Article: Who Should Be In Line For Fifth Starter Spot?

[tobi0040]

If another pitcher, even Mr. Pelfrey, is determined by the pitching coach and manager to be more likely to be effective in April than May/Meyer, then that's the guy you use.

 

 

I get the logic and your overall point, but if our coaches reach this conclusion, lets just devote this site to the 2015 and 2016 MLB drafts.

[jimmer]

I get the logic and your overall point, but if our coaches reach this conclusion, lets just devote this site to the 2015 and 2016 MLB drafts.

That kind of logic/point basically means that whatever the Twins decided is best then we should agree with that. Doesn't leave much room for discussion in places like this even though that's the way it will end up, because they are the deciders. That doesn't actually mean it's the right move and agreeing it's the right move just because they say it is, is a big appeal to authority.

 

IMO, it was a bad idea to sign him the first time and it was an even worse idea to sign him for even more money and more years a second time. Just because they decided it was the right move both times, doesn't mean it was.

Edited January 21, 2015 by jimmer

[laloesch]

I think a 6 man rotation 3-4 times through in April makes sense (Meyer and May). Then bump one guy or one will be hurt anyway.  Not a bad solution. 

 

I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet but, dare I say it, the Twins do something unconventional *gasp* and roll with a 6-man rotation?

 

Completely agree with Nick that May needs to be in the rotation to start the year, especially given the stats Seth mentioned earlier about his turnaround.

 

But I also think Milone really deserves a spot. Not only for the Twins to decide on him, but to also showcase what he is in case they want to move him (the fact that he was hurt at the end of last year didn't give anyone much of an opportunity to look at him objectively). We all agree his stuff isn't overpowering but if Pavanostache proved anything to Twins fans, it's that you can be successful with a 88-89 fastball.

 

I don't think Meyer is ready to start yet for the reasons mentioned above. Too many walks, not enough innings, etc. Better in the Long Relief role.

 

Rolling with a 6-man rotation would mean they don't sacrificing meaningful innings for May, see what Milone actually is and still give Meyer a shot up here in the Pen.

 

Adding my two cents to this discussion.

 

The way I see It there's no question you roll with Trevor May as the fifth starter, unless he has a terrible spring training.  I see him on the same timeline / development tract as Gibson.  Like Gibson, May's first couple of MLB starts were horrendous but the final  6 / 7 games were much much better.    

 

Interestingly, May can rack up the strikeouts as he features 4 strong pitches, including a fairly robust fastball that sits at 93-95 mph and several breaking ball offerings.  He's not afraid to mix it up either which might explain the high number of strikeouts.  This fact alone should give him a leg up on Meyer who despite having fantastic pure power has yet to polish off his breaking ball pitches.

 

That said, I will be seriously ticked off if the Twins go with Pelfrey out of spring training or Milone just because he's a lefty.  The scenario with Pelfrey is totally absurd considering how poorly he pitched in 2013 and the lack of starts last season due to injury.  He's a sunk cost and has no future with this club.   I don't get why Terry Ryan insists on hanging on to him.

 

Milone on the other hand, I kinda get given his track record in Oakland.  But here's something to keep in mind.  Much of his success has hinged on being a lefty starter (a somewhat rare commodity in MLB) and pitching in that cavernous ballpark in Oakland. I think he's decent but not the kind of player you hold up developing top prospects for

 

If all goes accordingly, I'd keep Milone around as a lefty long reliever / spot starter and find a new home for Nolasco by the all-star break.  He has said publicly that he wishes he hadn't come to Minnesota.  Getting Meyer into the rotation by the all-star break would be acceptable.

[TheLeviathan]

Peacefully?

 

Yeah, we don't have to tar and feather Terry Ryan and the other decision makers.  Just, you know, make them eat Lutefisk until they agree to reverse their decision.  

[jimmer]

Yeah, we don't have to tar and feather Terry Ryan and the other decision makers.  Just, you know, make them eat Lutefisk until they agree to reverse their decision.  

and some of us aren't from Minnesota, nor live in Minnesota, so we aren't bound to the 'peacefully' part either :-)

Edited January 21, 2015 by jimmer

[ScrapTheNickname]

I would like to see Meyer show up as our savior this year, but his WHIP at AAA last year was 1.4. Surely, even though he's 25, he needs another year trying to figure out the walk problem, which seems only to have gotten somewhat worse.

 

On the other hand, if Meyer were as good as Nolan Ryan (career walk rate of 4.7!) we could live with it. (I just saw that Nolan Ryan never won a Cy Young award, though he lead the league in strike outs 12 times. I did not know that.)

[Dr. Evil]

What "laloesch" said......

 

"I think he's decent but not the type of player you hold up a developing top prospect for."

 

I agree with this completely.

