Article: Center Of Attention

[Dr. Evil]

Well, in that scenario, Escobar had 5 SH in 9 PA (most likely sac bunts) and his line is .000/.000/.000. Hicks has 6 PA, 2 SH, and a line of .250/.250/.250. 

 

I guess what I was saying is that scenario seemed very arbitrary to point out because it's an incredibly small sample size, less arbitrary than saying 'I'm more comfortable with this guy because of how he hits on Tuesdays.' :-)

I get what you are saying :0)

[jimmer]

 Using offensive as a criteria in that spot, at this time is not addressing the problems that this roster bring to the field.

Especially if we're using offensive criteria based on such small sample sizes as Hicks, Santana and Escobar have.  Santana had a BABIP over .400 last which is amazingly high and way above league average.  That is bound to come back down to Earth along with his BA. 

 

So yeah, we should be looking at who the best defensive CF is and he should get the job, especially with the guys we had standing in the corners.

[Willihammer]

I don't view Santana as a long term solution in CF. I'm just saying to start the season there with Escobar at short. That changes based on performance and who evolves and who regresses etc.

That's how you have to start the year, IMO. Let it ride for 6 weeks and re-evaluate based on what Hicks is doing in Rochester and what regression is or isn't doing to Escobar / Santana.

[Dr. Evil]

Especially if we're using offensive criteria based on such small sample sizes as Hicks, Santana and Escobar have.  Santana had a BABIP over .400 last which is amazingly high and way above league average.  That is bound to come back down to Earth along with his BA. 

 

So yeah, we should be looking at who the best defensive CF is and he should get the job, especially with the guys we had standing in the corners.

Agreed. Bring on Buxton. Pretty sure he is better in center defensively than Hicks or Santana. I bet he can bat .215 or better to!! LOL......kidding.

[Steve Lein]

Agreed. Bring on Buxton. Pretty sure he is better in center defensively than Hicks or Santana. I bet he can bat .215 or better to!! LOL......kidding.

 

I think something that is overlooked when we say things like "better in center field defensively than [whomever]" for a prospect, we forget one fact as related to the majors compared to the minors:

 

The stadiums are much bigger.

 

Hicks was touted similarly to how Buxton is now for his defense and arm coming up through the minors. I think it's safe to say we've been underwhelmed at this point by Hicks out in CF, though I don't think he's been bad either.

 

What I'm getting at with the stadiums, is in the Minors, there is very rarely (if ever) that large 2nd or 3rd deck of stands above the lower-level, whereas they exist in every stadium in the majors. I think it takes some time to adjust to tracking a ball against the stands and the fans in the seats as compared to open skies like in the minors.

 

Not really trying to make a point here, just something I find interesting when a guy comes up to the majors for the first time, and they don't always show the competency you read about.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Escobar .275 + Santana .319 = 594 

Santana .319 + Hicks .215 = 534

Santana + Escobar = good hustle, work ethic, defense, base running

 

My vote is Escobar SS, Santana CF, Hicks AAA = best starting point to the season and then go from there based on Hicks being Hicks or Hicks developing.

I agree.  Long-term--our plan has to be Buxton in CF.  We all hope it happens this summer.  Until then, hold down the fort with Santana in CF and Esco at SS and Hicks in Rochester.  Only bring Hicks up for one LAST chance if Santana regression is huge and Hicks is doing it in Rochester.

[jimmer]

 

Not really trying to make a point here, just something I find interesting when a guy comes up to the majors for the first time, and they don't always show the competency you read about.

I think we sometimes forget the human aspect of this.  I think for most players it just takes time to get used to the new environment.  Takes time to get the 'awe' sensation to go away. You know, the awe of making it to The Show finally. Takes time to get the jitters out. Takes time to adjust to the skill level of the rest of the players, etc, etc.

 

I am much more surprised when a rookie comes in and lives up the hype right away in all aspects of the game.

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

Hicks was touted similarly to how Buxton is now for his defense and arm coming up through the minors. I think it's safe to say we've been underwhelmed at this point by Hicks out in CF, though I don't think he's been bad either.

 

 

My memory is not great here, but I remember Hicks's arm being ahead of his range and instincts.  He was never the athlete that many feel Buxton is. I think I read Buxton tied Bo Jackson's time from home to 1B, best ever for a right hander.

