Article: Stauffer Signing Slightly Improves Staff

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins' signing of veteran right-hander Tim Stauffer slipped under the radar to a large degree as a fairly minor acquisition that fell amidst a holiday week.

 

But in adding the 32-year-old, the team is ponying up a couple million in guaranteed money to address a unit that already seemed somewhat crowded.

 

How does Stauffer fit?Stauffer's one-year, $2.2 million deal isn't significantly different from what the Twins would have given Anthony Swarzak, who was the only arbitration-eligible player they chose to non-tender. Considering the similarities between the two pitchers, this looks like a straight-up swap.

 

Like Swarzak, Stauffer has spent time as a starter and as a reliever. And like Swarzak, he's been much better in the bullpen, where he has a 2.65 career ERA.

 

But unlike Swarzak, Stauffer has actually had some success as a starter. In that role, the veteran has a 4.29 career ERA -- compared to 5.87 for Swarzak -- and in his most recent season as a full-time member of the rotation (2011), Stauffer put up a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 31 starts.

 

Now, all of those numbers were accrued in the National League, with Petco Park as his home field, so the skill difference between Stauffer and Swarzak might not actually be as large as the statistical gap suggests.

 

But the newcomer profiles as a better reliever, capable of missing more bats and filling a more impactful role in the bullpen, so he's a welcome addition.

 

He also looks like a guy who can step in and make a good spot start in situations where the Twins need someone and don't want to make a roster move. That is a weapon that any team likes to have available somewhere in its bullpen, and it's an area where Swarzak never really proved adequate.

 

With all the talk of improving the quality of their starting pitching depth, this may have been the key consideration for the Twins in replacing Swarzak with Stauffer.

 

It's not a huge upgrade, but it does make the team slightly better, and getting slightly better in many different areas is a good way to move the needle in a larger sense.

 

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[jorgenswest]

Lots of things point towards Stauffer trending down.

 

-Changing to AL

-Moving from Petco Park (0.826 and 29th) to Target Field (1.116 and 3rd)

-In the decline phase of career. Non closers drop off significantly from age 31 to 33.

-Used in low leverage last year. If the Twins change that use it will impact performance.

 

His ERA and missed bats in low leverage situations were nice last year, but it would be foolish for the Twins to take last year's numbers and project something similar this year.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

I also did a study of aging on relievers from 31 to 33 when the Twins were considering extending Burton after 1 year. He declined significantly passed 31. Unfortunately, the study is unreadable after TD's change in blogging software last summer.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-1759-burton-whats-is-the-future-for-a-31-year-old-set-up-man/

Edited December 29, 2014 by jorgenswest

[Dantes929]

He will make a good  gauge.   If takes Swarzak's role and does well but ends up starting once or twice it will probably be a good sign.   If he gets more than 5 starts no matter how well he pitches its probably a sign that the season hasn't gone well.   The title said slight improvement and if that what we get then great.  

[Mike Sixel]

If only there was a guy in AAA who could fill that spot, and had electric stuff.......and then another guy in AAA that could take his spot if he moved onto a full time starting role. Alas, that does not appear to be the case, from the most vaunted minor league system ever*

 

*hyperbole, btw.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

At best this move is an even up for Swarzak...not an improvement...Stauffer's numbers will drop cause he went from Petco Park...at worst...this is a move that blocks Meyer or May...I hope not.

[old nurse]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

I also did a study of aging on relievers from 31 to 33 when the Twins were considering extending Burton after 1 year. He declined significantly passed 31. Unfortunately, the study is unreadable after TD's change in blogging software last summer.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-1759-burton-whats-is-the-future-for-a-31-year-old-set-up-man/

Except for when he started, Stauffer has not pitched 60 innings in a season. It does build a case for not overusing your bullpens as perhaps the decline is as much due to overuse as age

[ken]

Looks like the Twins don't rebuild, they reload

[DocBauer]

As stated elsewhere previously, this is about the bullpen move I expected, and would have made myself. Looking for that "Berenguer-Willis-Burton" guy on the FA market as a potential high reward, low risk guy. And despite really hard stuff, Stauffer might be that guy. A solid slider and quality change can go a long, long way if his fastball is at least decent in movement and location.

 

I just don't know that he does anything, or brings anything, other than experience, that Oliveros and Tonkin and Achter can't provide as well or better. A healthy Pelfrey MIGHT be included on that list.