Article: A Look Back: The 2012 Draft

[Seth Stohs]

In 2012, the Minnesota Twins had an important draft. They had the #2 overall pick and six picks in the first 100 selections. At the time, they were coming off of their second straight 90-loss season and the farm system was not considered strong. They needed to add talent. There were certainly some dual strategies at work. Today we’ll look back at the Twins 2012 draft.After losing Michael Cuddyer to Colorado via free agency, the Twins acquired two additional draft picks, the Rockies' second round pick and a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. Jason Kubel also left as a free agent to the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Twins also got a supplemental pick for him.

 

The MLB draft is incredibly difficult to judge or even analyze for more than a decade for various reasons. Top prospects don’t always make it big and there are hidden gems found in late rounds. However, when you have the opportunity to draft second overall in the draft, it is important to get it right.

 

As Aaron Gleeman pointed out on this past week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it’s important to get the early picks right, but even mid-to-late first round picks, much less picks in rounds two through forty, are mostly a crapshoot.

 

HIGH-UPSIDE PREPSTERS

 

The Twins have had a lot of success with athletic, toolsy high school hitters in the past. Torii Hunter (1993), Michael Cuddyer (1998), Joe Mauer (2001), Denard Span (2002) and Ben Revere (2007) are some examples of this. Byron Buxton certainly fits that model. His tools and athleticism are truly elite. When healthy (2013), he was the best player in minor league baseball and put himself on track to be in the big leagues as a 19-year-old. Unfortunately a smorgasbord of injuries cost him a lot of development time and delayed his big league debut.

 

The Twins have had less success with drafting and developing high school pitchers. The most recent pitcher that the Twins drafted out of high school who made starts was Anthony Swarzak. Aside from Twins Hall of Famer Brad Radke, who the Twins took with their 8^th round pick in 1991, others are few and far between. However, JO Berrios certainly displayed the potential and the work ethic to break that mold. He has a chance to be in the big leagues before he turns 22.

 

DRAFTING COLLEGE RELIEVERS

 

After that, however, we saw the Twins make another interesting shift in thinking. Five of their next six picks were college relievers. The Twins clearly focused on obtaining velocity through the draft. Although those five pitchers were relievers in college, the Twins made it clear that several of them would be given an opportunity to start. That makes sense. Starters have the opportunity to work 170 to 200 innings in a season whereas even the top relievers will likely top out at 70 innings in a season.

 

Even if the pitcher does go back to the bullpen, the opportunity to start has other benefits. He can work on secondary pitches. However, as a starter, he will have to work out of many situations that he will see coming out of the bullpen. It’s just that he is able to go through those experiences in the 3^rd or 4^th inning rather than late in the game.

 

That theory is sound, but there were certainly concerns with that strategy. One of them was an increased injury risk, whether real or perceived. Of course, that is going to be a concern with any pitcher.

 

The thought was that a couple of these guys would get up to the big leagues and pitch out of the bullpen. The thinking was also be that if even one of them reached the big leagues as a starter, the strategy would be a success. So, two-and-a-half seasons into their professional career, how has this strategy worked out for the Twins? Here is a quick look at those five college pitchers:

 

LUKE BARD – RHP – Georgia Tech

 

With the 42^nd overall pick (supplemental pick for losing Kubel), the Twins took the right-hander. The thought was that he would be given the opportunity to start. However, in 2012 and 2013, he worked a combined 19.1 innings in the minors and then missed the entire 2014 season. At the end of the 2013 season in Ft. Myers, observers pointed out that he stuff was absolutely filthy. However, while rehabbing from offseason surgery last spring, doctors found that he had a muscle completely detached in his shoulder area and there was debris in his shoulder joint. He had surgery in mid-May and will likely be out for 12 months. Bard is as classy as it gets and when healthy, has really good stuff.

 

MASON MELOTAKIS – LHP – Northwestern State – Louisiana

 

With the 63^rd overall pick, the Twins took a hard-throwing left-hander. Mason Melotakis had been clocked in the upper-90s out of the bullpen in college. In 2012 and 2013, he spent most of his time as a starter. Very early in the 2014 season, he moved to the bullpen and it wasn’t long before he was promoted to AA. As a starter, he worked in the low-90s and worked on two additional pitches. Out of the bullpen, he was again throwing in the upper-90s and getting significantly more strikeouts. Unfortunately late in the season, he developed elbow pain and in August he had Tommy John surgery. He will likely miss most of the 2015 season.

