Article: Twins Extend Phil Hughes

[tobi0040]

You can never have too much pitching.  And since we've still only made one significant addition (Santana) to the league's worst rotation I'm pretty sure we don't have too much yet.  Not yet worried about "blocking the young guys."  If we get to a point where it makes sense for the young guys to be in the rotation there is always a market for reasonably priced starting pitching.  And while Twins fans look at the contracts of Hughes, Nolasco & Santana as huge deals, a lot of big market clubs would see them as reasonable.  Much easier to move a 4 year $55 million deal than a 6 year $155 million deal.  As far as an extension for Dozier, I'd like to at least see him hit .245 once before I committed to such a move. 

 

I am not too caught up in the batting average.  The 9 WAR over the last two years is more telling.  I think the slugging, HR, SB, and defense at 2B provides a ton of value.

[big dog]

I got a huge smile and a warm feeling from this- before I even saw the money.  What great news. 

[TRex]

While I had a pang of regret when I first read the news, you all have convinced me that I was just being miserly and short-sighted!

 

Upon further reflection, this just feels so much like the Radke extension in 2000 which, the club has repeatedly said, greatly influenced the moral of the young players and the acquisition of free agents.

 

And if Hughes can maintain a 3.52 ERA (and a GB/FB of <0.6) with an outfield including Willingham, Colabello, Parmalee and Arcia; imagine what he can do with some combination of Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Kepler!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have to admit I didn't think Hughes would even be interested in this given the season he had. In that, I think this was a no brainer.

What's weird is that many of us thought the same thing last offseason -- why would he lock himself into a 3 year deal when his value was so low?  I rationalized it by saying he wanted some decent cash and a shot to hit the market again at age 30, but this seems to throw that out the window.

 

 

It certainly seems as if Hughes bucks the conventional wisdom around MLB contracts.

[jokin]

What's weird is that many of us thought the same thing last offseason -- why would he lock himself into a 3 year deal when his value was so low?  I rationalized it by saying he wanted some decent cash and a shot to hit the market again at age 30, but this seems to throw that out the window.

 

 

It certainly seems as if Hughes bucks the conventional wisdom around MLB contracts.

 

Has anyone given thought that he was looking for this type of situation... and never again wants to endure the shellshock of ever playing again in a major media market meatgrinder?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What's weird is that many of us thought the same thing last offseason -- why would he lock himself into a 3 year deal when his value was so low?  I rationalized it by saying he wanted some decent cash and a shot to hit the market again at age 30, but this seems to throw that out the window.

 

It certainly seems as if Hughes bucks the conventional wisdom around MLB contracts.

I'm guessing that Hughes is so in love with not getting booed mercilessly that he wants to live in the bowels of Target Field until he dies.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

After all, he did tweet he wished he was still in LA back in late September. 

 

 

And tweeted, "I love LA" this morning.

[nicksaviking]

Has anyone given thought that he was looking for this type of situation... and never again wants to endure the shellshock of ever playing again in a major media market meatgrinder?

 

Yup, that could very well be.  He could be a hero in this market.  In a larger market at best he's key supporting figure and at worst he's the goat that gets 100 media members at his locker after every start asking him 100 different ways why he sucks so bad.

Edited May 3, 2018 by nicksaviking

[big dog]

Has anyone given thought that he was looking for this type of situation... and never again wants to endure the shellshock of ever playing again in a major media market meatgrinder?

You have earned a plentitude of points for posing such a powerful, if perhaps pretentious, presumption of perspicacity.

 

However, your masterful alliteration was mildly marred by marrying a media meatgrinder metaphor with shellshock, mostly mentioned as a military malady.

 

Please revise this essay and resubmit if you hope to earn an A on the assignment.

[ashbury]

You have earned a plentitude of points for posing such a powerful, if perhaps pretentious, presumption of perspicacity.

 

However, your masterful alliteration was mildly marred by marrying a media meatgrinder metaphor with shellshock, mostly mentioned as a military malady.

 

Please revise this essay and resubmit if you hope to earn an A on the assignment.

The moderators are mindful of most mixed metaphors and make many measured moves.  Although, alliterations are always acceptable.

