Article: What Will It Take For Twins To Contend In 2015?

[Nick Nelson]

In his first full season as manager of the Minnesota Twins, Tom Kelly guided to the team to the first World Series title in franchise history.

 

After Kelly retired in 2001, Ron Gardenhire took the helm, and in his first season he led the Twins to the American League Championship Series.

 

Your move, Paul Molitor.The Twins have been in a losing funk for such a long time that it can be difficult for fans to remember just how quickly fortunes sometimes turn. But it can happen, and it has. The dramatic shifts that have coincided with the last two managerial changes provide evidence enough of that.

 

Kelly originally stepped in midway through the 1986 season, with the Twins on their way to 91 losses. At the time, they had not finished above .500 in eight years, but the club experienced a renaissance under Kelly, capturing two championships in his first five seasons.

 

After this successful stretch, they fell back into a rut, and by the end of the 90s they were caught in an extended losing spell similar to the one they are presently trying to escape. The Twins lost 90 or more games every year from 1997 through 2000, and while it appeared they were headed for a division title in 2001, they collapsed in the second half and fell short.

 

Gardenhire took over the following year, and we all know the rest of that story.

 

In light of this history, Molitor shouldn't feel too intimidated as he takes the reigns and seeks to steer the Twins out of the darkness.

 

Despite the timing, it likely wasn't the changes in leadership that primarily drove these last two turnarounds, but rather influxes of prospect talent and emergences of young star players, as well as savvy veteran additions.

 

The team is in a comparable position now as Molitor embarks on his journey, so it's not hard to draw a parallel and envision a similar outcome. It stands to reason that the new skipper himself -- uninterested in sitting through multiple years of stagnation -- is doing so.

 

Will the resurgence be as abrupt as it was in those aforementioned instances? Of course, the answer is 'probably not.' The Twins need to get back to the .500 range before a deep postseason run becomes a consideration. Talk of a worst-to-first swing in the Central is mostly just rosy optimism that always tends to manifest at this time of year.

 

Mostly.

 

It's hardly unthinkable that the Twins could find themselves in contention for the division late in the season. Obviously they need to stay healthy and get a lot of good individual performances. But, in a broader sense, two things need to happen:

 

1) Fast start. The team needs to put itself in a competitive mindset with a surprisingly strong start, and a record at or above .500 heading into July. This would set them up as "buyers" at the deadline, allowing them to upgrade in areas of need midway through the season. It would also make more urgent the calling up of prospects who could make a positive impact (e.g., Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano).

 

2) Weak division. This part, unfortunately, isn't really in the Twins' control. During his Q&A at the Winter Meltdown event, team president Dave St. Peter opined that the AL Central might be the strongest division in baseball. Well... that needs to be not the case. Not so much because the Twins need to be able to come out on top -- the addition of an extra wild-card spot somewhat negates that aspect -- but because they need a team or two they can beat up on and pile up wins against.

 

In 2010, when the Twins won the division, they went a combined 26-10 against Chicago and Kansas City. In 2009 they went 24-12 against those same two clubs. Between '02 and '03 they won 29 of 38 games against the Tigers.

 

With baseball's unbalanced schedule, taking care of business against the division's bottom-feeders is critical to contending for October. For the last few years, the Twins have been that bottom-feeder; they need to swap out of that role.

 

It's a little difficult to envision such a scenario this year -- the Royals and Tigers ain't what they used to be, and the White Sox and Indians both look pretty good on paper -- but you never know.

 

What do you think? What will it take for the Twins to be competitive in the division and in the American League this year?

 

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[goulik]

Keys to the fast start:

Dozier, Plouffe, Santana, and Vargas need to show last year was the real deal and play like they did a year ago.

Mauer's sweet stroke returns to make up for Suzuki's return to Earth

The Outfield comes together AKA Hicks becomes what he should have been two years ago

Pitching! Santana and Hughes lead the pitching staff back to respectability allowing the offense to carry us

Sano and Buxton stay healthy so they can get called up

[beckmt]

1.  Twins need a strong start to look like contenders

        a.  Starting pitching is better than expected

        b.  Nolasco returns to form or is traded and May and Meyer step up as starters.

        c.  Bullpen is better than advertised and hold leads, not giving them up and starting into the here we go again.

        d.  Santana and Escobar perform to last years levels or close.

        e.  Vargas becomes a force at DH.

        f.  Hunter provides the veteran leadership expected and performs at a level close to 2014.

        g.  Hicks or Schaffer take control of the centerfield job until Buxton arrives or Santana proves he can play there

        h.  Arcia improves to play a vital offensive role in 2015.

