Article: Sizing Up The Competition: Detroit Tigers

[Nick Nelson]

It wasn't so long ago that the Tigers were the laughing stock of baseball. From 1998 through 2005 they lost an average of 97 games, including a 119-loss season in 2003 that was among the worst in major-league history.

 

To say that Detroit has come a long way would be an understatement, as the Motor City Kitties have now won the American League Central four years running. But times are changing at Comerica; erstwhile ace Justin Verlander ain't what he used to be, and the stud who replaced him in that role, Max Scherzer, recently signed a monster contract with the Nationals.

 

Can these restructured Tigers retain their roar?2014 Record: 90-72

Runs Scored/Allowed: 757 / 705

 

Key Additions: Yoenis Cespedes (OF), Anthony Gose (OF), Alfredo Simon (SP), Shane Greene (SP)

Key Departures: Max Scherzer (SP), Rick Porcello (SP), Torii Hunter (OF)

 

Why They'll Be Better

 

The Tigers have been one of the American League's best offensive teams for quite a while, and that should remain true, even with question marks surrounding their two best hitters. Miguel Cabrera is recovering back from a significant ankle surgery and Victor Martinez, coming off a career year, is now 36.

 

But those are still two guys you want to build your lineup around, and there's plenty to like elsewhere. Detroit replaced the aging Hunter with Cespedes, which figures to be an upgrade and maybe a big one. Right fielder J.D. Martinez enjoyed a breakout season in 2014, and talented young hitters like Jose Iglesias and Nick Castellanos have the potential to do so this year.

 

Why They'll Be Worse

 

Power pitching has been foundational to Detroit's success, but with Scherzer gone and Verlander evidently on the downslope, is their pitching really that powerful anymore? Sure, the Tigers still have David Price and Anibal Sanchez leading the way, but the back half of their rotation looks as weak as it has in years, and their bullpen -- which struggled frequently last year -- is none too intimidating.

 

This is an aging team, and a farm system that has been gutted through GM Dave Dombrowski's aggressive maneuvering was ranked last week by ESPN.com's prospect guru Keith Law as the worst in all of baseball, so little help is on the way.

 

What To Expect

 

The Tigers allowed 705 runs last year -- most by far of any playoff team -- and it's tough to see how they're going to reduce that number with Scherzer and Porcello gone. If some young guys can step up, and closer Joe Nathan can rebound at age 40, Detroit might get enough from the staff to hang on atop the division, but I think it's more likely that the Tigers' reign over the AL Central is going to come to an end. They look as vulnerable as they have in many years.

 

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[beckmt]

Do not know if they will be able to hang on this year, but they will be in total rebuild mode within the next couple of years.  Or the owner can really open the pocketbook to try and save this team, but they will still have to guess right on who to buy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Thin bench, thin bullpen, guys like Kinsler and Cespedes aren't very intimidating anymore, Castellanos may not be ready, JD Martinez may not hit as well as last season, and so on. Ausmus looked lost at times.

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see these guys closer to the bottom of the division this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeesh. Somehow I missed that Scherzer went to the Nationals.

 

Yeah, I no longer think Detroit is going to win the division.

[Dantes929]

I think they are still favorites.  They just aren't overwhelming favorites.    Last 3 years they were much better than even odds to win the division.  Like 3:1 or better.   Now I would say more like 3-10, Twins would be 1-10 and the other teams 2-10 all give or take a couple % points.  .   What if they all finish 82-80?

[tobi0040]

I don't see them finishing outside of the top three in the division.  They probably have two of the top three hitters in the division (Miggy and Victor), the other being Abreu.  That will limite their downside. The pitching will take a huge step back, no doubt.

 

Between age, payroll, and their farm system, this team is definitely a long term train wreck. This should work out perfectly with the Twins window.

[JB_Iowa]

I've never understood why they didn't do more to fix the bullpen the last few years (or why they did what they did).

 

Now I just have a sense that their time has come -- and gone.  They may still squeak out the division title but there is no sense of inevitability or dominance.