[big dog]

The moderators are mindful of most mixed metaphors and make many measured moves.  Although, alliterations are always acceptable.

Noted.  Nice narrative.

[Steven Buhr]

I'm guessing that Hughes is so in love with not getting booed mercilessly that he wants to live in the bowels of Target Field until he dies.

So, you're saying he made this decision without consulting with Joe Mauer?

 

As for Hughes' deal, it's hard for me to imagine anyone not liking this (Scott Boras maybe?)

 

Hughes gets significant financial security and the Twins send another message that they're serious about making sure they never again have a rotation like those they had in 2011-12.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[h2oface]

All I have to do is take a look at the Nolasco contract (and the Santana contract for that matter) to love love love this one. I always hate to see the players that had the best years get paid less than the ones that didn't, regardless of the agreeements.  This is some justice.

[JB_Iowa]

Lots of good quotes:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/22/twinsights-highlights-phil-hughes-media-teleconference/

 

Hughes on whether new deal impacts his leadership responsibilities: “It may. I feel a little bit uncomfortable in that leadership role being last year a 27 year old. I have a feeling I’ll warm up to that a little more as we get going along. I’ve always seen a lot of guys that lead by example in my time and I’d like to be a guy that does the same.”

 

Seems like he's been in the game so long that its a bit of a surprise that he would have felt that at  27  but glad to see him realize he is going to have leadership responsibilities although Santana's presence helps with that.

Edited December 22, 2014 by JB_Iowa

[HitInAPinch]

So, I'm gonna be the one naysayer.  I keep looking at his year to year stats and there's definitely a pattern:  Starting in 2010, it goes good year, bad year up to last seasons good year.  I also look at 2010 and 2012 and see those 2 years Hughes tossed his highest number of innings up to that time.  Last year, his highest number of innings to date.  In the previous down years, I believe he was injured.  I still think the Twins were foolish to continue starting Hughes [and Gibson] when the season was already lost, by a WIDE margin. 

 

I would have held off on an extension until the middle of the new season.  Sorry....

[King]

Great sign by the Twins.

[dxpavelka]

I am not too caught up in the batting average.  The 9 WAR over the last two years is more telling.  I think the slugging, HR, SB, and defense at 2B provides a ton of value.

HR & SB can easily be cut in half.  Just witness his pre and post all-star splits.  HR:  18/5; SB:  16/5.  Double down on those two fives and tell me about the defensive prowess of a 10/10 guy with a career .241 average.

[Blake]

Let me see, the Twins just extended a guy who:

 

A. Set a record for walks in a season and B. Turned down the opportunity to pick up an extra 500K, basically, because he didn't see the point.

 

How do the Twins not extend a guy who had what was arguably a breakout season, and, with better outfield defense may get even better and has a great attitude about his profession?

 

Wasn't there an article earlier this year that drew some similarities, career timeline wise, between Hughes and Cliff Lee? How expensive does it get to sign Hughes if he has truly figured it out? 

[jcphitman]

A few thoughts from last year when Hughes signed and now this year.

 

Last Year:

1.  In 2012 offseason, I remember TR saying the Twins has offers out, but nobody wanted to take their money. Many of us were skeptical. Last year, I think it proved to be a moot point at both Hughes and Nolasco took their money.

 

2.  I think Hughes saw something here. The Twins most likely sold him on the future and their pitcher's park. He also saw the team was willing to guarantee him a 3 year deal for pretty good money (under market value, but good) for the season he just had. He saw security and took it.

 

3.  The Twins saw something in Hughes. One has to remember he's pitched his entire career in the American League. That's valuable to the Twins. They hedged their bet on FA last year by signing a career NL SP. They were able to get an AL SP here who was still in his 20's and under reasonable terms for more than just a year on a rebound.

 

It clearly paid off for both sides.

 

This Year:

1.  Hughes experienced the losing, but saw a light. He saw the Twins are trying. He saw the team wanted to give him every opportunity to succeed and rewarded them. He also saw the loyalty. People knock the Twins for their loyalty, but it paid off in this one. I saw a tweet that Hughes was impressed with the way the team was going and very happy with the recent signings (ie - Santana). The tweet said he was more than happy to extend his deal in Minnesota. He's not under the spotlight as he was in NY and he's growing with a young team.