 

JT CHARGOIS – RHP – Rice University

 

JT Chargois was a two-way player for Rice who was one of two closers on their roster. He was the pick the Twins acquired from the Rockies for Cuddyer. After signing with the Twins, he pitched 16 innings in 12 games at Elizabethton. He tried to rehab some elbow discomfort through much of the 2013 season before having late-season Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2014 season. However, he returned to the mound in the Instructional League and impressed everyone with a fastball that hit 99 mph.

 

ZACK JONES – RHP – San Jose State

 

The Twins used their third round pick on a hitter, but returned to the collegiate bullpen arms in the fourth round when they picked San Jose State reliever Zack Jones. His upper 90s fastball has been impressive. His first full season in the pros was spent in Ft. Myers in 2013. He pitched well while trying to work on his control and his slider. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League, but while there was shut down with a strange, cold sensation in his right hand fingers. A couple of months later, it was found that he had an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He required surgery and rest. While recovering, they found blood clots in his leg. He returned to Ft. Myers in May and started a rehab program. He returned to the mound and ended the regular season as the Miracle closer, leading a dominant bullpen that helped the team to their first Florida State League title. He returned to the Arizona Fall League where he struggled with control but didn’t allow a run. He is back at 100 percent and was throwing between 95 and 98 mph.

 

TYLER DUFFEY – RHP – Rice University

 

With their fifth round pick, the Twins took the other half of Rice’s closer share. Tyler Duffey was a hard-throwing reliever who, after signing, dominated at Elizabethton, walking two and striking out 27 in 19 innings. His first full season was split between Cedar Rapids (where he pitched the first seven innings of a no-hitter early in the season) and Ft. Myers. He made 18 starts before finishing the season in the bullpen. In 2014, he began with four starts in Ft. Myers before spending the majority of his season at New Britain. He finished the season with three starts in Rochester. He worked 149.2 innings. Recently, he was named as a non-roster Invitee to Twins big league spring training. A mid-90s fastball and two additional pitches and he is now considered a legit future big league starting pitcher.

 

These five will have to be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the 2015 season or be made available in the Rule 5 draft in December. Duffey has been very good as a starter and has a chance to be a big league starter (or a successful reliever). The four other arms have all missed significant time due to injury and surgeries. These guys are all 24 years old and still have a good chance to get to the big leagues as relievers. They have big velocity and if things go well, they could still be late-inning, impact arms in the bullpen. Has the strategy proven wise? That’s to be determined. Time will tell.

 

OTHER 2012 DRAFT PICKS

 

Adam Brett Walker is a year younger than the above college arms. He’ll still be just 23 years old during the 2015 season. He has played at one level each year and been one of the most prolific power and production hitters in minor league baseball. He has led his league in home runs and RBI the last two years and has a total of 66 homers in his two-and-a-half seasons. Anyone who can hit 25 homers in the Florida State League is worth paying strong attention to. As has been discussed here a lot, he will need to make more contact, but he could have a big league future. He was the team’s third round pick, 97^th overall.

 

In the 17^th round, the Twins drafted Dalton Hicks, a first baseman from Central Florida. The hulking left-handed hitter provides a lot of power and production. He spent all of 2014 in Ft. Myers. He led minor league baseball in RBI in 2013, barely topping Walker.

 

MORE COLLEGE ARMS

 

In the 10^th round, they drafted DJ Baxendale out of Arkansas. He moved quickly up to Double-A after two months of his first full season as a pro, but he has struggled at Double-A, primarily just staying healthy.

 

In the 11^th round, the Twins took lefty Taylor Rogers from the University of Kentucky. He was my choice for Twins starting pitcher of the year in 2013 when he spent most of his season with the Miracle. Last year in New Britain, he started slowly but came on and pitched very well. He pitched a little bit--unfortunately he missed about a month after being hit in the arm by a line drive in his first start-- in the Arizona Fall League. Like Duffey, he received an invite to big league spring training.

 

Alex Muren was the Twins 12^th round pick out of Cal State-Northridge. He has quietly pitched really well and reached Ft. Myers in 2014. The right-hander is a groundball machine out of the bullpen.

