Reusse's Take on the 2015 Twins

[Brock Beauchamp]

I see your points and some are valid but before we talk about how badly mismanaged Meyer and May have been, remember this:

 

Frank Viola was called up as a 22 year old in 1982. He was terrible for five years. He was good for two and then left for New York.

 

Playing the kids isn't always the right call, especially if they're not ready. Personally, I think May and Meyer are ready but what do I know.

 

And didn't Ryan do exactly what you're advocating with Hicks and get crucified by the fanbase for it?

[jorgenswest]

If Viola had come up when Hendriks did there is no way the current management would have had the patience through his awful first two years. He was very good for the rest of his Twin career. The Twins font win the World Series without him and the patience they gave him to develop.

 

As far as the fan base, many want wins today and don't get that it can take 50 starts or 1000 plate appearances. I am sure many wrote similarly about Dozier through over 500 PA's. He hit that mark in May of his second season and his OPS was in the 500s on June 1. It has been pretty good since.

[stringer bell]

The Twins didn't have prospects available to fill gaping holes. Veteran stopgaps like Doumit and Suzuki filled roles. We can argue whether they should have been flipped or whether they should have been extended, but the prospects weren't ready.

 

I put Willingham in a different category and it would have been tough to trade him during or after his big first season. Unfortunately injuries ruined his last two years.

 

They have developed a pretty good offense. It has been the rotation that has let them down. Maybe Neil Allen can change their fortunes.

[jimmer]

 

They have developed a pretty good offense. It has been the rotation that has let them down. 

Their horrible defense hasn't exactly been helpful to the rotation or the team overall.

[stringer bell]

Their horrible defense hasn't exactly been helpful to the rotation or the team overall.

Agreed. particularly in conjunction with a staff that allows an awful lot of contact, but I'll stand by a point I made earlier--that much of the defensive inefficiency was the result of playing guys who aren't in the Twins organization--Willingham, Parmelee, Colabello and Kubel--and while I disliked the Hunter signing, he won't be as bad as "the departed" and continuity will probably improve corner OF defense.  I still am on board with acquiring a premium defensive center fielder (like Peter Bourjos)  because I think the Twins need to take the approach that they can contend this year. 

[jimmer]

Agreed. particularly in conjunction with a staff that allows an awful lot of contact, but I'll stand by a point I made earlier--that much of the defensive inefficiency was the result of playing guys who aren't in the Twins organization--Willingham, Parmelee, Colabello and Kubel--and while I disliked the Hunter signing, he won't be as bad as "the departed" and continuity will probably improve corner OF defense.  I still am on board with acquiring a premium defensive center fielder (like Peter Bourjos)  because I think the Twins need to take the approach that they can contend this year. 

Two of the worst defensive OF in the game will be manning our corners and one is switching corners.  And we may still play an IF in CF.

[stringer bell]

Two of the worst defensive OF in the game will be manning our corners and one is switching corners.  And we may still play an IF in CF.

Not disputing that, but with more experience I expect that Santana will hold his own defensively in center, if needed.  The composite of the four guys I listed was horrendous, and they combined for more than a full season in the outfield. 

[KGB]

 

If he hits well with RISP and the cumulative numbers don't reflect that, then he is still doing his part.

 

I think you are really limiting your expectation of a borderline HOF player.  Getting on base is nice, but you can't just say he then done his part and if he doesn't drive in a run or score a run, he done his part.  I don't think that expectation would work for any other HOF type player. 

[big dog]

I think you are really limiting your expectation of a borderline HOF player.  Getting on base is nice, but you can't just say he then done his part and if he doesn't drive in a run or score a run, he done his part.  I don't think that expectation would work for any other HOF type player. 

Players should only be expected to control the things they can control, borderline HOF or not.  Any player with a decent OBP would score more runs with Miggy, Pujols, or players like that hitting behind him.  Remind me again who batted 4th and 5th for this team the last few years?

 

Look at the players that scored a lot of run, and think about the players they had hitting behind them.  Hitting 35 HRs helps both statistics, but other than that, no player can do it on their own.

[beckmt]

Central Division is changing.  Detroit and KC are both worse, Cleveland and Chicago should be better  Chicago much better.  All these clubs except KC have very good to great starting pitching.  And KC has the best bullpen in baseball with a good shot of decent starting pitching (Ventura, Duffy, Guthrie and others). 

