Article: Who Should Be In Line For Fifth Starter Spot?

[Squirrel]

I think we're obligated to riot if that happens.

As long as it's respectful, have at it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I also didn't see how Gibson would start the season in the rotation last year and that happened.

Gibson's competition was much weaker by March 2014 than May's will be this spring.

 

Pelfrey and Milone if both healthy, Stauffer, the wildcard of Alex Meyer -- that's a lot tougher to beat than the March 2013 versions of Worley and Diamond (both demoted to AAA the previous summer) and Deduno (recent arm surgery, minor league deal previous year, had been removed from the 40-man just over a year prior).

 

I think we all were WAY too pessimistic about Gibson's chances.

[jimmer]

'Gibson's competition was much weaker by March 2014 than May's will be this spring.

 

Pelfrey and Milone if both healthy, Stauffer, the wildcard of Alex Meyer -- that's a lot tougher to beat than the March 2013 versions of Worley and Diamond (both demoted to AAA the previous summer) and Deduno (recent arm surgery, minor league deal previous year, had been removed from the 40-man just over a year prior).'

 

If the 25 year old former first rounder, and high prospect Alex Meyer (who we traded Span for) can't compete and beat the likes of those guys, we have big issues.

Edited January 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

If it were my choice, I would have both May and Meyer in the rotation to start the season and Nilasco and Milone in AAA as support in case of injury.  

 

My reasoning is two fold.

 

1. I predict that at best, Milone and Nilasco will be below average major league starters this year. Certainly no where near sniffing a rotation spot on any contending team. By giving them spots out of spring training you would be, to some extent, resigning to a predictable result for the season. That's boring.

 

2. The Twins fan base is starving for something to get excited about. Albeit not probable, it is possible that both May and Meyer both latch on to the opportunity and run with it. That would make for the possibility of an exciting rotation and a team exceeding expectations.

 

I can't speak for all fans. But for me it would be much more exciting to watch May and Meyer in 2015 than it would be to watch Nolasco and Milone muddling to a predictable result while attempting to reclaim their careers.

 

Right or wrong in my opinion,  I just feel like it's pretty obvious that Nalasco and Milone will have predictably poor results and I wish the Twins would predict the same and roll their dice with May and Meyer.

[Dantes929]

I know that when I did my first Roster Projection earlier in January, I put Tommy Milone in the rotation and had Meyer and May back in Rochester. I believe that is the most likely scenario. To be fair, Milone has proven a lot more than May... and yet, I would definitely say that if it was my choice, it would be May. Like you wrote, he has nothing more to prove in AAA.

 

 

Actually, to be fair, the arguement can be made that Milone has proven more than any other starter in the rotation.    His AL ERA over a fair sample (83 starts) should probably give him the nod over everyone.   It was very unfair for the A's to demote him and it is only his performance (small sample) after demotion that makes me want May over Milone.

[jimmer]

Actually, to be fair, the arguement can be made that Milone has proven more than any other starter in the rotation.    His AL ERA over a fair sample (83 starts) should probably give him the nod over everyone.   It was very unfair for the A's to demote him and it is only his performance (small sample) after demotion that makes me want May over Milone.

They demoted him because they had better pitchers and they likely were only able to trade him to a team desperate for pitching (and for little return) because they, and many, knew how dependent he was on their defense and that park of their. If he was better, they likely could have gotten more for him.

[Dantes929]

I think it'd be best for everyone involved to tell the pitchers who is in the rotation and who is not before ST starts and stop trying to sell the pitchers and the fans the idea of there being a position battle.

Last decade there was always talk about position battles in ST but my guess is that the Twins could have written out the roster for Opening Day on the first day of ST.    Roster seems a little more fluid now but really, 2014 performance should be the deciding factor on who makes the team in 2015.   Simply using that formula says May should get his shot before Meyer.    Of course that also says Nolasco should probably  not make the team and would put Mauer's position in jeopardy as well so there probably should be some career bias as well. 

[beckmt]

I still feel that if Nolasco looks good in spring training some decent club desperate for pitching will trade something of value for him.  TR stated last fall that Pohlad was willing to sign off on the end of scholarships.(Nolasco was specifically stated that his position was not guaranteed). Nolasco does not want to be here, so move him if you can get value.

[strumdatjaguar]

I'm in favor of competition in Spring Training for all spots except Santana and Hughes.   None of the others have earned a guaranteed spot.   The mere fact that Ricky No-Fastball has a big contract should not guarantee him a place in the rotation - he should earn it.   If Kyle Gibson looks lousy in Spring Training, there is no reason he should get preference over Trevor May,Tommy Millone, Mike Pelfrey (yes, Mike Pelfrey), Alex Meyer, et. al.  (if one of them looks good enough clearly to earn the job).   The Twins should make the starters earn their positions in this year's Spring Training,.  This is a team which should have fewer players automatically slotted into a position. The Twins need players who are "less comfortable" with making less of an effort or having less success.  A new meritocracy can light a fire and help to promote excellence in this organization.   Of course if it's a close call between good performances from both Tommy Millone and Ricky Nolasco, Ricky's contract does mean something and he should win out in that hypothetical situation.  However, bad or mediocre performances in Spring Training should not win out over good performances for any of the 25 positions.   Let's get RUTHLESS with the ROSTER!!!!!

