The Hall of Fame Ballot / big Hall-small Hall / Hall is broken-unbroken / WAR stinks-doesn't stink / BBWAA stinks-doesn't stink thread

[gunnarthor]

  On 12/31/2014 at 5:29 PM, gunnarthor said:

I think 4 guys get in - Randy, Pedro, Biggio and Smoltz.  (which, frankly, would be a pretty good class).

Nailed it

[nicksaviking]

  On 1/6/2015 at 7:53 PM, Tuba said:

7 players in two years is a pretty good change of pace. My concern is Piazza/whoever doesn't get in next year because voters will want Griffey 'to go in alone.'

 

I don't think that's a big issue any more.  Perhaps Johnson isn't quite on Griffey's level, but Maddox surely is and he didn't get the spotlight to himself.

[biggentleben]

The final vote (17 total votes):

Randy Johnson 100%

Pedro Martinez 88.24%

Jeff Bagwell 88.24%

John Smoltz 82.35%

Craig Biggio 82.35%

Mike Piazza 70.59%

Mike Mussina 64.71%

Barry Bonds 52.94%

Roger Clemens 52.94%

Curt Schilling 47.06%

Tim Raines 47.06%

Larry Walker 29.41%

Alan Trammell 29.41%

Edgar Martinez 29.41%

Mark McGwire 11.76%

Lee Smith 5.88%

Gary Sheffield 5.88%

Fred McGriff 5.88%

Eddie Guardado 5.88%

All others - 0%

[Willihammer]

IMO Biggio getting in before some of the other guys seems like evidence there are some voters still voting on plateau stats, eg. 3000 hits.

[tobi0040]

  On 1/7/2015 at 2:09 PM, Willihammer said:

IMO Biggio getting in before some of the other guys seems like evidence there are some voters still voting on plateau stats, eg. 3000 hits.

 

But when you look at him in the context of a 2B, he is a no brainer HOF player.  Almost an .800 OPS.  291 HR, 414 SB, in addition to the 3,060 hits.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

  On 1/7/2015 at 2:58 PM, tobi0040 said:

But when you look at him in the context of a 2B, he is a no brainer HOF player.  Almost an .800 OPS.  291 HR, 414 SB, in addition to the 3,060 hits.

The interesting thing to me about Biggio is that he excelled at three different up the middle positions - starting as a catcher, then 2B, and also he spent a full season in CF.

[Willihammer]

  On 1/7/2015 at 2:58 PM, tobi0040 said:

But when you look at him in the context of a 2B, he is a no brainer HOF player.  Almost an .800 OPS.  291 HR, 414 SB, in addition to the 3,060 hits.

I agree he has a strong case anyway. But Biggio's case is no stronger than a lot of other guys on the ballot, some of which have been going 5+ years now (Bagwell, Walker, McGriff, Martinez).

 

Similar story with Smoltz in a way. He has a strong case but I would have probably voted Mussina and Schilling if forced to choose. The results indicate that some writers might have opted for the conventional threshold counting stats and accolades (CYA) that's required to put a guy in the Hall.

[tobi0040]

  On 1/7/2015 at 3:40 PM, Willihammer said:

I agree he has a strong case anyway. But Biggio's case is no stronger than a lot of other guys on the ballot, some of which have been going 5+ years now (Bagwell, Walker, McGriff, Martinez).

 

Similar story with Smoltz in a way. He has a strong case but I would have probably voted Mussina and Schilling if forced to choose. The results indicate that some writers might have opted for the conventional threshold counting stats and accolades (CYA) that's required to put a guy in the Hall.

 

On a position basis, I don’t see a huge premium added onto Biggio, relative to others for the 3,000 hits.

According to fangraphs, Biggio is 10th all time in WAR among 2B.  Nobody above him played within 15 years of him and he is ahead of Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar, who are already in the hall.

 

Among 1B, Bagwell was 7th all time.  However you see this position littered with guys from this era. In the top 20, you have Pujols, Thomas, Murray, Raffy, Thome, and Mcgwire.  In addition, many are penalizing him given PED whispers and the sniff test.  I think that is his biggest issue. 

 

Walker was 27th all time OF, granted that is about the same range if you divide by three.  The biggest issue for him, IMO is Coors Field.  His career OPS was about .950, but at Coors across 600+ games he had an OPS of 1.172. 

 

The Crime Dog was the 30th 1B all time by WAR.

 

I think the hall frankly does not care much for DH’s (Edgar).