Edited February 2, 2015 by JB_Iowa

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see them finishing outside of the top three in the division.  They probably have two of the top three hitters in the division (Miggy and Victor), the other being Abreu.  That will limite their downside. The pitching will take a huge step back, no doubt.

 

Between age, payroll, and their farm system, this team is definitely a long term train wreck. This should work out perfectly with the Twins window.

I don't see them finishing outside the top three if their luck is neutral.

 

But given the potential age issues with Verlander, Miggy, and Martinez, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers' 2015 looking a lot like the Twins' 2011. The Twins completely collapsed that season and they were younger than the Tigers are going into this season.

 

That kind of collapse is unlikely but given how many of the Tigers' key players are over 30, it's not unimaginable that they could crash hard and fast.

[@bobbleheadguru]

The Tigers have replaced 6 of 8 position players in just the last 2 years. Look it up, only Avila is the same as 2 years ago. Miggy is there too, but moved from 3rd to 1st. EVERY other position player is different.

 

The Tigers have rebuilt the position player part of the team while staying competitive.

 

As for the pitching:

 

Price replaced Scherzer.

Rondon, Soria, Verlander and Sanchez figure to be back at 100%. All had significant injuries last year.

Greene and Simon are a slight downgrade from Porcello and Symly... but not enough to make that much of a difference.

 

The Tigers had a lot of bad luck with injuries to pitchers last year. They should be better this year.

[@bobbleheadguru]

I've never understood why they didn't do more to fix the bullpen the last few years (or why they did what they did).

 

Now I just have a sense that their time has come -- and gone.  They may still squeak out the division title but there is no sense of inevitability or dominance.

Well they got the BEST reliever on the Market last offseason (Nathan) and the BEST reliever at the trading deadline (Soria). Neither panned out.

[@bobbleheadguru]

Thin bench, thin bullpen, guys like Kinsler and Cespedes aren't very intimidating anymore, Castellanos may not be ready, JD Martinez may not hit as well as last season, and so on. Ausmus looked lost at times.

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see these guys closer to the bottom of the division this year.

Kinsler had the 2nd highest fWAR in baseball last year for a 2nd baseman (5.4).

Cespedes is much better suited for Comerica in left v. Fenway.

[bird]

Health will likely be the determining factor for them. If they lose any two of Verlander, Sanchez, Price, Cabrera, or Martinez to injury, the door is wide open, and if they lose two of these guys from either the mound or the plate, they could crater.

[tobi0040]

I don't see them finishing outside the top three if their luck is neutral.

 

But given the potential age issues with Verlander, Miggy, and Martinez, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers' 2015 looking a lot like the Twins' 2011. The Twins completely collapsed that season and they were younger than the Tigers are going into this season.

 

That kind of collapse is unlikely but given how many of the Tigers' key players are over 30, it's not unimaginable that they could crash hard and fast.

 

I don't see much resemblence to the Twins in 2011. The guys we had play really well in 2010 did not have the track record that Miguel Cabrera, Victor,  etc.  

 

At the end of the day I think they still have the best lineup in division and I don't think it is really close.  They outscored us by 42, Cleveland by 88, Chicago by 97, and KC by 106.   So 90+  losses seems very, very unlikely. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see much resemblence to the Twins in 2011. The guys we had play really well in 2010 did not have the track record that Miguel Cabrera, Victor,  etc.  

 

At the end of the day I think they still have the best lineup in division and I don't think it is really close.  They outscored us by 42, Cleveland by 88, Chicago by 97, and KC by 106.   So 90+  losses seems very, very unlikely. 

The Twins had some solid young players in 2010. Mauer and Morneau, obviously.

 

My point isn't that the Tigers will implode, it's that given the average age of their best players, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

I think Detroit will be one of three ALC teams in the 81-85 win range: DET, KC, CLE. You can even toss the Whities in there if a few things break right for them.

 

Obviously, the ALC won't have four teams in the 81-85 win range but going into the season, I think most of the division has a reasonable shot at that mark (including the Twins if things really go right for them). One of the teams will "break out" a bit and be better than that but on paper, this division is *really* tight.

[tobi0040]

The Twins had some solid young players in 2010. Mauer and Morneau, obviously.

