Article: Ricky Nolasco: Back to the Future

[Secondary User]

For Ricky Nolasco, January 1st has a much different tenor in 2015 than it did in 2014. A year ago, Ricky had recently signed the largest free agent contract in Twins history (though that's not saying much) with the expectation of being a veteran presence to help stabilize a rotation that was in shambles. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, the idea that he doesn't deserve a spot in the opening day rotation has been tossed around by more than a few fans.As time has passed, it's clear that Ricky Nolasco will be expected to be in the starting rotation, but what can be expected from him?

 

When I have discussions about Nolasco, people are quick to point out his less than stellar career numbers. People point to his career (pre-2014) ERA of 4.37, and an ERA- of 108 (scaled to 100, lower is better). They mention that he has had as many seasons with an ERA over 5.00 as he had under 3.00 (two each). The idea is that Ricky Nolasco duped the Twins by having a strong year in a contract season, in the National League, no less, and that his 2014 results are a product of a less than stellar pitcher and moving to the tougher American League.

 

But when you dig a little deeper, you see a bit of a different story. For example, Ricky had a pre-2014 FIP of 3.76, and a FIP- of 92 (scaled to 100, lower is better). For those unfamiliar with FIP and FIP-, I'd suggest reading this article on FIP, and this article on FIP-. Essentially, FIP attempts to look at what a pitcher's performance would be like with league average defense by looking at how the pitcher performed on the only outcomes he has the most control over: home runs, walks and strikeouts.

 

So what does this say about Nolasco? Before 2014, Ricky Nolasco was very good when the ball wasn't put into play, less good when the ball was put into play. So is there something about Ricky's profile that makes him susceptible to under-performing his FIP? Is there something about the balls that were put into play that led his ERA to balloon?

 

The first thing I looked at was his ball in play rates from 2006-2013 compared against qualified starters from that time span. This accounted for a list of 245 pitchers with about 790,000 batters faced and over 590,000 balls contacted (different from balls in play because balls contacted includes home runs).

 

http://i.imgur.com/jqwmD4Z.jpg

 

Unfortunately, this really didn't give any indication one way or the other. His ground ball rate (GB%) is slightly lower, and his fly ball rate (FB%) and line drive rate (LD%) are slightly higher, but his infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) is much higher than the total, though slightly lower than the average. GBs are significantly more likely to be outs and significantly less likely to be extra bases when compared to FBs and LDs, so being slightly on the wrong end of each of these does put him at some risk, but there aren't any drastic swings in either direction. It's also interesting to note that his GB% was 45.1%, 46.6% and 43.0% in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively, though he still underperformed his FIP by 0.65, 1.13 and 0.36 respectively.

 

This graph also shows just how Nolasco has been able to put up a good FIP over the years. He is league average when it comes to HR/FB (and also HR%, though that didn't make the graph) while having better than average K% and BB%.

 

But when you look at the defensive rankings (FanGraphs desciprtion) of the teams he played for, you begin to see some possible explanations:

 

http://i.imgur.com/BvkPJAU.jpg

 

Nolasco annually played in front of a bottom-third defense that cost the team runs. The one hiccup in this train of thought is that during his time with the Dodgers, he still had a 3.18 FIP and a 3.56 ERA despite playing in front of a stout Dodger defense. Then again, 80+ innings isn't a huge sampling, so it could be noise.

 

So what does all of this mean for Ricky Nolasco going forward? Unfortunately, the outlook is bleak. The Twins defense in 2014 ranked 27th in the league with a DEF of -46.5. The infield appears passable. But the only significant positional player who was brought in was Torii Hunter, who doesn't figure to be much of an improvement on the field. What he may bring in leadership and as a mentor is difficult to quantify and predict. Of course, there is help on it's way in the form of Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario appears to have the athleticism to be an average to above-average corner outfielder.

 

But with a likely outfield composed of Arcia and Hunter flanking Hicks/Schafer/Santana, even should Nolasco's FIP return to his career numbers, there's little hope in bucking the trend of his ERA trailing behind his FIP.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

great article!

 

And yes, combining "ball in play pitchers" with terrible defense shows a fundamental misunderstanding of strategy.

[Yossarian]

Well done!

[TCisNotaBear]

I wonder how they are going to use Hunter this year. Will he be the everyday corner outfielder Or will they have him doing some DH? If so, maybe they could go with Arcia Hicks Schafer when Nolasco is pitching. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Really nice article.

[Shane Wahl]

This is a fantastic article. That was a solid discussion with insight and depth.

[h2oface]

When you get lit up for a .316 average against (and it was even worse most of the season), things can get out of hand quickly, and did.  Nolasco makes the whole league a .316 hitter. That is scary.

[jimmer]

When you get lit up for a .316 average against (and it was even worse most of the season), things can get out of hand quickly, and did.  Nolasco makes the whole league a .316 hitter. That is scary.

How would that average against change if the pitcher pitched for even an average defensive team?

Edited January 16, 2015 by jimmer

[Secondary User]

Thanks to everyone for the compliments.

 

 

When you get lit up for a .316 average against (and it was even worse most of the season), things can get out of hand quickly, and did.  Nolasco makes the whole league a .316 hitter. That is scary.

 

As for this, that can be difficult to parse out.  In 2008, when the Marlins had their best defensive season by the metrics, Nolasco had a BABIP of .273.  Then again, Marlins starting pitchers had BABIP of .290, .292, .299, .307, .299, .295, .331, .295

from 2006-2013 respectively (starting with 2013, 2008 is bolded).  There are some success stories with BABIP, and some failings.  Between 2006 and 2013, 37 times a starting pitcher pitched more than 100 innings for the Marlins.  19 of them had BABIP above .300, and 18 of them had BABIP below.  Guys like Anibal Sanchez, Nolasco, Dontrelle Willis had seasons where they were over, but no names like Scott Olson and Jacob Turner have had seasons significantly under .300 as well.

 

Realistically, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle. That extra 2% of LDs Ricky puts up likely hurts him some, but he likely hasn't been helped by his defenses over his career either.

[h2oface]

If the batter doesn't hit the ball........ it doesn't matter what defense is behind the pitcher. Nolasco's whole career is a sad story of selected stats used for making the case that "he should be better than he actually did."  Except he just never was. I hope this year he actually does better than the specialty stats show he should have.  Way better. Trade actual performance for virtual analysis. And get rid of that persistent crotch itch. Maybe that will help.

 

And let me add my thanks and kudos for the fine article.

Edited January 17, 2015 by h2oface

[Secondary User]

If the batter doesn't hit the ball........ it doesn't matter what defense is behind the pitcher. Nolasco's whole career is a sad story of selected stats used for making the case that "he should be better than he actually did."  Except he just never was. I hope this year he actually does better than the specialty stats show he should have.  Way better. Trade actual performance for virtual analysis. And get rid of that persistent crotch itch. Maybe that will help.

 

And let me add my thanks and kudos for the fine article.

 

I'm trying to be optimistic about him.  Honestly, when I look at all his peripherals, there really no reason is he shouldn't be a good pitcher.  Early in his career, he was a bit of a flyball guy, but he seemed to have found a better GB/FB ratio until this season.  His K% has been above average for a starter.  His BB% below average.  I just don't get it.

 

Thanks for the input

[TheLeviathan]

Great article.  It amazes how many people stilly underplay the impact a bad defense can have on a pitcher.

[HitInAPinch]

If the batter doesn't hit the ball........ it doesn't matter what defense is behind the pitcher. Nolasco's whole career is a sad story of selected stats used for making the case that "he should be better than he actually did."  Except he just never was. I hope this year he actually does better than the specialty stats show he should have.  Way better. Trade actual performance for virtual analysis. And get rid of that persistent crotch itch. Maybe that will help.

 

And let me add my thanks and kudos for the fine article.

 

Not to be mean here, but using the 'advanced stats' really loses me.  Subtracting the bad stats, placing the player in a situation where he's more successful is fantasy-land stuff.  It's like saying Nolasco will be significantly more successful using the P427NYY metric [Pitching for the 1927 New York Yankees].

I really appreciate peoples efforts put into developing the Sabermetrics.  But to me, it's not dealing with reality.

[HitInAPinch]

Not to be mean here, but using the 'advanced stats' really loses me.  Subtracting the bad stats, placing the player in a situation where he's more successful is fantasy-land stuff.  It's like saying Nolasco will be significantly more successful using the P427NYY metric [Pitching for the 1927 New York Yankees].

I really appreciate peoples efforts put into developing the Sabermetrics.  But to me, it's not dealing with reality.

 

Upon further review, yeah that came off a little bitchier than I meant.  I apologize.

[ashbury]

I really appreciate peoples efforts put into developing the Sabermetrics.  But to me, it's not dealing with reality.

What is it that remains, that you do appreciate, then?

[Secondary User]

Not to be mean here, but using the 'advanced stats' really loses me.  Subtracting the bad stats, placing the player in a situation where he's more successful is fantasy-land stuff.  It's like saying Nolasco will be significantly more successful using the P427NYY metric [Pitching for the 1927 New York Yankees].

I really appreciate peoples efforts put into developing the Sabermetrics.  But to me, it's not dealing with reality.

 

It may not have come off how you wanted, but there is absolutely some truth to it.  Metrics can only go so far into explaining outcomes, let alone predicting them.  There are always going to be subtleties, intricacies and intangibles that just can't be quantified.  People who use advanced statistics intelligently will always be open and honest with these 'flaws'.  As an example:

 

 

I'm trying to be optimistic about him.  Honestly, when I look at all his peripherals, there really is no reason he shouldn't be a good pitcher.  Early in his career, he was a bit of a flyball guy, but he seemed to have found a better GB/FB ratio until this season.  His K% has been above average for a starter.  His BB% below average.  I just don't get it.

 

I'm not saying he has been a good pitcher over his career, just that his peripherals that have been shown to best correlate with success have been good.  Maybe he has a tendency to alter his delivery every once in a while that makes it easy for a hitter to pick the ball up out of his hand.  Maybe he gets frustrated, grips his pitches too tightly and it results in poor sequencing that inflates his ERA while his peripherals remain mostly untouched.  There are all sorts of things that we just can't quantify that play a role in his performance.  But as a fan (and a statistician by trade), looking at the situation from the outside, I work with what I have to try and give myself the best understanding and make the best predictions.  And advanced statistics really do tell a very large part of the story of baseball.

[ND-Fan]

I believe the Twin defense will be much better this year than last year look at last year we had Colabella playing outfield for more than month, Willingham playing outfield, and Santanna playing out position and learning to play centerfield. I look at Twins last month of the season the Twins played much better outfield defense than did for the first half of the season. Hunter is still better outfielder than we had playing outfield last year his routes will be better and he can fundamentally play position much better than we have had. Also Arcia I believe will get better fundamentally he still young and with Schafer and Hicks available he can be replaced in late innings by one of them. The outfield defense will be improved over 2014 season and we should be much better hitting outfield too! Also I believe there is help also on the way that Minnesota in future could have elite group of outfielders. We could in the near future have outfield of Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks which could be quite outstanding defensively and if all can carry through with minor league numbers on hitting could be quite an outfield. Which should make any pitcher happy to have behind them.

[adorduan]

I believe the Twin defense will be much better this year than last year look at last year we had Colabella playing outfield for more than month, Willingham playing outfield, and Santanna playing out position and learning to play centerfield. I look at Twins last month of the season the Twins played much better outfield defense than did for the first half of the season. Hunter is still better outfielder than we had playing outfield last year his routes will be better and he can fundamentally play position much better than we have had. Also Arcia I believe will get better fundamentally he still young and with Schafer and Hicks available he can be replaced in late innings by one of them. The outfield defense will be improved over 2014 season and we should be much better hitting outfield too! Also I believe there is help also on the way that Minnesota in future could have elite group of outfielders. We could in the near future have outfield of Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks which could be quite outstanding defensively and if all can carry through with minor league numbers on hitting could be quite an outfield. Which should make any pitcher happy to have behind them.