 

Jayson Stark actually came to the opposite conclusion, one of his learnings this year was that the milestones mean less.  Although this was true more on the pitching side (300 wins) and the hitters he cites (Sosa, Mcgwire, Bonds, etc.) had PED issues.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12128470/five-things-learned-hall-fame-election

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

What about Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker? Hopefully those two get a little love from a veteran's committee in the future. They both had higher fangraphs and bref WAR totals than Biggio.

[Willihammer]

  On 1/7/2015 at 6:47 PM, tobi0040 said:

Jayson Stark actually came to the opposite conclusion, one of his learnings this year was that the milestones mean less.  Although this was true more on the pitching side (300 wins) and the hitters he cites (Sosa, Mcgwire, Bonds, etc.) had PED issues.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12128470/five-things-learned-hall-fame-election

Right, magic numbers don't seem to matter as much except the guys who have them are mostly PED users and that's what's penalizing their HoF candidacies. Among "clean" players, Biggio has the 3000 hit box checked, whereas none of the "clean" batters (Piazza, Edgar, McGriff, Bagwell, for arguments sake), has either 3000 hits or 500 HRs. Maybe I'm reading too much into that.

 

Separately, with all the haboo from a crowd in the BBWAA to expand the number of votes from 10 to 12, did anyone divide the total votes cast by the number of ballots? The result is 8.42, meaning the average voter isn't even using all 10 votes. Thought that was interesting.

[Pius Jefferson]

I think for some voters the fact Biggio hung on to reach 3,000 hits worked against him. I was a huge Craig Biggio guy but his last eight years saw a dramatic decline in production.

 

The way things work though had he retired at 37 after two below average seasons his career numbers wouldn't have been good enough by many voters to warrant induction. 

[tobi0040]

This year had three first ballot guys.  This stream of guys will be scaled back, as far as I can tell to 2020.  I see one first ballot guy from each class from 2016 to 2020, leaving room for other guys to get in, starting with Piazza and liklely others.

 

2016

Ken Griffey Jr.  6th all time in HR, mainly out of CF.  .907 OPS. 136 OPS plus.  Crazy numbers considering most believe his numbers were cut short due to injuries.

 

2017

Pudge.  One of the best hitting catchers ever.  I think he won't struggle to get in like Piazza because he doesn't have PED whispers attached.  311 HR.   Behind only Bench in career WAR among catchers.  Big piece of the 2003 Marlins championship.  If any of these guys does not make it on their first shot it would probably be him, but I think he gets in on his first try.

 

2018

Chipper Jones.   .930 OPS out of 3B.  2,700 hits, 468 HR.  .303 average, .401 OBP. .529 slugging.  OPS plus 141.  

 

Thome is probably close, 612 HR, .950 OPS. OPS plus 141.  But he played half his games at DH, so it is difficult to see how that will hurt him.  He will get in eventually for sure.

 

2019

Mariano Rivera.   Too dominant and a key piece to too many championships not to be a first ballot HOF guy.

 

2020

Derek Jeter.  The numbers are just too good and like Rivera, a key guy on many world series teams. 

 

http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2014/10/20/predicting-the-next-20-years-of-hall-of-fame-inductees/

[nicksaviking]

  On 1/8/2015 at 2:19 PM, tobi0040 said:

This year had three first ballot guys.  This stream of guys will be scaled back, as far as I can tell to 2020.  I see one first ballot guy from each class from 2016 to 2020, leaving room for other guys to get in, starting with Piazza and liklely others.

 

Pudge.  One of the best hitting catchers ever.  I think he won't struggle to get in like Piazza because he doesn't have PED whispers attached.  311 HR.   Behind only Bench in career WAR among catchers.  Big piece of the 2003 Marlins championship.  If any of these guys does not make it on their first shot it would probably be him, but I think he gets in on his first try.

 

 

I think Pudge has more whispers of PED's than Piazza since Canseco wrote in his book that he personally injected him with steroids.  We can believe it or not, but that's more than whispers.  Also, when everyone was waiting to see who the 103 players would be on the Mitchell report, Pudge acted like he assumed he would be named.  It turned out he wasn't, but many writers were reporting the way he acted when asked those questions might as well have been an admittance.  He might get in, in fact more than Bonds and Clemmons, he might be the one guy who breaks the PED glass ceiling as he was both revered and respected, but I think it's quite likely that anyone who played for those Ranger teams will be blackballed for the time being.