 

My point isn't that the Tigers will implode, it's that given the average age of their best players, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

I think Detroit will be one of three ALC teams in the 81-85 win range: DET, KC, CLE. You can even toss the Whities in there if a few things break right for them.

 

Obviously, the ALC won't have four teams in the 81-85 win range but going into the season, I think most of the division has a reasonable shot at that mark (including the Twins if things really go right for them). One of the teams will "break out" a bit and be better than that but on paper, this division is *really* tight.

 

Pretty much agree. I think it will be a tight, relatively wide open division.  Not a particularly good division.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pretty much agree. I think it will be a tight, relatively wide open division.  Not a particularly good division.

Nope. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Probably the most competitive division in baseball for that reason. No team stands out as a clear favorite, no team is penciled in for 90+ losses (some think the Twins might end up there but I don't really buy it, I think they're good for at least 75 wins).

 

If the Royals manage to get Shields back, they're the only threat for 90 wins, IMO.

[tobi0040]

Nope. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Probably the most competitive division in baseball for that reason. No team stands out as a clear favorite, no team is penciled in for 90+ losses (some think the Twins might end up there but I don't really buy it, I think they're good for at least 75 wins).

 

If the Royals manage to get Shields back, they're the only threat for 90 wins, IMO.

 

It would not break my heart to see them give Shields a 5 year deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It would not break my heart to see them give Shields a 5 year deal.

I'd stand up and cheer if that happened. It'd make them formidable in 2015-2016 but I can't see that deal working out in the long run (then again, I don't think the Nolasco/Santana signings are going to work out in the long run for the Twins, either).

[tobi0040]

(then again, I don't think the Nolasco/Santana signings are going to work out in the long run for the Twins, either).

 

Valid point, but Shields is a year older and his pay is likely to be closer to $20M a year.

[Dantes929]

Depends how you rank divisions.    Ii simply look at how the division does as a whole.   By that standard the Central was the weakest division in the American League  but would still rank ahead of 2 of the National League Division.    To me Division strength should be judged based on the weakest teams also and if things work out as we hope for the Twins there probably won't be any real weak teams as there have in the past and as there are in other divisions..     I am looking for a big bounce back year for Mauer for us.   I am guessing Verlander is capable of a bounce back as well for the Tigers.      Its true that if Detroit has a year like the 2011 Twins they could lose over 90 games but that has been true the last 3 years as well.   No team can lose their two MVP players and have only three guys play over 100 games to go along with the top two pitchers having terrible years.    No need to go there.   Its true of all teams. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Valid point, but Shields is a year older and his pay is likely to be closer to $20M a year.

Yeah, the Twins are in a *much* better position to eat those contracts (annual rate, length of contract, Twins payroll capacity vs. Royals, etc) but it would have been *much* smarter to sign one James Shields than Santana/Nolasco, IMO. Doubly so when you look at the triumvirate of May/Meyer/Berrios the Twins have coming through the system.

 

The Twins shouldn't be dipping their toe into Scherzer waters but I'd rather have one guy like Shields/Sanchez than the duo of Santana and Nolasco.

[nater79a]

I think the Tigers have one more year in them. Win the division with 89 wins.

 

Also, agree with those who think the window is closing on the Tigers. With their farm system in shambles it won't be long before time catches up with them.

[Willihammer]

I gotta think if Shields is still around this spring the Tigers will call. 1, maybe two starts by  Alfredo Simon ought to do it.

[Kwak]

The Tigers have replaced 6 of 8 position players in just the last 2 years. Look it up, only Avila is the same as 2 years ago. Miggy is there too, but moved from 3rd to 1st. EVERY other position player is different.

 

The Tigers have rebuilt the position player part of the team while staying competitive.

 

As for the pitching:

 

Price replaced Scherzer.

Rondon, Soria, Verlander and Sanchez figure to be back at 100%. All had significant injuries last year.

Greene and Simon are a slight downgrade from Porcello and Symly... but not enough to make that much of a difference.

 

The Tigers had a lot of bad luck with injuries to pitchers last year. They should be better this year.

