Article: What Will It Take For Twins To Contend In 2015?

[mikelink45]

A youth rebellion that throws the old guys out no matter the contract and we see Sano, Santana, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Buxton, Arcia, Hunter, Pinto with Meyer, May, Hughes, Santana, and Berrios.  Burdi, Perkins, Reed and fill in from there.

 

Not what I expect to happen, but what I see is needed if we are truly going to push against slow change and a celebration of being a game over .500

[Dantes929]

Vargas should not regress much if at all.  His stat lines are below what he did in the minors.  He got off to a fast start which many remember but then tailed off.    I would expect him to have about the same stats lines if he went a whole year batting.

[Dantes929]

We were 14-18 against the AL East and 36-40 against the Central so the big demon switched from the right coast to the left coast and we did not beat up on the Central.  Not just the AL West but San Fran and La as well.   California was not kind to us..   .  

[Thrylos]

What will it take?  In order of importance:

 

• Attitude change: play to win every game and hate it when you lose.  Do not hang your arms over the dugout railing in the seventh inning, do not go belly up when you play the AL East.  Believe that your goal to win every single game and do it.  And hate losing.  And if you are in a management position make sure that everyone gets it and gives 100% and if they do not get it, get rid of them.
• Chemistry.  It is a team.  No teammates thrown under the bus, no players thrown under the bus.  Especially the ones who are rookies and need their confidence build up to perform.  Coaching and throwing someone under the bus are two different things.  Coach, do not blame.   If players (and coaches/managers) do not get this, get rid of them.
• Take the best 25 up North out of Spring Training and play the best 9 most of the time.

 

And then hope for good years, fast starts, etc.   Unless you build a winning mentality in the organization, you are not going to win.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Thrylos

[jimmer]

Vargas should not regress much if at all.  His stat lines are below what he did in the minors.  He got off to a fast start which many remember but then tailed off.    I would expect him to have about the same stats lines if he went a whole year batting.

How close are you talking?  Within 10 OPS points?  Or are you going by wRC+ or what?

[Dantes929]

Jimmers I look at baseball reference and don't see wRC+ stats for minor leaguers..   I  see Vargas 2014 year in the minors was close to his career in the minors in BA and OPS which was .288 and .854.    This is quite a bit better than his year with the Twins which was .274 and .772.    Doesn't seem that far fetched to expect that he can continue to do slightly worse than his minor league numbers in the majors.   The pitching is better but he should be getting better with more at bats as well.     He was lumped with D Santana as guys that are likely to regress but I just don't see it in Vargas.    Santana on the other hand had way better results in the majors than he did in the minors in both BA and OPS.     I hope he can keep it up but tend to believe the minor league numbers more than the major league numbers.   Valencia comes to mind.   Different players but I don't expect those same lines from Santana in 2015.   If he just plays good D and gives us .274 BA and .772 OPS I would be thrilled.

[jimmer]

Jimmers I look at baseball reference and don't see wRC+ stats for minor leaguers..   

FYI, that info you can't find at B-Ref is available at Fangraphs.

[Dr. Evil]

What will it take?  In order of importance:

 

• Attitude change: play to win every game and hate it when you lose.  Do not hang your arms over the dugout railing in the seventh inning, do not go belly up when you play the AL East.  Believe that your goal to win every single game and do it.  And hate losing.  And if you are in a management position make sure that everyone gets it and gives 100% and if they do not get it, get rid of them.
• Chemistry.  It is a team.  No teammates thrown under the bus, no players thrown under the bus.  Especially the ones who are rookies and need their confidence build up to perform.  Coaching and throwing someone under the bus are two different things.  Coach, do not blame.   If players (and coaches/managers) do not get this, get rid of them.
• Take the best 25 up North out of Spring Training and play the best 9 most of the time.

 

And then hope for good years, fast starts, etc.   Unless you build a winning mentality in the organization, you are not going to win.

I like this post. My favorite part is "Take the best 25 north out of spring training and play the best 9 most of the time." Consistency with the starting lineup IMHO is a good thing.

 

In recent years I could hear circus music playing in my head as the announcers rolled out today's lineup and batting order.

 

I also do not agree that in the last game of a series the manager is doing a good thing by "emptying the bench" and "getting them all in there" as has been the case under recent management.

 

I also very much agree with your comments about a winning attitude and chemistry.

[jimmer]

I like this post. My favorite part is "Take the best 25 north out of spring training and play the best 9 most of the time." Consistency with the starting lineup IMHO is a good thing.

 

In recent years I could hear circus music playing in my head as the announcers rolled out today's lineup and batting order.

 

I also do not agree that in the last game of a series the manager is doing a good thing by "emptying the bench" and "getting them all in there" as has been the case under recent management.

 

I also very much agree with your comments about a winning attitude and chemistry.

I concur with this post with the possible exception of the last part.  IMO, the winning attitude and chemistry, that comes from actually winning.  

[Craig Arko]

Your 2015 Minnesota Twins: Better winning through Chemistry.

[Dr. Evil]

Your 2015 Minnesota Twins: Better winning through Chemistry.

