Article: Ricky Nolasco: Back to the Future

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, when I saw that tweet, it annoyed me, and yet, he doesn't pitch here in the Winter. He'll wear a jacket and it's not like he'll be outside. It's also 50 degrees warmer than it was a year ago at this time. 

 

Ervin Santana embraced it, saying he'd love to pitch in the cold. At the Diamond Awards last night, he acted like he was excited to be here. Nolasco at least year's Diamond Award made it look like he was told he needed to be there.

 

That said, none of that will matter if he pitches better this year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, when I saw that tweet, it annoyed me, and yet, he doesn't pitch here in the Winter. He'll wear a jacket and it's not like he'll be outside. It's also 50 degrees warmer than it was a year ago at this time. 

 

Ervin Santana embraced it, saying he'd love to pitch in the cold. At the Diamond Awards last night, he acted like he was excited to be here. Nolasco at least year's Diamond Award made it look like he was told he needed to be there.

And that's just it. When Ricky showed up to a Wild game in a Dodgers hat, I didn't care... But after 2-3 more minor incidents, it's getting old. He was paid a boatload of money to pitch in Minnesota. If he didn't want to pitch in Minnesota, he shouldn't have signed here.

 

I don't say this about many people/players but honestly, he gives me the perception that he's an ass. If he can't say anything nice about Minnesota - particularly after the $12 million dumpster fire that was 2014 - he needs to just keep his mouth shut.

[JB_Iowa]

Wouldn't you think his agent would clue him in?

 

On the other hand, he has 3 more secure years so why would the agent care?

 

It isn't so much the LA love.  A lot of players have the SoCal love -- Hughes, Plouffe, Milone, Jake Reed - but they all seem to understand who is paying them.

[ashbury]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/03/Poor_Little_Rich_Girl_1936.jpg

[ashbury]

I tuned into the TwinsFest live video feed, just in time to hear a reference to what could be the solution: have Hrbek take Nolasco out ice fishing. That should change Ricky's attitude about the place!

[Willihammer]

I tuned into the TwinsFest live video feed, just in time to hear a reference to what could be the solution: have Hrbek take Nolasco out ice fishing. That should change Ricky's attitude about the place!

Or just straight up ice bucket challenge him while he's in town. That's still a thing right?

 

Polar plunge maybe.

[ashbury]

Or just straight up ice bucket challenge him while he's in town. That's still a thing right?

 

Polar plunge maybe.

That's a thing, is still a thing?

[Willihammer]

That's a thing, is still a thing?

Yep. I'm current on all the new Internet memes and stuff.

[Linus]

It really is a borderline bizarre situation.  I've been following Minnesota sports for most of my 53 years and cannot recall somebody being so clueless from a PR standpoint.  Tommy Herr hated it here but had the good sense to keep his mouth shut about it with the media.

 

The thing that is most amazing is this: it started almost immediately after signing the contract.  I might get it if you were 3 years into a 4 year deal and hated your manager.  But how you do this from practically day one is just inexplicable.

 

One thing about TR, he is loathe to eat the money on a contract due to subpar performance but he definitely values "make up" and tends to get rid of anybody that he views as a clubhouse problem.  That could make this situation very interesting.

[bird]

Or just straight up ice bucket challenge him while he's in town. That's still a thing right?

 

Polar plunge maybe.

Yeah, I did that ice bucket challenge. They took a picture of me and fired it into the internet on that face book thingy.

[bird]

great article!

 

And yes, combining "ball in play pitchers" with terrible defense shows a fundamental misunderstanding of strategy.

Or, maybe they have a really terrific fundamental understanding of strategy but have bigger fish to fry right now. Like making sure all these new, immensely talented players learn how to be team players and accountable professionals.

 

If Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and the like are roaming the outfield in less than a year and they have a top tier OF defense, are you going to conclude that they suddenly gained a fundamental understanding of strategy?

 

Levi believes, I think, that the Twins don't fully appreciate the value of good outfield defense. That's a reasonable point of view.

