Article: Who Should Be In Line For Fifth Starter Spot?

[Nick Nelson]

With the addition of Ervin Santana via free agency, the Twins have essentially sealed up four of five spots in the 2015 rotation. Barring an injury or a dramatic turn of events in spring training, Santana, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kyle Gibson are all going to be there on opening day.

 

That leaves one final opening, with several names in the mix to fill it. Who should be the leading candidate?Personally, I'm not a fan of the whole "spring training position battle" concept. Deciding who will fill any roster spot -- particularly a rotation spot -- is weighty, and should not be dictated by performance in a couple of dozen (or fewer) exhibition games, where the competition ranges from established starters getting their work in to minor-league journeymen.

 

Going into camp, the Twins need to have a good idea of who they want rounding out the rotation. If they currently have a preference among a list that includes Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Alex Meyer, Tim Stauffer and others, they haven't been too forward about it.

 

But for me, there's one clear choice, and that is Trevor May.

 

May has nothing left to prove in the minors. Last year, he was one of the best starters in the Class-AAA International League, posting a 2.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 94-to-39 K/BB ratio while allowing just four home runs in 98 innings.

 

It seems silly to send him back there at age 25 after that kind of performance, especially when you consider how many innings May has already logged in the high minors. Between Double-A and Triple-A, the right-hander has made 73 starts; for comparison, Meyer -- who many believe has spent plenty of time in the minors already -- has made 40 starts between those two levels.

 

One could point to May's unimpressive results during a late-season audition for the Twins, but he pitched better than most people believe.

 

For instance, you might think May's control was a complete and total mess during his time with the Twins. That was sort of true... in his first start. But after that brutal, jittery debut in which he issued seven walks, the righty handed out 15 free passes in 43 2/3 innings (3.1 BB/9) while throwing strikes at a 65 percent rate, which is league-average.

 

During that same span, he also notched 44 strikeouts, burning big-league batters with a 92 MPH fastball and quality secondary stuff. He certainy demonstrated that his stuff plays in the majors.

 

None of that really takes away from the fact that he gave up a ton of hits and a ton of runs, but that's hardly uncharacteristic for a rookie getting his first taste of The Show and learning that some of the pitches he could get away with in the minors aren't going to play. We saw the same thing occur with Gibson, who was crushed in his 2013 call-up before putting together a solid first full season in '14. In many ways, May's debut was more impressive than Gibson's.

 

When you consider the positive signs May showed last year, and his age, and his lengthy minor-league service, and his potential importance to the future of this rotation, it seems clear to me that he should be first in line to get a crack at that fifth rotation spot. Obviously that changes if he gets hurt or is a total mess in spring training, but the Twins simply have much more to gain from giving May a chance to take hold of that job than they do with someone like Pelfrey or Milone -- both short-term and long-term.

 

The only question is whether the club is willing to set aside factors like experience and salary in making that decision.

 

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[Dantes929]

I think May has the stuff to be very good.    He threw enough strikes.   His misses were just too far off.   He would get 0-2 and then throw 2 or 3 that didn't even tempt the batters.   Just my opinion but if he can get more waste pitches inches from the zone rather than feet from the zone he will be much better.    I think the calf injury hurt his momentum a little bit.   He was out for a month and only had a couple rehab starts before being promoted.   I agree that if he is any good at all in ST he should be the man.  I am fine with Meyer out of the pen for a while and Milone as 6th starter. 

[h2oface]

Trade Span for Meyer and then consider soft tossing Milone for a spot when Meyer is ready? May will probably be the one to end up in the pen for his career, anyway.  How about Meyer the 5th starter (who probably has the best stuff on the staff) and let May work from the pen. Milone can be ready when the injury comes or Nolasco totally washes out.  Berrios might even be ready by then. Meyer doesn't need to get any older in AAA. He is my choice. 

[Linus]

Meyer is my choice as well even though May is probably more ready.  I say that because Meyer fulfilling his potential is more important to the Twins over the next 6 years than any other player not named Buxton or Sano (and maybe even more than those guys).  He's the only chance we have of having a dominant front of the line starter which would be a huge step forward for this club.  For that reason, I want to see him get his shot.