 

In the 35^th round, the Twins drafted Jared Wilson, but he returned to UC-Santa Barbara for his senior year, but the Twins took him in the 19^th round in 2013. He pitched in Cedar Rapids in 2014.

 

HIGH SCHOOL BATS

 

Byron Buxton signed for about $200,000 dollars below slot, so the Twins had a bit of money to spend on other picks. In the 20^th round, the Twins selected Florida high school outfielder Zack Larson. They gave him about $200,000 to sign. He has hit well wherever he has been. Unfortunately, he missed three months of this past season because of a hamstring injury.

 

In the seventh round, the Twins drafted Jorge Fernandez, an athletic outfielder out of Puerto Rico. He spent two years in the GCL and then posted an .802 OPS in Elizabethton last year.

 

The Twins were able to sign 16^th round pick Will Hurt away from a scholarship at Coastal Carolina. He went to the same high school as Ben Revere. His game is speed and defense. He hasn’t hit much in his three years in the rookie leagues but plays very good defense in the middle infield.

 

 

There’s a quick look at the Twins 2012 draft. Incomplete would be the draft grade for each of the above players since they all remain in the organization. It’s very possible that anywhere from one to four of these guys will debut with the Twins in 2015. More likely, at least five of them will be added to the 40-man roster after the season if they aren’t already on it.

 

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[nater79a]

Depending on how their seasons go this year, this 2012 class could add a ton of guys to the 40-man roster in November, if not before.  Could see Chargois, Z Jones, Duffey, Rogers, Melotakis and ABW all being protected. Buxton would obviously need to be added if he gets the big league call this year. Then add in wildcards like Engelb Vielma (I-FA) and Travis Harrison ('11 class) - wow.

 

Granted, not all will have production in '15 resulting in a Rule 5 risk, but a number of them will for sure.

 

Wonder if you could slide a guy like Melotakis through without adding to the 40-man after his lost season to TJ? 

[Thrylos]

 

 

In the seventh round, the Twins drafted Jorge Fernandez, an athletic outfielder out of Puerto Rico. He spent two years in the GCL and then posted an .802 OPS in Elizabethton last year.

 

Fernandez, even though played both C/OF in school he has played almost exclusively at C (and a bit at first base) and he has been a quality receiver as well.  I think that he will be the real thing and have him ranked 19th overall in my Twins prospects' list and second-best C prospect after Mitch Garver.  Definitely the sleeper in this group (Larson potentially also)

 

One comment: 2-3 seasons is not that much post-mortem to evaluate a draft.  Give it a good 10 seasons    We should really be talking about the 2005 draft right now instead, when you know how things turned out (and that was not a bad draft, just the Twins traded or did not sign the best players they drafted...)

[clutterheart]

Its a big season for a lot of these guys. There is a lot of bullpen arms in this system so guys like Melotakis, Bard & Chargois are about to get passed by.

 

Rogers & Duffy shot at a back of the rotation starting spot is blocked by Meyer May Berrios Gibson and Nolasco.

 

Barring some unforseen breakout, I just cant see how any of these guys -except Buxton- will get a real chance in 2015.

[Thegrin]

The comments that you have to wait 10 years to judge a draft made me curious. I went to baseball-reference.com to check out the numbers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2006&draft_type=junreg&

It is very interesting to scroll up and down through the drafts and see the players that got a look by the Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

God I hated that college reliever strategy. Hated it.

 

Given the depth of other high upside starters right now, they should all move back to the pen, and up to the majors faster rather than slower. But, the Twins seem reluctant to do what other MLB teams are doing in that regard, so I have my doubts.

[Dantes929]

Sometimes I think that the day after we draft and sign a pitcher we should give them shoulder and elbow surgery.   It would just save a lot of time and I don't hear too often of guys having that same surgery twice.     Saying Buxton was the best player in minor league baseball when he was in A ball might be taking in too much territory..

[gunnarthor]

God I hated that college reliever strategy. Hated it.

 

Given the depth of other high upside starters right now, they should all move back to the pen, and up to the majors faster rather than slower. But, the Twins seem reluctant to do what other MLB teams are doing in that regard, so I have my doubts.