 

I get you on the overall point of players not meeting expectations, especially right away. 

Edited January 29, 2015 by tobi0040

[JB_Iowa]

What I'm getting at with the stadiums, is in the Minors, there is very rarely (if ever) that large 2nd or 3rd deck of stands above the lower-level, whereas they exist in every stadium in the majors. I think it takes some time to adjust to tracking a ball against the stands and the fans in the seats as compared to open skies like in the minors.

 

Agreed.  To some extent, only time and consistent play at the ML level will help.  But I have to wonder if this might be where Hunter can be of help to all of the young outfielders.  He'll be out in the same sun and wind and should be able to help them make in-game adjustments.

[twinssouth]

To me, Hicks has red flags all over.  He gives up switch hitting in the minors, then goes back to it.  Didn't he miss a meeting last year?  Gets sent home early from winter ball.  I just can't see it.  Can't believe the Twins are going into the year with CF so unsettled.

[Steve Lein]

Also, on the "leave Arcia in RF, put Torii in LF" argument.

 

I don't think it's about their lack of faith in Arcia improving in RF, but more on what they think each brings to the table in the OF

 

To me, you can classify OF defenders in two categories, fundamentally:

 

1. Those with good instincts who can put there head down and run to a spot. And,

2. Those who have to constantly track the ball with their eyes.

 

Based on Torii's gold glove CF defense in his early career, I'd say he's in category #1, even though he's lost that range with age. Also with that CF defense, comes the experience of moving in both directions to track down fly balls.

 

There's no doubt that Arcia is in category #2, and isn't that great with his limited speed and instincts to begin with.

 

Now, drawing from personal experience, as a right-handed player (glove on my left hand), even though I played both corner OF spots in my playing days, I always preferred being in left field because I was category #2, and it was easier for me to track balls moving to my glove side, toward the gap where most balls are hit.

 

Maybe that's what they see happening with Arcia, that he'll do better because he'll be chasing more balls in that direction than he would in RF, while Hunter shouldn't have any issues with that, no matter which corner he plays.

 

As a sidenote to this thought as well, Hicks often times got questioned for his effort running down fly balls because it seemed like he would 'jog' after them.

 

Well, if he's in category #2 above (which I think he is more than #1), I can also say that when you do this, the natural thing your body/mind does is equalize your route and speed, so that your glove gets to the ball is going at the exact point you will catch it. Granted, you don't want to do this all the time, such as when you need to set up to make a throw, but I never thought it was from a lack of effort from Hicks.

[ashbury]

1.) What do you think should happen at the position?

2.) What do you think will happen at the position?

What will they do?  I think they don't know for certain either, aside from expecting one of the options you named to pan out.  Maybe they are banking on scooping up 2015's version of Sam Fuld on the waiver wire again.

 

As for should, Hicks succeeding is the most desirable outcome, therefore it's what I'd be focused on.  My impression was that last season they tried hard to reduce the pressure and hoped he would blossom.  That can work.  But there's something to be said for not worrying about a guy who thrives only under low pressure, so I'm half glad the effort didn't work.

 

With a new manager and some new coaches on staff, I'm going to hope for tough love and increased pressure on Hicks from Molitor, that this is his year, make-or-break.

http://media.giphy.com/media/ZiQp2QhsFKPyo/giphy.gif

 

 

Because of the risk that getting Hicks going doesn't work this time either, I want a better backup plan than we currently have, probably via a minor trade.  Schafer is the least lousy of the ones we currently have.

[Steve Lein]

My memory is not great here, but I remember Hicks's arm being ahead of his range and instincts.  He was never the athlete that many feel Buxton is. I think I read Buxton tied Bo Jackson's time from home to 1B, best ever for a right hander.

 

Well, I wouldn't go that far, he was certainly praised for his athleticsim.

 

Keith Law, for example, rated him as the #10 prospect in baseball before the 2011 season (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?page=LawTop100Prospects1-25):

 

His profile:

 

"Hicks took a step forward in 2010 by converting his tools into baseball performance. He's a true five-tool player, with an 80 arm in the outfield, above-average speed, future plus power and excellent bat speed. He's much smoother hitting right-handed, with better balance and weight transfer, and it showed this year in his platoon split, as he hit just .248/.383/.339 against right-handers even though he was repeating the level.