Edited January 25, 2015 by birdwatcher

[ashbury]

It really is a borderline bizarre situation.  I've been following Minnesota sports for most of my 53 years and cannot recall somebody being so clueless from a PR standpoint. 

My working hypothesis (total speculation of course) is that the Dodgers broke his heart after he got traded to them, by offering him less salary and for fewer years of guaranteed money than the Twins did.  His agent convinced him that he could not pass up the security of a 2 times greater total package.  And so it's a classic case of his head telling him one thing but his heart another.

[GoGonzoJournal]

But some manager (I think it was Molitor not Gardy) said this doesn't really matter.  That after a couple of times through the rotation and given varying schedules, weather problems, etc.. you don't often get 1 v. 1, 2 v. 2, etc.  Of course, playoffs are a different matter.

Could be, but I'd still be more comfortable calling on Nolasco as a #3 than a #1 or #2.

[Shane Wahl]

While I think it is silly to say that any one player is "most key" for a team, I think it is true about Nolasco when it comes to how the pitching shapes up. I fully expect Hughes and Santana to be good-to-very good and Gibson to be above average. Nolasco pulling it together and having even an average season for him would mean a lot.

[South Dakota Tom]

The eyeball test last year didn't suggest to me that a quicker outfield would have contained Ricky Nolasco.  That man's era wouldn't have dropped half a run if he pitched for the Royals post-season defense.

 

I'm not an advanced stat person, but it strikes me that someone who consistently underperforms his peripheral numbers simply means that he pitches less well in crucial situations.  That his hr/walk/strikeout ratios versus his era means that one batter per game that you "really need to get out" he doesn't get out as often as all the other guys he pitches to.  That's what you see when you look at the guy some of the time as well.  He augers in and digs a hole and his numbers reflect that.

 

It's like that relief pitcher we all hate (no names here) who allows in the inherited runner, but keeps his era low because the guy after him keeps his runner(s) from scoring.

 

Yes, I think defense matters - it inspires confidence, and confidence influences pitch selection, and stops a pitcher from trying to be too fine, and allows him to relax.  Most everybody reading this wants him to find that peace and confidence and relaxation (even in the absence of the stout D).

[Otto von Ballpark]

While I think it is silly to say that any one player is "most key" for a team, I think it is true about Nolasco when it comes to how the pitching shapes up. I fully expect Hughes and Santana to be good-to-very good and Gibson to be above average. Nolasco pulling it together and having even an average season for him would mean a lot.

We had one above-average starter last season, and more or less one each season since 2011. If we suddenly have 3 of them in 2015 before even considering Nolasco (or the hyper-competitive 5th spot), we will be all right. Maybe not leading the division, but probably .500.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The eyeball test last year didn't suggest to me that a quicker outfield would have contained Ricky Nolasco.  That man's era wouldn't have dropped half a run if he pitched for the Royals post-season defense.

 

I'm not an advanced stat person, but it strikes me that someone who consistently underperforms his peripheral numbers simply means that he pitches less well in crucial situations.  That his hr/walk/strikeout ratios versus his era means that one batter per game that you "really need to get out" he doesn't get out as often as all the other guys he pitches to.  That's what you see when you look at the guy some of the time as well.  He augers in and digs a hole and his numbers reflect that.

 

It's like that relief pitcher we all hate (no names here) who allows in the inherited runner, but keeps his era low because the guy after him keeps his runner(s) from scoring.

 

Yes, I think defense matters - it inspires confidence, and confidence influences pitch selection, and stops a pitcher from trying to be too fine, and allows him to relax.  Most everybody reading this wants him to find that peace and confidence and relaxation (even in the absence of the stout D).

 

Yup. And I think he only finds that in Miami or LA. That's just how he's wired. nothing personal. If Ryan can clear that salary as soon as possible, all parties will be happier for it (assuming the gaining team in the trade is happy, too).

[jorgenswest]

If he doesn't show he is a league average pitcher, they won't be able to clear salary by trading him for nothing.

[laloesch]

I think he's angling to be traded,

 

Get a clue, Ricky.  Pitch well the 1st half and maybe they'll be able to flip you.

