How to Fix the Starting Rotation.

[chopper0080]

If you are asking me...my first phone call is to Anibal Sanchez. Under 30 power pitcher who doesn't seem to get run support. My second call is to Scott Baker, and I offer him a 1 year deal at a lower rate. My third call if we still have money to spend is to Shaun Marcum. Solid numbers pitching in a shoebox. Give him Target field and he gets a little better. You probably could sign all three of these guys to near what Hamels/Greinke will get on the open market.

 

It's not perfect, but it gives you Sanchez, Marcum, Diamond and Hendriks with Baker fighting for the 5th spot.

[Thrylos]

It's not perfect, but it gives you Sanchez, Marcum, Diamond and Hendriks with Baker fighting for the 5th spot.

And that would get you?

[jokin]

And that would get you?

A SP ERA at least 2.50 below where it is now?

[Thrylos]

A SP ERA at least 2.50 below where it is now?

and would that get you about 30 more wins or so to make the Twins competitive? Methinks not.

[jokin]

and would that get you about 30 more wins or so to make the Twins competitive? Methinks not.

I'd be tempted to attend more games, for one. Two, what's the Twins current record in one run games? Three, Twins run differential goes from -69 to +69+. Fourth, instead of a humiliatingly bad 32% QS ratio, how about one around or above 50%?

[stringer bell]

This season has shown us many things--1) Starting pitching is very important. 2) Other parts of the team can be patched with decent results and moderate expenditures (Carroll, Doumit and Willingham have done a good job filling out the lineup, the bullpen has been fine by only adding Burton and getting health from the back end). 4) A failed rotation mean non-contention.

 

Jack and everybody else is right, the team needs to rebuild their rotation. Only Diamond figures to be a lock for 2013 and he is not an ace. On the current roster, Duensing could be a starter if the Twins acquire another lefthander for the bullpen. I think that should be their fallback if some other options fail I think they need to absolutely acquire a starter at the trade deadline that would project being in the rotation by sometime next year. They need to sign a meaningful starter as a free agent and they need to get lucky with guys in their system. Perhaps there is a Diamond at New Britain or Rochester. Gibson will be almost two years out from TJ next year and Hendriks will get chances probably the rest of this year. I don't hold out hope of Hendriks being anything special, but it is possible that he will be functional. I don't think the Twins should touch Baker for anything resembling his option amount. I think Blackburn needs to be presented with the opportunity to win a spot, but not be guaranteed a spot.

[Rosterman]

I would just acquire a left handed starter and keep Duensing in the Bullpen. Baker will not take a one year deal when he has an option that would pay him more. He will see what multi-year deal someone else might offer before coming back to the Twins for a match. Who knows, he might not get one. But he is a good enough pitcher that I would offer him 2 years with a third option -- the question I throw out is how much?

[jokin]

This season has shown us many things--1) Starting pitching is very important. 2) Other parts of the team can be patched with decent results and moderate expenditures (Carroll, Doumit and Willingham have done a good job filling out the lineup, the bullpen has been fine by only adding Burton and getting health from the back end). 4) A failed rotation mean non-contention.

 

I think Blackburn needs to be presented with the opportunity to win a spot, but not be guaranteed a spot.

1) Yes.

2) Yes. Is there a website specializing in the Rule 5 draft?

3) I'd probably agree but point 3 is apparently missing?

4) What you see is what you get. It's obvious now that in the offseason and ST that the Twins "fixed" the easy problems, but you can't possibly start a season with 5 major question marks in the starting rotation; spending a little more ($10-$20 Mil) on one-year SP FA contracts would have entailed little risk and put the Twins in a position to compete in the short-term, even while they attempt to rebuild in the long-term.

 

Re: Blackburn. Given the $5.5 Mil owed next year, might addition by subtraction be a better option than having him on the starting fringes or in the bullpen next year?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I'd suggest the Twins sign C. Lewis. Gibson was on track to being a good #2 so I'd love if he could keep things on track after surgery. Most of the potential free agents pitchers are going to get overpaid, but we have to get at least one reliable pitcher through it. There is no quick fix and the Twins are going to have go with their bargain bin hunting for SPs again. I hate to say it, yet I have to. We are going to have to keep Liriano. Simply put, what we have for next year is no good and has no potential (Blackburn, Walters, Diamond, Hendriks,?). In addition to being awful, there's not enough players under contract. Someone has to be that question mark.

 

That said, this is the best I think it can get unless they pay Greinke.

1 Liriano

2 Lewis

3 Diamond

4 Blackburn

5 Walters

Hendriks and Gibson are both knocking as safety nets in this situation.

[glunn]

That said, this is the best I think it can get unless they pay Greinke.