[tobi0040]

  On 1/8/2015 at 2:35 PM, nicksaviking said:

I think Pudge has more whispers of PED's than Piazza since Canseco wrote in his book that he personally injected him with steroids.  We can believe it or not, but that's more than whispers.  Also, when everyone was waiting to see who the 103 players would be on the Mitchell report, Pudge acted like he assumed he would be named.  It turned out he wasn't, but many writers were reporting the way he acted when asked those questions might as well have been an admittance.  He might get in, in fact more than Bonds and Clemmons, he might be the one guy who breaks the PED glass ceiling as he was both revered and respected, but I think it's quite likely that anyone who played for those Ranger teams will be blackballed for the time being.

 

I totally forgot about Pudge's connection.  Makes him an unlikely first timer. 

[gunnarthor]

  On 1/8/2015 at 2:19 PM, tobi0040 said:

This year had three first ballot guys.  This stream of guys will be scaled back, as far as I can tell to 2020.  I see one first ballot guy from each class from 2016 to 2020, leaving room for other guys to get in, starting with Piazza and liklely others.

 

2016

Ken Griffey Jr.  6th all time in HR, mainly out of CF.  .907 OPS. 136 OPS plus.  Crazy numbers considering most believe his numbers were cut short due to injuries.

 

2017

Pudge.  One of the best hitting catchers ever.  I think he won't struggle to get in like Piazza because he doesn't have PED whispers attached.  311 HR.   Behind only Bench in career WAR among catchers.  Big piece of the 2003 Marlins championship.  If any of these guys does not make it on their first shot it would probably be him, but I think he gets in on his first try.

 

2018

Chipper Jones.   .930 OPS out of 3B.  2,700 hits, 468 HR.  .303 average, .401 OBP. .529 slugging.  OPS plus 141.  

 

Thome is probably close, 612 HR, .950 OPS. OPS plus 141.  But he played half his games at DH, so it is difficult to see how that will hurt him.  He will get in eventually for sure.

 

2019

Mariano Rivera.   Too dominant and a key piece to too many championships not to be a first ballot HOF guy.

 

2020

Derek Jeter.  The numbers are just too good and like Rivera, a key guy on many world series teams. 

 

http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2014/10/20/predicting-the-next-20-years-of-hall-of-fame-inductees/

2016 - I think next year Griffey and Piazza get in and you start seeing a big push for Moose and Schilling.  I think Hoffman gets a lot of support, too.  I wonder if people start looking at Jeff Kent.  Jim Edmonds is another first year guy who might get Lofton'd off the ballot too quickly.

 

2017 - Manny and Pudge both enter ballot and we will hear a lot about PED discussion.  Vlad also gets on the ballot and gets elected.  This is Jeff Bagwell's best chance, if he doesn't make it this year, he's probably not going to make it.  But the PED guys might make it hard for him, fair or not.  We still have the Schilling/Moose logjam and this is Raines last year on the ballot.  Jorge Posada also gets on the ballot and will get some strong support, as will Hoffman, I think.  And you still have a handful of solid candidates - Sheffield, Kent, Edgar, McGriff, Walker, Edmonds. I think this is the most argumentative election year we'll have in some time.

 

2018 - 4 big newcomers - Chipper Jones, Andrus Jones, Jim Thome and Scott Rolen.  Raines is off the ballot and I think Rolen gets a lot of support from the statheads.  With those four and Edgar, Bagwell, Moose/Schilling, Hoffman, Pudge, Posada, etc it'll be a pretty crowded ballot.  

 

2019 - Bagwell's last year on the ballot but it's a Yankee love fest with Mo and Pettitte coming on and Posada still on it.  Other newcomers are Halliday, Todd Helton and Roy Oswalt.  

 

Guys who have been in that crappy 10-45% are going to have a real hard time breaking out in the next few years.  And I wonder if there is a solid 25+% of voters who won't vote for suspected PED guys - Bagwell, Pudge.

[tobi0040]

  On 1/8/2015 at 3:39 PM, gunnarthor said:

2016 - I think next year Griffey and Piazza get in and you start seeing a big push for Moose and Schilling.  I think Hoffman gets a lot of support, too.  I wonder if people start looking at Jeff Kent.  Jim Edmonds is another first year guy who might get Lofton'd off the ballot too quickly.