It seemed people hated the Twins strategy of drafting under Radcliff, too.  So Johnson decided to go after flamethrowers instead.  I preferred Radcliff's strategy of grabbing college pitchers like Baker, Slowey etc.  Alex Wood and his 90 mph fastball would have looked good in the second round.  IIRC, the high school pitcher the Twins were linked to in 2012 was Rocheseter's Mitch Brown.  But they passed on him and he struggled his first few years.  Had a bit of a better year last year in low A but still far away.

 

I don't have a problem with letting relievers start for as long as they can (Klaw has said the same thing).  First, the Twins have a ton of potential impact bullpen arms so I'm not worried about which ones are actually used.  Second, Johnson is hoping that one or two of these relievers can turn into a solid starter - or better.  Individually, the odds are against them but as a large group (he drafted a bunch more in 2014), perhaps it works.  I think the Rangers have had a little success moving solid relievers into starters.  And lastly, the return on picks in the range the Twins were drafting relievers isn't particularly good.  If they get one solid reliever out of the draft to go along with Buxton and Berrios, it's a great draft.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

This is who I see making the 40 Man after 2015 season and who I see getting released or traded.  I allowed for signing 2+ free agents in off season.  Besides the 2012 draftees, we have to account for quick movers like Burdi and Reed.

 

BOLD = Released or Traded
 

CURRENT 40 MAN ROSTER
P  PITCHERS  DOB
P A.J. Achter 27-Aug-88
P Logan Darnell 2-Feb-89
P Brian Duensing 22-Feb-83
P Casey Fien 21-Oct-83
P Kyle Gibson 23-Oct-87
P J.R. Graham 14-Jan-90
P Phil Hughes 24-Jun-86
P Trevor May 23-Sep-89
P Alex Meyer 3-Jan-90
P Tommy Milone 16-Feb-87
P Ricky Nolasco 13-Dec-82
P Lester Oliveros 28-May-88
P Mike Pelfrey 14-Jan-84
P Glen Perkins 2-Mar-83
P Ryan Pressly 15-Dec-88
P Stephen Pryor 23-Jul-89
P Ervin Santana 12-Dec-82
P Tim Stauffer 2-Jun-82
P Caleb Thielbar 31-Jan-87
P Aaron Thompson 28-Feb-87
P Michael Tonkin 19-Nov-89
P Jason Wheeler 27-Oct-90

C CATCHERS DOB
C Josmil Pinto 31-Mar-89
C Kurt Suzuki 4-Oct-83
 

INF INFIELDERS DOB
INF Brian Dozier 15-May-87
INF Eduardo Escobar 5-Jan-89
INF Joe Mauer 19-Apr-83
INF Trevor Plouffe 15-Jun-86
INF Jorge Polanco 5-Jul-93
INF Miguel Sano 11-May-93
INF Danny Santana 7-Nov-90
INF Kennys Vargas 1-Aug-90

OF OUTFIELDERS DOB
OF Oswaldo Arcia 9-May-91
OF Chris Herrmann 24-Nov-87
OF Aaron Hicks 2-Oct-89
OF Torii Hunter 18-Jul-75
OF Max Kepler 10-Feb-93
OF Eduardo Nunez 15-Jun-87
OF Eddie Rosario 28-Sep-91
OF Jordan Schafer

-----------------------------------------------------
These names listed below are the 2012 Draftees who likely could make the 2016  40 Man roster.  This list also accounts for quick movers and older draftees (2010 & 2011) who could have Breakout seasons:   Bold = My choices

 

P 2012 DRAFTEES DOB
P D.J. Baxendale 12/8/1990
P Alex Muren 11/6/1991
P Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
P Zack Jones 12/4/1990
P Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
P Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
 

P 2012 / Injury Issues DOB
P Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
P J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
P Luke Bard 11/13/1990  (MAYBE)
 
P 2014 Draft / BUT GOOD DOB
P Jake Reed 9/29/1992
P Nick Burdi 1/19/1993
 
P Older Picks / Potential DOB
P Madison Boer 11/9/1989
P Brett Lee 9/20/1990 (Could be this years DUFFY)
P Tim Shibuya 9/14/1989  (Sleeper)
P Corey Williams 7/4/1990
P Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
 
 
INF INFIELDERS DOB
INF Niko Goodrum 2/28/1992
INF Levi Michael 2/9/1991
 
 
OF OUTFIELDERS DOB
OF Travis Harrison 10/17/1992
OF Adam Brett Walker II 10/18/1991
OF Byron Buxton 12/18/1993

 

[ashbury]

Sometimes I think that the day after we draft and sign a pitcher we should give them shoulder and elbow surgery.   It would just save a lot of time and I don't hear too often of guys having that same surgery twice.    

