2015 draft thread

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From Kiley McDaniel:

 

Typical early season type notes on Allard's start today: 3 IP, 91-93, no change ups, varying feel for breaking ball, 8Ks, looked easy.

[gunnarthor]

fangraphs chat today, McDaniel listed his top 5 for the draft (way too early):

1. Brandon Rodgers
T-2. Dillon Tate and Brady Aiken
4. Mike Matuella
5. Any one of about 10-12 guys

[gunnarthor]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/2/8135865/mlb-draft-blotter-kyle-cody-boosts-stock-with-more-velocity

 

An update on a few guys at minor league ball.  RHP Kyle Cody (#19 on mlbpipeline's list) had a great outing for Kentucky.  "Heading into the season, the 6-foot-7, 245-pounder was already projected as a first-round selection. But the big news from his start was that he reportedly topped out at 98 mph – the highest velocity he has registered since arriving in Lexington."  He keeps that up, he won't be #19 much longer.

 

Dillon Tate (#30) "He reportedly sat 94-96 mph and touched 98 in the early innings while showing the usual devastating slider and flashing a solid-average changeup, but tired after the fifth inning, dropping to 92-93 as his command faltered."  I think the question on Tate is whether he can be a starter, but I could be wrong.

 

Ian Happ (#16) "possibly the best pure hitter in the draft – can do with the bat. But this weekend, it's what he didn't do with it that impressed. The switch-hitter went just 2-for-8 in a three-game series against Iowa, but showed exceptional plate discipline by drawing seven walks."  I don't think the Twins will take him but he looks like a pretty solid college bat.

 

Carson Fulmer (#12) had command issues and scouts aren't sure if he can stick in a rotation.  Would be a good reliever.  

 

Michael Matulla (#2) "worked one scoreless inning on 26 pitches against Rider on Sunday night, allowing two hits with one strikeout. He was scratched from making his start the previous week due to forearm tightness – a setback in his quest to answer scouts' questions about his durability – so his 30-pitch limit was a measure designed to ease him back into action. However, he should be ready for a heavier workload for this Friday's start at North Carolina, a game that will draw more than 50 scouts." He probably doesn't drop to the Twins.

 

Kyle Cody is really intriguing.  He could be a big riser and put himself in position to be taken at #6.  

[nytwinsfan]

Although I actually think Happ is a poor fit for the Twins (we don't need another Arcia-like corner outfielder with bad defense or 1B/DH), I am cheering him on because I'd love for him to go in the top 5 and help drop someone like Tate or Aiken to the Twins at 6.
 

Ian Happ (#16) "possibly the best pure hitter in the draft – can do with the bat. But this weekend, it's what he didn't do with it that impressed. The switch-hitter went just 2-for-8 in a three-game series against Iowa, but showed exceptional plate discipline by drawing seven walks."  I don't think the Twins will take him but he looks like a pretty solid college bat.

 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Cubs really like their college hitters. I could see Theo going after him.

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From Kiley McDaniel's chat today:

 

What are your thoughts on Funkhouser?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Seen him 5 or 6 times. Without fail, every time he’s been 91-95 t97, 55-60 SL, 50 CH, command flashes 50, solid chance to be #3 starter, but still some feel issues here and there. I’d guess 8-15 in the first round if he keeps this up.

 

A lot of draft talk on the net lately, even some mock drafts Ive seen. Kiley can you see our Michigan boy Nick Plummer getting inside the top 15 picks this June?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Definitely possible. And dont read mock draft this early. They are completely useless. Some scouting directors haven’t even seen the players people are projecting them to take.

 

Ian Happ – is he top 20 pick and what dose he need to do do hold on to a similar draft position?

 

Kiley McDaniel: He’s playing RF right now but he might be able to play 2B in pro ball. Probably 10-20 right now, maybe top 10 if he gets hot.

 

Does Mantuela’s injury/health issue (Spondylosis) put him in line for a significant drop on draft day?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Not in this crappy draft class

 

Who has the best profile, based on offense only, of D.J. Stewart, Gio Brussa, Chris Shaw and Richie Martin?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Martin is clearly last, other three are all close. I’d go Shaw, Stewart, Brusa.