 

2.  The Twins saw a pitcher who had success in the AL before have a career year with them last year. They felt comfortable knowing Hughes had the AL track record, was young, and they could lock up for a good chunk of time under a reasonable extension. The Twins also saw a pitcher who has been to the playoffs and won a World Series. It all fits well as they have someone established to hopefully pitch well and show the young guys the was as they come up.

 

All in all, a very fair deal on both sides. Hughes gets long term security on a team that has the pieces in place to become successful and also a place he's clearly comfortable being in. The Twins get what appears to be a good SP in his prime who hopefully can have success long term as they keep climbing. Both sides loyal to each other.

 

Best of all, this sends a message to players out there. It shows FA's that players DO want the Twins' money and this is as good of a market as any to sign with and play for. I'm sure many players around the league and their agents are looking at Minnesota as a good place to play. They have seen the Twins finally step up willing to pay to bring in talent and treat that talent with a lot of respect. That will help us in the future as we continue getting better and start needing final pieces here and there to make a good run.

[tobi0040]

HR & SB can easily be cut in half.  Just witness his pre and post all-star splits.  HR:  18/5; SB:  16/5.  Double down on those two fives and tell me about the defensive prowess of a 10/10 guy with a career .241 average.

 

By that logic, no player in the league would have a good contract.  Cut Mike Trout's numbers in half. 18 HR and 8 SB.  A .287 average.  His contract looks terrible.

 

Taken to the other extreme, double Dozier's first half and he has 36 HR and 32 SB.

 

At the end of the day, Dozier has averaged about an OPS of .740 the last two years, even with the low average.  That is a really, really good 2B.  The Twins could give him a 6 year deal and by my count only buy out two free agent years.  So rookie, Arb x 3, and FA x 2 would likely not be a huge outlay.  Something in the $40-45M range.  Another very reasonable deal for a good core player on a good team, like Hughes.

Edited December 23, 2014 by tobi0040

[Bark's Lounge]

Please accept my apologies if I repeat anything someone else has posted as that will probably be the case.

 

I love this move.

 

Yankees Spring Training circa 2007. I Distinctively recall Andy Pettitte, Jeter and some other Yankees at the time saying that this kid was going to be an Ace - I also recall Roger Clemens saying this, but maybe my memory is betraying me as he did not sign with the Yankees until the season was under way. Anyways, when guys of that stature, say those kind of things, whether you like or dislike them personally, it definitely grabs your attention and stays in the back of your mind.

 

Sure Hughes had his up and downs in the Bronx, mostly in their bandbox ballpark, and his shine was reduced to a dull or matte finish, but as a baseball fan watching from afar and considering his age, he appeared to be the poster boy for a change of scenery and I was really stoked that the Twins were able to sign him last offseason.

 

I look at Hughes as a #2 starter and a good argument can be made that he had a #1 type of starting season in 2014. I am doubtful that Hughes can better his BB/K% from 2014, but I can envision Hughes having better seasons. He's fairly young still and after the season he just had, I would have to believe his confidence is at an all-time high and that can lead to great things.

 

To me this is and will be the Twins best off season move. This is a great deal for the Twins and it is great that Hughes was the one who was the ignitor of this deal. Even though the business of baseball has become soulless the last 15-20 years, it still feels good as a fan of the Twins and resident of the Twin Cities that Hughes wants to be a part of this organization and community long term.

[kab21]

So, I'm gonna be the one naysayer.  I keep looking at his year to year stats and there's definitely a pattern:  Starting in 2010, it goes good year, bad year up to last seasons good year.  I also look at 2010 and 2012 and see those 2 years Hughes tossed his highest number of innings up to that time.  Last year, his highest number of innings to date.  In the previous down years, I believe he was injured.  I still think the Twins were foolish to continue starting Hughes [and Gibson] when the season was already lost, by a WIDE margin. 

 

I would have held off on an extension until the middle of the new season.  Sorry....

 

Here's a comment from Hughes that illustrates what I said earlier about this being the time to do an extension.  It's easy to say that they should do something at X time but it's very likely that wouldn't have been an option.  The concern is that the team would enter next offseason w/o an extension which essentially puts Hughes on the trade block instead of being a long term piece.