[jimmer]

 

 

On the other hand, if Meyer were as good as Nolan Ryan (career walk rate of 4.7!) we could live with it. (I just saw that Nolan Ryan never won a Cy Young award, though he lead the league in strike outs 12 times. I did not know that.)

In fairness, Nolan never actually deserved to win the CY. Even the year he finished 2nd to Palmer, Bert should have won.

Edited January 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Steven Buhr]

That kind of logic/point basically means that whatever the Twins decided is best then we should agree with that. Doesn't leave much room for discussion in places like this even though that's the way it will end up, because they are the deciders. That doesn't actually mean it's the right move and agreeing it's the right move just because they say it is, is a big appeal to authority.

 

IMO, it was a bad idea to sign him the first time and it was an even worse idea to sign him for even more money and more years a second time. Just because they decided it was the right move both times, doesn't mean it was.

I don't think I advocated anything resembling simply accepting whatever the coaches decide and not questioning it.

 

The point is that what coaches see in March does matter when putting together your roster. The point is that advocating you toss out anything that happens in March and base the decision on some small sample size of what you saw from May or Meyer in September seems inconsistent with contending that there be "no scholarships."

 

Nothing wrong with advocating that May/Meyer get a rotation spot if you feel they've earned it over everyone else, but I can't go along with a suggestion that they have already done so. They simply have not, imo.

[bird]

I still feel that if Nolasco looks good in spring training some decent club desperate for pitching will trade something of value for him.  TR stated last fall that Pohlad was willing to sign off on the end of scholarships.(Nolasco was specifically stated that his position was not guaranteed). Nolasco does not want to be here, so move him if you can get value.

 

Good point about Nolasco being on notice that he'll be expected to pitch his way into the rotation. Gibson said he fully expects he'll need to compete for a spot. Let's not discount Ryan's stated concerns about Nolasco's state of mind about being a Twin. It would not shock me at all if we broke camp without Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone on the roster. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

In fairness, Nolan never actually deserved to win the CY. Even the year he finished 2nd to Palmer, Bert should have won.

I think you're right.

[Dantes929]

May should be the frontrunner because out of the whole pack he had the best 2014 and I am not talking about the September call up at all.   I am talking about the whole year..    That does not mean he should be given the job but the stats are not that important since Spring Training is a lot about training.    If he has a 6 ERA but the coaches like what they see in terms of command and stuff that is ok with me if he goes North or if he has a 4 ERA and Meyer has a 3.5 ERA the edge should still go to May because the regular season should be weighted that heavily and ST should have some weight but not as much.    Live action for the first time in 5 months,, variable quality of opponents, working on weak pitches or command of the fastball  make a small sample size count even less than normal. 

Also, I think Pelfrey should be last on the depth charts going into spring training but should not be written off.  He has had long stretches of success and actually has good stuff.    Baseball is great for giving 2nd chances for people to succeed.    I hope he never gets the chance because everyone ahead of him thrives but if it does get to him he probably wouldn't be the worst #5 in baseball.

[ashbury]

and some of us aren't from Minnesota, nor live in Minnesota, so we aren't bound to the 'peacefully' part either :-)

Tip over and set fire to all the police cars and buses you want, in real life, but keep the rioting peaceful on TD.

[jokin]

 

Also, I think Pelfrey should be last on the depth charts going into spring training but should not be written off.  He has had long stretches of success and actually has good stuff.    Baseball is great for giving 2nd chances for people to succeed.    I hope he never gets the chance because everyone ahead of him thrives but if it does get to him he probably wouldn't be the worst #5 in baseball.

 

Agreed. although I really hope the Twins are envisioning Pelfrey to consider making a serious attempt at a set-up role.  Drop the pretense that he can still be a starter.

[Craig Arko]

Tip over and set fire to all the police cars and buses you want, in real life, but keep the rioting peaceful on TD.

http://codes.lp.findlaw.com/uscode/18/I/102/2101

 

Ought to be contenders in five years.

Edited January 22, 2015 by CRArko

[joemama]

If their Spring Training results are all decent, I'll be most content ("excited" is just too strong at this point) to see May and Milone both in the rotation, with Meyer at AAA, Nolasco in long relief, and Pelfrey who knows where...probably the last arm in the bullpen or "on a rehab assignment" at AA/AAA trying to figure out how to pitch again.

 

May has proven he's ready.  Milone has had too much success, despite it being with Oakland, and offers the 'change of pace' lefty.  Pitching him 5th between #4 May and #1 Hughes could be quite effective.  Meyer still has issues to work out, but could prove by May 1 that he's ready.  If Nolasco and/or Meyer is pitching great, SOMEBODY will be struggling enough or be hurt to give them their shot.  Pelfrey?....it's gonna take him pitching well and a slew of injuries.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Before we riot, and I don't want to speak for everyone, but us guys in the back wanted to know if we could have some beer....and then riot? Maybe some wings too, but then we riot. Wait, we're out of pretzels?

