 40 $  Million dollar deal on 2 yrs would you do that if you were the Twins and (barely) got the go ahead approval from St. Peter and Pohlad?

[Thrylos]

Says the guy that rated Buxton, MLB.com's #1 overall prospect, third in the Twins system? You're going to pick on Turner over Minier?

 

We will be here (hopefully) and shall see re: Buxton vs Polanco vs Sano and shall see re: Turner vs. Minier.

 

And unlike certain places, I did give an explanation for ranking Sano and Polanco over Buxton, vs. saying "someone else thinks he is the best prospect in baseball, thus he should be".

 

And, if you want to argue about or discuss my list (with baseball arguments, not because Callis or Mayo said so, I don't care what they say, they ranked Blackburn as the best Twins' pitching prospect) feel free to do it at the appropriate place and not threadjack this thread.

 

That said, I'd love to hear the argument for Turner over Minier...

Edited February 4, 2015 by Thrylos

[Shane Wahl]

I want to compile a prospect list of all the various top 30 or whatever lists around (not the national ones, but the TD one, Jeremy's, Cody's, Thrylos', mine, and Gleeman if he gets that done soonish.

[Seth Stohs]

I want to compile a prospect list of all the various top 30 or whatever lists around (not the national ones, but the TD one, Jeremy's, Cody's, Thrylos', mine, and Gleeman if he gets that done soonish.

 

I kind of have that started. Ill try to find a good way to get that posted when this list and Gleeman's are done.

[rghrbek]

Gleeman has Duffy as 31st.  That's quite a contrast from 16.  

[Seth Stohs]

Gleeman has Duffy as 31st.  That's quite a contrast from 16.  

 

I'm very comfortable with our ranking. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We will be here (hopefully) and shall see re: Buxton vs Polanco vs Sano and shall see re: Turner vs. Minier.

 

And unlike certain places, I did give an explanation for ranking Sano and Polanco over Buxton, vs. saying "someone else thinks he is the best prospect in baseball, thus he should be".

 

And, if you want to argue about or discuss my list (with baseball arguments, not because Callis or Mayo said so, I don't care what they say, they ranked Blackburn as the best Twins' pitching prospect) feel free to do it at the appropriate place and not threadjack this thread.

 

That said, I'd love to hear the argument for Turner over Minier...

 

Lol. "Threadjack" a minor league prospect list thread by talking about other people's/website's prospect lists?

 

I had Minier as my #17 prospect in the 2013 version and had hopes that he could stick at 3B, felt good that - unlike Sano or Polanco - he skipped over the DSL completely. Loved his bat. Dropped him off in 2014 amid the shoulder issue he had fixed in the off-season and didn't think he'd get a full year in, wanted to see how he'd recover. He had a good enough year to get back on the list (#23), but the 50/50 chance that he ends up as a 1B left him lower in my mind (same with Diaz). Obviously, I'll re-evaluate that thought next off-season. There's too many questions, for me, to rank him ahead of the guys I had in the Top 20.

 

Turner checked in with him at #18. I believe Turner to be a better prospect than Garver, who I had at #22. For me, Garver has less offensive upside than Minier, but more defensive certainty. So I gave Garver the nod over Minier. I believe Turner's defense outranks Garver's, even though Garver is better with the stick. Again all my opinions, which will probably be wrong. Apparently you know better...

 

Thrylos, on 03 Feb 2015 - 6:38 PM, said:

Turner over Minier?  And Duffey 16th in this system?

Ouch!