http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=ss

 

In front of him are Correa, LIndor, Seager, Crawford and Russell. Which are 5 pretty high upside short stops.

 

"The Gordon family name is a well-known one in baseball. Nick's father Tom is a former All-Star pitcher and brother Dee made his first All-Star team a year ago. The younger Gordon had been a mainstay on the showcase circuit for some time, then lived up to his advanced billing by being taken No. 5 overall in the 2014 Draft and having a solid professional debut in the Appalachian League.

At one point in time, Gordon could have been taken as a pitcher or a shortstop, but he focused solely on the infield during his senior season. His efforts proved to Twins evaluators that there's no question he can stay at the premium position. His arm used to fire low-90s fastballs from the mound, he has great hands and outstanding instincts. At the plate, Gordon hits to all fields from the left side of the plate. Right now, he's more of a gap hitter, but he should add some strength and a little power as he matures. While not a burner, Gordon does run well.

The Twins thought enough of Gordon and his makeup to skip him over the Gulf Coast League and send him to the Appy League last summer, so he's already on a faster track than many high school draftees entering the 2015 season."

 

I really liked the Gordon pick last year - only wanted Rodon and Aiken more.  Hopefully, Gordon has a great year this season.

 

Wonder how far Jorge Polanco would be outside the top 10? Probably in the mid-teens would be my guess.

 

Nice to have a couple decent prospects at SS. Hopefully, both Gordon and Polanco can stick there.

In all the years I have followed minor league prospects I can't remember a SS group this deep. So much talent. Excited to see what kind of numbers Gordon will put up this year.

I am apprehensive about Gordon this year.  I agreed with the pick but didn't love the pick.  He seems like a boom or bust type that could start gaining steam like Russell did in the lower minors.  He's not the same type of player but if he hits like his potential says then he could be a star.

In all the years I have followed minor league prospects I can't remember a SS group this deep. So much talent. Excited to see what kind of numbers Gordon will put up this year.

Yeah, and Baez graduated so he isn't on it.  Probably the best prospect group since the early 90s, I would guess.  That said, a few of those guys are going to end up at third.

I really liked the Gordon pick last year - only wanted Rodon and Aiken more.  Hopefully, Gordon has a great year this season.

 

Rodon terrifies me.  The White sox have used a very different method of acquiring players and they are nailing it.  They could be contenders this year with the rotation they have and they have enough bats.

The ones I wanted before Gordon that were still available were Turner, Jackson, Conforto and Beede.

The ones I wanted before Gordon that were still available were Turner, Jackson, Conforto and Beede.

I remember some of those discussions.  Turner was seen as a "safe" pick, like Michael and most people really didn't want him.  Beede scared the crap out of me with his control.  I didn't want him at all.  I don't remember much discussion about Conforto.  Jackson had a bunch of support.  (I think the Twins were also linked to Newcomb and Finnegan).  I think I probably had Gordon first, Jackson second, Troussant third, IIRC.  

I liked Jackson, Holmes, Toussaint, and was coming around on Freeland.

 

Scouts make way too much of bloodlines IMO.

Question: If the draft were done-over today, would Gordon crack the 1st round?

Question: If the draft were done-over today, would Gordon crack the 1st round?

Is this a serious question?  Sometimes internet humor misses me.

Is this a serious question?  Sometimes internet humor misses me.

Serious question.

 

84.5% bust for players who did what Gordon did in the Appy league at the age he did it, according to JAVIER.

Serious question.

 

84.5% bust for players who did what Gordon did in the Appy league at the age he did it, according to JAVIER.

Well, ESPN and mlb.com both had him in their top 40ish prospects so, yeah, if the draft was redone he'd probably stay in the top 5 again.  

Serious question.

 

84.5% bust for players who did what Gordon did in the Appy league at the age he did it, according to JAVIER.

Compared to an overall bust rate of what, 99%?

Compared to an overall bust rate of what, 99%?

94.3% bust rate of all players in Rookie ball.

 

Dunno about 1st round picks in Rookie ball, specifically. I assume the average bust% for 1st rounders is lower than the overall by a lot.

 

edit: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/15/5871621/mlb-prospects-k-bb-iso-javier-yearly

Edited February 3, 201511 yr by Willihammer

94.3% bust rate of all players in Rookie ball.

 

Dunno about 1st round picks in Rookie ball, specifically. I assume the average bust% for 1st rounders is lower than the overall by a lot.

 

edit: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/15/5871621/mlb-prospects-k-bb-iso-javier-yearly

 

I'm curious what the rate is specifically for high shool SS/2B/3B/CF drafted in the first couple rounds. Remove pitchers and longshots from the metric, as well as positions that require considerably different skillsets or type of offensive/defensive prodution.

94.3% bust rate of all players in Rookie ball.

 

Dunno about 1st round picks in Rookie ball, specifically. I assume the average bust% for 1st rounders is lower than the overall by a lot.

 

edit: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/15/5871621/mlb-prospects-k-bb-iso-javier-yearly

I would be curious to know what Buxton's and Mauer's bust estimations were after their first seasons at Rookie ball.

I'm curious what the rate is specifically for high shool SS/2B/3B/CF drafted in the first couple rounds. Remove pitchers and longshots from the metric, as well as positions that require considerably different skillsets or type of offensive/defensive prodution.

Realistically, there probably wouldn't be much of a difference.  HS kids that are drafted only play short, CF, catcher or pitcher.  Very few play elsewhere.  They get moved to the corners by the orgs.  But if they are good enough to get drafted, they are so much better than the other kids they play with that they'll play those important positions.  IIRC, even Billy Butler played short at his high school

Question: If the draft were done-over today, would Gordon crack the 1st round?

Mlb.com has Gordon ranked #33 and has 3 other 2014 draft prospects ranked ahead of him. Law has Gordon ranked #43 and also only has 3 2014 draft prospects ahead of him. He would still go top 5 I'm guessing.

I would be curious to know what Buxton's and Mauer's bust estimations were after their first seasons at Rookie ball.

There's a tool at the bottom of the page where you plug in the basic stats for a player (Age, league, PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SO) and it outputs similar seasons and bust rates.

 

For Mauer the bust% is 85.7%. 75.0% for Buxton using his GCL figures. The sample of similar seasons is quite small (7 and 4) compared to Gordon (239)

Edited February 3, 201511 yr by Willihammer

There's a tool at the bottom of the page where you plug in the basic stats for a player (Age, league, PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SO) and it outputs similar seasons and bust rates.

 

For Mauer the bust% is 85.7%. 75.0% for Buxton using his GCL figures. The sample of similar seasons is quite small (7 and 4) compared to Gordon (239)

Thanks. The tool didn't work for me this afternoon. It is working now and fun to play with. Thanks for sharing.