 

His plate discipline continues to improve, and there's plenty of leverage in there for power when he fills out, but the inability to hit right-handed pitching is a major concern that will have to be addressed, perhaps by having him give up switch-hitting if it doesn't improve. On tools alone, Hicks is a top-5 prospect in the game, and I still expect him to become a star, but there's some risk here and I can understand why the Twins are taking it a little slow with him."

 

Sounds pretty similar to me, but you are right there is a difference.

 

Also going back the the Hunter mentor thing, this article is up on mlb.com today: http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/107814252/torii-hunter-to-mentor-minnesota-twins-young-outfielders

Edited January 29, 2015 by Steve Lein

[jimmer]

Any post that has a David Tennant gif almost assuredly deserves a 'like' :-)

[Dantes929]

I have a hard time ignoring everything but his OBP. That seems like a bad way to build a team. He can't hit MLB pitching. He barely hit minor league pitching. 

 

I think Hicks should be in AAA.

 

I think they will start him in CF in MN.

I value OBP a great deal and remind folks that Hicks was better than Revere in this category but lets break it down even further.   The .341 OBP is made up of .410 from the right side and .302 from the left side.    This screams platoon so the idea of plan B to be sending down Hicks and platooning Schaefer with some one else makes no sense to me whatsoever.    My guess is that if he starts the season in center batting lefty will be his downfall.   If he starts in AAA he will probably either not earn promotion because of his batting lefty or eventually he will earn the promotion with a hot bat for a month and then fail in the Bigs because of his left side batting. Then everyone gives up on him  which leads to losing what is likely his true value which is platooning against lefties batting righty.    IMO if they send him down they should ORDER him to bat right handed all the time which is what they should have done in the first place     This is his best chance at success as a full time starter but I get that it might be hard to make that adjustment.   This is why the best option, and its actually a very good option is to platoon Schaeffer and Hicks.  This is even a very viable and valuable option for left field for when Buxton comes up and Hunter is gone in case Rosario doesn't make good.    The non starter has utility as late inning defensive replacement for Arcia.   

[Platoon]

Also, on the "leave Arcia in RF, put Torii in LF" argument.

 

I don't think it's about their lack of faith in Arcia improving in RF, but more on what they think each brings to the table in the OF

 

To me, you can classify OF defenders in two categories, fundamentally:

 

1. Those with good instincts who can put there head down and run to a spot. And,

2. Those who have to constantly track the ball with their eyes.

 

Based on Torii's gold glove CF defense in his early career, I'd say he's in category #1, even though he's lost that range with age. Also with that CF defense, comes the experience of moving in both directions to track down fly balls.

 

There's no doubt that Arcia is in category #2, and isn't that great with his limited speed and instincts to begin with.

 

Now, drawing from personal experience, as a right-handed player (glove on my left hand), even though I played both corner OF spots in my playing days, I always preferred being in left field because I was category #2, and it was easier for me to track balls moving to my glove side, toward the gap where most balls are hit.

 

Maybe that's what they see happening with Arcia, that he'll do better because he'll be chasing more balls in that direction than he would in RF, while Hunter shouldn't have any issues with that, no matter which corner he plays.

 

As a sidenote to this thought as well, Hicks often times got questioned for his effort running down fly balls because it seemed like he would 'jog' after them.

 

Well, if he's in category #2 above (which I think he is more than #1), I can also say that when you do this, the natural thing your body/mind does is equalize your route and speed, so that your glove gets to the ball is going at the exact point you will catch it. Granted, you don't want to do this all the time, such as when you need to set up to make a throw, but I never thought it was from a lack of effort from Hicks.

Even tho I was/am one of those who think Arcia should have been left in right, I agree that LF is easier to play. (park abnormalities taken into consideration). But that fact then begs the question. Why wasn't he in LF to start with. Plus I still think he is destined for RF, possibly because of his arm?

A point to be considered during all of this speculation. And it's a point the Twins internally must have considered: What is our goal for the season?? Not what is our stated goal to the unwashed masses who buy tickets, but what are we truly trying to accomplish. Get an honest answer to that question, and the discussion of who plays where will coalesce. It will also indicate the degree of rationality in the FO!