        I.   Mauer returns to close to form from 2000's.

        j.   Dozier and Plouffe have seasons at least as good as 2014.

 

Not all of these have to happen, but most of them will have to be there to get the Twins over .500 in 2015.

Likely - no,  possible yes - but feel this is more like a 2016 possibility.

[nytwinsfan]

I don't see a reasonable scenario under which this happens this year. If everything goes right, maybe in 2016.

[bird]

I don't see a reasonable scenario under which this happens this year. If everything goes right, maybe in 2016.

I agree with this. On paper, even if 75% of the good things happen in terms of avoiding regression, emerging production from youngsters, and rebounding performance from vets, the four other teams still look a little better on paper. But injuries and disappointments happen for other teams too. If Detroit is forced to go with Buck Farmer and Lobstein in the rotation because of injuries, for example...

[nicksaviking]

I agree with the fast start, this team needs confidence.  I don't think the Twins will contend, but I also think the AL Central is going to stink this year.  KC played over their head last year, I don't think they play at that same level if they continue to have a below average offense.  Detriot's bubble is ready to burst any minute, though if their vets hang on they could stretch it out another couple years.  Chicago really improved this year and if all their free agent parts play around their expectations, they could be good, but that doesn't usually happen. 

 

In other words, I think a 78 win team may be able to contend for much of the year and I don't think 78 wins is that overly optimistic for the Twins.

[JB_Iowa]

A fast start is also important because 22 of the first 25 games are within the division.

 

Winning ways in April could go a long way toward making the division seem weaker.

[Dantes929]

If everything goes right you can start printing WS tickets right now.    Of course not everything has gone right for any team in the history of the game.   I remember in the final few weeks of 2006 all the experts were asked what had to happen for the Twins to catch the Tigers and every one of them said it was absolutely essential that Santana run the table and win every game he pitched.    Santana lost 2 our of his 3 starts but the twins went 13-7.    In 2008 we were coming off a losing season and lost by far our best pitcher and our best outfielder but got to game 163 by having enough guys step up at other positions and that is what has to happen here.    If we regress at 3 or 4 spots but improve, not even dramatically but just improve, 8 other spots it can make all the difference.   On paper we just need more things to go right than the other teams.     Our rotation will be Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Gibson with at least 3 very viable candidates for the 5th spot.   In a good way I am not so sure that May, Meyer, and Milone can't outpitch Santana, Nolasco and Gibson so one of the keys from my viewpoint is that we have the best guys pitching for most of the time.   No way to really measure this but it just feels like we can't wait til August to see how things shake out.  

[Dr. Evil]

The offense was decent and should be the same or even a little better this year. I could see the defense being slightly better, but not vastly better. I am optimistic that the pitching rotation can be a bit more stable this year and thus keep the heat off of the bullpen. This should yield dividends for the offense as well because they won't have to come from behind as much. The pen appears to be a bit up in the air with quite a few good options competing for spots. The new coaching staff seems like they could be good. We have some good prospects nearing or at being ready.

 

My guess is that they pick up 8 more wins based on these things and finish 78-84 and avoid another 90 loss season. 

[HitInAPinch]

First, it's the manager that sets the tone.  Billy Martin was a tough guy.  Tom Kelly was a tough guy.  And both hammered the fundamentals into the players heads.  Ron Gardenhire started out that way, but morphed into a "Players Manager".  As soon as he put the weight back on and grew a beard last season, he should have been fired. 

 

I see Paul Molitor as an old-school kinda manager.  It all starts there.

[ashbury]

The complicated answer: an awful lot more has to break right than break badly in order for them to contend.  The ceilings are there at most positions, the risks of under-performance are there too.

 

The simple answer: Starting Pitching.  Starting Pitching.  Starting Pitching.  If this highly variable commodity comes through, weaknesses elsewhere could be finessed.  If you're looking for a key, a few weeks into the season, pick a stat you like, even a crude measure such as Quality Starts, and see if 4 out of 5 starts are solid each time around.

 

OK, so it took me a few more words to express my simple answer.

[ashbury]

As soon as he put the weight back on and grew a beard last season, he should have been fired. 