Along the same lines as the strategy of cutting one of the tires on your car and buying a new one, just before a long trip, because, come on, what are the odds of you having two flat tires?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Keep in mind that 40 man considerations are different for college guys than HS guys, as the HS guys get an extra year before needing to be added.

 

That said, so far, this is turning out to have been an excellent draft. Here's to hoping those guys force some tough decisions in the near future.

[nater79a]

Keep in mind that 40 man considerations are different for college guys than HS guys, as the HS guys get an extra year before needing to be added.

 

That said, so far, this is turning out to have been an excellent draft. Here's to hoping those guys force some tough decisions in the near future.

 

Mostly true, based more on age. Could have an older H.S. kid that only gets four years, I guess.

 

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster and:

– were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or

– were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.

[DJL44]

They need to use some of these C+/C prospects in trades as they are loaded with them. They can't all make it on the roster so they might as well try to get something of value for them.

[nater79a]

This is who I see making the 40 Man after 2015 season and who I see getting released or traded.  I allowed for signing 2+ free agents in off season.  Besides the 2012 draftees, we have to account for quick movers like Burdi and Reed.

 

BOLD = Released or Traded

 

CURRENT 40 MAN ROSTER

P  PITCHERS  DOB

P A.J. Achter 27-Aug-88

P Logan Darnell 2-Feb-89

P Brian Duensing 22-Feb-83

P Casey Fien 21-Oct-83

P Kyle Gibson 23-Oct-87

P J.R. Graham 14-Jan-90

P Phil Hughes 24-Jun-86

P Trevor May 23-Sep-89

P Alex Meyer 3-Jan-90

P Tommy Milone 16-Feb-87

P Ricky Nolasco 13-Dec-82

P Lester Oliveros 28-May-88

P Mike Pelfrey 14-Jan-84

P Glen Perkins 2-Mar-83

P Ryan Pressly 15-Dec-88

P Stephen Pryor 23-Jul-89

P Ervin Santana 12-Dec-82

P Tim Stauffer 2-Jun-82

P Caleb Thielbar 31-Jan-87

P Aaron Thompson 28-Feb-87

P Michael Tonkin 19-Nov-89

P Jason Wheeler 27-Oct-90

C CATCHERS DOB

C Josmil Pinto 31-Mar-89

C Kurt Suzuki 4-Oct-83

 

INF INFIELDERS DOB

INF Brian Dozier 15-May-87

INF Eduardo Escobar 5-Jan-89

INF Joe Mauer 19-Apr-83

INF Trevor Plouffe 15-Jun-86

INF Jorge Polanco 5-Jul-93

INF Miguel Sano 11-May-93

INF Danny Santana 7-Nov-90

INF Kennys Vargas 1-Aug-90

OF OUTFIELDERS DOB

OF Oswaldo Arcia 9-May-91

OF Chris Herrmann 24-Nov-87

OF Aaron Hicks 2-Oct-89

OF Torii Hunter 18-Jul-75

OF Max Kepler 10-Feb-93

OF Eduardo Nunez 15-Jun-87

OF Eddie Rosario 28-Sep-91

OF Jordan Schafer

 

-----------------------------------------------------

These names listed below are the 2012 Draftees who likely could make the 2016  40 Man roster.  This list also accounts for quick movers and older draftees (2010 & 2011) who could have Breakout seasons:   Bold = My choices

 

P 2012 DRAFTEES DOB

P D.J. Baxendale 12/8/1990

P Alex Muren 11/6/1991

P Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990

P Zack Jones 12/4/1990

P Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990

P Jose Berrios 5/27/1994

 

P 2012 / Injury Issues DOB

P Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991

P J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990

P Luke Bard 11/13/1990  (MAYBE)

 

P 2014 Draft / BUT GOOD DOB

P Jake Reed 9/29/1992

P Nick Burdi 1/19/1993

 

P Older Picks / Potential DOB

P Madison Boer 11/9/1989

P Brett Lee 9/20/1990 (Could be this years DUFFY)

P Tim Shibuya 9/14/1989  (Sleeper)

P Corey Williams 7/4/1990

P Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988

 

 

INF INFIELDERS DOB

INF Niko Goodrum 2/28/1992

INF Levi Michael 2/9/1991

 

 

OF OUTFIELDERS DOB

OF Travis Harrison 10/17/1992

OF Adam Brett Walker II 10/18/1991

OF Byron Buxton 12/18/1993

 

 

 

Not sure about Shibuya and Levi Michael.