[gbg]

I've brought up the fact that Kepler's AFL OPS was better than Rosario's several times. I think Rosario is closer to big league ready than Kepler. Both have plenty to prove yet before they really are ready. 

 

And yes, we want Rosario to be better than he was last year. He's not going to walk, so he'll have to hit for average. I think he's natural-enough of a hitter to be able to do that. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt for the missed time and some of the stuff that he was doing to himself. 2015 can be a do-over, at least for me, and I think he can move up and succeed. 

 

Kepler's problems have been injury-related. He also was a lot more raw when he signed, so patience was more important with him. I definitely believe in his bat. He can (and has) played centerfield, but I don't think he'd cover nearly the ground that Rosario could. 

That they both have a lot to prove is my point. I just don't think Rosario's AFL stint this year was that impressive (Championship game aside...). I think he had only the 6th or 7th highest OPS on the team, so Kepler's one of a handful who had a better month. League-wide, he was squarely in the middle.

 

I want Rosario to step up (and long-term, I'm still a believer), but as you state - he has a ways to go. I'm just not able to point to the Fall League as a game-changer, even if it was an improvement over his season.

[TwinsMasochist]

Shafer has shown he can hit??

 

 

He hit for us .285 for us in his brief stint so I think the question is "Is what he did sustainable?"  and the answer is no, probably not.

[ashbury]

He hit for us .285 for us in his brief stint so I think the question is "Is what he did sustainable?"  and the answer is no, probably not.

I thought it was pretty clear that Chief was responding to the post just above his, which had said in part, "I'm starting Schafer in CF.  He's got the defense and has shown that with AB's, he can hit."  The question of sustainability was already implied.  Not that it matters, nor that Chief needs or wants me to clarify, nor... oh, meh.

[stringer bell]

A lot of good comments here. I am trying not to cherry-pick stats, but I would like to point out some things that seem to be pushed under the rug--yes, Aaron Hicks will play this year at 25, Eduardo Escobar just turned 26, they are less than a year apart and Escobar has accomplished something as a major leaguer. I would also state that Schafer showed more in his short stint with the Twins than Hicks has in 538 plate appearances with the Twins. Hicks performance has been on a par with Robinson's in a roughly equivalent number of at-bats.

 

If some are willing to platoon Hicks, I think they are giving up on Hicks as a prospect and making him a fourth outfielder/platoon player. A strict platoon would have Hicks "riding the pine" between 2/3 and 3/4 of the time. I'd rather have Robinson in that role and see if Hicks can master AAA.

 

Yes, Danny Santana is a cover boy for "predicted regression" and most of us were surprised by Eduardo Escobar's hitting prowess last year. Again, their production last year happened as did Hicks' lack of production. The Twins should be cognizant of the percentages, but shouldn't ignore what happened between the lines.

 

Let's also remember that the team that goes north won't be the team that we see after Memorial Day or the All-Star break. First of all, the Twins should proceed as if they were going to contend this year. That means sending the best 25 players north and the best nine on the field and in my book that means both Danny Santana and Eduardo Escobar in the lineup.

 

Addressing defense--Aaron Hicks isn't even above-average as a center fielder. He might be a bit better than Santana, but the difference could be marginal. Buxton likely won't be a gold glove guy when he is recalled, but he could be the best defender available in the Twins' system. If the Twins want premium defense in center, they should make a deal for Peter Bourjos. He is a proven top defender, still under 30 with a contract for less than $2M.

[TwinsMasochist]

I thought it was pretty clear that Chief was responding to the post just above his, which had said in part, "I'm starting Schafer in CF.  He's got the defense and has shown that with AB's, he can hit."  The question of sustainability was already implied.  Not that it matters, nor that Chief needs or wants me to clarify, nor... oh, meh.

 

 

Whoops, i totally missed that.  My bad!

 

When it comes down to it, I am having a hard time, personally, deciding whether it is better to use hicks/chafe (platoon, or chafe as 4th) to cover more ground, take better routes and help our slow corner guys - or to put santana out there in CF, Escobar at SS and go all out offensive mode.

[USAFChief]

Whoops, i totally missed that. My bad!