Not just chemistry. Also, a balanced breakfast including juice, toast, milk and delicious Trix cereal!!

[D. Hocking]

Not just chemistry. Also, a balanced breakfast including juice, toast, milk and delicious Trix cereal!!

 

Is this the rally bunny from last year? - if so, not sure Trix is the way to go --

 

http://40.media.tumblr.com/195cb6a86ae114692b61d65263bf10a0/tumblr_n1z29sTcIx1rlb49io1_500.png

 

and I suspect this one has gone stale by this point:

 

http://sportzwriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Z0021064.jpg

[dxpavelka]

I give the Twins little or no chance to contend for the division title.  I fully expect them to win half their games, but that ain't going to be enough, sports fans.  I think the biggest problem this team will have in 2015 is, there are too many starting pitchers under contract.  The Twins will have to decide early which pitchers will get Spring training innings.  I think guys like Berrios and Meyer will not be given a chance to break through this "good enough" wall to win spots in the spring.  The Twins can't win the division without 5 quality starters, and they are going to break camp with only 3 (Hughes, Santana, Gibson).

"I think the biggest problem this team will have in 2015 is, there are too many starting pitchers under contract."  Said no general manager or manager in the history of baseball.

[jimmer]

"I think the biggest problem this team will have in 2015 is, there are too many starting pitchers under contract."  Said no general manager or manager in the history of baseball.

That reminds me of when the team was bragging back in the offseason prior to the 2011 season about having six quality major league starters and only five spots in the rotation and what a good problem that was.  

 

Oops.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That reminds me of when the team was bragging back in the offseason prior to the 2011 season about having six quality major league starters and only five spots in the rotation and what a good problem that was.

Ah yes, those halcyon days of Kevin Slowey pitching out of the bullpen.

 

That 2011 rotation proved so solid, the only tweak it needed for 2012 was Jason Marquis!

[jimmer]

Ah yes, those halcyon days of Kevin Slowey pitching out of the bullpen.

 

That 2011 rotation proved so solid, the only tweak it needed for 2012 was Jason Marquis!

yep, when he lost the spring training rotation competition spot by having the best spring training ERA of the bunch :-)

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

There's only one way this team can return to contention

 

 

[James Richter]

So much depends on which players actually get the most time. Neglecting May/Meyer or Pinto in favor of prolonged attention to so-so veterans like Milone/Pelfrey & Suzuki will lower the potential of the team. And I'm skeptical that the projected OF can catch enough fly balls to enable the pitching staff to reach the ERAs that they deserve. With an average OF defense, I think a .500-ish record would be well within reach. As it is, I think 78 wins is probably the best we can expect.

 

(Ironically, alternating DL stints from Hunter and Arcia might be a net positive for team's performance.)

[Thegrin]

The things I look for when searching for a better team:

* Batters that hit in the clutch.

* Starting pitchers that strand runners.

* Infielders that can turn double plays.

* A relief corps that holds the line after the 6th inning.

* Wins at the end of the day.

[by jiminy]

Baseball Prospectus projects them to have the worst record in the league, thanks to the worst pitching in the league.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

This seems a little beyond something Molitor can fix.

To make the playoffs, several pitchers will have to seriously outperform expectations.

I don't think it's impossible -- If Hughes stays superb, there are some pitchers on the roster with upside. But it would take a bunch of them making major, major leaps compared to last year.

Nolasco could do that, if the reason for his bad season was injuries.

Not sure who else is going to jump much. The only scenario would be Meyer and May suddenly improving a couple levels. But pitchers don't tend to make huge leaps in control all of a sudden. Or master a new pitch all of a sudden.

But could it happen? Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, Meyer, and May, all below 4.0 ERA? Sure. But it would be a very, very, very pleasant surprise.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Your 2015 Minnesota Twins: Better winning through Chemistry.

 

I'm not sure another BALCO scandal is what baseball needs

[diehardtwinsfan]

Jimmers I look at baseball reference and don't see wRC+ stats for minor leaguers..   I  see Vargas 2014 year in the minors was close to his career in the minors in BA and OPS which was .288 and .854.    This is quite a bit better than his year with the Twins which was .274 and .772.    Doesn't seem that far fetched to expect that he can continue to do slightly worse than his minor league numbers in the majors.   The pitching is better but he should be getting better with more at bats as well.     He was lumped with D Santana as guys that are likely to regress but I just don't see it in Vargas.    Santana on the other hand had way better results in the majors than he did in the minors in both BA and OPS.     I hope he can keep it up but tend to believe the minor league numbers more than the major league numbers.   Valencia comes to mind.   Different players but I don't expect those same lines from Santana in 2015.   If he just plays good D and gives us .274 BA and .772 OPS I would be thrilled.

Here's the issue with Vargas... Brock said it the other day.  His plate discipline went away when he came up here last year.  To some extent, that's normal.  It happens to most prospects I'd guess.  Guys like Arcia (who didn't really develop that until AAA) struggle a bit more there and I suspect that's part of the reason why he hasn't quite lived up to the expectations (side note, speaking of breakouts, I think he has a big one this year).  With Vargas, his plate discipline has always existed.  Now that he's used to playing up here, Vargas won't be dealing with the nerves and those types of things.  If he simply returns to his old habits, I don't think he regresses much at all and may come closer to his minor league numbers.  He may have some bumps in the road (that's pretty normal for a young guy), but compared to Santana, I think he's got much better odds succeeding than he does failing.