1 Liriano

2 Lewis

3 Diamond

4 Blackburn

5 Walters

Hendriks and Gibson are both knocking as safety nets in this situation.

I suspect that the Twins will probably trade Liriano, although I am hoping that they will not do this unless he is pitching well and they can get a TOP starting pitching prospect in return.

 

I suspect that some other team will get Wilson.

 

Each of the rest of these will be lucky to be a decent #5 next year.

 

I wish that the Twins had drafted better starting pitchers in recent years. It will be difficult to acquire a potential #1 by trade. If this season continues to tank, then there will be another high pick next year. I pray that there is a great starter available in the first round (preferably a college guy who can move up fast) and that the scouting is as good as it can be in later rounds.

[CDog]

That said, this is the best I think it can get unless they pay Greinke.

1 Liriano

2 Lewis

3 Diamond

4 Blackburn

5 Walters

Hendriks and Gibson are both knocking as safety nets in this situation.

I think...or maybe I hope?...that both Hendriks and Gibson will be ahead of Walters by next year.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I suspect that some other team will get Wilson.

I really don't want to nitpick, but I believe you are confusing C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. Very close though good sir and I suspect it was just a slip.

[old nurse]

Unless the Twins dramatically overpay for a free agent, getting a number one starter is a pipe dream. The approach the Twins might have to take is finding an underperforming starter on another team and offer them trinkets to get them. The hope would be that that starter would turn into the Pavano of 2010, not 2012. If they are turning around their season with the Twins still not being contenders trade them at the trade deadline for a couple of stud prospects. Fixing the rotation long term lies in developing prospects. Injuries and bad trades (Garza) have derailed the recent hopes of developing a number one or two starter, but one still has to hold out some hope.

[BobH]

There have been some excellent comments in this thread.

In my opinion, the GM must decide first of all what his goal is ... to either try to keep fans in the seats in the short term, or build a team that will be very good in (hopefully) 2 or 3 years.

My preference would be to basically "clean house", and rebuild, watch youngsters compete and develop for a couple years.

If the decision is to just try to fill seats in the short term, that could go on for a long time.

[Brandon]

Fixing the rotation Trade a relief prospect and an OF prospect maybe Guerra or Slama and Tosoni or Benson at most and take on the rest of his salary for Saunders in AZ, This gives AZ 2 potentially useful players for the bench, saves them about 3-4 million, and allows them to bring up Bauer. This guy is a left handed Pavano that can throw 200 innings around a 4.00 era for around 6 million. Then there will be 2nd tier FA this offseason. Sign one of the following Lewis, Marcum, Sanchez. (7-10 million per year) for the last pitcher you can go dumpster diving. Milwood Baker or Pavano on incentive contract, and or others that are available. (2-3 million base) Along with Blackburn, Hendricks, Diamond, and eventually Gibson and Zimmer we would have a solid but not great rotation 1-6 or 7 withou breaking the bank

[StormJH1]

Fixing the rotation Trade a relief prospect and an OF prospect maybe Guerra or Slama and Tosoni or Benson at most and take on the rest of his salary for Saunders in AZ, This gives AZ 2 potentially useful players for the bench, saves them about 3-4 million, and allows them to bring up Bauer. This guy is a left handed Pavano that can throw 200 innings around a 4.00 era for around 6 million. Then there will be 2nd tier FA this offseason. Sign one of the following Lewis, Marcum, Sanchez. (7-10 million per year) for the last pitcher you can go dumpster diving. Milwood Baker or Pavano on incentive contract, and or others that are available. (2-3 million base) Along with Blackburn, Hendricks, Diamond, and eventually Gibson and Zimmer we would have a solid but not great rotation 1-6 or 7 withou breaking the bank

Hmmm, I dunno. Not much of a Saunders guy. The results recently look pretty good (and Arizona is somewhat of a hitter's park), but he's the definition of "pitch to contact", and he can get hit pretty hard. His WHIP is average at best for a guy who doesn't walk guys often. Move him to the AL and his ERA jumps back to the mid-4.00's, as it did when he was with the Angels. Not that that's bad, but he's not a #1 or #2 starter on any team.

 

Plus I just don't know how wise it is to give up any type of prospect for a 31-year-old middle of the rotation guy. Making $6 million this year, but I think he's still arbitration eligible next year. Tosoni has not value to me (or Arizona), but I wouldn't completely sell low on Benson right now, and Deolis Guerra is only 23 years old and may be reinventing himself as a reliever. His strikeout rate is decent, even if he's a bit inconsistent.

 

I just don't want us to get any older unless we're talking about an impact player will a few years of his prime left in return. You could put Joe Saunders on THIS team every 5th day for $6 million, and I don't think we'd be any appreciably better.

