Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2015 Version 1.0

[Seth Stohs]

The calendar has turned to 2015. The Winter Meetings and Rule 5 draft are complete. Most of the free agents have signed with new teams. There are still a few free agents out there and some may be more willing to sign one-year or minor league contracts. Spring training is about six weeks away, and yet, it seems like a good time to post the first Twins Daily Roster Projection of the year.When a player becomes a “given” for the roster (in my opinion), I will highlight the player’s name in red. Trades and signings can happen at any time between now and spring training and then opening day, but that just means that “givens” change. We will also be able to learn, over time, what it is that Paul Molitor will look for from his roster. Feel free to discuss below.

 

 

Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto

 

Kurt Suzuki came to the Twins a year ago on a one-year contract. He became an All- Star and received a two-year contract extension. He’s the starter. Eric Fryer was removed from the 40-man roster recently which leaves Josmil Pinto as the only other catcher on the roster. He (Fryer) certainly could be given another shot as the backup catcher. Fryer accepted his outright assignment and remains with the Twins. He could be called up at any time. It’s also one area where the Twins could be looking for another veteran. Fryer and Dan Rohlfing, along with Chris Herrmann, will likely all get time behind the plate in Rochester, ready for a promotion at any time.

 

Infielders (7): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez,

 

It appears that most of these positions are already set. We know that Joe Mauer will man first base. Brian Dozier will be the second baseman, and Trevor Plouffe will be at the hot corner. Despite a strong showing as the Twins shortstop in 2014, all indications are that Eduardo Escobar will return to a utility role. Danny Santana is expected to be the everyday shortstop in 2015. Santana had a strong showing in his rookie season, and so did Kennys Vargas who should be the primary designated hitter for the Twins.

 

Eduardo Nunez has the lead at this point for the 25^th man role, but I’m not sure that he can be called a given at this point. As the season progresses and/or injuries occur, we are likely to see Miguel Sano at some point. Jorge Polanco and James Beresford could also get time with the Twins.

 

Outfielders (4): Oswaldo Arcia, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, Aaron Hicks

 

Torii Hunter will be the right fielder. Oswaldo Arcia, when healthy, will be out in left field. Center field remains a question mark. As I see it, there are two options. Number 1, if Aaron Hicks is deemed ready for opening day again, he’ll be the starter and Jordan Schafer will be the fourth outfielder. If the organization prefers Hicks gets more time in Rochester, my assumption is that Schafer and veteran Shane Robinson would platoon. Whoever plays center field will have to cover a lot a ground. The other thing about the center fielders, they will know that Byron Buxton is still the future. We should also see Eddie Rosario at some point in the season, though opening day is very unlikely. One reason that Eduardo Nunez makes some sense as the 25^th man is that he can play in the infield and the outfield.

 

Starting Pitchers (5): Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone

 

Phil Hughes was one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2014. Ricky Nolasco was one of the worst starting pitchers in 2014. One of the keys to the season will be Nolasco returning to the form he showed before last season. Adding Ervin Santana gives the Twins a veteran starter who has been good for a long time. Kyle Gibson got through his first full season in the big leagues last year and will look to improve upon it.

 

So, the big question at spring training will again be about the fifth starter. Last year, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley were all out of options and yet it was Kyle Gibson who won the job. Deduno was sent to the bullpen while Diamond and Worley cleared waivers, they weren’t long for the Twins organization.

 

This year, the competitors for that fifth starter job are numerous. Tommy Milone had a lot of success in Oakland, but he was hurt in his time with the Twins last year after being acquired for Sam Fuld. Mike Pelfrey was hurt again in 2014 and could have an outside shot at the fifth starter job. Trevor May has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues and made ten big league starts. After a shaky start, he pitched much better. Alex Meyer should also be given a legitimate shot at the spot as well. At this time, I would put Milone as a slight favorite for the role over May, though May should get an opportunity early in the season.

 

Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Tim Stauffer, Caleb Thielbar, Mike Pelfrey, JR Graham.

 

In my opinion, the first five spots are pretty well set, pending injury or trade. Glen Perkins is the closer. Casey Fien will again set him up. Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar will be left-handed relievers. Tim Stauffer comes over from the Padres. It will be interesting to see if he can replace Jared Burton as a 7^th inning guy or if he’ll replace Anthony Swarzak as a long reliever.