Edited January 21, 2015 by strumdatjaguar

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I know I am in the minority here--but I put Meyer in the rotation. I like the idea mentioned above of putting both Meyer and May in the rotation and putting Nolasco in the pen.

 

I feel our 2016 rotation will be Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May and Berrios and the sooner we get there, the better we will be. Trading Nolasco and/or Santana for whatever we can get is not a bad idea.

[nater79a]

I echo the comments of most on here. May is the guy for me in the 5th slot. I'm trying to remember if May had a worse outing than in his prior appearance through last August/September. There may have have been one. Point is, he was continually improving.

 

I expect one or two DFA's and/or deals toward the end of spring training to "thin the herd" as they say.

[Dantes929]

They demoted him because they had better pitchers and they likely were only able to trade him to a team desperate for pitching (and for little return) because they, and many, knew how dependent he was on their defense and that park of their. If he was better, they likely could have gotten more for him.

I still say his AL ERA of below 4 in the AL should trump Nolasco's 4.5 NL ERA.    Even with a slow start he was 6-3 with a 3.55 ERA with the A's.    That can't be all due to defense and ballpark.   A's were loaded and decided to go get Jeff Samardzija.    I don't know why Milone did so poorly once demoted but that likely decreased his trade value.     Was Milone hurt or simply upset by the demotion?    Maybe he isn't that good and been aided by park and defense but his career AL ERA is still better than Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and Santana so putting him 7th in the depth department seems a tad unfair.   I am not one of those that care whether he throws 99 or 89.   

[Rosterman]

It's a bonafide competition and I just hope the Twins bring the best candidate north and forget about salary owed, options or the like.

 

Until the rash of recent relief pitching signings, always thought that at the least May could start in the bullpen, be the Swarzak player. May might ultimately be bettter suited for the bullpen.

 

Nonetheless, the Twins have candidates for the firth, as well as a full rotation thatshould shine at AAA Rochester.

[JB_Iowa]

Neil Allen hasn't seen much af these guys yet.  I'd like him to get a feel for them before decisions are made.  I'd also like to get a feel for his (and Molitor's) decision-making.  (Yes, I know that it will depend on the F,O,)

[tobi0040]

We already have a weak rotation as it is. Going to a 6 man rotation would mean less starts for the pitchers who actually deserve to be in a major league rotation right now.  Why would we want to, on purpose, take away starts from Hughes and Santana and give them to lesser pitchers? That's like having your best OBP guy batting 9th instead of in the top 3 spots

 

I think a 6 man rotation 3-4 times through in April makes sense (Meyer and May). Then bump one guy or one will be hurt anyway.  Not a bad solution. 

Edited January 21, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

I think a 6 man rotation 3-4 times through in April makes sense (Meyer and May). Then bump one guy or one will be hurt anyway.  Not a bad solution. 

That wasn't the scenario presented that I responded to and I'm not sure I'd do that either, but it's better than rolling out a 6 man rotation all year.

[JB_Iowa]

There are only 3 open dates in the regular season in April so a 6 man might be feasible.  But except for a series in Seattle, all of the games are in the division.

 

Likely to be some snow, rain and cancellations.

 

Plus, I want Hughes and Santana pitching on familiar days of rest. 

[spohner02]

Can we all agree to peacefully riot if it's Pelfrey?

Peacefully?

[nater79a]

I don't mind Meyer starting in the bullpen. However, I don't really want him throwing an inning here and an inning there. He needs to be stretched out so he can slip into the rotation when needed.  If he can't get that with the big club I'd rather see him in the Rochester rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Peacefully?

Well, we are Minnesotans.

 

The way I picture a Minnesota riot is hordes of middle-aged white people aggressively serving one another hotdish. Some may go as far as saying "thank you but I'm not hungry" as few as two times.

 

It'll be utter chaos.

[dxpavelka]

I'm totally fine with May, Meyer, Milone or even Pelfrey WINNING the job in camp.  You've already pretty much committed to 4 spots going to guys who don't have to win them.  Nothing wrong with making at least one guy take the route that got Gibson the job last year.  Do you REALLY think that a guy who can't get the job done in March is magically going to get it done over the course of the following six months?  There's also no guarantee that the first four will emerge from camp unscathed and totally healthy.  If I didn't know what team I was reading about when I read all these comments I'd think we were discussing the 1971 Orioles.  We had the worst rotation in the league last year.  Pretty sure we are not quite yet at the point where we now have an embarrasment of riches at the position but it is nice to have viable options.  All that being said, I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I expect that Milone breaks camp as the # 5.  I'm far less concerned about the makeup of the rotation in April than I am in the makeup of the rotation from May to September.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think a 6 man rotation 3-4 times through in April makes sense (Meyer and May). Then bump one guy or one will be hurt anyway.  Not a bad solution. 