[zenser]

I agree that the Twins will not be in the running for a top tier starter. I do also agree that Anibel Sanchez, Shaun Marcum and possibly Brandon McCarthy could be had and would help the rotation. If everyone is looking at 2014 as they year when all the youngsters will be ready, we better start developing some pitching in the minors that will also be ready. By then Diamond, Hendriks and Gibson should be around but keep in mind, 2014 and 2015 could potentially be struggling years too as the younger position players adjust to life as a major leaguer. Look at KC and how they are struggling with Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, and the rest of their young core.

[Nick Nelson]

They also drafted in later rounds Berrios, Bard (he won't sign), Melotakis, Chargois, Jones, Duffey, and Martinez.

The master nails it again.

[chopper0080]

and would that get you about 30 more wins or so to make the Twins competitive? Methinks not.

This give us time, while also putting a competitive product on the field. It's not really likely for the Twins to make a total turn around in the offseason. What Sanchez and Marcum give us is quality pitchers who can keep us in games, hoping Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Plouffe can bang us in enough runs. Both of these guys can give us 3 quality years so develop Hendriks, Gibson and Wimmers, and improve our overall pitching depth.

[Fanatic Jack]

Nick,

 

Does Luke Bard solve the long term problems of the Twins starting rotation because that is what my article was about. Do you still want Liriano signed to a 3-year, $39 million deal after the 2010 season? The master indeed nails it again.

[Shane Wahl]

I am not sure how the Twins are going to roll out in April next year, but I can see the following by June 1:

 

Ryan Dempster (seriously, please . . . if the Twins refuse to sign long term deals of more than 3 years, they should sign Dempster for 2 and an option)

Kyle Gibson

Liam Hendriks

Scott Diamond

David Bromberg

 

And I think this will be a starting rotation superior to that which has been played out through this season. Yes, this means that Nick Blackburn either becomes the long reliever or is released because he is terrible. Or maybe they make him in to a Burnett-esque role and just deal with the overpaying of such a middle reliever who probably would be more effective there than in the starting rotation. God, he is terrible. And yes, that means Liriano, Pavano, and Baker are gone. Hopefully the first two can be traded at the deadline this year. Baker will just be lost.

 

Now maybe in trading the likes of Liriano, Capps, Doumit, Pavano (hopefully) and Casilla (hopefully) individually or in various packages will bring back some bonafide starter or AA/AAA prospect. That would shake things up. I do think the above rotation could get the job done for 2013, which is to develop into a .500+ team.

[TJ710]

Jack, I believe Nick was referring to your prediction that Bard wont sign. He was drafted higher than expected and doesn't have much to gain and possibly a lot to lose by going back for his senior season.

[glunn]

Jack, I believe Nick was referring to your prediction that Bard wont sign. He was drafted higher than expected and doesn't have much to gain and possibly a lot to lose by going back for his senior season.

I hope that the Twins make him a very appealing offer, to keep faith with us fans.

[TJ710]

They no doubt will. There is zero incentive to get him signed right away. He's still rehabbing and won't be on the mound til mid to late July at the earliest (from what I hear). As long as they are happy with the direction of his rehab, they have no reason to rush to sign him. And I doubt the Bard camp is in a hurry either. If they take it to the deadline and the Twins have extra pool money left over it gives them more leverage to push for an above slot deal. There was exactly 1 college senior drafted in the first round this year. Going back for your senior season is about the last thing a high college draft pick wants to do.

[SweetOne69]

and would that get you about 30 more wins or so to make the Twins competitive? Methinks not.

I think a SP ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 would definitely produce 30 more wins provided we have the offense to go with it. A sub 4 ERA would put the SP in the to 10 of Baseball (Top 4 in AL).

[SweetOne69]

I would just acquire a left handed starter and keep Duensing in the Bullpen. Baker will not take a one year deal when he has an option that would pay him more. He will see what multi-year deal someone else might offer before coming back to the Twins for a match. Who knows, he might not get one. But he is a good enough pitcher that I would offer him 2 years with a third option -- the question I throw out is how much?

I think Baker is going to have to settle for a 1 year "prove he's healthy" incentive laden offer next year. My guess is his base salary is going to be between 1-3M with 5+M in incentives.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Baker is going to have to settle for a 1 year "prove he's healthy" incentive laden offer next year. My guess is his base salary is going to be between 1-3M with 5+M in incentives.

Yeah, I think there's virtually a zero chance that Baker will get anything more than a one year, incentive-laden contract.

[DaveW]

Dempster is not the answer and would get destroyed in the AL, plus some team will over pay for him for 2-3 years.

[Nick Nelson]

I hope that the Twins make him a very appealing offer, to keep faith with us fans.

Bard signed yesterday.