 

Who would be the best comp. for Brendan Rodgers?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Not an easy one, but the people that like him note some similarities to Tulo. Generally similar to last year’s top prep SS, also from Orlando area, Nick Gordon…but Rodgers is a RHH, has more bat speed/power, less physical projection and less arm…so more just generally the same caliber of player than really the same.

 

How often does an “out of nowhere” (pre-season) guy jump onto first the 2-3 rounds of a draft? Basically, how do guys that you weren’t really expected (and possibly never heard of) before the year started get draft in the first 100 picks?

 

Kiley McDaniel: They get better? if I can make a top 100 for the draft in October, that means I have another 100-200 guys that were in contention or that I know about. All the pop up guys I’ve heard about this year have been in that 250-300 mega-list of draft players. Some come from completely off the radar like Nick Wells last year, but that’s usually under 5 per draft class. Wells didn’t go to many events and went from like 82-85 in the fall to flashing 89-93 in the spring. You can’t predict that.

 

What’s the biggest reason Dillon Tate is moving up draft boards? Any other big risers into the top 15 so far?

 

Kiley McDaniel: He’s an athlete with big stuff that had never started. Now we know the stuff plays in long outing and he can hold his velo and his command has improved. Kinda answered every big question in a few outings.

 

Have you heard anything about Kyler Murray and if he’d seriously accept a signing bonus to play baseball instead of going to Texas A&M? Too early to tell?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a bunch about him back in October

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Sounds like he’ll be open to taking big money in the top 15 picks if his talent warrants that. Still early to know if that’ll happen.

 

Is Daz Cameron all hype or is there actual huge upside there?

 

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a mid first rounder comparable to mid first rounder last year Derek Hill.

[jimmer]

-What are your thoughts on Funkhouser?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Seen him 5 or 6 times. Without fail, every time he’s been 91-95 t97, 55-60 SL, 50 CH, command flashes 50, solid chance to be #3 starter, but still some feel issues here and there. I’d guess 8-15 in the first round if he keeps this up.

 

That was actually my question in the chat.  I asked a followup, but no response.  I will ask the followup next week.

 

- Who would be the best comp. for Brendan Rodgers?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Not an easy one, but the people that like him note some similarities to Tulo. Generally similar to last year’s top prep SS, also from Orlando area, Nick Gordon…but Rodgers is a RHH, has more bat speed/power, less physical projection and less arm…so more just generally the same caliber of player than really the same

 

This KIND of sounds like he's comparing Gordon to Tulo.  Let's hope.

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A few draft notes from Crawford:

 

Tweets:

Florida state's D.J. Stewart went 2/2 today with two HRs and a walk.

 

Walker buehler threw for candy today; two scoreless innings with 2K and 2BB. There are many that I've spoken with who believe buehler is the top pitching prospect in the class, ahead of both Aiken/Matuella. (Crawford disagrees but things he is a good prospect)

 

Crawford also wrote an ESPN (insider article). Here are a few scout notes from it.

 

Scout on Matuellas 26 pitch outing:

“He labored,” an NL Central scout said. “Which shouldn’t come to a surprise to anyone after missing two-plus weeks. It certainly wasn’t a special start by any standard, but it was a necessary building block towards him getting healthy, and here’s hoping we see the version was saw this summer starting this weekend.”

 

Scout on Allard's first outing of the year:

“I doubt I see a better prep pitcher this year [than Allard],” an NL scout said. “It’s probably a lazy comparison but he really does remind me of Brady Aiken, outside of the size. I saw two plus pitches today, and the only complaint I have is I would have liked to see the changeup. I know that pitch is there though, so that’s not as big a deal. There’s a pretty good chance that he’s a special arm assuming he can hold up.”

 

Notes on Tate after the 5-1 loss to Duke:

“The first five innings he looked like a top three pick,” an AL scout said. “The fastball was plus-plus, the slider was plus, and he pulled the string on a couple of changeups, too. The last couple of innings weren’t as impressive, but it’s not a surprise to see a 21 year-old struggling to hold stuff in a game in late February.”