Twins will have a hard time moving up this year against that type of pitching(though the Twins should be considerably better with their starting pitching).  Expect Nolasco to be moved if he has a return to form(he does not want to be here).  That and other injuries will open up spots for the youngsters,  it will depend on how many run with the chance).  Twins had to spend the money to create some hope and season ticket sales(look at Cleveland and the struggle to regain the magic and sales they had in the 90's)  Twins needed to do something to hold the losses until the young players step up and hopefully run with the chance.

[nicksaviking]

So after the 1983 season and its 92 losses, on the heels of a 100+ loss season the year before, you'd have backed up the truck and cleared out the Twins roster of all those losers, and tried a new direction?

 

All the ones over 30. 

 

Even if Vargas never is able to hit lefties, I don't feel comfortable throwing in the towel on that idea this early just so the team can shoot for a .500 record out of the gates in 2015.  It's not like his platoon partner is Trevor Plouffe, it's the equally unaccomplished Josmil Pinto.

 

Reusse barely touched on the subject, but it's very frustrating that this organization can't quite seem to commit to a full rebuild.

[KGB]

Players should only be expected to control the things they can control, borderline HOF or not.  Any player with a decent OBP would score more runs with Miggy, Pujols, or players like that hitting behind him.  Remind me again who batted 4th and 5th for this team the last few years?

 

Look at the players that scored a lot of run, and think about the players they had hitting behind them.  Hitting 35 HRs helps both statistics, but other than that, no player can do it on their own.

 

But where are the RBI?  Dozier and Santana were on base a lot last year.  Also even with Morneau hitting behind him and leading the league in RBI, he never scored at a high percentage.

[jimmer]

I think you are really limiting your expectation of a borderline HOF player.  Getting on base is nice, but you can't just say he then done his part and if he doesn't drive in a run or score a run, he done his part.  I don't think that expectation would work for any other HOF type player. 

No, I'm really not limiting anything. I'm not going to knock a guy cause he isn't driven in by someone or if he hasn't had a lot of people to knock in. I judge him on the things he has control over, which I explained in my post.

 

And this goes for any player.

[Platoon]

So after the 1983 season and its 92 losses, on the heels of a 100+ loss season the year before, you'd have backed up the truck and cleared out the Twins roster of all those losers, and tried a new direction?

I will defer to jorgensweet.... Anything I say would be redundant..... But I still will say something. First of all four minus 90's is really really bad. Secondly there are a lot of middling talented players on this roster. Not completely bad players, but not that good either. This group seems to have no Pucket or Hrbek waiting to break thru. And one last thought not often mentioned here. This group seems to be soft, they seem to go thru the motions easily. Maybe it's just me on the outside looking in but that's the way it seems.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Frank Viola was called up as a 22 year old in 1982. He was terrible for five years. He was good for two and then left for New York.

Bad example.

 

He had two rough years at the start, but Viola was #17 in MLB in pitcher WAR in his 3rd season.  Got us within 3 games of a division title.

 

And he was almost exactly league average in his 4th and 5th seasons, but that has value, especially when you are top 15 in MLB in innings pitched.

 

I can't imagine an alternate promotion schedule that makes Viola that good before 1984, or that much better from 1984-1986.

[Linus]

If Viola had come up when Hendriks did there is no way the current management would have had the patience through his awful first two years. He was very good for the rest of his Twin career. The Twins font win the World Series without him and the patience they gave him to develop.

 

As far as the fan base, many want wins today and don't get that it can take 50 starts or 1000 plate appearances. I am sure many wrote similarly about Dozier through over 500 PA's. He hit that mark in May of his second season and his OPS was in the 500s on June 1. It has been pretty good since.

Are you comparing Viola and Hendriks or the timeframe?  I think a big part of the equation is what they see besides the results.  I'm pretty sure they would have seen the upside in Viola and stuck with him.  Its the marginal guys that you can never tell, ala Hendriks

[Old Twins Cap]

This is a good thread.  Put  in  freezer  for mid-season.

 

I hope no one is saying Mauer is not a good base-runner.  He is, especially for a guy a catcher most of his life.  Not a Mauer Defender (Coin that NMD), but he is good on instinct and long legs get him there.  Haven't seen him thrown out much, if ever.

 

On Vargas, let him play.  One great regret in my life is, after 2002, and Ortiz carrying the Twins for major parts of the season, hitting homers in clutch situations, letting him go.  Never want to see another super-star emerge in Boston after the Twins give up on him.  Ever.  Injuries or not.