 

Having said that, I agree that May doesn't have any more to prove in AAA and should go to the pen.  He can then move into the rotation when Santana's UCL gives way.

 

Pelfrey to the pen or traded.  Milone optioned to AAA for insurance or the pen if they move a pitcher.  He will get a chance to start before the season is over as well.  Everyone will get a chance to show they deserve a spot.  I like the fact that whoever ends up with that spot will earn it, not have it handed to them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm with Nick here. Meyer was walking way too many hitters in AAA, and that number isn't going to go down in the majors. I don't think we want to see a kid coming up walking 5-6 batters/9, and that's what Meyer would likely be doing if he started the season in the majors, not to mention, he's yet to go through a full season either. I think the right choice is to give May the ball for now and see if Meyer can put it together in Rochester. Meyer can be the first guy called up during injury.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm with Nick here. Meyer was walking way too many hitters in AAA, and that number isn't going to go down in the majors. I don't think we want to see a kid coming up walking 5-6 batters/9, and that's what Meyer would likely be doing if he started the season in the majors, not to mention, he's yet to go through a full season either. I think the right choice is to give May the ball for now and see if Meyer can put it together in Rochester. Meyer can be the first guy called up during injury.

This is how I feel as well. May showed enough last season that, barring collapse, he deserves the first look.

 

I'm also in favor of sending Meyer to the bullpen to start the season, provided there's room for him.

[TheLeviathan]

Can we all agree to peacefully riot if it's Pelfrey?

[DocBauer]

May. May based on stuff, potential, ML experience last season, how he finished, and everything else already stated. Despite less total starts, innings, no ML time yet, etc, Meyer is definitely in the mix just behind May entering camp.

 

Milone should be a distant 3rd option, at least initially. I'm not bagging on him at all. He deserves a shot. But a soft tossing lefty who will almost certainly never rise beyond #4-5 SP status vs a couple top prospects with real stuff and the ability to rise a good deal higher on a team still in at least one level of rebuild is kind of a no-brainier isn't it? Now who goes down to AAA to stay stretched out and who might go to the pen is a different matter.

 

With all due respect to his character and attitude, I'd just as soon pay Pelfrey to leave and try his craft elsewhere. Better for him at this point, and better for all the other pitchers on our roster.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

Completely agree Nick. I have nothing further to add.

[brvama]

Spot on Nick! As I've stated previously, May has to be the favorite for #5, with Meyer in AAA as the first call up. I'd send Milone down also as the second sp in line.

[nicksaviking]

May, not even close.  Pelfrey can go to the pen, Milone can sit in Rochester until he's needed for a spot start.  I still like Meyer better, and like the highest upside guys infinately more than high floor guys, but May isn't without upside even if it's not quite as high as Meyer.

Edited January 21, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Otto von Ballpark]

May has nothing left to prove in the minors. Last year, he was one of the best starters in the Class-AAA International League, posting a 2.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 94-to-39 K/BB ratio while allowing just four home runs in 98 innings.

 

It seems silly to send him back there at age 25 after that kind of performance, especially when you consider how many innings May has already logged in the high minors.

I'm generally with you -- May should be the leader to win the job at this point.  But I don't think it would be "silly" if he wound up back in AAA.  He's older and had a lot of AA innings, but they weren't exactly quality innings.  His quality upper minors resume is, as you note, 98 innings long, with some stark and perhaps unsustainable differences from his previous record (just eyeballing, but his BABIP, HR/9, LOB% in that sample were his best in recent memory).

 

He still has a lot to prove, and while I think that proving could be done in MLB right away, he could probably prove a few things with a little more AAA time too if necessary (namely, that those most recent 98 IP are more indicative of his talent going forward than the 300 so-so IP that immediately preceded it).

 

That said, I wouldn't hand Pelfrey the job over him just because of his contract or whatever, but if someone legitimately performs much better than May this spring, I wouldn't be upset if May began the year in AAA.

[Vance_Christianson]

May - #5

Meyer - Long Relief, so he stays somewhat stretched out

Milone - 6th or 7th inning guy  #6 starter till Meyer proves he's ready to be #6

Pelfrey - 6th or 7th inning guy at best, rather see him released for some youth!