Plus, the Tigers have shown a willingness to add quality veterans mid-season--as opposed to the local team.  The Tigers owner has demonstrated that he will spend on his sports teams to enjoy his money now rather than just accumulate for others.  The estimate for this season's win total (by TD posters) likely didn't include any significant roster changes (on any team).  But, there will be changes made.

[big dog]

The Tigers will have a good shot if Miggy, Verlander and V-Mart stay healthy all year.  I don't see that happening.  Miggy and Verlander have played an enormous amount of baseball for being 32 years old, and they've been getting (and playing) hurt.  V-Mart is 36, with some lingering injuries.   If  those guys aren't at least close to full strength for much of the year, I think the team falls apart.  Toss in the chances that Joe Nathan is fading away, and what have you got?

[James Richter]

Plus, the Tigers have shown a willingness to add quality veterans mid-season--as opposed to the local team.  The Tigers owner has demonstrated that he will spend on his sports teams to enjoy his money now rather than just accumulate for others.  The estimate for this season's win total (by TD posters) likely didn't include any significant roster changes (on any team).  But, there will be changes made.

Prospects are the currency of mid-season upgrades, and the 2015 Tigers are rather poor in that department. Though I suppose they may be willing to eat another team's salary dump (which would only make their long-term future bleaker).

[Kwak]

Prospects are the currency of mid-season upgrades, and the 2015 Tigers are rather poor in that department. Though I suppose they may be willing to eat another team's salary dump (which would only make their long-term future bleaker).

Not necessarily--it's just money.  It is wrong to assume that other teams manage the same way as the Twins.

[Brandon]

I think the Tigers have one more year in them. Win the division with 89 wins.

 

Also, agree with those who think the window is closing on the Tigers. With their farm system in shambles it won't be long before time catches up with them.

I agree with this assessment.  The Tigers have the deepest rotation in the division.  the question is how will their pen hold up.  I am surprised they are not making any moves with whats still available this offseason.  Their offense is good too.  Next year they could be competitive too but after that I am going to start doubting it.  Next year they'll need Price to resign or a good replacement.  But after next season when their offensive pieces are all 2 years older I can see several of them breaking down and slowing down as well. 

[Brananorama]

Plus, the Tigers have shown a willingness to add quality veterans mid-season--as opposed to the local team.  The Tigers owner has demonstrated that he will spend on his sports teams to enjoy his money now rather than just accumulate for others.  The estimate for this season's win total (by TD posters) likely didn't include any significant roster changes (on any team).  But, there will be changes made.

 

The Tigers' owner has demonstrated that he'll spend on his sports teams mostly because he's 85 years old and wants to win one more before he goes out! Ilitch is a great guy, too, and he hasn't seen a championship while he's been the owner. He got them a new park, an All-Star Game, two World Series appearances...and he owns Little Caesar's, so you can't hate the guy.

 

But, I agree. I think if the Tigers aren't in a position to make a push around the deadline, they will begin the rebuild NOW and start selling off important pieces while they can still get some value out of it. I think both the Indians and White Sox have a better shot at the division this year.

[Brandon]

The Tigers have replaced 6 of 8 position players in just the last 2 years. Look it up, only Avila is the same as 2 years ago. Miggy is there too, but moved from 3rd to 1st. EVERY other position player is different.

 

The Tigers have rebuilt the position player part of the team while staying competitive.

 

As for the pitching:

 

Price replaced Scherzer.

Rondon, Soria, Verlander and Sanchez figure to be back at 100%. All had significant injuries last year.

Greene and Simon are a slight downgrade from Porcello and Symly... but not enough to make that much of a difference.

 

The Tigers had a lot of bad luck with injuries to pitchers last year. They should be better this year.

But the Tigers are going to have to replace Insler, Miggy, Martinez,  as they are aging and a huge part of the team. On Pitching there is Price as a FA and Verlander and Sanchez aging.  Maybe not this year as I think they will still be good this year but next year will start the slide and really kick into full swing from there IMO.  Unless they have other moves that work out but I think they will be too saddled by bad contracts for a few years.