 

Ditto for Hicks.  Some guys take time.  Like wine.  Sorry guys, if you can't let go of what statistics tell you is the right move.  Every once in awhile, a guy emerges from a cave.  No one knows why, and all stats do is tell you what just happened.

 

Hunter.  Helps with fans, helps with young players, helps with clubhouse stability.  That's three bases right there.  News:  We aren't going to win the World Series.  Can we do something positive in the mean time? 

 

Assets.  One of Santana, Nolasco, Pelfrey, Milone is going to have a good season.  If the Twins are out of it, that's called an asset.  Last I checked, assets are worth something on the open market.  Bitch about the Twins choices, but, this is the way business is played:  buy assets, hope value soars, sell them for a profit.

[ashbury]

Sorry guys, if you can't let go of what statistics tell you is the right move. 

Is intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter:

 

http://cdn.ipetitions.com/user-images/petitions/give-pete-carroll-a-super-bowl-ring/UjQSWVOtRKWzFBUVdLBE_coach.png

[jimmer]

'Hunter.  Helps with fans, helps with young players, helps with clubhouse stability.  That's three bases right there.  News:  We aren't going to win the World Series.  Can we do something positive in the mean time? '

 

How do we know he will actually help the young players and help with clubhouse stability?  Because it's a good story?  Will we know by the fights in the clubhouse he likes to have with whomever is the best player on the team when the team isn't doing well (like how we are expected to be this year, again). Is it the press conferences where he can't control himself? Are we going to bother to take into account the horrendous defense he provides?  

 

 

[Kwak]

Horrendus is way too strong, that's Nishioka territory. 

[JB_Iowa]

 

'Hunter.  Helps with fans, helps with young players, helps with clubhouse stability.  That's three bases right there.  News:  We aren't going to win the World Series.  Can we do something positive in the mean time? '

 

How do we know he will actually help the young players and help with clubhouse stability?  Because it's a good story?  Will we know by the fights in the clubhouse he likes to have with whomever is the best player on the team when the team isn't doing well (like how we are expected to be this year, again). Is it the press conferences where he can't control himself? Are we going to bother to take into account the horrendous defense he provides?  

 

Mike Trout and Torii Hunter: 

 

Trout and Hunter, an Angel from 2008-12 and Trout's biggest mentor as he established himself in the big leagues, still talk about three times a week.

 

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/article/72548662/former-angel-torii-hunter-still-mentoring-mike-trout

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/01/31/torii-hunter-mike-trout-debbie-trout-angels-tigers/1880961/

 

 

Denard Span and Toriii Hunter:

 

http://www.twincities.com/ci_8834428?source=rss

 

 

Angels Leadership:

 

How important is leadership, particularly in a professional sport and on a team loaded with established, veteran players?

 

The Angels may find out this season, their first in a long time without one of Major League Baseball's most esteemed and engaging players.

"My reign is over," new Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter said -- and now, it's time for someone new to emerge in the Angels' clubhouse.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/43157330/angels-look-to-replace-departed-right-fielder-torii-hunters-leadership-by-committee

 

 

 

Does he just have everyone but you fooled???

 

He was in this organization for 15 years.  Somehow I think that the Twins have a better grasp on his character than are revealed by your references.

[jimmer]

Horrendus is way too strong, that's Nishioka territory. 

-18 runs saved. -18.3 UZR. Dead last for all qualifying MLB RF.

 

Extend that out to RF who played 600 or more innings in RF, we get 26 players.  Dead last again in UZR.  In fact, so far from 25th, that the guy 25th had a UZR of -10.4.And for overall Fangraphs defense rating for him, he had a -24.0.  The 25th RF had a -15.5.

 

57th of 59 qualify MLB OFs overall.  Horrendous kind of fits :-)

[jimmer]

Mike Trout and Torii Hunter: 

 

Trout and Hunter, an Angel from 2008-12 and Trout's biggest mentor as he established himself in the big leagues, still talk about three times a week.

 

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/article/72548662/former-angel-torii-hunter-still-mentoring-mike-trout

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/01/31/torii-hunter-mike-trout-debbie-trout-angels-tigers/1880961/

 

 

Denard Span and Toriii Hunter:

 

http://www.twincities.com/ci_8834428?source=rss

 

 

Angels Leadership:

 

How important is leadership, particularly in a professional sport and on a team loaded with established, veteran players?

