Article: Sorting Through the 2015 HOF Ballot

[Cody Christie]

This year was going to be tough.

 

The writers of the BBWAA have to narrow a stacked ballot down to the ten most worthy names. There are going to be some worthy candidates who aren't elected and some might even fall off the ballot. That's what happens when writers are limited in how many names they can have on the ballot.I am a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance and a different approach was taken this year to avoid the roster crunch. Members were asked to make a simple "Yes" or "No" vote in relation to every man on the ballot. The results for my ballot were 13 names but I will pick out the top 10 names I would have put on my ballot had I been limited to that number.

 

My official ballot (in alphabetical order)

• Jeff Bagwell
• Craig Biggio
• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Randy Johnson
• Edgar Martinez
• Pedro Martinez
• Mike Piazza
• Tim Raines
• John Smoltz

It seems likely that a minimum of three players will be elected when the official results are announced on Tuesday afternoon. (Update: they've been announced.) Johnson and (Pedro) Martinez are first -time nominees and should both be locks as inductees. Biggio came painfully close last year and he should be able to pick up the necessary votes to be enshrined this year. Bagwell could get closer and Raines should get a bump but I don't know if either will have enough support.

 

As I've said in previous years, it is clear that Bonds and Clemens were on their way to Hall-of- Fame careers before their steroid use. Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time and he deserves to be in. Smoltz was a great starting pitcher and a great closer. (Edgar) Martinez was one of the best hitters of his era and a trailblazer at the designated hitter position.

 

My other "Yes" Votes

• Mike Mussina
• Curt Schilling
• Alan Trammell

Mussina won more games during his playing career than any pitcher besides Greg Maddux, an inductee last year. Mussina hasn't had a ton of support but his candidacy will start to gather steam in the years to come.

 

Schilling is one of the best postseason starting pitchers of all-time and he is the all-time leader in strike/walk ratio. I didn't have enough spots on my ballot this year but I suspect Schilling will be elected in the next handful of years.

 

Trammell is in his final year on the ballot and I became more convinced of his place in history over the last year. He won't get elected this year but somewhere down the line he could be added through the Veteran's Committee.

 

Now it's your turn. Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Who would be on your ballot? Should the writers be able to vote for more than ten players?

 

For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

 

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[Oldgoat_MN]

Can't see it for Mussina. He won 270 games playing for 8 years for a team that won very consistently. 

 

If Bert took 15 years to get to the Hall after the trashy teams he spent much of his time pitching for then Mussina will only get in as a Yankee star, not a real career All-Star.

[TwinsMasochist]

Piazza will be in next year.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Don't think Mussina deserves it. Morris was probably better. More importantly Jim Kaat won more games than Mussina playing for worse teams and is arguably the best fielding pitcher of all time and didn't even get in this year through the veterans committee.

[Beemo]

I'd like to hear a good argument for Jack Morris being a better pitcher than Mike Mussina.

[Champuckett]

Wow, lot of dislike for Mussina.  When I remember him, I think of him leading a struggling 90's Orioles club, not a 2000's Yankees club.  He never was flashy and never got much publicity for his pitiching abilities, but he was extremely consistent during most of his career.  I think he does deserve to get into the Hall eventually one day, ala a Bert Blyleven type journey.  But yes, he is not a first tier HoF pitcher like the recent Maddux, Martinez, or Johnson.

 

The majority of his career was played in Baltimore, for mostly mediocre to bad teams.  Besides the standout 1997 season for the Orioles they never had any great seasons during the 90's. Mussina managed to get at least 18 wins 4 times during that span.  A top 5 Cy Young candidate 6 times, 4 of those again, with the struggling Orioles.

 

He finished his career sort of early and only acquired 270 wins.  That hurts him a lot.  I wouldn't be surprised if he never gets in, but in years where dominant potential HoF pitchers are lacking, he may pick up some steam.

[ashbury]

 I wouldn't be surprised if he never gets in, but in years where dominant potential HoF pitchers are lacking, he may pick up some steam.