 

We all know that 1 of our 5 starters are going to get injured or something throughout this season, so keep Meyer and Milone throwing up in the Majors out of the pen.

 

I also have some faith in Nolasco. After he came back from injury last year, in his last 7 starts his ERA was 2.70.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can we all agree to peacefully riot if it's Pelfrey?

I think we're obligated to riot if that happens.

[Seth Stohs]

I know that when I did my first Roster Projection earlier in January, I put Tommy Milone in the rotation and had Meyer and May back in Rochester. I believe that is the most likely scenario. To be fair, Milone has proven a lot more than May... and yet, I would definitely say that if it was my choice, it would be May. Like you wrote, he has nothing more to prove in AAA.

 

As I'm typing this, I would say that the same is true with Milone. 

 

Meyer could start in the bullpen, or I would have no problem with him getting two months in Rochester where he is told to focus on not walking batters and then get him up too. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. 

[dbminn]

May as 5th starter, Meyer in the bullpen, where he can learn to be aggressive and throw strikes.

[tobi0040]

My order would be May, Meyer, then Milone. 

I think they start Meyer where they think is best, between the pen and the ace at AAA.

 

It can't be Pelfrey, it just can't.

[Seth Stohs]

I just keep going back to May's performance in those first ten starts of his career (and I agree that the calf injury did derail some of the momentum, for sure). 

 

First Three Starts: 9 IP, 13 BB, 3 K

Final Seven Starts: 36.2 IP, 9 BB, 41 K

 

That's an impressive turnaround. Honestly, and I know many will disagree, but Rick Anderson was probably the right person to be there working closely with May through that transition. He was able to show that he can throw strikes and still get strikeouts. 

It also shows a lot about Trevor May that he was able to overcome that debut and pitch much, much better. 

[dbminn]

Seth, I think Phil Hughes had an impact on May's improvement as well. Is that a decent read? (Hughes also thanked Anderson for his help)

[Kwak]

Most years there are teams that experience a significant injury to a starter in Spring training and are on the lookout for a stop-gap/full-season replacement.  That is the best use for Milhone.  Face it it, the Twins have plenty of holes and question marks.  Trading Milhone to address one of them is the best course for the Twins.

[jimmer]

Most years there are teams that experience a significant injury to a starter in Spring training and are on the lookout for a stop-gap/full-season replacement.  That is the best use for Milhone.  Face it it, the Twins have plenty of holes and question marks.  Trading Milhone to address one of them is the best course for the Twins.

I'm not sure we'd get anything for Milone.  The As ballpark and defense REALLY made him look much better than he is. I agree, though, if we could find a sucker to take him, that'd be great.

[Mike Sixel]

Milone seems like a great guy to have in AAA, ready for a spot start, and if May and Meyer fail.

 

I think May should get the first shot. He showed great improvement last year, and he's a legit prospect. Give him a real shot.

[Steve Lein]

It has to be May or Meyer. The Twins made a conscious effort to acquire their type of pitching, but have not seen any fruits of those labors yet (granted, injuries and performance played a part too).

 

In my best scenario, I think you start with May in the rotation, with Meyer as long relief where he can stay somewhat stretched out like Swarzak. Then when a spot-start is needed you give it to him and hope he never lets go of it. May was a better pitcher last year, so he has to be the frontrunner now.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that Meyer has the best stuff in the entire Twins organization. Yes, you would like to see less walks, but the thing about high-strikeout/walk pitchers is they can also get away with a lot more than guys who don't rack up K's and let a whole bunch more balls be put in play (walks are bad, hits are worse).

 

I'm not expecting Clayton Kershaw, but a 2014 Liriano, Kennedy, Odirizzi, or Ross type performance is more than reasonable to me. And that's pretty dang good too.

[jimmer]

I think it'd be best for everyone involved to tell the pitchers who is in the rotation and who is not before ST starts and stop trying to sell the pitchers and the fans the idea of there being a position battle.