 

When it comes down to it, I am having a hard time, personally, deciding whether it is better to use hicks/chafe (platoon, or chafe as 4th) to cover more ground, take better routes and help our slow corner guys - or to put santana out there in CF, Escobar at SS and go all out offensive mode.

My apologies for not being more clear.

 

My take would be, while you can't ever be sure of anything in baseball, if anything Shafer has shown he's extremely unlikely to hit. He has 1200 MLB PAs...there's a reason he was freely available.

 

I think expecting him to succeed as the LH side of a platoon, where he will get the majority of the playing time, is unlikely in the short term, and does nothing good for the long term. I'd prefer any option other than that one.

[Thrylos]

Trying to answer this question, first an illustration of Schafer's career:

 

2005 (18 years old) Rk-GCL: .203/.256/.352; 3 HR, 12 2B, 3 3B, 13 SB (200 PA)
2006 (19)  A: .240/.293/.376; 8 HR, 15 2B, 7 3B, 15 SB (422 PA)
2007 (20) A/A+: .312/.374/.513; 15 HR, 49 2B, 10 3B, 23 SB (626 PA) #25 MLB Prospect per BA
2008 (21) AA: .269/.378/.471; 10 HR, 18 2B, 6 3B, 12 SB (297 PA) #42 MLB Prospect per BA
---------
50 games HGH suspension
---------
2009 (22) AAA: .229/.263/.400; 2 HR, 0 2B, 0 3B, 3 SB (38 PA)
2009 (22) MLB: .202/.313/.287; 2 HR, 8 2B, 0 3B, 2 SB (195 PA)
2010 (23) A/AA/AAA: .201/.268/.255; 1 HR, 10 2B, 1 3B, 12 SB (307 PA)
and then downhill from here, traded to the Astros, back to the Braves last season and 4 terrible seasons until he came to the Twins, where he was average.

 

Don't know about you, but I see a whole bunch of red flags here.  I was totally surprised that the Twins even offered him arbitration, to tell you the truth.  Guys like him are a dime a dozen and I cannot find a season that he was clean and remotely approached league average.  Butera on steroids (semi-literally.)  

 

Litmus test: 

a. Can you win with him as your starting Centerfielder?   NOPE.

b. Would the big boys (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc) have him as their starting CF?  NOPE

 

So the Twins should not, unless they do not want to win, or unless they consider themselves second class citizens.

 

One name that is (thankfully) not mentioned:  Torii Hunter.  That is another NO, and I hope that this manager gets that; the previous one played Parmelee & Cuddaver at CF, so that would had been a risk if Gardy was still around.

 

Doing the same litmus test, Escobar and Santana are also a NO, and Hicks and Rosario are maybe's.   AFL notwithstanding (because of Buxton, there) Rosario played mostly Centerfield in 2014. So, I'd have those two battle it out as plan B., because "Maybe" is half-rearending it.

 

But I would really think hard and probably come with a plan A:  I'd look around the majors for good defensive Centerfielders who have a year or 2 of contract and can hold the Fort until Godot (sorry, Buxton) arrives and they have been successful and they are what people would think of when they think of a "Major League Centerfielder."  And, maybe they are having a performance hickup, so they might come cheap.  There is someone who fits all of the above criteria (and he will just be entering his prime and needs a change of scenery big time.)

 

This guy should be the Twins starting Centerfielder in 2015...  Plus you get a lead off hitter

Edited January 30, 2015 by Thrylos

[sploorp]

I think it's Hicks' position to lose.  At worst, it will probably be a Hicks/Schaeffer platoon.

 

I'm hoping Hicks' second half stats weren't a fluke and that he really has figured it out.  With Hunter joining Arcia in the corner spots, the team needs decent center field fielding more than ever.

[stringer bell]

I think it's Hicks' position to lose.  At worst, it will probably be a Hicks/Schaeffer platoon.

 

I'm hoping Hicks' second half stats weren't a fluke and that he really has figured it out.  With Hunter joining Arcia in the corner spots, the team needs decent center field fielding more than ever.

What was impressive about Hicks' second half? He handled AA, was about average (maybe a little better) in AAA in a SSS and then walked his way to a .657 OPS in September with the Twins. I watched enough of Hicks in September to ask, over and over, "when is he going to hit the ball hard?".

[DocBauer]

Going off the reservation here.