 

Hughes knows that he could have boosted his value even further by continuing on his previous deal, but he would have had “a little bit more of a struggle” in talking agent Nez Balelo into greenlighting an extension one year away from free agency.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

This is a great move. Here is what I commented on an entry in Justin Masterson in November:

 

"Nice analysis, Parker. I wouldn't mind a Masterson signing. But my priority list for money spent on the Twins rotation this winter would look like this, with #1 way out in front:

 

"1)Extend Hughes

2)Bring Liriano back

3)Sign Masterson"

 

Honestly, I was thinking maybe we could hope for 1 and 3. Instead, we got 1 and a higher target for #2 (I think, although let's wait a couple years to see who is more valuable between Liriano or Santana).

 

Thrilled. Kudos for Terry Ryan and Phil Hughes!

[DocBauer]

Personally, while a profound proponent for Plouffe, I believe the preferred and prudent move would be to see him perform in 2015 as he has this past season, since his price is still partially to pretty much controlled by the Twins for the next few seasons. No need to pull open the purse strings posthaste. A small parcel of patience.

 

Sano, you know, could complicate or simplify this scenario by the nature of his success this coming season. With sudden and great success he could force his way to immediate succession of the 3B position. Point of fact, should this performance push Plouffe off the hot corner, the Twins could still profit, without trade price proffered, simply by placing Plouffe in another potential position, such as a corner OF spot, which has already been proposed.

 

Dozier is a darling, and a dandy of a 2B and has proven not to be some dark horse candidate. There is no dilemma, I have no druthers, of extending him as I don't believe he is a candidate for digression. I dare say he hasn't even developed his full game yet. Waiting too long will only cause the Twins to delve deeper toward the bottom of their only so deep well to satisfy a decent and fair demand. There are damn few 2B like Dozier, and I think it would be dumb to wait too long to deal him in long term.

 

Santana was a singular, stealthy and shrewd signing of great significance for the upcoming seasons. Proving once again that our often subjugated and dismissed GM remains sly and sharp still. Compared to other market signing, he not only saved money, but practically stole Santana.

 

And we still want to call the FO stingy?

 

Now, the Hughes happening today was not only the highlight of my hectic day but also a heady move by the Twins that didn't come by happenstance. Whatever heavy burden or hefty horrors Hughes had a hard time dealing with in NY, he has handled himself handsomely and seems to finally have a full handle on his potential, no longer hidden.

 

Now, if only Nolasco, who I have nothing against, can avoid nagging nuisance injury, and just nail his normal career numbers, the Twins could have a nice trade chip for a team in need to net them at least a nominal return, while reducing payroll net for further investment.

 

This preferred option would open up a place in the rotation for one of the Twins proud prospect phenoms, May or Meyer, whoever is not currently performing already.

 

One more bright and beneficial move to acquire Bourjes from the Cardinals would banish the bungling of the CF position the past few seasons.

 

That's about as crystal clear on my convictions as I can be.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- finally Ryan does something that calms the waters.

[jokin]

Personally, while a profound proponent for Plouffe, I believe the preferred and prudent move would be to see him perform in 2015 as he has this past season, since his price is still partially to pretty much controlled by the Twins for the next few seasons. No need to pull open the purse strings posthaste. A small parcel of patience.

 

Sano, you know, could complicate or simplify this scenario by the nature of his success this coming season. With sudden and great success he could force his way to immediate succession of the 3B position. Point of fact, should this performance push Plouffe off the hot corner, the Twins could still profit, without trade price proffered, simply by placing Plouffe in another potential position, such as a corner OF spot, which has already been proposed.

 

Dozier is a darling, and a dandy of a 2B and has proven not to be some dark horse candidate. There is no dilemma, I have no druthers, of extending him as I don't believe he is a candidate for digression. I dare say he hasn't even developed his full game yet. Waiting too long will only cause the Twins to delve deeper toward the bottom of their only so deep well to satisfy a decent and fair demand. There are damn few 2B like Dozier, and I think it would be dumb to wait too long to deal him in long term.