 

I agree 100%.  He thinks he's being clever, but Ricky needs to get a clue.  Bashing the weather in the state you play in and saying you wish you were still in LA?....come-on man.  Stinks like a spoiled brat if you ask me.

 

Hopefully the prospects pitch well in ST and Ricky starts the season on a role.  I want this guy out of Minnesota as soon as Ryan can swing a deal.  Last seasons horrendous performance and his career numbers are just not good enough to put up with this BS. 

 

The Twins have too many good prospects (May, Meyer & soon Berrios) as well as Milone who are itching at making the MLB team.  Gibson should be fine behind Santana and Hughes as the #3 starter.  Fill the rest of the rotation with guys WHO WANT TO BE HERE.

Edited February 19, 2015 by laloesch

[laloesch]

Speaking of order of starters and the assumption that Nolasco will start the third game of the season:  Do not bet on it.  Hughes, Nolasco and Santana (alphabetically) are equally likely to be the opening day starter as it stands now.  And of all 3 Nolasco has been than more often.

 

Huh?  After last seasons horrific numbers?  Are you seriously arguing that Nolasco is on equal footing for opening day starter this season?  Seriously, whatever you are smoking I want some. 

 

There is NO QUESTION that Hughes is the opening day starter.  Santana is #2 based on pure stuff and last seasons record.  And...... If I were a betting man i'd be willing to wager that Gibson is the #3 starter based on the fact that he won twice as many games as Nolasco and had an era almost 2 runs lower.

 

Just my opinion  

[Brock Beauchamp]

There is NO QUESTION that Hughes is the opening day starter. 

You mean the guy who was the Twins' best starter last season and the guy who just signed a massive contract extension to stay in Minnesota? You think that guy is going to be the Opening Day starter?

 

Yeah, me too. Hughes' right arm could be in a cast and there'd still be a 75% chance he gets the Opening Day start in 2015.

[laloesch]

My working hypothesis (total speculation of course) is that the Dodgers broke his heart after he got traded to them, by offering him less salary and for fewer years of guaranteed money than the Twins did.  His agent convinced him that he could not pass up the security of a 2 times greater total package.  And so it's a classic case of his head telling him one thing but his heart another.

 

In all seriousness I wouldn't be surprised.   It just surprising how foolish he is in letting his agent convince him to go to Minnesota for the extra years and money.  Sure money talks, but would you move somewhere you absolutely hate for 1 more guaranteed year and a few extra million bucks?  I mean the Dodgers are now a perennial playoff team and in an area he loves and because they didn't offer him what he wants he decides to leave the franchise for a perennial loser in an area he dislikes?  Stupid is stupid does if you ask me.

 

Hopefully Ryan realizes this sooner or later.  Ship him out as soon as possible.

Edited February 19, 2015 by laloesch

[Otto von Ballpark]

In all seriousness I wouldn't be surprised. It just surprising how foolish he is in letting his agent convince him to go to Minnesota for the extra years and money. Sure money talks, but would you move somewhere you absolutely hate for 1 more guaranteed year and a few extra million bucks? I mean the Dodgers are now a perennial playoff team and in an area he loves and because they didn't offer him what he wants he decides to leave the franchise for an area he hates? Stupid is stupid does if you ask me.

 

Hopefully Ryan realizes this sooner or later. Ship him out as soon as possible.

Not sure if the Dodgers offered him anything, though.

[jimmer]

Nolasco chose to go to Minnesota. Makes no sense to slam the place.  Didn't have to pick here. He likely could have taken a good chunk less to play somewhere else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He likely could have taken a good chunk less to play somewhere else.

There seems to be a growing portion of the Twins fan base that would pay him a good chunk to play somewhere else.

[jorgenswest]

The frustration should be with the Twin management. Through his prime 5 years of 26-30 he had an ERA+ of 90 in around 1000 innings. That is number 4 starter territory. Very few guys keep getting an opportunity to pitch when their adjusted ERA is 10% worse than league average through their primes. You don't give these guys four year contracts.