 

Harrison would also need to re-discover his power at Chattanooga to be added (15-20 dingers would be nice). ABW needs to fix the holes in his swing.

[Seth Stohs]

Fernandez, even though played both C/OF in school he has played almost exclusively at C (and a bit at first base) and he has been a quality receiver as well.  I think that he will be the real thing and have him ranked 19th overall in my Twins prospects' list and second-best C prospect after Mitch Garver.  Definitely the sleeper in this group (Larson potentially also)

 

 

I dont know why I typed "outfielder" for Fernandez. I recall telling myself as I was typing NOT to type outfielder, but I still did. Each year at Instructs, he plays in the OF and there is talk about him playing out there, but he really hasn't yet. I think when Jeremy and I talked about ranking the catching prospects in the organization, I had Fernandez fourth (behind Turner, Garver and Navarreto, but I like Fernandez a lot. He may have been in the mid-30s for me.). 

[nater79a]

Wonder if the number of possible 40-man protectibles from this '12 class (as well as other classes) will affect whether Berrios or Buxton is promoted to the big club this year. Neither Buck or J.O. needs to be added till 2016 but would take an additional two spots if promoted in, lets say, September.  I would hope the Twins would not let that affect their thinking, but you never know.

 

Also, can anybody remember in the last 10 years or so the most players the Twins added to their 40-man roster between the September 1st expanded rosters date and the end of November? This year would have to be close to the top, I would think.

[Seth Stohs]

One comment: 2-3 seasons is not that much post-mortem to evaluate a draft.  Give it a good 10 seasons    We should really be talking about the 2005 draft right now instead, when you know how things turned out (and that was not a bad draft, just the Twins traded or did not sign the best players they drafted...)

 

I think I wrote that somewhere in the article. I would say anyone at this stage of their career, just 2 1/2 years in, should get an Incomplete grade...  That said, I like the potential of this group. I've done LOOK BACK articles at the drafts. It's fun to do. 

[Seth Stohs]

Its a big season for a lot of these guys. There is a lot of bullpen arms in this system so guys like Melotakis, Bard & Chargois are about to get passed by.

 

Rogers & Duffy shot at a back of the rotation starting spot is blocked by Meyer May Berrios Gibson and Nolasco.

 

Barring some unforseen breakout, I just cant see how any of these guys -except Buxton- will get a real chance in 2015.

 

I would say it would be rare for a team to have more than 1-2 players from their 2012 draft that will help them in 2015. This article isn't so much about 2015, but for years beyond. 

 

The college guys from the 2012 draft don't have to be added to the 40 man roster until after this year and can't become minor league free agents for like 4 more years. 

 

The high school guys drafted in 2012 don't have to be added until after next year. 

[Seth Stohs]

Wonder if the number of possible 40-man protectibles from this '12 class (as well as other classes) will affect whether Berrios or Buxton is promoted to the big club this year. Neither Buck or J.O. needs to be added till 2016 but would take an additional two spots if promoted in, lets say, September.  I would hope the Twins would not let that affect their thinking, but you never know.

 

Also, can anybody remember in the last 10 years or so the most players the Twins added to their 40-man roster between the September 1st expanded rosters date and the end of November? This year would have to be close to the top, I would think.

 

A couple of years ago they added 8 players after the season, but I'd have to check who was added in September. Maybe a couple that were added for September came off. Not sure.

 

Buxton and Berrios, if they're deemed ready and needed before August will come up. They won't hesitate at that point. However, there's no reason (other than stuff like PR) to call them up in September. Those 10-14 games they may play (2-4 games for a pitcher) aren't worth it in the long run over potentially protecting someone else in the offseason. (In my opinion)

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Seth, they either come up to help before September, or they are in the minors all year. I don't see either getting the cameo treatment this year. 