 

He also had notes on buehler, Swanson, fulmer, and bergam.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=2163

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Mayo's article on Rodgers:

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/110349552/path-to-the-draft-top-prospect-brendan-rodgers-puts-the-work-in

 

Callis on Aiken going to IMG Academy:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/110507572/former-top-draft-pick-brady-aiken-enrolls-at-img-academy

[diehardtwinsfan]

Interesting that the consensus seems to be that this class is going to be pretty crappy, but there's some nice options up at the top. The more I think about it, if the Twins want pitching, I hope they go younger and get a HS guy or a guy like Aiken. I'd be happy with a guy like Happ if he can play average defense in the corner as well. Really starting to like Rogers too. Having both Gordon and Rogers in the system would be nice if one failed, and if both succeeded, you can trade the lesser guy for a premium price.

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From Keith Law's chat this week:

 

Assuming Dillon Tate maintains his current pace, is he a dark horse for 1/1?

Klaw (10:07 AM)

 

I thought he was before the season, given the scarcity of legit 1-1 candidates - at that point it was Aiken, Matuella, and if you squinted really hard maybe Rodgers, although I don't think that's the kind of player AZ would target. Tate reminds me a little of Verlander in the latter's junior year - has the stuff, looks right, isn't that refined due to command/control.

 

Can Carson Fulmer stay in the rotation and if so where would you project him?

Klaw (10:13 AM)

 

I believe he'll end up in the bullpen in pro ball due to his delivery.

 

Who are the best college bats in the draft this year? I'm trying to get a sense for the options for the Cubs at 9.

Klaw (10:17 AM)

 

It's a terrible draft for a college bat. Ian Happ at Cincinnati might be the best. Dansby Swanson at Vanderbilt is another top ten type, but that's more based on the potential for him to play shortstop. I saw Richie Martin at Florida the other night - there's a blog post on him somewhere in turnaround at the moment - and he's not at this level. I love Alex Bregman's bat, but he's not a SS long-term.

 

Why isn't Bregman a SS? Range or arm? And does that mean he's destined for 2B?

Klaw (10:24 AM)

 

Range and arm. 40 runner with a 45ish arm. Second base is his best option.

 

How close to MLB ready is Aiken? If the Diamondbacks drafted him, where would he rank among the other top prospect arms?

Klaw (11:09 AM)

 

I'd say between two and three years away. Was always very advanced for his age, and I believe the plan for him at IMG will allow him to pitch a full pro summer this year, which sets him up to reach high-A by next summer if all goes well.

 

Will Aiken consent to be redrafted? If he doesn't, slot might be less than the 5 million he turned down from the Astros.

Klaw (11:12 AM)

 

No, he won't, nor will Nix. I don't think that guarantees he'll get less, though; someone could go over slot for him.

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Chris Crawford had a chat over at baseball prospectus (can't copy/paste the chat) and answered some draft questions.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1245

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BA's college draft prospect week 4 stats are out.

 

Kirby, fulmer, and Tate had all had good weekends. Happ as added another HR and is continuing to make a case that he is worthy of a top 10 pick.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-4-2/

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Draft notes from dodgertown classic including reports on swanson, fulmer, and buehler.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/9/8173999/scouting-the-draft-notes-from-the-dodgertown-classic

[cmb0252]

Interesting that the consensus seems to be that this class is going to be pretty crappy, but there's some nice options up at the top. The more I think about it, if the Twins want pitching, I hope they go younger and get a HS guy or a guy like Aiken. I'd be happy with a guy like Happ if he can play average defense in the corner as well. Really starting to like Rogers too. Having both Gordon and Rogers in the system would be nice if one failed, and if both succeeded, you can trade the lesser guy for a premium price.

I wouldn't say the draft class is crappy, more like vanilla. This year just doesn't have all the big names we are used to. It does have a ton of pitching depth and we all know you can never have to much pitching. I'm really interested in Aiken, Allard, Kirby, Rogers, Tate, Happ,and Cameron. Hopefully a few more players make the leap forward like Tate.