 

It’s time to give Michael Tonkin an opportunity to show what he can do in higher-leverage situations. However, as long as JR Graham is in the organization, he has the inside track on a bullpen spot. Due to Pelfrey’s contract, he also will likely be the favorite to make the opening day roster in the bullpen. If his velocity is back, it really is a role that he could thrive in. If he doesn’t make the roster, the Twins would likely just part ways and eat the remainder of the contract. Tonkin is ready, but Ryan Pressly also deserves an opportunity in spring to make the roster. Ryan O’Rourke (non-roster) is very intriguing as a LOOGY, though Aaron Thompson does remain on the 40-man roster at this point so he’s in the picture as well.

 

Nick Burdi, Zack Jones and Jake Reed could all be up by season’s end, though they will not be at big league camp, so we’ll have to wait a little longer.

 

 

What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like?

 

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[KGB]

The roster is what I would expect, but I'm disappointed that they don't have roster spaces for Meyers and May.  That's why I don't understand why they signed Stauffer and gave arbitriation to Duensing, when you have a lot of options.

 

But I guess when you sign 30 year old pitchers to long term contract, you open up options due to injuries.  Just doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to me.

[071063]

I think the Twins are going to make the pitchers compete for their jobs this year.  Obviously, some of the big contract starters are set in stone.  But i think May, Meyer, Stauffer, Theilbar, Tonkin, Pelfrey, Graham, Duensing, Oliverous, et all are going to have to earn their roster spot in spring training and then pitch well to keep it after that.  That is depth and that is good.

[Seth Stohs]

Nothing wrong with creating competition. And of course, there are always injuries that pop up in spring training and throughout the season. 

[KGB]

But is it really going to be a fair competition?  You have players with guaranteed contract versus rookies with minor league options.  The rookies most likely are going to be inconsistent like Gibson was last year, so it's easy to keep the veteran with the guaranteed contract and put Mays and Meyer's back to AAA. 

 

At some point you have to give them a fair run in a major league rotation if you are ever going to find out what kind of players you have.  It seems the front office has very little confidence in these players.

[zenser]

I agree with your predictions. The only difference I would have would be May in bullpen for Graham. I can see working out a trade to keep him though.

[blindeke]

Where are the young arms? Some of May's starts were quite good, weren't they? Hopefully Nunez isn't long for this team.

[tharasix]

I would definitely agree with this prediction under the previous staff.  My totally unfounded hope with Molitor is that he'll realize the truth in your statement of "nothing left to prove in AAA" and have May and Meyer on the 25 man.  Stuffing them in AAA due to contractual convenience only delays our return to relevance.  Our rotation should be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Meyer, as far as I'm concerned.  Put Nabisco and Milone in the bullpen or AAA.  Dump Pelf.  If we have young players that are ready to take their lumps in the majors, they should not be blocked by less talented veterans that aren't going to be part of the next division winner.  This team needs to fully commit to the rebuild and quit crawling toward mediocrity. 

[Dantes929]

There is nothing easy about this rotation business.   Twins probably wanted to go with young guys but are afraid of failure and having plan B of the Walters DeVries of the world.   No team commits 10's of millions as a plan B backup and there are no alternatives that would satisfy most fans so you get the cart leading the horse.    If they are both healthy and aside from the contracts  I see no rational argument for placing Nolasco above Milone so my rotation would be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and May with Meyer, Nolasco and Pelfrey in the pen and in that order.    Even with Seth's projected rotation it is not too hard to compare it favorably to the 2010 division champs rotation.   Hughes beats Liriano, Pavano probably edges out Santana.  Gibson and Baker are a push and Meyer, May, Milone, Nolasco should be able to outperform Blackburn and Slowey.  Not sexy but solid which would be a welcome result after the last several years.

[Seth Stohs]

Ricky Nolasco not only has the contract, but he has track record... Before last year, he posted 6 straight year's with a FIP under 3.90. Even with his 5.38 ERA last year, his FIP was just 4.30, not good, but not as bad as we'd think. Add in the fact that he was hurt... He absolutely should and will be in the rotation on Opening Day, unless there is an injury.

 

I want to see May in the rotation, and I think Meyer should be up too, but that's just my opinion. We think that they're better than the alternatives, but we don't know. And, they will be needed throughout the season. Hopefully when they get their opportunities, they take full advantage. 

[brvama]

Agree mostly with your roster, Seth.  Might quibble a bit with Milone, however, he's likely to be the favorite UNTIL someone takes the job away from him.  Maybe May or Meyer pulls a Gibson 2014 ST.  Regardless, those two will be pitching for the Twins this year barring a trade or injury.