[jimmer]

'The MLB draft is incredibly difficult to judge or even analyze for more than a decade for various reasons.Top prospects don’t always make it big and there are hidden gems found in late rounds. However, when you have the opportunity to draft second overall in the draft, it is important to get it right.'

 

A somewhat good example of this is that for all the hoopla about having the #1 pick, when Ken Griffey Jr is voted into the HOF next year, he will be the first #1 overall pick to ever make it into the HOF.

Edited January 15, 2015 by jimmer

[Rosterman]

This is where you start thinking of any of these guys being tradebait for a piece to improve your puzzle. At some point, you get too many prospects coming up at the same time in the pipeline and a clog happens. You have to CAREFULLY judge who will be here in 2016 or 2017 and go from there. Houston may be facing a similar problem. Or you start flipping pitching prospects for more batting prospects. Either way, looks like the bullpen ahs strength, especially when you put names like Burdi, Reed, Cederoth and others from 2013 and even 2014 into the same playing field as 2012 guys.

[Dantes929]

Wow Jimmer,  that was an eye opener.    Draft since 1965 and the only other potential #1's are Chipper Jones, ARod and Mauer.   Just as amazing is the lack of #'s 2-5.though I admit I may have missed one or two.

 2nd pick of Reggie Jackson and possibly "Verlander

3rd pick ironically of Molitor and Yount

4th pick of Windfield and Larkin

5th pick none and really it was amazing flipping through the lists just how few guys I had even heard of. 

[jimmer]

Wow Jimmer,  that was an eye opener.    Draft since 1965 and the only other potential #1's are Chipper Jones, ARod and Mauer.   Just as amazing is the lack of #'s 2-5.though I admit I may have missed one or two.

 2nd pick of Reggie Jackson and possibly "Verlander

3rd pick ironically of Molitor and Yount

4th pick of Windfield and Larkin

5th pick none and really it was amazing flipping through the lists just how few guys I had even heard of. 

Nice research!  Chipper will get in, Arod likely won't, and Mauer probably should just based on what he's done so far.  

 

In the case of Mauer, there were some years that are much better than people think, but because people focus on counting stats too much they under-rate those years.  On top of that, between what the perception of what 1Bs need to do and, well, injuries, it could be an issue.  Not so long ago, I thought he'd be a first ballot HOFer for sure, now he may end up a borderline guy if that. Before his switch to 1B, I'd hear people state that even with his career BA and OBP, if  he didn't reach 3000 hits he wouldn't  be in.  My response at the times of hearing those, no catcher in MLB history has even reached 2700 and only seven have reach 2000.

Edited January 15, 2015 by jimmer

[Dantes929]

Another batting title wouldn't surprise me and would help his cause immensely.  

[ken]

You have to be careful comparing Mauer to other all-time catchers, he probably going to play other position more than catcher.  Here's a listing of the 7 catchers with 2,000 hits and games played as catcher:

 

Ivan Rodriguez                       2,427

Ted Simmons                         1,771

Carlton Fisk                            2,226

Yori Berra                               1,669

Mike Piazza                            1,630

Gary Carter                             1,954

Johnny Bench                         1,742

Jason Kendall                          2,025

Joe Mauer                                   920

 

Mauer is closer to Victor Martinez in the catcher category,

[Dantes929]

I thought Oliva's strongest case was the three batting titles.    As far as I can tell Madlock and Walker are the only guys that have that many and are not in.   In my opinion they should be.   Three titles is just impressive and in Oliva's case he was 2nd once and 3rd three times.

[Dantes929]

Mauer's strongest case is that he is the only catcher in AL history to win a batting title and he did it three times to go along with 3 gold gloves.   If he did it in his first three seasons and then caught 1500 more games without winning a title or if he did it in his first three seasons and then never caught again really shouldn't matter that much..   Oh yeah, and Mauer finished 2nd once and third twice in BA.

[lightfoot789]

2012 could be one of the best drafts ever for the Twins.  They have soooo many reliever types that can be a major part of the ball club for years.  They have a potential #1 in Berrios and a potential HOF skilled player in Buxton.  Time will tell

[SarasotaBill]

Moneyball was about finding under value assets and maximizing them.

 

I believe going after hard throwing relievers in 2012 and 2014 was good value.

 

KC proved a dominant bullpen can have a bigger impact than a good starter in a series.

 

I really like the philosophy of Deron Johnson to draft more on upside and potential.