Edited January 21, 2015 by jimmer

[HitInAPinch]

No brainer:  May at #5.  Somehow, they need to clear a rotation spot for Meyer.  He's now 25 and it's time to see if he can play with the big boys.  I don't follow the idea of Meyer as a ML long reliever.  To me, that's wasting time in stretching out his arm.  And having a couple guys in the rotation with some pop makes having Milone in the rotation.  Soft tossing, yes.  Successful, yes.

 

Now that I've gutted the rotation, Hughes, Gibson and Santana get to duke it out.

LOL

[jmlease1]

I can live with almost any of the serious options (May, Milone, Meyer, & Pelfrey) except Pelfrey. Sorry, there's no way he gets the job based on anything other than "veteran starter/stupid contract we gave him" and that's a bad play. I doubt Stauffer gets a serious look to start.

 

May is my preference. Not only does he have nothing left to prove in AAA, he's shown enough to suggest he could be a real asset as a starter. The 5th slot should be perfect for him, as it'll let the team protect him a little and give him more space to grow.

 

Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Nolasco, and May could be a very solid rotation, especially if you have guys like Meyer and Milone as the call-up options to hedge against injury. Not that any of the projection systems will like this pitching staff!

 

Hopefully everyone gets the message that if you're injured to report it and not just try and "fight through it" without saying something...and the Twins medical staff gets better at treating injuries too...

[DRizzo]

I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet but, dare I say it, the Twins do something unconventional *gasp* and roll with a 6-man rotation?

 

Completely agree with Nick that May needs to be in the rotation to start the year, especially given the stats Seth mentioned earlier about his turnaround.

 

But I also think Milone really deserves a spot. Not only for the Twins to decide on him, but to also showcase what he is in case they want to move him (the fact that he was hurt at the end of last year didn't give anyone much of an opportunity to look at him objectively). We all agree his stuff isn't overpowering but if Pavanostache proved anything to Twins fans, it's that you can be successful with a 88-89 fastball.

 

I don't think Meyer is ready to start yet for the reasons mentioned above. Too many walks, not enough innings, etc. Better in the Long Relief role.

 

Rolling with a 6-man rotation would mean they don't sacrifice meaningful innings for May, see what Milone actually is and still give Meyer a shot up here in the Pen.

[Linus]

Seems like most people favor May over Meyer, which I understand (even though I would prefer Meyer).

 

One thing I strongly disagree with is having Meyer go to the pen if he is not the 5th starter.  His innings in the pen will be inconsistent and not like the routine of a starting pitcher.  He needs to take the mound every 5th day and throw a hundred pitches - that is the best training for his future.  So, if he is not starting for the Twins, let him start in Rochester and be first man up (assuming he is throwing it over the plate).

[jimmer]

I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet but, dare I say it, the Twins do something unconventional *gasp* and roll with a 6-man rotation?

 

Completely agree with Nick that May needs to be in the rotation to start the year, especially given the stats Seth mentioned earlier about his turnaround.

 

But I also think Milone really deserves a spot. Not only for the Twins to decide on him, but to also showcase what he is in case they want to move him (the fact that he was hurt at the end of last year didn't give anyone much of an opportunity to look at him objectively). We all agree his stuff isn't overpowering but if Pavanostache proved anything to Twins fans, it's that you can be successful with a 88-89 fastball.

 

I don't think Meyer is ready to start yet for the reasons mentioned above. Too many walks, not enough innings, etc. Better in the Long Relief role.

 

Rolling with a 6-man rotation would mean they don't sacrificing meaningful innings for May, see what Milone actually is and still give Meyer a shot up here in the Pen.

We already have a weak rotation as it is. Going to a 6 man rotation would mean less starts for the pitchers who actually deserve to be in a major league rotation right now.  Why would we want to, on purpose, take away starts from Hughes and Santana and give them to lesser pitchers? That's like having your best OBP guy batting 9th instead of in the top 3 spots

Edited January 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Jeremy Nygaard]

As much as I hope it's May, I feel like it's going to be Milone out of ST. I think it's more likely that May ends up in AAA than Milone. I don't mind the idea of May and/or Meyer in the bullpen, but I also like the thought of having them stretched out when someone's needed. 

 

I also didn't see how Gibson would start the season in the rotation last year and that happened.