Article: TD Mailbag: Center Field, Meyer's Role and More

[Nick Nelson]

Earlier this week we put out a call on the forum and on Twitter for mailbag questions. You guys came through in a major way. So many great submissions. We've grabbed a bunch of them to feature below.

 

Let's get to it:TD Member Boom Boom:

Should the Twins look to bring in a CF, or should they stand pat with Hicks and/or Schafer?

 

I'd be fine rolling with those two. Hopefully Paul Molitor is open to the idea of platooning, because using Hicks against lefties and Schafer against righties would maximize both their strengths. Even then, that duo might not be anything special offensively, but they'll provide solid defense at least, and Byron Buxton might only be a year away.

 

Plus, maybe Hicks goes on a nice roll, regains confidence in swinging from both sides and turns into an everyday player. With his patience and defensive prowess, he only needs to hit a little bit to be a valuable starter. I haven't given up on him by any means.

 

TD Member gunnarthor:

Assuming there isn't a spot in the rotation for him right away, should Meyer pitch in the pen or as a starter in AAA?

 

Bullpen. Send him on the Francisco Liriano and Johan Santana path. He can get his first taste of big-league hitters by unleashing his best stuff during short stints, then once someone inevitably gets hurt or needs to be replaced, the Twins can stretch him out and let him step in. There's a lot of benefit to keeping Meyer's innings in check early in the season, since he'll be on a workload limit once again.

 

TD Member goulik:

What type of influence do you see Hunter having on Hicks developing into the outfielder he should have become by now and also on Buxton? Has he ever been given credit with mentoring younger players or are we expecting too much from that part of this signing?

 

Hunter has a well known rep in that department. He's been credited with helping mentor Mike Trout into the big leagues, and that's a pretty nice notch in the belt. I don't think he's going to directly affect how they play -- he can't teach Hicks to hit left-handed or Buxton to stay healthy -- but if Hunter can make a highly stressful environment a little more comfortable and manageable for them, there's value in that.

 

TD Member Bark's Lounge:

What's the deal with Ricky Nolasco? Did he hide his arm injury last season? Is he a subversive type of player? I don't put too much into his semi-controversial comment on Twitter, but when we throw all of this material into the whole enchilada, did the Twins make a grave mistake in signing him or is there still reason to believe he can be a part of the solution and we can continue to toss pennies and nickles into the Ricky Nolasco Wishing Well?

 

There was a combination of factors at play. He was facing tougher lineups with designated hitters. He endured some bad luck, finishing with a 4.30 FIP and 3.97 xFIP that belied his bloated ERA. And yeah, he was probably pitching through some pain.

 

He's now had a full season to acclimate to playing here, and an offseason to rest up and get himself right physically. I'm confident he'll have a much better year. If he doesn't, it'd put the Twins in a pretty tough position.

 

TD Member jay:

With the addition of a corner outfielder and a starting pitcher so far this offseason, what's the biggest remaining need? How should they address that need?

 

To be honest, I don't see much left to cover. You could make a case for a stopgap in center field, but as mentioned above, that can be covered internally. The rotation is full and the starting lineup is set. They've got a good utility guy in Eduardo Escobar and a backup catcher in Josmil Pinto (I guess?). The bullpen might be facing a squeeze, if anything.

 

TD Member TRex:

What are the best and worst case scenarios for Mike Pelfrey this year, and what percentages would you put on each.

 

Best case, he goes to the bullpen, ratchets up the heater and becomes a potent late-inning weapon. Worst case, he's a sub-mediocre "innings-eater" in the rotation, blocking a younger player from gaining experience. It's really hard to see how he benefits the Twins as a starter at this point.

 

@MrNewBrighton on Twitter

Not going to ask about pitching, lets talk homers. Who leads #MNTwins in home runs in 2015? How many? #IGotArciaW/33

 

Oswaldo Arcia would be the odds-on favorite, I think. Brian Dozier and Kennys Vargas are also candidates. But I'm going to go with Trevor Plouffe.