[GCTF]

There's only one way this team can return to contention

Getting Denard back?

Edited January 30, 2015 by GCTF

[Dave T]

Baseball Prospectus projects them to have the worst record in the league, thanks to the worst pitching in the league.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

This seems a little beyond something Molitor can fix.

To make the playoffs, several pitchers will have to seriously outperform expectations.

I don't think it's impossible -- If Hughes stays superb, there are some pitchers on the roster with upside. But it would take a bunch of them making major, major leaps compared to last year.

Nolasco could do that, if the reason for his bad season was injuries.

Not sure who else is going to jump much. The only scenario would be Meyer and May suddenly improving a couple levels. But pitchers don't tend to make huge leaps in control all of a sudden. Or master a new pitch all of a sudden.

But could it happen? Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, Meyer, and May, all below 4.0 ERA? Sure. But it would be a very, very, very pleasant surprise.

I have little doubt that Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer and May are all capable of a below-4.0 ERA.  I just don't think Meyer and May are going to be given the chance to prove it.  Too many starting pitchers under contract already.

[jimmer]

I have little doubt that Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer and May are all capable of a below-4.0 ERA.  I just don't think Meyer and May are going to be given the chance to prove it.  Too many starting pitchers under contract already.

If ERA was a stat that judged pitcher's ability solely on what they do, that MIGHT be true.  With our defense, there's no way they all have an ERA under 4.00.  One, maybe and he'd have to pitch out of his mind like Hughes did last year.

 

''a pitcher with a large ERA-FIP gap probably plays in front of a very good or very bad defense.'

 

Our TWINS rotation ERA-FIP gap was over a full run, and in the direction you don't want it to go. That's really bad.  The next largest gap going in the direction you don't want it to go was just the slightest hair over half a run. at .51)

 

As far as why ERA is not the best stat to judge a pitcher, here is a good read:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/era/

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer

[jorgenswest]

What does it mean to contend?

 

To me, a team isn't contending if they haven't spent a day in first place (or even in one of the wild card slots) in the previous two weeks

 

It isn't contending if an occasional win streak puts you a few games a way from the second wild card spot. It is possible to bring yourself into contention by continuing that win streak, but teams have to get there.

 

Being a competitive is a lower bar. Competitive teams score more runs than they give up.

 

The Twins have neither contended or been competitive in quite a while. Various objective sources do not project the Twins to contend or be competitive this year either.

[Twodogs]

What will it take for the Twins to contend?  It will take winning more than they lose

[laloesch]

I give the Twins little or no chance to contend for the division title.  I fully expect them to win half their games, but that ain't going to be enough, sports fans.  I think the biggest problem this team will have in 2015 is, there are too many starting pitchers under contract.  The Twins will have to decide early which pitchers will get Spring training innings.  I think guys like Berrios and Meyer will not be given a chance to break through this "good enough" wall to win spots in the spring.  The Twins can't win the division without 5 quality starters, and they are going to break camp with only 3 (Hughes, Santana, Gibson).

 

That is my fear as well.  I think Ryan is absolutely serious that Pelfrey and Stauffer will get every chance to win that fifth spot along with the rest of the candidates.  In my opinion that's a mistake.  

 

I get the competition thing but they should have cut their losses with Mike last season.  They also should have shipped out Nolasco last winter as well.  Especially after his tweets last fall about not wanting to be in Minnesota.  Ricky is not happy in Minnesota and you can see it on the mound and in the clubhouse.  I don't believe he was afflicted wit an injury for most of the season last year.  I call BS!    

 

I would much rather see a starting rotation composed of Hughes Santana and Gibson with the remaining candidates slugging it out for the final two spots (Milone, May and Meyer).  Berrios could also be in the mix by seasons end.    

[Dantes929]

What does it mean to contend?

 

To me, a team isn't contending if they haven't spent a day in first place (or even in one of the wild card slots) in the previous two weeks

 

It isn't contending if an occasional win streak puts you a few games a way from the second wild card spot. It is possible to bring yourself into contention by continuing that win streak, but teams have to get there.

 

Being a competitive is a lower bar. Competitive teams score more runs than they give up.

 

The Twins have neither contended or been competitive in quite a while. Various objective sources do not project the Twins to contend or be competitive this year either.

No such thing as objective when it comes to baseball.   All have bias.    The 06 Twins didn't contend until the last three days of the season?   Contending does not mean the same as competitive because there are factors that are out of a team's control.    87 team would not have been contending if there was one of the top East teams in the Division.       Competitive to me does not mean coming close and then losing.  It means capable of winning and then either winning or losing.     I am happy to have a competitive team and take my chances on contending.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I studied projections, player models, and then compared it to division opponents.

 

After hours of grueling study and number-crunching, I have determined that this is what it will take to return the Twins to competitiveness in 2015: