Article: A Look Back: The 2012 Draft

[diehardtwinsfan]

wow... Griffey will be the first guy taken 1 overall to get into the HOF. That's an eye opener. As for Mauer, I think switching hurts him. Another couple years behind the dish and I think he'd have been a no-brainer. What he did in the limited time he caught is pretty impressive, but baseball is littered with guys with shorter careers who did very well with them. Time will tell I guess. He may be one of those guys who is debated for many years (unless of course he puts together a couple of stellar seasons as a 1B, but I don't think he hits enough HRs to sway voters).

[diehardtwinsfan]

I really like the philosophy of Deron Johnson to draft more on upside and potential.

This. I know it's not fantasy, but I tend to do the same thing with late round fantasy picks. They aren't much different than what you get on the WW. Draft for upside. Sure, that kid might be a massive project with a low probability of success, but finding just one of those late round type gems every other year can be a massive boost for an org.

[Mike Sixel]

Why are they Twins signing a bunch of mediocre RP, and not promoting these guys if they are so good? Lots of other teams are bringing up RP fast, this strategy doesn't do much if they insist on guys moving up one wrung a year......are any of the likely RP even in AA yet?

[bird]

You've made this claim repeatedly, but I'd really like to see some substantiation. I think your premise that other teams are moving their high-ceiling RP's fast and the Twins are not is false. It might be a false perception on your part related to the ridiculous number of injuries we've had to deal with regarding the high-profile RP draftees.

 

We can identify a large group of Twins RP's who have been rated as Top 25 prospects by various listers. I'm identifying their level and inserting the highest ranking I can find for each in parentheses by their name:

 

1. Michael Tonkin, AAA, (10). Not rushed, and certainly not held back either, as his MLB performance record so far isn't exactly sterling.

 

2. A.J. Achter, AAA, (25). Saw MLB time late last year. Hardly a future All-Star.

 

3. Mason Melotakis, AA, (10). Season-ending injury.

 

4. Nick Burdi, A+, (10). Will experience his first full spring training as a pro in February. He pitched in the College WS, and calls for him to start his career with the Twins or at some higher level don't take into account the value of protecting him and watching over him at Fort Myers.

 

5. Zack Jones, A+, (18). Despite injury problems, he pitched in the AFL. Hardly delayed.

 

6. Jake Reed, A-, (16). Saw AFL action in his first year as a pro, will see his first spring training in five weeks. Hardly being held back. Blocked at A+ by Burdi, Jones, Brandon Peterson, Brian Gilbert, etc.

 

7. Yorman Landa, A-, (25). Had injuries, is very young.

 

8. Randy Rosario, A-, (25). Injured all year, very young prospect.

 

9. Michael Cedaroth, A-, (21). Converted to starter, first year pro.

 

10. Luke Bard, A- (11). Out all year.

 

11. JT Chargois, A- (13). Out all year.

 

Do you have other examples?

[Mike Sixel]

Name the RP on the roster in the last 5 years that are under 25........and were drafted by the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Or that are on the MLB roster w/in 3 years of being drafted?

[bird]

Name the RP on the roster in the last 5 years that are under 25........and were drafted by the Twins.

 

The answer to that question supports the commonly accepted fact that the pitching pipeline was weak for a few years.

 

It does not support your premise that other teams are moving RP's at a fast rate or that the Twins are cluelessly delaying the advancement of talented pitchers, which is the premise you're promoting based on your comments here and on FanGraphs. You'd like us to believe there is some larger problem based on the incompetence of the organization, and this is not the case whatsoever. Based on the current abundance of pitching talent, the opposite is true, mike.

 

I would guess that, by the beginning of 2016 and maybe sooner, you will find at least four pitchers on the active roster younger than 25. Compare that to your beloved Cards. Of the 17 pitchers that spent time on the active roster for any period of time in 2014, 4 were 25 or under IIRC. And this has absolutely nothing to do with more aggressive advancement. It has everything to do with how terrifically talented those 4 guys are.

Edited January 16, 2015 by birdwatcher

[bird]

Once again, mike, which of the eleven names I listed do you think should have been moved up two wrungs but were not as you claim they should?

Edited January 16, 2015 by birdwatcher

[ashbury]

which is the premise you're promoting based on your comments here and on FanGraphs.

Moderator's note: Please avoid making things overly personal.  Don't try so hard to place a poster's comments in some larger context.  Particularly with the offhand comment about another site, it almost comes across as stalking.   We know each other and it's hard sometimes, but try to keep things to the subject at hand. 

 

Or that are on the MLB roster w/in 3 years of being drafted?

Conversely, it would be well to avoid banging the same drum in thread after thread, about the team's pace in promoting prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

Fair enough, ashbury........but this draft featured RP, and one of the reasons I don't like that is that I don't feel the Twins promote them fast enough.

 

But I'm willing to stop the conversation. If the reason they don't have any good, young RP is that they didn't draft well.......then that's the reason. We'll see if things really change or not as we go along.

[bird]

OK, Ash, I'll try not to run across my pal mike's comments on FanGraphs.  In my defense his was the first of two comments there and mirrored the comment he made here and wasn't just some offhand thing. And mike is a big boy.  I'm guessing his skin is thick enough to handle a little friendly challenge of a criticism he makes that repeatedly suggests rather clearly a view that it's a symptom of a larger problem. I didn't exactly have to do any heavy lifting to place it in its proper and larger context, and it wasn't a personal attack on my part in any way.

[ashbury]

Fair enough, ashbury........

Mike, I attempted to message you but your mailbox appears full.  Please don't engage in discussion of moderation within a baseball thread - there is a forum for discussion of moderation, or you can always PM a mod (if your mailbox isn't full...)

[Seth Stohs]

Fair enough, ashbury........but this draft featured RP, and one of the reasons I don't like that is that I don't feel the Twins promote them fast enough.

 

But I'm willing to stop the conversation. If the reason they don't have any good, young RP is that they didn't draft well.......then that's the reason. We'll see if things really change or not as we go along.

 

But again, the guys have been hurt. Can't promote players that are injured.

 

And Burdi and Reed were in their first pro seasons after pitching since January. They were on a tight leash, pitching about every third or fourth day. No reason to promote them to the big leagues yet.

 

Tonkin's had a few opportunities. Others were hurt. It's not that they didn't draft well. There's no way to know that yet. Getting hurt isn't a drafting problem, it's a thing that happens to pitchers. 

 

And, the success rate of college relievers rushed to the big leagues in their pro debut season or even early in their first full season is not great at all. Ryan Wagner comes to mind. The Royals called up their top pick in this year's draft and put him in their bullpen for the playoffs... but it was for the playoffs, not for a September call up. Huge difference. The thought is too that the Royals want him to start so he'll likely head down to the minors at least for a couple of months to start 2015.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Speaking of 2012, I find it somewhat amusing that this was considered a very weak draft.  I remember a lot of us being unhappy that we had so many extra picks in what was a week draft, and then being rather upset when the Twins went out and drafted a bunch of college relievers. 

 

In retrospect, it's beginning to look like it was a very special draft for the Twins.  Buxton and Berrios look like they could be all stars, or at the very least well above average players.  Walker is a wild card given his contact issues, but if he figures them out, he's a stud.  Combine it with these college relievers, most of whom (at the least the healthy ones) have been very successful thus far in their roles and this is looking like a draft that could easily produce 4 or 5 regular players and a few more minor role players.  That's pretty impressive when you think about it, as getting 3 big leaguers in a draft is typically considered successful. 

[bird]

But again, the guys have been hurt. Can't promote players that are injured.

 

And Burdi and Reed were in their first pro seasons after pitching since January. They were on a tight leash, pitching about every third or fourth day. No reason to promote them to the big leagues yet.

 

Tonkin's had a few opportunities. Others were hurt. It's not that they didn't draft well. There's no way to know that yet. Getting hurt isn't a drafting problem, it's a thing that happens to pitchers. 

 

And, the success rate of college relievers rushed to the big leagues in their pro debut season or even early in their first full season is not great at all. Ryan Wagner comes to mind. The Royals called up their top pick in this year's draft and put him in their bullpen for the playoffs... but it was for the playoffs, not for a September call up. Huge difference. The thought is too that the Royals want him to start so he'll likely head down to the minors at least for a couple of months to start 2015.

Another thing to point out is that having a lot of under-25 relief pitchers rushed on to your active roster in no way means you have your act together. The Detroit Tigers had a bullpen mess all last year, and no team in the division promoted more relievers under the age of 25 onto their active roster. So, it's not about age, it's about talent, MLB readiness, and health, and that's it. Of course Detroit is not a great example, given that they've now traded 6 of 10 prospects from their 2014 BA Top 10.

 

The 2012 draft is promising, and the RP pipeline on the whole is too, but we haven't exactly cornered the market on this kind of talent. Having numbers is important because most of these guys will end up being underwhelming.

[lightfoot789]

This was an article on Jim Cricketts Top 15 from 2013 in which he sat and talked to the Twins great.  Gotta love how TONY OLIVA THINKS.

 

10. Adam Brett Walker (OF) – Honestly, in my mind, the Twins have a definite “Top 9” prospects and then seven guys that are all pretty equal that fill out a Top “16” list.

 

I’m giving Walker the nod in to the Top 10 because I saw the way Tony Oliva’s eyes lit up watching him play. When Oliva made an appearance in Cedar Rapids this summer, I found myself in the pressbox alone with him for an inning or so. He wanted to talk about Walker. I told him I thought Walker needed to learn to take that outside pitch to the opposite field and Oliva’s response was something along the lines of, “Noooo, why?!   Let him pull the ball!” And you could just see in his eyes and his smile that he really liked Walker as a hitter. With that kind of endorsement, how could I not include Walker in the Top 10?

 

 

I think he will eventually do both.  Hit for power to LF and RF.  He actually hit a few more HRs to RF side in Fort Myers this past season.  I expect even more this season in AA as he figures out what type of hitter he is at the professional level.  Still have him as the steal of the 2012 draft.