More and more, I think the NFL has one part of it right.  Every year they elect 6 or 7 guys to their Hall.  That tends to make it The Hall Of Very Good^TM, but there is some value in that.  Let the fans see their favorite players honored.  Baseball diminishes its product by in effect arguing whether some of its best players are  even "good enough". Football hypes their product, 13 months a year, and it works.

 

What the baseball Hall would then need to do, on top of that, would be to have some distinguished panel (sorry, BBWAA, maybe the living HoFers themselves) vote 1 or maybe 2 players each year into an Inner Circle of the HoF; whoever gets the most votes is in (no years with nobody), second highest vote getter is in if it's above some threshold, say, for additional suspense.  Probably that would be a little less restrictive Inner Circle than the Ruth/Cobb/Musial version we usually talk about, but would address the thirst for some kind of additional honor, currently satisfied approximately by notions of "first ballot" and "near-unanimous" and so forth.

[jimmer]

I'd like to hear a good argument for Jack Morris being a better pitcher than Mike Mussina.

There isn't one.

[jimmer]

Schilling ERA+ 127, his WAR 83.2

Mussina's ERA+ 123 (exclusively in the AL...and not only that, the AL East), his WAR 82.5

Smoltz ERA+ 125, his WAR 78.7

Glavine's ERA+ 118, his WAR 64.3

 

Morris ERA+ 105, his WAR 52.5

[Rosterman]

Yeah, you can argue Mussina 270 wins. Hey, how many wins did Pedro have? What is the criteria. Dominance (ala Morris). Longevity (ala Kaat). Have a medical procedure named after you (John). You can argue that Mussina (and Schilling) are on the edge, maybe a "Veterans Committee: inductee, but that group hasn't done too well in their opportunity to reward players overlooked by the writers. We don't want it to be a Hall of Fame of the Very Good, although there are a fair share of those guys in the Hall already, but it should recognize a few more players with distinct accomplishments (why isn't Oliva in the Hall, please).

[jimmer]

Yeah, you can argue Mussina 270 wins. Hey, how many wins did Pedro have? What is the criteria. Dominance (ala Morris). Longevity (ala Kaat). Have a medical procedure named after you (John). You can argue that Mussina (and Schilling) are on the edge, maybe a "Veterans Committee: inductee, but that group hasn't done too well in their opportunity to reward players overlooked by the writers. We don't want it to be a Hall of Fame of the Very Good, although there are a fair share of those guys in the Hall already, but it should recognize a few more players with distinct accomplishments (why isn't Oliva in the Hall, please).

I agree with most of that.  Not the dominance part in regards to Morris, or Oliva being deserving, but overall I agree we want it to be the Hall of Fame.  Problem is, everyone has their view on where the line of very good and great meet.  Mussina, IMO, belongs.  I don't even care about the Wins/Loss stat for pitcher, so, for me, it has nothing at all to do with that.

[Willihammer]

In my mind Mussina was kinda the Halladay before Halladay. Funky straight arm delivery. Threw about 12 different flavors of junk, nothing straight. If he was a lefty they would have called it "cunning and guile." One of these guys who you are reading the paper one day and looking at the AL pitching leaders and there's Mussina among the top in ERA and IP and then you realize you've seen his name there every year for the past 10 years. A no doubt HoFer in my mind.

[TheLeviathan]

The numbers are better for Mussina than my perception of him.  I always thought of him in the "very good" but not "elite" category.  David Cone is a guy that comes to mind as a similar level of pitcher to me.

[nicksaviking]

The numbers are better for Mussina than my perception of him.  

 

That's funny, because if one only watched him when he pitched against the Twins, it would be the other way around.