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't say the draft class is crappy, more like vanilla. This year just doesn't have all the big names we are used to. It does have a ton of pitching depth and we all know you can never have to much pitching. I'm really interested in Aiken, Allard, Kirby, Rogers, Tate, Happ,and Cameron. Hopefully a few more players make the leap forward like Tate.

To add to that, McDaniel, the week prior to saying it was "crappy" said something to the effect that it was hard to gauge a draft this far out but assumed it would end up being about average.  So I wouldn't overly worry at this point.

 

In any event, the 2012 draft was supposed to be weak - even at the time of the draft - and the Twins got both Buxton and Berrios out of it.  And the 2010 draft was supposed to be amazing and, while it was pretty top heavy (Harper Machedo Taillon), its depth hasn't really shown up.

[nytwinsfan]

I wouldn't say the draft class is crappy, more like vanilla. This year just doesn't have all the big names we are used to. It does have a ton of pitching depth and we all know you can never have to much pitching. I'm really interested in Aiken, Allard, Kirby, Rogers, Tate, Happ,and Cameron. Hopefully a few more players make the leap forward like Tate.

 

Also keep an eye on Kentucky's Kyle Cody, his 3.43 ERA masks a sub 1.00 WHIP, a .192 avg. against, great peripherals (26K only 3 BB in 21 innings) and he has the build (6'7'' 245 lbs.).  He also throws 97 mph.

[kab21]

I have a secret crush on Cameron right now.

[nytwinsfan]

What sites do you guys use to follow HS ball? Seems like the coverage is (understandably) a lot lighter than college.

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I have a secret crush on Cameron right now.

Twins do like bloodlines and toolsy OFers. He might have one of the highest ceilings, if not the highest, in the draft. If he can put together a good year he will definitely be in the discussion at 6.

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What sites do you guys use to follow HS ball? Seems like the coverage is (understandably) a lot lighter than college.

Perfectgame.org or Twitter. I find twitter to be the most helpful if you dont want to pay for the premium site.

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Also keep an eye on Kentucky's Kyle Cody, his 3.43 ERA masks a sub 1.00 WHIP, a .192 avg. against, great peripherals (26K only 3 BB in 21 innings) and he has the build (6'7'' 245 lbs.).  He also throws 97 mph.

I forgot about Cody. He definitely has some helium right now. Who doesn't love a fastball that can hit 97? Maybe rick Anderson...

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Notes on matuella, buehlet, and more:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/3/10/8183427/2015-mlb-draft-michael-matuella-walker-buehler-injuries-scouting-report

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Stat update from PGs college draft eligible prospects:

 

 

Draft Watch

 

Here is how the players currently ranked among the top 50 of Perfect Game's top 250 draft-eligible prospects have fared so far this season.

 

Hitters

 

Rk. Player Pos. School Stats

6 Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt .354/.419/.538, 5 2B, 1 HR, 7 SB

16 Richie Martin SS Florida .283/.429/.415, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 SB

17 Alex Bregman SS Louisiana State .338/.397/.554, 6 2B, 2 HR, 12 SB

20 Ian Happ OF Cincinnati .511/.623/.936, 5 2B, 5 HR, 3 SB

25 Christin Stewart OF Tennessee .316/.460/.605, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR

26 D.J. Stewart OF Florida State .292/.528/.667, 3 2B, 5 HR, 2 SB

34 Chris Shaw OF Boston College .244/.375/.533, 1 2B, 4 HR, 19 RBI

40 Gio Brusa OF Pacific .217/.368/.435, 4 2B, 2 HR

44 Steven Duggar OF Clemson .255/.344/.294, 2 2B, 9 BB, 2 SB

47th-ranked prospect, Joe McCarthy, out with back injury

 

Pitchers

 