Only exception is cheap beer, cheap hotdogs, and a Chuck Knoblauch return.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nolasco may be on notice, but he's going to get all season to prove it. The reality is that Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes will all be in the rotation, and I'd be hard pressed to see Gibson not in it too given that he pitched well last season in what was his first full season.

 

The real problem is that we will have the same issue (minus Pelfrey and possibly Milone) next season. I suspect Ryan will likely be trading someone at the deadline or this offseason, especially with Meyer and Berrios likely making a case to head north.

[IndianaTwin]

I'm going to stick my head out of my lunch booth for a couple minutes, make a comment, and then duck back in before stuff starts flying at me.

 

Stats from 2010-13

                        IP      ERA+   H/9     HR/9  BB/9     WAR   SO/W

Pitcher A:      588.0     91      9.4     1.4     2.6       3.1       2.77

Pitcher B:      570.0     88    10.1     0.7     3.0       3.8       1.75

 

I am fired up about the season Pitcher A gave us last year and looking forward to him getting that extra third of an inning he needs for a bonus.

 

But I'm not ready to give up on Pitcher Bike Belfrey. Short leash? Sure. Top candidate for No. 5 spot? Probably not. Better suited for a relief role? Perhaps.

 

But he was once seen in the same breath as Hughes and was seen as having just as high a ceiling. New manager, new pitching coach whose known to do well with reclamation projects.

 

Don't riot yet. Give peace (and maybe even this guy) a chance.

 

(Ducking back for cover.)

[Linus]

I'm going to stick my head out of my lunch booth for a couple minutes, make a comment, and then duck back in before stuff starts flying at me.

 

Stats from 2010-13

                        IP      ERA+   H/9     HR/9  BB/9     WAR   SO/W

Pitcher A:      588.0     91      9.4     1.4     2.6       3.1       2.77

Pitcher B:      570.0     88    10.1     0.7     3.0       3.8       1.75

 

I am fired up about the season Pitcher A gave us last year and looking forward to him getting that extra third of an inning he needs for a bonus.

 

But I'm not ready to give up on Pitcher Bike Belfrey. Short leash? Sure. Top candidate for No. 5 spot? Probably not. Better suited for a relief role? Perhaps.

 

But he was once seen in the same breath as Hughes and was seen as having just as high a ceiling. New manager, new pitching coach whose known to do well with reclamation projects.

 

Don't riot yet. Give peace (and maybe even this guy) a chance.

 

(Ducking back for cover.)

While I don't want Pelfrey to be the 5th starter (mainly because he has one year left on his contract and won't be resigned) I think the whole purpose behind having a bunch of guys to choose from is so one of them steps up takes the job, and you don't have Cole DeVries taking starts when somebody gets hurt.  The idea that we should pre-ordain who that starter should be somewhat defeats the purpose behind having a bunch of guys to choose from.

[dxpavelka]

dxpavelka, I mostly agree with you except about the part about March.   Every year there are guys that are horrible in March that tighten things up for the regular season.   Every year there are also guys that look like Ted Williams in March that can't hit there weight in May.     2014 performance should have the most weight.   May might be working on his fastball command to the exclusion of everything else and have an inflated ERA as a result of giving up hits and home runs.    Of course if he is working on his fastball command but still walking a to of guys then you reconsider.     May should be the frontrunner and if by late March he is throwing hard with a sharp curveball and good control he should be the guy.  As you pointed out, some one will falter giving other guys chances.   If no one does falter then that is good in and of itself..  

If we're giving 2014 performance the most weight then the pendulum probably swings in the direction of Milone.

[ashbury]

http://codes.lp.findlaw.com/uscode/18/I/102/2101

 

Ought to be contenders in five years.

Je suis Charlie.

[tobi0040]

I'm going to stick my head out of my lunch booth for a couple minutes, make a comment, and then duck back in before stuff starts flying at me.

 

Stats from 2010-13

                        IP      ERA+   H/9     HR/9  BB/9     WAR   SO/W

Pitcher A:      588.0     91      9.4     1.4     2.6       3.1       2.77

Pitcher B:      570.0     88    10.1     0.7     3.0       3.8       1.75

 

I am fired up about the season Pitcher A gave us last year and looking forward to him getting that extra third of an inning he needs for a bonus.

 

But I'm not ready to give up on Pitcher Bike Belfrey. Short leash? Sure. Top candidate for No. 5 spot? Probably not. Better suited for a relief role? Perhaps.

 

But he was once seen in the same breath as Hughes and was seen as having just as high a ceiling. New manager, new pitching coach whose known to do well with reclamation projects.

 

Don't riot yet. Give peace (and maybe even this guy) a chance.

 

(Ducking back for cover.)