 

The Angels may find out this season, their first in a long time without one of Major League Baseball's most esteemed and engaging players.

"My reign is over," new Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter said -- and now, it's time for someone new to emerge in the Angels' clubhouse.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/43157330/angels-look-to-replace-departed-right-fielder-torii-hunters-leadership-by-committee

 

 

 

Does he just have everyone but you fooled???

 

He was in this organization for 15 years.  Somehow I think that the Twins have a better grasp on his character than are revealed by your references.

So let's quantify his affect.

 

Hunter has been a media darling his whole career.  They see a veteran player who loves the spotlight and who gives good quotes, who acts like he's their buddy (except in one recent press conference). They say,  hey, he's the kind of guy who may decide to mentor, let's write about that. It's a good story.  An old school story. Then they talk to young teammates and former young teammates and ask about that.  The young players are going to say what, exactly?

 

What about the fighting when things get bad?

[JB_Iowa]

So let's quantify his affect.

 

Hunter has been a media darling his whole career.  They see a veteran player who loves the spotlight and who gives good quotes, who acts like he's their buddy (except in one recent press conference). They say,  hey, he's the kind of guy who may decide to mentor, let's write about that. It's a good story.  An old school story. Then they talk to young teammates and former young teammates and ask about that.  The young players are going to say what, exactly?

 

What about the fighting when things get bad?

 

It usually clears the air. In my world the fights are usually verbal but then I'm an almost 60 yo woman. As long as it isn't repeated brawling I'd expect some scuffling among teammates just like I've seen it among groups of brothers and sometimes even sisters.

[stringer bell]

I think reality is somewhere in between. Hunter seems to be well-liked by his teammates, but better-liked by the media.

 

Hunter is a big personality in the locker room and I think the Twins could benefit from that personality.

[Platoon]

I am a Mauer fan, and as a rule I think your "best hitter" should hit third. But I have argued for years that he is not a 3 spot hitter. And especially since OF shifts have taken away the left field line. That was his version of being a gap hitter. He is somewhat of an oddity. No one who takes that many good strikes to get down in the count should ever hit for that percentage. I do think he suffered seriously from losing the "catchers strike zone" last year. If you don't think a catcher, maybe the best hitting catcher in MLB history, doesn't get a preferential zone, then you have never umpired. Calling borderline, or worse, strikes on catchers makes for a very long day behind the plate. They wil always get the benefit of the doubt. He has always hit like a machine, everything perfectly repetitive. But it may be time to change that approach, or at the least tweak it.

[USAFChief]

 

What about the fighting when things get bad?

 

At the least it's an indication someone cares that things have gotten bad.

 

Something in somewhat short supply around TF, IMO.

[jimmer]

At the least it's an indication someone cares that things have gotten bad.

 

Something in somewhat short supply around TF, IMO.

I'm not sure I agree that is what it means and I also think it doesn't help anything. It also concerns me it's usually the best player on the team he's going after and that he makes sure he does it in the dugout. 

[KGB]

I am a Mauer fan, and as a rule I think your "best hitter" should hit third. But I have argued for years that he is not a 3 spot hitter. And especially since OF shifts have taken away the left field line. That was his version of being a gap hitter. He is somewhat of an oddity. No one who takes that many good strikes to get down in the count should ever hit for that percentage. I do think he suffered seriously from losing the "catchers strike zone" last year. If you don't think a catcher, maybe the best hitting catcher in MLB history, doesn't get a preferential zone, then you have never umpired. Calling borderline, or worse, strikes on catchers makes for a very long day behind the plate. They wil always get the benefit of the doubt. He has always hit like a machine, everything perfectly repetitive. But it may be time to change that approach, or at the least tweak it.

 

I’m not bashing Mauer, but I think we really set a low standard for him.  I agree it mostly an approach that he needs to change plus probably getting stronger.

 

I think we should be able to expect that he drives the ball more, which will result in an increase in RBI.  When we talk about his power, you would and his 28 HR year, you would think he hit 20 HR just 1 row into the Dome’s left field bleacher.  He actually hit more HR’s on the road than in any year since.  The power ability is there to hit 15-20 HR’s, he just needs to stop thinking a roller to left field is good enough.

 

I heard him explain his strike outs as umpire changing the strike zone.  But remember, his increase in strike out started in 2013, prior to any concussion and any change in from a catcher.  We just need to stop lowering the bar for Mauer.  He was a great player, why not expect that from him?