 

2017 - Manny and Pudge both enter ballot and we will hear a lot about PED discussion.  Vlad also gets on the ballot and gets elected.  This is Jeff Bagwell's best chance, if he doesn't make it this year, he's probably not going to make it.  But the PED guys might make it hard for him, fair or not.  We still have the Schilling/Moose logjam and this is Raines last year on the ballot.  Jorge Posada also gets on the ballot and will get some strong support, as will Hoffman, I think.  And you still have a handful of solid candidates - Sheffield, Kent, Edgar, McGriff, Walker, Edmonds. I think this is the most argumentative election year we'll have in some time.

 

2018 - 4 big newcomers - Chipper Jones, Andrus Jones, Jim Thome and Scott Rolen.  Raines is off the ballot and I think Rolen gets a lot of support from the statheads.  With those four and Edgar, Bagwell, Moose/Schilling, Hoffman, Pudge, Posada, etc it'll be a pretty crowded ballot.  

 

2019 - Bagwell's last year on the ballot but it's a Yankee love fest with Mo and Pettitte coming on and Posada still on it.  Other newcomers are Halliday, Todd Helton and Roy Oswalt.  

 

Guys who have been in that crappy 10-45% are going to have a real hard time breaking out in the next few years.  And I wonder if there is a solid 25+% of voters who won't vote for suspected PED guys - Bagwell, Pudge.

 

When you brought up Hoffman, I looked to compare to Rivera.  I was blown away at how much better Mariano's numbers were than Hoffmans.

 

Hoffman  2.87 ERA.  141 ERA plus.  1.05 WHIP.  601 saves.  9.4 per 9.

Rivera     2.21 ERA.  205 ERA plus.  1.00 WHIP.  652 saves.  8.2 k per 9 (it was the cutter....)

[Otto von Ballpark]

  Quote

Johnson, Schilling, Edgar, Smoltz, Mussina, Trammell, McGriff, Walker, Biggio, Everyday Eddie .... man, you run out of ten spots pretty quick.

  On 12/31/2014 at 3:53 PM, gunnarthor said:

I'm not sure a 5 year peak is enough to get a guy into the HOF and that is really all of Raines claim to the HOF.  Nearly half his career WAR, 35% of his career hits and a third of his walks came in those 5 years.  

 

 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

  On 1/8/2015 at 3:56 PM, tobi0040 said:

When you brought up Hoffman, I looked to compare to Rivera.  I was blown away at how much better Mariano's numbers were than Hoffmans.

 

Hoffman  2.87 ERA.  141 ERA plus.  1.05 WHIP.  601 saves.  9.4 per 9.

Rivera     2.21 ERA.  205 ERA plus.  1.00 WHIP.  652 saves.  8.2 k per 9 (it was the cutter....)

 

Rivera is next level - I think Hoffman is an easy choice for Hall of Fame, but yes Mariano's resume is ridiculous. I think Hoffman might not make it in his first year, but I think he's better than most of the relievers in the Hall of Fame already.

[gunnarthor]

  On 1/8/2015 at 5:19 PM, spycake said:

 

table.jpg

 

 

 

Edgar's 5 year peak you took was about as good as Raines by WAR (interestingly enough WAR punishes Edgar pretty good in those years, his dWAR in 95 was -1.3 despite playing 7 games in the field).  But Edgar had a bunch of other great seasons outside of those 5 years.  In the other 13 seasons (11, if you ignore the two pre rookie years), he had another 4 5+ WAR seasons (two of which were over 6) and another 4.8 one.  Basically, he had 10 5+ WAR seasons in a 16 year career.  And, again, WAR isn't a great measure for DH's.  Raines had 6 in 21 seasons (and WAR might be over rating his base running).  

 

Same deal with Trammell, Better and longer peak years (6 6+ WAR years), more 4 WAR years as well (9 in 18 years compared to 6 in 21).  Walker, more of the same.  Walker had 10 4 WAR years in 17 seasons.  Raines didn't have as many HOF seasons, although his 5 year peak was surely HOF worthy. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 1/8/2015 at 6:01 PM, gunnarthor said:

Edgar's 5 year peak you took was about as good as Raines by WAR (interestingly enough WAR punishes Edgar pretty good in those years, his dWAR in 95 was -1.3 despite playing 7 games in the field).  But Edgar had a bunch of other great seasons outside of those 5 years.  In the other 13 seasons (11, if you ignore the two pre rookie years), he had another 4 5+ WAR seasons (two of which were over 6) and another 4.8 one.  Basically, he had 10 5+ WAR seasons in a 16 year career.  And, again, WAR isn't a great measure for DH's.  Raines had 6 in 21 seasons (and WAR might be over rating his base running).  