 

Now the idea of throwing Nolasco aside, or even in the pen, at the start of the season to me seems shortsighted.  As you said Seth, he has a track record and TR had enough confidence in him to offer that 4-year contract.  His poor performance was the result of mostly injury, and maybe a bit to league adjustment.  Still, he will and should be a given in 2015 to start in the rotation.  If a pitcher that you signed gets hurt out of the gate, you at least see what he has after recovery before you dismiss him, especially with Nolasco's experience and history. 

[dxpavelka]

I would definitely agree with this prediction under the previous staff.  My totally unfounded hope with Molitor is that he'll realize the truth in your statement of "nothing left to prove in AAA" and have May and Meyer on the 25 man.  Stuffing them in AAA due to contractual convenience only delays our return to relevance.  Our rotation should be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Meyer, as far as I'm concerned.  Put Nabisco and Milone in the bullpen or AAA.  Dump Pelf.  If we have young players that are ready to take their lumps in the majors, they should not be blocked by less talented veterans that aren't going to be part of the next division winner.  This team needs to fully commit to the rebuild and quit crawling toward mediocrity. 

The way for young players to avoid being "blocked by less talented veterans" is for the to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves and win jobs like Gibson did in spring training last year and Santana & Vargas did during  the season.  Any young player that needs to be "given" a shot rather than forcing the issue and "taking" his shot probably isn't going to be going to part of the next division winner either.

[Wookiee of the Year]

Can I ask: Who's freshly out of options this year?

 

Milone? Pressly? Nunez?

[Seth Stohs]

Can I ask: Who's freshly out of options this year?

 

Milone? Pressly? Nunez?

 

You can check Jeremy's Org Chart to verify, but I believe Milone has one more option. Pressly has two option years. I believe Nunez is out of options.

[KGB]

The way for young players to avoid being "blocked by less talented veterans" is for the to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves and win jobs like Gibson did in spring training last year and Santana & Vargas did during  the season.  Any young player that needs to be "given" a shot rather than forcing the issue and "taking" his shot probably isn't going to be going to part of the next division winner either.

 

 

Gibson would not have made the roster out of spring training if the Twins had been able to sign Santana or Garza like they wanted last year.  Frank Viola needed a couple years and 50 starts with an ERA around 5.00 before he turned the corner and was Cy Young and World Series MVP, so I think giving him a shot worked out. 

 

When you are not a contender, I think it's better to go young than lose with old players.  Danny Santana didn't force his way in to the majors, he was given a shot only because they screwed up the CF position so badly.  Once there, he made the most of it but if Hicks had played at any kind of respectable level, we never would have seen Santana up in the majors.

[Linus]

I think your projection is spot on.  I hope that Meyer wins the 5th spot as his ability to fulfill his ace potential is very important for the Twin's future.  I have no problem with the "logjam" of pitchers, young and old.  When your rotation is as bad as ours has been the last several years you want plenty of competition so nobody is given a spot.

 

It will work itself out as Milone has an option, Pelfrey can be released if need be and I think people are making a big leap of faith with May.  He may make it, but there is an equal chance that he goes back to AAA one more time.

[Dr. Evil]

I guess I would like to see Hicks start off in the minors with Schafer and Robinson platooning in center field.

 

I think they should start Pelfrey on a conversion to relief pitcher but do so with him in AAA until he appears serviceable.

 

Milone and Nolasco as the 4th and 5th starters with May and Meyer at the ready in AAA. It's a long season and there is nothing wrong with them spending the first month or two trying to get on a roll while we see if Nolasco and/or Milone can return to form. Both had been solid starters fairly recently.

 

I prefer to keep May/Meyer in a starters role. Sometimes relievers become good starters. That is true. But, IMHO the best path for these 2 is not going from starter to reliever and back to starter. To me that is just putting extra hurdles in front of them. Also, not a big believer in tossing a starter in the pen and saying go be a reliever just because he is your next best option at starter.

 

If we are fortunate enough to have May/Meyer both work out their final issues this year and be kicking the door down to the major leagues while at the same time Nolasco/Milone both return to form, albeit unlikely, it would be a great problem to have.

[dxpavelka]

Gibson would not have made the roster out of spring training if the Twins had been able to sign Santana or Garza like they wanted last year.  Frank Viola needed a couple years and 50 starts with an ERA around 5.00 before he turned the corner and was Cy Young and World Series MVP, so I think giving him a shot worked out. 