 

What SHOULD they do? They should go out NOW, while there is still time, and make a move for a defensive CF who won't spike himself offensive...(does that analogy EVER grow old?)...and improve the OF defense...which will improve the pitching staff...which will improve THE TEAM.

 

Santana can still continue to work at CF and make an appearance here and there. That allows for rest and matchup play. Escobar can get 500AB's as the part time SS as well as primary fill in 2B and 3B. Hicks gets to play at AAA for something more than a month to regain confidence, work on his hitting and approach, and learn to drive the ball again. (the video Parker showed recently showed wide open hips that would have a hard time getting the ball out of the damned infield!)

 

Schafer gets his shot to prove that at long last, ability met maturity and opportunity and his finish for the Twins last season wasn't an illusion. Or at least...only a puff of smoke and one slightly cracked mirror. He can be a 4th OF and possibly quasi-platoon CF in certain situations.

 

I am not a Hicks hater or basher. Far from it if you've followed my posts in the past. But "3rd time just must be the charm" doesn't cut it! Rosario and Buxton aren't ready yet. Yet. What is so wrong about penciling Hicks in to AAA to work on his game, and, oh, I don't know, earn and prove his way in to a ML job this time?

 

What I'm AFRAID they WILL DO:

 

Give Hicks the job and hope. Robinson will be a fall back option if anyone gets hurt or performs like white-can Butera when he should be a 6th OF option. Or march Santana back out there on a 60/40 or 70/30 CF/SS split like last season. And based on last season, that would probably be the better option.

[Twodogs]

Well Maybe Shaffer found some undetectable HGH for this season and they can start him in Center and use Hicks as the 4th OF'er.  Giving Shaffer a couple of nights off in Center and Hunter a few nights off in Right and Arcia a night or two in Left.  Then if Hicks proves he can hit then maybe slowly but surely he steps in and takes over in Center more full time.  Putting HIcks back down in the minors is a waste of time as those spots need to be used by the guys who have potential still.  Hicks would be just blocking someone else's progression.  I don't think Buxton is ready yet. I think Buxton will need a full season at AA or AAA and then be the Twins successor for 2016.  I think they should use Shaffer as the primary about 65 - 70 percent of the starts in April and use Hicks all over the place to get some at bats.  Then if Hicks performs decently start to dwindle Shaffers at bats down and start increasing Hicks.  If both hit .180 up till June then put Santana back out there for the rest of the season Until Buxton is ready in 2016, hopefully

[Dantes929]

Hicks has shown himself to be quite competent as a right handed batter against lefties.   He has shown very little competence facing right handed pitching.    Platoon and utility has value and odds are that is how he will contribute if he is to stay in the league.   I would love if he proved me wrong but batting .275 in AAA for a month or two from the left side is not going to prove anything in terms of his ability to handle big league pitching from that side.   Of course first he has to bat .275 from the left side in AAA which is a coin flip.  Like I said, I hope he proves me wrong.     I still think, without being able to prove, that if he had stuck batting righty from the get go we would not be having this discussion and would have been fine with him as full time center fielder til Buxton arrives.

[jorgenswest]

Schafer was not viewed as a good defensive centerfielder in Atlanta or Houston. Those were reports we saw as he came to Minnesota. I am not sure what happened in two months that he is now viewed as a good defensive CF. Perhaps it is in comparison to the guys the Twins have played in the outfield the last two years.

 

If he was a good defensive CF, he doesn't get DFA'd twice. He is DFA'd because he can't hit well enough to play a corner and his defense in CF isn't good enough to maintain a fourth OF job.

 

He helps a team with his base running and late inning defensive sub on a corner. That fifth OF role worked when teams carried 10-11 pitchers.

 

It will be an encouraging sign when the Twins have enough talent to force his third DFA. Meanwhile he is good enough to make the roster and be in the starting line up conversation for a bad team.

[dxpavelka]

I keep reading about Rosario's amazing AFL stint. Interestingly, we never hear that Max Kepler's OPS with Salt River was 50 points higher. So if Rosario was that amazing, then Kepler must be superlative.

 

Or maybe we just want Rosario to be better than he really was last year?

Or maybe we realize that Kepler's probably never going to be a centerfielder and thus is not relevant to the current discussion of the 2015 season.