Does a 6 man rotation guarantee a 13 man staff, though?

[Dantes929]

dxpavelka, I mostly agree with you except about the part about March.   Every year there are guys that are horrible in March that tighten things up for the regular season.   Every year there are also guys that look like Ted Williams in March that can't hit there weight in May.     2014 performance should have the most weight.   May might be working on his fastball command to the exclusion of everything else and have an inflated ERA as a result of giving up hits and home runs.    Of course if he is working on his fastball command but still walking a to of guys then you reconsider.     May should be the frontrunner and if by late March he is throwing hard with a sharp curveball and good control he should be the guy.  As you pointed out, some one will falter giving other guys chances.   If no one does falter then that is good in and of itself..  

[tobi0040]

  I'm far less concerned about the makeup of the rotation in April than I am in the makeup of the rotation from May to September.

 

I am generally in agreement.  Except I have experienced Ryan/Gardy led trauma by consistently starting the year with three players starting that we all know are terrible and have no shot to be on the team in June.

 

Livan, Bautista, Castro, Ortiz....ahh make is stop.

Edited January 21, 2015 by tobi0040

[Steven Buhr]

I guess I'm having trouble understanding how people can be against "scholarships," but at the same time wanting to hand May or Meyer a rotation spot in April, regardless of whether they impress anyone in March. Sounds like we're only against scholarships for pitchers who the team did not trade a CF for a couple years ago.

 

i don't think you overly rely upon results in spring training GAMES, but I do think that how well a guy pitches overall (including bullpen sessions) in March should play a part in who opens in the rotation. If another pitcher, even Mr. Pelfrey, is determined by the pitching coach and manager to be more likely to be effective in April than May/Meyer, then that's the guy you use.

 

You don't let his salary determine he's the right guy, but you also don't let his lack of popularity among the masses determine that he's not. April wins and losses count just as much as those in any other month and, while you and I might not be optimistic about the Twins' chances of being competitive in 2015, the team itself should not be punting on Opening Day.

 

The season will be plenty long and there will no doubt be plenty of time to get both May and Meyer their starts with the Twins. I just don't believe they are any more entitled to be handed a rotation spot with the Twins, just because we're tired of waiting for them, than any veteran pitcher should be.

[Thegrin]

We seem to be having a bad case of, "If it didn't happen in Minnesota, it never happened..." with regards to Milone's effectiveness.

Pitchers who used to be known as "crafty lefty's" are now known as "soft-tossing" pitchers.

A left handed starter does several things:

 - They throw off the hitters after seeing mostly right handed pitching.

 - They set up the right handed relievers to be more effective, as the hitters have to adjust again.

 - They set up the next starter, because the hitters must adjust again.

 

For all these reasons, the Twins will probably use Milone as their 5th starter.  After all... Milone is "left-handed and breahing."  

[Dr. Evil]

I agree with SD Buhr in that we should not be punting on opening day. However, my humble opinion is that the team will get better production out of Meyer/May than they will Milone/Nolasco over the entirety of the 2015 season. That is why I want them in the rotation from the beginning. But, that's just my opinion.

 

Yes, I agree that spring training performance and competing for a job is a good thing. However, I feel that there is also a place for predicting future performance. If the kids have a good spring training and they are considered top prospects, they are at the age where you stick them in there and let em chuck the biscuit.  

[Parker Hageman]

I'm going to preface this by saying I want Trevor May to have the fifth spot in 2015. I think he has the tools and track record. 

 

I do agree with Nick's take here...

 

Personally, I'm not a fan of the whole "spring training position battle" concept. Deciding who will fill any roster spot -- particularly a rotation spot -- is weighty, and should not be dictated by performance in a couple of dozen (or fewer) exhibition games, where the competition ranges from established starters getting their work in to minor-league journeymen.

 

 

...but in speaking to evaluators, plenty will say they put the same weight in September performances as they do spring training performances. 

 

The one thing that plagued May throughout his MLB debut was his inability to pitch well from the stretch, which I outlined here: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/trevor-may-and-pitching-from-the-stretch-r3066

 

He never really solved for that: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2014&t=p#bases::none

 

Certainly, I think it is something he can work to improve. Perhaps Neil Allen can help hasten that process. Either way, looking forward to May in 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Either way, looking forward to May in 2015.

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[LimestoneBaggy]

I think we're obligated to riot if that happens.

Before we riot, and I don't want to speak for everyone, but us guys in the back wanted to know if we could have some beer....and then riot? Maybe some wings too, but then we riot. Wait, we're out of pretzels?