 

When you are not a contender, I think it's better to go young than lose with old players.  Danny Santana didn't force his way in to the majors, he was given a shot only because they screwed up the CF position so badly.  Once there, he made the most of it but if Hicks had played at any kind of respectable level, we never would have seen Santana up in the majors.

The point is that all those guys, at one point or another, and to varying degrees had opportunities presented to them and took those opportunities and ran with them.  If Santana had performed in a Hicks esque manner he would have been back in Rochester in short order.  Same for Vargys.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, it's not how I would rebuild a team, but I can't argue with any of it.

 

Having May, Meyer, and a bunch of RP sitting in AA and AAA? Waste of "healthy" arms. We are now 3 years into not having a CF, three years.

[Lonestar]

I agree with your list as of now, Seth.  It will be interesting to see how it changes.

 

I wouldn't let Pelfrey have a rotation spot in April regardless of salary.  Let him have Swarzak's old job the bullpen -- if he can handle it.  Maybe he works his way into high leverage relief.  Maybe he washes out.

 

Milone has an option (and he's tradeable if healthy).  I can see May or Meyer beating him out of a spot in the rotation.  I would go with May as of now.

 

I like Hicks.  That is, I think he will qualify for arbitration (maybe even free agency) someday.  I just don't know if it is with the Twins.  Having said that, I would have his ticket punched for Rochester already.  And I don't think a Schafer/Robinson platoon will work.

 

I think that Sano, Rosario, Polanco, and Kepler are not yet ready for the Show.  That means the only position player on the 40-man roster in Rochester will be Chris Herrmann.  And he's on the bubble.

 

As a Rule 5 draftee, JR Graham is by definition on the bubble.  Aaron Thompson is on the bubble, too, and Caleb Thielbar should be.  So there's room to maneuver.

 

Rochester should have a pretty good rotation and bullpen.

[Highabove]

Why would JR Graham have a leg up on a pitcher such as Lester Oliveros?

Oliveros has far superior numbers. So what if the Twins lose Graham. 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Highabove

[DocBauer]

Can't argue, generally agree. And, of course, we're talking opening day, not where we are a month or even two in.

Combination of thoughts, hopes and speculation:

1) If Milone has the early edge for the 5th spot, I think it's by a hair. No offense to him, but he's not the future and he's nothing special. Molitor won't keep him in the rotation just because he's LH.

 

2) I don't believe the Twins would hesitate to just let Pelfrey go, nice guy and contract or not.

 

3) Graham was a smart pickup/flyer. But with the number of RP available and on the way up...probably up quickly...Graham has to really show something, not just be a stash with potential. Of course, working out a trade to keep him is also possible.

 

4) If Milone is not in the rotation, does he join Duensing and Thielbar in the bullpen? Or do we see a trade? I'm still wondering if Milone or Duensing isn't moved as part of a trade for...........

 

5) I still hope/believe the Twins make a move for help in CF. How can you not?

 

6) Assuming May or Meyer is in the rotation, I've come around on the idea of having the other in the pen until another opportunity arises. I don't know that either has anything to prove in AAA or anything to work on that can't be worked on at the ML level at this point. Less room for Pelfrey, or Milone and possibly Stauffer. If you ask me, not to be a downer, but I think Stauffer has as much to prove as anyone.

[jorgenswest]

Starting with the pen.

 

The only guy I would have in red is Perkins.

 

Casey Fien's strike out rate was down all last year. The combination of extreme fly ball and a strike out rate that dropped from 29.9% to 19.6%. It is a myth that he fell apart at the end. The strike out rate was around 20% all year and he was a disaster waiting to happen. The disaster struck in the second half. Given his fly ball rate, he needs to move his strike out rate back towards 30% to be in the pen of a winning team. If he doesn't show it is the spring, I would option him out and have him show it in AAA.

 

There were 58 left handed non closer relievers in the major leagues last year (30+ appearances). Brian Duensing was 51st in strike out rate, 50th in FIP and 39th in OPS+ against. He isn't likely to be better next year.

 

Tim Stauffer's performance outside of Petco Park has been poor. He needs to show he can pitch well outside of Petco or he needs to be released.

 

Caleb Thielbar's rankings compared to the 58 lefties above were 47, 30 and 43. He can still be optioned and may need to show it in AAA.