 

There were some signs that pointed up for him before he signed. He always had a much better FIP. He did well with the Dodgers. There were reports that the improvement came with a change in pitch mix and pitching backwards. A single season FIP is a better predictor for the next season than ERA. 1000 innings of FIP that is far below ERA and teams should wonder what in his skill set causes the discrepancy.

 

Reality hit when he came to Minnesota. The FIP was still a lot better than the ERA but neither was acceptable. With the Twins, he went back to fastball first and he wasn't able to establish his fastball that had always been mediocre through his career. At 32 the likelihood that he will perform close to a league average pitcher is very slim.

 

The only hope I have is that Allen and Guardado will see something in his time with the Dodgers that they can bring back this year. They need to help him find his slider that was dominant in 2013. He needs to find it and use it often. If he can't find that slider, he isn't a major league pitcher. Last year's plan of first establishing the fast ball was never going to work.

[Secondary User]

The eyeball test last year didn't suggest to me that a quicker outfield would have contained Ricky Nolasco.  That man's era wouldn't have dropped half a run if he pitched for the Royals post-season defense.

 

I'm not an advanced stat person, but it strikes me that someone who consistently underperforms his peripheral numbers simply means that he pitches less well in crucial situations.  That his hr/walk/strikeout ratios versus his era means that one batter per game that you "really need to get out" he doesn't get out as often as all the other guys he pitches to.  That's what you see when you look at the guy some of the time as well.  He augers in and digs a hole and his numbers reflect that.

 

It's like that relief pitcher we all hate (no names here) who allows in the inherited runner, but keeps his era low because the guy after him keeps his runner(s) from scoring.

 

Yes, I think defense matters - it inspires confidence, and confidence influences pitch selection, and stops a pitcher from trying to be too fine, and allows him to relax.  Most everybody reading this wants him to find that peace and confidence and relaxation (even in the absence of the stout D).

 

10 days past, you may not even read this, but here goes anyway.

 

"That his hr/walk/strikeout ratios versus his era means that one batter per game that you "really need to get out" he doesn't get out as often as all the other guys he pitches to."

 

But WHY wasn't he getting them out?  Last year definitely seemed to be an anomaly, evidenced even by his FIP being significantly higher than it had been.  I really didn't buy the injury thing at first, until I started looking at his peripherals from the past and then after his September performance.  I think something really was off.

 

Now is he going to post a 3.20 ERA?  No, particularly not in front of Arcia/Hicks/Hunter.  But depending on what call ups happen when and how it all shakes out, there is no doubt in my mind that he can be a 3.70-3.90 ERA that gets a bunch of wins for a competitive team.

[Secondary User]

 

There were some signs that pointed up for him before he signed. He always had a much better FIP. He did well with the Dodgers. There were reports that the improvement came with a change in pitch mix and pitching backwards. A single season FIP is a better predictor for the next season than ERA. 1000 innings of FIP that is far below ERA and teams should wonder what in his skill set causes the discrepancy.

 

 

Again.....nearly every one of those 1000 innings (with the exception of 80 or so with the Dodgers) were in front of very bad defenses, which can absolutely account for ERA lagging behind FIP.

[jorgenswest]

Again.....nearly every one of those 1000 innings (with the exception of 80 or so with the Dodgers) were in front of very bad defenses, which can absolutely account for ERA lagging behind FIP.

You have to at least wonder why the defense was consistently really bad for just Nolasco. While the Marlin team ERAs were always greater than the team FIPs they were much much closer than the Nolasco difference and a good portion of that difference is due to Nolasco's numbers.

[Secondary User]

You have to at least wonder why the defense was consistently really bad for just Nolasco. While the Marlin team ERAs were always greater than the team FIPs they were much much closer than the Nolasco difference and a good portion of that difference is due to Nolasco's numbers.

 

I do wonder, and if you say varying degrees of defenses behind it, I would be more dismissive of it.  Not saying that it is the only reason, but the fact that he had consistent ERA underperformance and consistent bad defenses behind him, it's hard to discredit that