  Not to nitpick, but a late inning defensive replacement isn't going to help someone like Nolasco, he will be out of the game by then.

[GoGonzoJournal]

Great look at Nolasco's troubles with defense, but I think the move to make him serviceable has already taken place. The signing of Ervin Santana to be the #2 starter will give Nolasco a shot to, at the very least, win more games against #3 starters. I don't see Nolasco as anything better than a 4+ ERA guy, but that can win you games against #3 starters.

[JB_Iowa]

Great look at Nolasco's troubles with defense, but I think the move to make him serviceable has already taken place. The signing of Ervin Santana to be the #2 starter will give Nolasco a shot to, at the very least, win more games against #3 starters. .

 

 

But some manager (I think it was Molitor not Gardy) said this doesn't really matter.  That after a couple of times through the rotation and given varying schedules, weather problems, etc.. you don't often get 1 v. 1, 2 v. 2, etc.  Of course, playoffs are a different matter.

[Secondary User]

Great look at Nolasco's troubles with defense, but I think the move to make him serviceable has already taken place. The signing of Ervin Santana to be the #2 starter will give Nolasco a shot to, at the very least, win more games against #3 starters. I don't see Nolasco as anything better than a 4+ ERA guy, but that can win you games against #3 starters.

 

But some manager (I think it was Molitor not Gardy) said this doesn't really matter.  That after a couple of times through the rotation and given varying schedules, weather problems, etc.. you don't often get 1 v. 1, 2 v. 2, etc.  Of course, playoffs are a different matter.

 

Even if he's not facing 3s and 4s, the presence of Santana could hopefully have some emotional/psychological impact as well.  Take some pressure off.  How much affect that will have though, if it even has any, is tough to say.. 

[JB_Iowa]

Even if he's not facing 3s and 4s, the presence of Santana could hopefully have some emotional/psychological impact as well.  Take some pressure off.  How much affect that will have though, if it even has any, is tough to say.. 

 

I just hope he gets off to a better start this season,  And I agree that Santana's presence may be beneficial,  May also be helpful that  Hughes did well.

 

I'm a bit of a believer in good pitching breeding good pitching.

[Thrylos]

Speaking of order of starters and the assumption that Nolasco will start the third game of the season:  Do not bet on it.  Hughes, Nolasco and Santana (alphabetically) are equally likely to be the opening day starter as it stands now.  And of all 3 Nolasco has been than more often.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Thrylos

[Secondary User]

Speaking of order of starters and the assumption that Nolasco will start the third game of the season:  Do not bet on it.  Hughes, Nolasco and Santana (alphabetically) are equally likely to be the opening day starter as it stands now.  And of all 3 Nolasco has been than more often.

 

After the season Hughes had last year, I would be very concerned about Molitor's sanity if he wasn't starting the opening game.

[glunn]

Thanks for posting this, Secondary User.  I hope that we see a lot more from you as time passes.

[jokin]

Great article.  It amazes how many people stilly underplay the impact a bad defense can have on a pitcher.

 

It amazes not by not as much how many in general, but by how many who should know better after two decades or so in the seats of power.

Edited January 19, 2015 by jokin

[James Richter]

It should also be noted that in his 9 starts post-DL, Nolasco's overall game was very much in line with what he'd done throughout his career. I'd expect him to perform that way again in 2015. Which, with this defense, probably means a low-4.00 ERA.

[JB_Iowa]

ricky nolasco ‏@RNolasco47  · 46s47 seconds ago 
Minneapolis here i come! Hate to leave beautiful sunny warm LA! #fanfest #freezing #ughhh #smh

 

 

He should have been here last week.  It's balmy by comparison now (at least in Iowa).

[Brock Beauchamp]

The dude just doesn't get it. Stop bashing Minnesota weather, Ricky. The fanbase is going to hate you for it in time.

 

At least pretend like you want to be here. Somebody gave you $50m for what has been about a buck-fifty worth of performance thus far. Keep your mouth shut.

[JB_Iowa]

I think he's angling to be traded,

 

Get a clue, Ricky.  Pitch well the 1st half and maybe they'll be able to flip you.