Rk. Player Pos. School Stats

3 Michael Matuella RHP Duke 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 10 IP, 9:4

4 Kyle Funkhouser RHP Louisville 1-2, 3.38 ERA, 24 IP, 28:10

5 Walker Buehler RHP Vanderbilt 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 7:3

8 Carson Fulmer RHP Vanderbilt 3-0, 0.81 ERA, 22.1 IP, 33:13

11 Cody Ponce RHP Cal Poly Pomona 1-0, 1.08 ERA, 8.1 IP, 11:2

14 Nathan Kirby LHP Virginia 3-1, 0.71 ERA, 25.1 IP, 37:10

18 Kyle Cody RHP Kentucky 2-1, 3.43 ERA, 21 IP, 26:3

19 Jake Lemoine RHP Houston 1-1, 3.63 ERA, 22.1 IP, 14:3

21 Riley Ferrell RHP Texas Christian 0-0, 1.17 ERA, 5 SV, 7.2 IP, 11:5

27 James Kaprelian RHP UCLA 3-1, 3.33 ERA, 24.1 IP, 29:3

29 Dillon Tate RHP UC Santa Barbara 3-1, 0.96 ERA, 28 IP, 35:11

31 Alex Young LHP Texas Christian 3-0, 1.29 ERA, 21 IP, 21:3

36 Brett Lilek LHP Arizona State 1-1, 4.91 ERA, 18.1 IP, 19:11

38 Tyler Ferguson RHP Vanderbilt 0-0, 24.30 ERA, 3.1 IP, 3:14

43 Marc Brakeman RHP Stanford 0-1, 3.71 ERA, 17 IP, 13:7

30th-ranked prospect, Jon Duplantier, out with arm soreness

 

Link to full article also has a good write up on fulmer and Swanson.

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=10962

[diehardtwinsfan]

Is Ian Happ's competition just that much worse or is this a small sample size issue? He keeps hitting like that, and I'd say draft him instead of letting the Cubs take him.

[Lonestar]

I found this on Ian Happ from Kiley McDaniels dated 29-Jan.  I don't know if this has been shared here yet.  Definitely someone I want to keep an eye on.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-video-breakdown-ian-happ/

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, just looking at the Cubs with Bryant and Schwarber, I can honestly say that if we are in a situation like last year and just miss out on the big prospects (i.e. Aiken in particular as I'm not terribly interested in the college arms presently), I'm wondering if a guy like Happ with a major league bat would make more sense.

[cmb0252]

yeah, just looking at the Cubs with Bryant and Schwarber, I can honestly say that if we are in a situation like last year and just miss out on the big prospects (i.e. Aiken in particular as I'm not terribly interested in the college arms presently), I'm wondering if a guy like Happ with a major league bat would make more sense.

If the Twins took Happ at #6 I think it would be exactly like the Schwarber signing last year. Grab a sure college bat under slot and spread the money around. One thing to note is the Twins don't have their second round pick. Obviously this hasn't been the Twins style the last 3 years but you never know.

 

Happ interested me before the season and I'm definitely more interested now. He won't keep this pace up but he is definitely proving he is the best college bat. I haven't seen any comparisons to him but im wondering if he will end up being a Zobrist type player. Seem to have similar skill sets.

[gunnarthor]

It's way early but I have to admit I'm not really thrilled with Happ.  Some of the scouting reports see him as a tweener and I don't think Cincinnati plays in the toughest baseball conference, although I could be wrong. But that they still don't know where he'll play in the majors is a bit of a concern.  I'm still really hoping someone like Aiken, Tate or Kyle is there at 6.  Maybe Allard, too.  And I'm really going to be interested in how Cameron plays this season.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It's way early but I have to admit I'm not really thrilled with Happ.  Some of the scouting reports see him as a tweener and I don't think Cincinnati plays in the toughest baseball conference, although I could be wrong. But that they still don't know where he'll play in the majors is a bit of a concern.  I'm still really hoping someone like Aiken, Tate or Kyle is there at 6.  Maybe Allard, too.  And I'm really going to be interested in how Cameron plays this season.

Which Kyle? Funkhouser has been pretty mediocre so far, and even before that, a lot of people thought he was bound for relief.