 

If you back out numbers in Yankee stadium, Hughes has a career sub 4 ERA.  The HR rate is about .7.  The BB rate is just over 2, and the K rate is 7.5.  Even the range you selected, if viewed right shows Hughes and Bike Belfrey on different levels.

[IndianaTwin]

While I don't want Pelfrey to be the 5th starter (mainly because he has one year left on his contract and won't be resigned) I think the whole purpose behind having a bunch of guys to choose from is so one of them steps up takes the job, and you don't have Cole DeVries taking starts when somebody gets hurt.  The idea that we should pre-ordain who that starter should be somewhat defeats the purpose behind having a bunch of guys to choose from.

To be clear, I'm NOT saying that Pelfrey ought to be handed the No. 5 job, or even have first dibs at it -- I'm just saying that if you're choosing from among several guys who have demonstrated at least some level of potential in the past, what's the harm in one more still being in the picture during spring training?

 

Yes, I understand the "but you're taking away opportunities from others," but I'm not convinced. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the average AL team had about a fourh of its starts last year come from people who were not in the opening day rotation. Cream will rise, and if May and Meyer are as good as advertised, they will pitch their way to the top.

 

The average AL team had 9-10 different guys start last year -- some had as many as 13, I think it was. Someone outside of the Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Santana, May, Meyer, and Millone WILL likely be needed this year, and I'm not averse to Pelfrey still being considered for one of those spots. True, there was a point when we had to acknowledge that Willie Banks wasn't Cy Young, but I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is there yet.

 

Put another way, if we harped on Gardy and Anderson, I'd rather let Molitor and Allen make the final decision on whether any past potential is indeed gone.  

[IndianaTwin]

If you back out numbers in Yankee stadium, Hughes has a career sub 4 ERA.  The HR rate is about .7.  The BB rate is just over 2, and the K rate is 7.5.  Even the range you selected, if viewed right shows Hughes and Bike Belfrey on different levels.

Thanks for the reminder on the Yankee Stadium effect, though wouldn't at least ERA+ have adjusted for that?

 

My underlying point is that a year ago, there was a fair amount of skepticism on this site about the possibilities for Hughes. People do respond differently to injuries, however, and I still wonder if there is learning to be had on how much of Pelfrey's injuries of the past two years were below the neck and how much was above.

[h2oface]

.......Nothing wrong with advocating that May/Meyer get a rotation spot if you feel they've earned it over everyone else, but I can't go along with a suggestion that they have already done so. They simply have not, imo.

I don't think one has to necessarily "earn" it. Not is this day and age. Nolasco hasn't earned it. Pelfrey hasn't earned it. Both got the job regardless, and they even showed that they earned the bench or released. For that matter, Santana hasn't earned it and Hughes hadn't when he got his job. Apples and oranges, and not the same thing, I know.  When a best prospect is ready by age and experience, it is time, especially when you are coming off four 92 plus loss seasons. Meyer could earn it in The Show the first month of April and never look back....... but not if you don't let him have the opportunity. Seeing him pitch..... to me, he has earned it and should have been up last year. He might have even walked less batters than May!

[Nick Nelson]

I guess I'm having trouble understanding how people can be against "scholarships," but at the same time wanting to hand May or Meyer a rotation spot in April, regardless of whether they impress anyone in March. Sounds like we're only against scholarships for pitchers who the team did not trade a CF for a couple years ago.

 

Is anyone saying that? The question is who should be in line for the fifth starter spot. As noted in the article, if May is a mess in spring training then you make adjustments (same goes for Nolasco, and anyone, really), but based on everything at play he looks like the best option going in.

 

It's not a scholarship, it's an evaluation based on the evidence at hand. Obviously more evidence comes into play during the month of March, I just don't think what happens in Ft. Myers should be the overriding factor in the decision.

 

Their plan should be to have May in the rotation. Plans can change.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm confused by how people are supposed to earn or lose their spot.  Are people seriously suggesting we take ST results seriously?

 

The point is that May should be first in line barring injury or opposing teams batting 1.000 off of him.

[bird]

I'm confused by how people are supposed to earn or lose their spot.  Are people seriously suggesting we take ST results seriously?

 

The point is that May should be first in line barring injury or opposing teams batting 1.000 off of him.

I agree about May and think the Twins should be strongly skewing the benefit of the doubt in favor of both Meyer and May over Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone. But I'd suggest that MOST of what gets evaluated regarding a player's performance during spring training happens outside of games and therefore outside of the fans' purview. It would be unwise to base decisions solely on game results, and it's a bit myopic of fans to argue for one player over the other based on the same, but we see that happen all the time.

 

I won't get terribly worked up, I guess, with whatever call they make.

 

Except Pelfrey. I'm tipping over Volkswagens on University by the Armory if they go with Pelfrey.

[ashbury]

I'm tipping over Volkswagens on University by the Armory if they go with Pelfrey.