 

Santana was a singular, stealthy and shrewd signing of great significance for the upcoming seasons. Proving once again that our often subjugated and dismissed GM remains sly and sharp still. Compared to other market signing, he not only saved money, but practically stole Santana.

 

And we still want to call the FO stingy?

 

Now, the Hughes happening today was not only the highlight of my hectic day but also a heady move by the Twins that didn't come by happenstance. Whatever heavy burden or hefty horrors Hughes had a hard time dealing with in NY, he has handled himself handsomely and seems to finally have a full handle on his potential, no longer hidden.

 

Now, if only Nolasco, who I have nothing against, can avoid nagging nuisance injury, and just nail his normal career numbers, the Twins could have a nice trade chip for a team in need to net them at least a nominal return, while reducing payroll net for further investment.

 

This preferred option would open up a place in the rotation for one of the Twins proud prospect phenoms, May or Meyer, whoever is not currently performing already.

 

One more bright and beneficial move to acquire Bourjes from the Cardinals would banish the bungling of the CF position the past few seasons.

 

That's about as crystal clear on my convictions as I can be.

 

A bouquet to your missive,  Mister Major-domo-Doc...  a bubbling Baueresque bravura display of brevity and alliterative bon mots.-

[Brock Beauchamp]

HR & SB can easily be cut in half.  Just witness his pre and post all-star splits.  HR:  18/5; SB:  16/5.  Double down on those two fives and tell me about the defensive prowess of a 10/10 guy with a career .241 average.

You're cherry-picking (not to mention that the second half of the MLB season is about 100 PAs shorter than the first half). Yeah, Dozier's power numbers slid - along with an accompanying slugging drop - but he actually posted a higher OBP (.352 vs. .340) in the second half and his overall OPS was still well above league average (.739 second half, .777 first half) due to the fact that he ripped 16 doubles in 283 PAs in the second half (compared to 17 2B in 424 PAs in the first half). It should also be noted that Dozier's best month came in August when he posted an .834 OPS while only hitting a single homerun.

 

And this is why we use the entire stat set to evaluate a player and not two data points, people... Unless you're intentionally trying to skew the argument to fit a predetermined narrative.

 

There are reasons to expect Dozier to not have another first half like he did in 2014... But we also wondered if he could repeat parts of his torrid 2013 campaign. He did. I think it's safe to say that at this point, Dozier is a .730-.770 second baseman who plays good defense and is a damned smart baserunner. That's worth a lot in today's game.

[tobi0040]

 I think it's safe to say that at this point, Dozier is a .730-.770 second baseman who plays good defense and is a damned smart baserunner. That's worth a lot in today's game.

 

I completely agree.  Dozier was 3rd in OPS among 2B.  #1 is a guy named Cano, under contract for $240M.  #2 was a young player that won a batting title, hit 47 doubles,  and stole 56 bases.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/2b/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true

Edited December 23, 2014 by tobi0040

[dxpavelka]

By that logic, no player in the league would have a good contract.  Cut Mike Trout's numbers in half. 18 HR and 8 SB.  A .287 average.  His contract looks terrible.

 

Taken to the other extreme, double Dozier's first half and he has 36 HR and 32 SB.

 

At the end of the day, Dozier has averaged about an OPS of .740 the last two years, even with the low average.  That is a really, really good 2B.  The Twins could give him a 6 year deal and by my count only buy out two free agent years.  So rookie, Arb x 3, and FA x 2 would likely not be a huge outlay.  Something in the $40-45M range.  Another very reasonable deal for a good core player on a good team, like Hughes.

Care to wager whether Dozier's number wind up closer to 36 & 32 than to 10 &10?  Was Trout's post all-star production less than a third of his pre all-star production? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Care to wager whether Dozier's number wind up closer to 36 & 32 than to 10 &10?  Was Trout's post all-star production less than a third of his pre all-star production? 

Again, you're using an extremely flawed system here.

 

Dozier pre-AS break: 424 PAs

 

Dozier post-AS break: 283 PAs

 

Not to mention that home runs and stolen bases are not the only way a player brings value. Why are you so stuck on Dozier's SB/HR total when there are so many other metrics out there that give a better indication of his performance?