 

If the Twins are going to return to a winning team, they need to have players who rank in the middle or better. If they are below the middle, they need to have the upside of youth. These four need to show they are better than the average guy in their role or they need to be optioned or released.

 

All of these guys have earned the right to fight for a job in the bullpen this spring. None of them should be locks to make it. The Twins need to take the best 12 north.

Edited January 7, 2015 by jorgenswest

[Mike Sixel]

Starting with the pen.

 

The only guy I would have in red is Perkins.

 

Casey Fien's strike out rate was down all last year. The combination of extreme fly ball and a strike out rate that dropped from 29.9% to 19.6%. It is a myth that he fell apart at the end. The strike out rate was around 20% all year and he was a disaster waiting to happen. The disaster struck in the second half. Given his fly ball rate, he needs to move his strike out rate back towards 30% to be in the pen of a winning team. If he doesn't show it is the spring, I would option him out and have him show it in AAA.

 

There were 58 left handed non closer relievers in the major leagues last year (30+ appearances). Brian Duensing was 51st in strike out rate, 50th in FIP and 39th in OPS+ against. He isn't likely to be better next year.

 

Tim Stauffer's performance outside of Petco Park has been poor. He needs to show he can pitch well outside of Petco or he needs to be released.

 

Caleb Thielbar's rankings compared to the 58 lefties above were 47, 30 and 43. He can still be optioned and may need to show it in AAA.

 

If the Twins are going to return to a winning team, they need to have players who rank in the middle or better. If they are below the middle, they need to have the upside of youth. These four need to show they are better than the average guy in their role or they need to be optioned or released.

 

All of these guys have earned the right to fight for a job in the bullpen this spring. None of them should be locks to make it. The Twins need to take the best 12 north.

 

I'd love this post if I could.....

[Lonestar]

Jorgy, I agree with you on Duensing and Thielbar.

 

Stauffer's xFIP- (which is adjusted for park and league) was 88 in 2014 and 85 in 2013 where 100 is average and lower is better.  I like the signing.

 

For perspective, Perkins xFIP- was 82 in 2014 and 66 in 2013.

Fien's as 102 and 68.

Thielbar's was 114 and 104.

Duensing's was 118 and 94.

 

Perkins has only had a K% above 28% once, in 2013.

[jorgenswest]

Jorgy, I agree with you on Duensing and Thielbar.

 

Stauffer's xFIP- (which is adjusted for park and league) was 88 in 2014 and 85 in 2013 where 100 is average and lower is better.  I like the signing.

 

For perspective, Perkins xFIP- was 82 in 2014 and 66 in 2013.

Fien's as 102 and 68.

Thielbar's was 114 and 104.

Duensing's was 118 and 94.

 

Perkins has only had a K% above 28% once, in 2013.

On Stauffer's xFIP...

 

Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco.

 

Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

[Willihammer]

I understand the need for depth in the bullpen - there's no quicker way to start a dumpster fire with fans than for the bullpen to blow winnable games. But I keep thinking back to the draft and pick after pick being high velocity college relievers. Hope those guys have some bullets left if/when they ever make it to the Twins. The shelf life seems to be short with those guys pretty often.

[Lonestar]

On Stauffer's xFIP...

 

Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco.

 

Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

xFIP- is adjusted for park. xFIP is not.  It's not surprising he would have a differential.  It was only 0.39 in 2014.  Of course we are talking Small Sample Size of only 30-34 innings pitched.

 

I don't think it's fair to include his xFIP as a starting pitcher anymore than it is to include Perkins'.

[jorgenswest]

xFIP- is adjusted for park. xFIP is not.  It's not surprising he would have a differential.  It was only 0.39 in 2014.  Of course we are talking Small Sample Size of only 30-34 innings pitched.

 

I don't think it's fair to include his xFIP as a starting pitcher anymore than it is to include Perkins'.

Thanks for the correction.

 

He has road xFIPS as a reliever of 3.46 and 3.78 (near NL league average) in mostly low leverage situations. He should be projected to decline given his age. I am still not convinced he should be a lock for a spot in the pen. He needs to show he is one of the best 12. If he isn't clearly better than Oliveros or other young arm, the twins need to go with the upside of the younger pitcher with team control beyond 2015.

[mnfireman]

This team could do worse than to take a page out of the Cardinals, Rangers, Giants and a few other successful teams and put Mays and Meyer out in the bullpen and sort of control the situations they are brought into. Build up their confidence a little, stretch them out and maybe put them in the rotation come August or September.