 

Same deal with Trammell, Better and longer peak years (6 6+ WAR years), more 4 WAR years as well (9 in 18 years compared to 6 in 21).  Walker, more of the same.  Walker had 10 4 WAR years in 17 seasons.  Raines didn't have as many HOF seasons, although his 5 year peak was surely HOF worthy. 

Peak isn't the only way to get a HOF career.

 

Is Biggie not in your persona HOF?  Tony Gwynn?  Paul Molitor?  Eddie Murray?  Ozzie Smith?  Dave Winfield?  Carlton Fisk?

[gunnarthor]

  On 1/8/2015 at 6:35 PM, spycake said:

Peak isn't the only way to get a HOF career.

 

Is Biggie not in your persona HOF?  Tony Gwynn?  Paul Molitor?  Eddie Murray?  Ozzie Smith?  Dave Winfield?  Carlton Fisk?

If I had a HOF vote, I might use it on Raines - I'm torn but I don't think he's a slam dunk candidate and I think he's overvalued by many.  Doesn't mean he isn't a HOFer.  But I do think if you think he's a HOFer, you should support other players with short peaks - Utley, Nomar, Oliva etc - because nothing outside of his peak suggests a HOF career.

 

His did compile a career WAR total close to or better than many HOFers, although WAR is a really over used stat in this context, esp when defense and base running are involved.  Winfield, for example had 10 seasons of oWAR over 4 but defense knocks him down a peg.  (And some of your guys aren't really good comparisons - Molitor, for example, is a pretty obvious HOFer by all metrics.  WAR wise, he had more 5 WAR seasons, more 4 WAR seasons and far fewer bad seasons - ie seasons of less than 1 or 2 WAR, of which Raines had many).

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The BBWAA folks that wanted to do so made their choices public here:

 

http://bbwaa.com/15-hof-ballots/

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 1/8/2015 at 7:43 PM, gunnarthor said:

If I had a HOF vote, I might use it on Raines - I'm torn but I don't think he's a slam dunk candidate and I think he's overvalued by many.  Doesn't mean he isn't a HOFer.  But I do think if you think he's a HOFer, you should support other players with short peaks - Utley, Nomar, Oliva etc - because nothing outside of his peak suggests a HOF career.

It seems like you are quarantining Raines' peak from the rest of the career.  Both parts happened.  And it's not a "short peak" case -- it's a solid peak PLUS a fairly long career of usefulness, the equivalent of 17 full 600 PA seasons (not as many as Molitor at 20 such seasons, but well ahead of Oliva's 11).  With a WAR/PA rate still better than Oliva's!  If Oliva played 6 more full seasons, and improved his WAR/PA rate in that extra time, yeah, I'd support him as much as Raines.

 

  On 1/8/2015 at 7:43 PM, gunnarthor said:

His did compile a career WAR total close to or better than many HOFers, although WAR is a really over used stat in this context, esp when defense and base running are involved.  Winfield, for example had 10 seasons of oWAR over 4 but defense knocks him down a peg.  (And some of your guys aren't really good comparisons - Molitor, for example, is a pretty obvious HOFer by all metrics.  WAR wise, he had more 5 WAR seasons, more 4 WAR seasons and far fewer bad seasons - ie seasons of less than 1 or 2 WAR, of which Raines had many).

Just looking at Rbat -- batting runs above average, with no defense, base running, or positional adjustment -- Raines accumulated Rbat at almost exactly the same rate as Molitor.  Yet Molitor is "a pretty obvious HOFer" because he did it for 20 years and Raines "only" 17?  I know we've had some really long career guys lately (Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Jeter, etc.), but 17 full seasons is still the median career length for modern HOF batters (retired after 1990).

 

No one is arguing that Raines is inner-circle or anything, but the man deserved election some time ago, before ballot crowding was even a concern.  Same for Trammell, etc.

[tobi0040]

  On 1/8/2015 at 9:12 PM, spycake said:

 

No one is arguing that Raines is inner-circle or anything, but the man deserved election some time ago, before ballot crowding was even a concern.  Same for Trammell, etc.

 

Some have argued that instead of a checkbox, they should have a yes or a no.  That would be ideal. 

 

A guy is either a hall of famer, or he is not. This 7-8 times on the ballot thing is just dumb.  As Bert used to say, I haven't thrown a pitch but  my vote count jumped....

[jimmer]

  On 1/8/2015 at 9:16 PM, tobi0040 said:

Some have argued that instead of a checkbox, they should have a yes or a no.  That would be ideal. 