Tommy Lasorda's winning edge came from never growing a beard?  Who knew?

[jimmer]

A miracle :-)

[diehardtwinsfan]

contend?  No, I don't see it.  Pretend? Yes, I think that happens.  I think .500 is a pretty reasonable goal and they have talent to do it.  What needs to happen:

 

1.  Nolasco and Mauer rebound. (Good chance)

2.  Arcia takes that big step forward on both offense and defense (Good chance offensively, not sure about defense).

3.  Dozier, Gibson, and Plouffe make small incremental improvements in their game (good chance).

4.  Suzuki, Santana, and Vargas don't regress that badly (not sure about this one).

5.  May has a good first season (50/50).

6.  Hunter and Santana play how their paid (50/50).

 

If all of these happen, they can contend.  In reality, some won't.  But I do think they will take a big step forward.

[nater79a]

Starting pitching is the most important thing. Nolasco needs to rebound and Gibson needs to be more consistent.

 

Also, we need to play better against the AL East & West. As Nick said, the Twins have often been competitive against the AL Central. Outside the division is another story.

[stringer bell]

There are a lot of "ifs" that have to work out positively for the Twins to contend.  It could happen, and they are due for a surge.  A nice, long winning streak early could give them confidence, especially if much of the streak is against AL Central teams.  The Twins also need to build a home-field advantage, winning 10-15% more games at home than they win on the road.  That would mean that the team should fit the ballpark and have a bit of an edge when playing at Target Field.

[ND-Fan]

The Twins need to play good baseball from the get go! If the Twins can get Mauer to return near his career averages and Nolasco to pitch close to the numbers he had when they signed him. With the the young players like Santanna, Dozier, Plouffe, producing like they did last year. Then for Arcia, Vargass, and Hicks keep hitting like they did last fall the Twins will have very good offensive team. The starting pitching needs for pitchers pitch effectively like they showed last year on consistent basis because I believe the twins bull pen will be very effective. Contrary to predictions if this club can stay healthy and this group of players play like they can play could be very exciting team to watch and could contend if things broke their way but should improve to 500 team. Yes AL central looks to be one of the best divisions in baseball but funning thing about baseball what happens during the season very few times happens as it is laid out on paper. The Twins have had several bad years but I also believe if the Twins would have been healthy couple of those years outcome could have been much better than final result we got. Also this time around the Twins are much deeper than they were in last four years when somebody gets injured now talent level at triple A and Double A is much deeper and may have player that could perform better than who they replaced but still needed time in minors to perfect their baseball skills. I believe the Twins are much closer to contending than experts like to think. Also the change of Molitor and Hunter in club house is going to change how the Twins play. My guess is number crunchers are off because team numbers are so low based on history last couple years because of all the change this club has gone through and being forced to play some of these kids when they were not ready to play at this level or playing out of position their offensive numbers suffered because of it. I got excited last fall watching this group players play baseball they were fun to watch and looked like they had upside potential to become a better team. So I am looking very forward to this years team.

[dxpavelka]

"Will the resurgence be as abrupt as it was in those aforementioned instances? Of course, the answer is 'probably not."  Of course the answer to the same question in those afforementioned instances was also 'probably not'.

[dxpavelka]

The complicated answer: an awful lot more has to break right than break badly in order for them to contend.  The ceilings are there at most positions, the risks of under-performance are there too.

 

The simple answer: Starting Pitching.  Starting Pitching.  Starting Pitching.  If this highly variable commodity comes through, weaknesses elsewhere could be finessed.  If you're looking for a key, a few weeks into the season, pick a stat you like, even a crude measure such as Quality Starts, and see if 4 out of 5 starts are solid each time around.

 

OK, so it took me a few more words to express my simple answer.

Pretty much the same story for every team in the history of baseball.

[amjgt]

1. Fast Start

2. Nolasco 4.00 ERA

3. Highly successful promotions (Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Berrios?)

4. Arcia and Vargas, 25HR each

[luckylager]

If things break their way this year (a majority of players playing up to their potential and no major injuries), they can contend. No harm in being optimistic. Anything can happen and it usually does.

[Dave T]

I give the Twins little or no chance to contend for the division title.  I fully expect them to win half their games, but that ain't going to be enough, sports fans.  I think the biggest problem this team will have in 2015 is, there are too many starting pitchers under contract.  The Twins will have to decide early which pitchers will get Spring training innings.  I think guys like Berrios and Meyer will not be given a chance to break through this "good enough" wall to win spots in the spring.  The Twins can't win the division without 5 quality starters, and they are going to break camp with only 3 (Hughes, Santana, Gibson).