[jimmer]

In my mind Mussina was kinda the Halladay before Halladay. Funky straight arm delivery. Threw about 12 different flavors of junk, nothing straight. If he was a lefty they would have called it "cunning and guile." One of these guys who you are reading the paper one day and looking at the AL pitching leaders and there's Mussina among the top in ERA and IP and then you realize you've seen his name there every year for the past 10 years. A no doubt HoFer in my mind.

yeah, here’s a guy who finished in the top 10 in ERA+ 11 times in a 17 year span ’92-’08. 7 of those 11 times, he was top 5.  All this while pitching in the AL East against the best offenses in the game.

[mikelink45]

I have to join the others who were not enamored by Mussina.  I cannot put him above Kaat or Tommy John and I would not vote for them.  I like the controversy and continual tear letting that keeping Rose, Jackson, Bonds, and Clemens out causes and their exclusion is okay.  

 

Piazza would have joined the four that were elected.  That would have been my ballot.  Good, even a short period of great is not what I want in the hall, but then I would vacuum up a few plaques that are already there.

 

A player like Griffey - next year is easy and that is what I want in the hall.  As much as Raines is a sabermetric darling, he was just an all star in his day and not considered an all time great.

[jimmer]

I have to join the others who were not enamored by Mussina.  I cannot put him above Kaat or Tommy John and I would not vote for them.  I like the controversy and continual tear letting that keeping Rose, Jackson, Bonds, and Clemens out causes and their exclusion is okay.  

 

Piazza would have joined the four that were elected.  That would have been my ballot.  Good, even a short period of great is not what I want in the hall, but then I would vacuum up a few plaques that are already there.

 

A player like Griffey - next year is easy and that is what I want in the hall.  As much as Raines is a sabermetric darling, he was just an all star in his day and not considered an all time great.

Well, he was better than Tommy John and Kaat. Those two are comparable to each other, with John beinga little  better and Mussina being quite a bit better than both. 

 

Problem is when you let lesser pitchers in, some even first ballot, it makes it harder to say a guy like Mussina shouldn't be in. That's what has happened.  Mussina's biggest problem is that he was never flashy, he just went about doing his job professionally and didn't push for the spotlight, but he was as good as Smoltz if not better, better than Glavine and better than many others that are in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As much as Raines is a sabermetric darling, he was just an all star in his day and not considered an all time great.

So why don't we simply elect players to the HOF while they are active?  I think the final career body of work is meant to be an important factor.  Other factors disagreeing with this criteria being too important: the 5 year waiting period, up to 10 years of ballot eligibility (formerly 15), and the very-low 5% bar for continued eligibility.

 

And face it: many players in the HOF, including several elected recently, were not considered all-time greats while active (i.e. Blyleven).  Or may have been considered such only briefly/erroneously (Rice, Sutter).

[jimmer]

So why don't we simply elect players to the HOF while they are active?  I think the final career body of work is meant to be an important factor.  Other factors disagreeing with this criteria being too important: the 5 year waiting period, up to 10 years of ballot eligibility (formerly 15), and the very-low 5% bar for continued eligibility.

 

And face it: many players in the HOF, including several elected recently, were not considered all-time greats while active (i.e. Blyleven).  Or may have been considered such only briefly/erroneously (Rice, Sutter).

People like to compare Raines to Rickey, but there's another person who might be a better fit for comparison.

 

Raines finished his career with a .385 OBP, a .425 SLG and a 123 OPS+ in 10,359 PA

Gwynn finished his career with a .388 OBP, a 459 SLG and a 132 OPS+ in 10,232 PA

Raines scored 1,571 runs and drove in 980

Gwynn scored 1,383 runs and drove in 1,138

Raines stole 808 bases and was caught 146 times

Gwynn stole 319 bases and was caught 125 times

B-ref WAR has Raines at 66.2, good for 97th all-time. It has Gwynn at 65.3 wins, 102nd place all-time.

 

the one real difference between him and Raines was hits. Raines had 2,605 hits and Gwynn had 3,141. That’s a difference of 536. However, Raines had 1,330 walks to Gwynn’s 790, a difference of 540.

Edited January 9, 2015 by jimmer