 

A guy is either a hall of famer, or he is not. This 7-8 times on the ballot thing is just dumb.  As Bert used to say, I haven't thrown a pitch but  my vote count jumped....

Bert's numbers went up because people got smarter about baseball and as people learn (if they are open to learning) minds can be changed,  For some reason, he doesn't want to acknowledge that is the reason, but if it wasn't for the SABR people he and so many seem to despise, including him, he wouldn't have made it.

[jimmer]

Raines' biggest problem is being compared to Henderson so often.  I think that should be a point in his favor, not the other way around. I mean if you're good enough to have that comparison, that's awesome.  

 

A similar situation will likely occur again soon, because Hoffman may go through the same thing because of comparisons to Rivera.

[ashbury]

  On 1/8/2015 at 10:43 PM, jimmer said:

Bert's numbers went up because people got smarter about baseball and as people learn (if they are open to learning) minds can be changed,  For some reason, he doesn't want to acknowledge that is the reason, but if it wasn't for the SABR people he and so many seem to despise, including him, he wouldn't have made it.

California Math got him in!

[gunnarthor]

  On 1/8/2015 at 9:12 PM, spycake said:

It seems like you are quarantining Raines' peak from the rest of the career.  Both parts happened.  And it's not a "short peak" case -- it's a solid peak PLUS a fairly long career of usefulness, the equivalent of 17 full 600 PA seasons (not as many as Molitor at 20 such seasons, but well ahead of Oliva's 11).  With a WAR/PA rate still better than Oliva's!  If Oliva played 6 more full seasons, and improved his WAR/PA rate in that extra time, yeah, I'd support him as much as Raines.

 

Just looking at Rbat -- batting runs above average, with no defense, base running, or positional adjustment -- Raines accumulated Rbat at almost exactly the same rate as Molitor.  Yet Molitor is "a pretty obvious HOFer" because he did it for 20 years and Raines "only" 17?  I know we've had some really long career guys lately (Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Jeter, etc.), but 17 full seasons is still the median career length for modern HOF batters (retired after 1990).

 

No one is arguing that Raines is inner-circle or anything, but the man deserved election some time ago, before ballot crowding was even a concern.  Same for Trammell, etc.

I think you missing my point.  Certainly, Raines was able to compile certain statistics that, too many, mark him as a HOFer.  His career WAR is in that territory.  Maybe other statistics.  Some people think 500 HR make someone a HOFer, some argue 300 wins is a HOFer.  Whatever your stat, there is someone willing to argue a benchmark number over a career that equates to a HOF career.  It's the compiler argument and I don't particularly like it. 

 

Raines played in part of 23 seasons.  Two can be ignored b/c they were cups of coffee before his rookie seasons.  In his 21 seasons, he had (generously) 6 HOF seasons: 83-87 and 92.  He had (again, generously) 7 good seasons where he was a better than avg player.  And then he had 8 pretty clearly non-HOF/non-good seasons.  If we looked at his seasons as percentages, his HOF/Good/Bad break down would be 28/33/38.

 

Molitor, by contrast, had, in 20 seasons and also generously, 9 HOF seasons, another 7 better than avg seasons and only 4 rough seasons (not counting 1984).  45/35/20

 

Oliva managed 6 HOF seasons in only 12 years (also not counting his cup of coffee seasons and injury wrecked 1972). Another two pretty good seasons and 4 trainwreck seasons.  50/16/33

 

I think people who like Raines don't give enough consideration to his individual seasons.  I also know that it's not quite fair to pretend all seasons are equal. Raines amassed most of his HOF and good seasons during a very strong run from 81-93, that he lost some time to 3 work stoppages, which would have improved his overall numbers and he was screwed over in 87 by ownership collusion and forced to miss a month of the season.  And he was good enough/healthy enough to stick around well after his prime and not embarrass himself.  But I do think that people that are pushing for Raines should give consideration to other short peak guys - like Oliva.

 

* also, I have no idea how you think he had the equivalent of 17 full 600 PA seasons outside of his peak.  Subtracting those PA from his career total, he managed about 11 years worth of PA over those other 17 seasons.

[Otto von Ballpark]

17 full season equivalents total, as compared to Molitor's 20 and Oliva's 11. Sorry, thought that was clear.

 

Molitor is better but I definitely do not see a HOF in/out line between Molitor and Raines. They are both career candidates more than peak. Most of Molitor's value came in 13 seasons too, which is longer than Oliva's entire career.

 

Oliva has the peak of a career candidate but without the career, if that makes sense.