[troyhobbs]

Don't think contending is in the cards yet. The division is about as good as it's been in recent memory and our best player didn't make the all-star game last year and probably never will again now that he's at 1B. This could be the bridge year where they go from terrible to half ways decent but that's about as optimistic as I'll get.

[jimmer]

Today, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs was asked which team out there will take the longest to make the playoffs going forward and his answer was 'maybe the Twins.'

 

In a followup he explained why he said the Twins : 'Prospects fail at a very high rate. Without a front office that can succeed at building a roster around the few that don’t fail, or a really high payroll to allow them to just spend their way back into contention, it’s going to be a while for the Twins.'

 

But then he went on to say that In-N-Out is the most overrated food in the country.

 

So, really, grains of salt here :-)

Edited January 28, 2015 by jimmer

[sploorp]

They all can't win more games.  The wins have to come at somebody's expense.  If all the teams in the central are better, it just means they will all beat up on each other and finish about the same.

 

In spite of everything that people feel needs to be done, for me, the number one thing I will be watching is Hicks' bat.  Will he hit well enough to stay in the line up everyday?

 

He really showed signs of finally figuring it out toward the end of the season last year, so it's definitely possible.

 

Beyond what that would mean offensively, a outfield defense with Hicks seemed much more capable than what they ran out there when he was sent down.

 

Just that one thing alone could have such a positive affect on so much of what ailed the team last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

"Will the resurgence be as abrupt as it was in those aforementioned instances? Of course, the answer is 'probably not."  Of course the answer to the same question in those afforementioned instances was also 'probably not'.

 

That's very true.  I think the 2001 Twins is a good example here personally.  I wouldn't be surprised if they got hot out of the gate.  Who knows. 

[nater79a]

They all can't win more games.  The wins have to come at somebody's expense.  If all the teams in the central are better, it just means they will all beat up on each other and finish about the same.

 

In spite of everything that people feel needs to be done, for me, the number one thing I will be watching is Hicks' bat.  Will he hit well enough to stay in the line up everyday?

 

He really showed signs of finally figuring it out toward the end of the season last year, so it's definitely possible.

 

Beyond what that would mean offensively, a outfield defense with Hicks seemed much more capable than what they ran out there when he was sent down.

 

Just that one thing alone could have such a positive affect on so much of what ailed the team last year.

 

My thoughts exactly. SOMEBODY has to lose when the AL Central teams play each other. Should be a lot of parity.

 

I've got the Twins at 78-84, in last place. BUT, only 11 games behind the Tigers who will win the Central with 89. Also, will predict the Royals to have the biggest slide....4th place at 80-82 (two games clear of the Twins).

[ashbury]

A nice, long winning streak early could give them confidence

Or it could just signify they are now good.

[TheLeviathan]

That's very true.  I think the 2001 Twins is a good example here personally.  I wouldn't be surprised if they got hot out of the gate.  Who knows. 

 

I think that fast start for confidence on a young team is critical.  At the same time, I think the best teams do things consistently and that's where I struggle with this team.

 

The two constants that can best drive your team to success are good pitching and good defense.  I'm pretty sure one of those is already a mess waiting to happen and it could negatively impact the other.  One thing that 2001 team did well was play defense.  They didn't make a lot of mistakes, played good ball, and gave themselves a chance to win a lot of games.  All the talking points Gardy is known for that have actual value to winning baseball.

 

The last few years this team has rolled over bad pitching and bad defense and it has taken them completely out of far too many games.  (And often shattered their confidence and optimism)  If the winning is going to start, we have to stop taking ourselves out of games so quickly and emphatically.

[sthpstm]

Starting pitching is the most important thing. Nolasco needs to rebound and Gibson needs to be more consistent.

 

Also, we need to play better against the AL East & West. As Nick said, the Twins have often been competitive against the AL Central. Outside the division is another story.

 

Agreed- they need to be respectable against the other divisions, including NL.  Their record against the better teams in the West was truly pathetic: 1-19 vs. the A's (1-6), Angels (0-7), Dodgers and Giants.  

Can we beat up on the NL Central at all?  I'd love to see us destroy the Cards and Cubs, and the others.