 

@CreaAlex on Twitter

does JR Graham stick the whole season? #TDMailbag

 

It's more likely that they work out a trade to keep him in the minors if they like what they see. I don't know how you take a guy who hasn't pitched above Double-A, and has barely pitched in relief, and throw him in a major-league bullpen.

 

TD Member OTwins:

Terry Ryan has mentioned adding to the bullpen. Which reliever of the remaining free agents would be of interest? Or do you think they wait for a "good deal"

 

I don't see a need to add to the bullpen from outside. They've got a good core in place with Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar. Meyer and Pelfrey could both slot in as hard-throwing righties. Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Ryan Pressly and Lester Oliveros are all prospects who pitched well in the minors and got a taste of the majors this past season. Nick Burdi should be ready very soon and might be better than any of them. I say roll with what's on hand.

 

TD Member clutchhittin18:

What is the long term plan for Pinto? With Mauer manning first base, and assuming Vargas continues to hit well, he seems to be the odd man out. And with a couple solid catchers a year or two away, do the Twins try to move him?

 

Pinto's bat is MLB-ready, and it was a year ago, which the Twins basically acknowledged by bringing him north at the end of camp. There's no path to regular playing time for him here though. I guess they now view him as Suzuki's backup, but as an offense-oriented guy he's certainly not a prototypical No. 2 catcher for this team. I've got to think they're shopping him.

 

@reinersandassoc on Twitter

2015 opening day lineup?

 

I'll go with:

 

Santana, SS

Dozier, 2B

Mauer, 1B

Vargas, DH

Hunter, RF

Arcia, LF

Plouffe, 3B

Suzuki, C

Hicks, CF

 

Not too shabby, really.

 

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[SarasotaBill]

There's no doubt that Meyer will be in the starting rotation if he's in AAA.

 

They can limit his pitch count to save him for the full year.

[big dog]

"Plus, maybe Hicks goes on a nice roll, regains confidence in swinging from both sides and turns into an everyday player. With his patience and defensive prowess, he only needs to hit a little bit to be a valuable starter. I haven't given up on him by any means."

 

I really hope this is true, and I believe it could happen.  However, reading it reminded me of the Calvin and Hobbes strip where Suzie Derkins is sitting alone, sad, saying she wished Calvin wasn't so mean to here and she wished he would play with her.  Then she made a face and said "while I'm at it, I might as well wish for a pony".

 

Here's hoping there's a pony under the Twins' tree.

[lightfoot789]

In connection with the Hunter question: 

I'm hoping that Walker gets an invite to the MLB camp so that he can receive some insight from the likes of Torri Hunter out in RF.  I think Kepler will benefit just as well.

 

It has been noted that Walker has contact issues, but it is also noted that he takes first pitch strikes and runs counts to 3-2 quite often.  Maybe the likes of a Hunter could get him to stay agressive and understand how pitchers might pitch a guy with his skill set at the big league level.  I think the new coaches and manager along with Hunter will provide some major upgrades this year offensively as well as defensively.  New voices sometimes bring new results.

[markos]

I am surprised that Nick has Vargas penciled in as the cleanup hitter. My personal thought is that Plouffe and Arcia will both out-hit Vargas next season. Plouffe batting 7th seems way too low for me. I'm not very bullish on Vargas right now. He had a good few weeks, but then struggled to end the season. Despite having several holes in his game, lots of people (front office included) seem to have his name carved in for the DH/clean-up position for 2015. He definitely has the potential to be a solid contributor, but right now his seems like the most likely player to struggle to start the season and get sent down to AAA for more work. 

[brvama]

Good questions and answers. Thanks ya'll.

 

Nick I tend to agree with your take on the Twins position going into spring training. Let's see what we've got and roll from there.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

@CreaAlex on Twitter

does JR Graham stick the whole season? #TDMailbag

It's more likely that they work out a trade to keep him in the minors if they like what they see. I don't know how you take a guy who hasn't pitched above Double-A, and has barely pitched in relief, and throw him in a major-league bullpen.

 

Though they did do that with Ryan Pressly two years ago. My thought is the Braves would prefer to get him back and they wouldn't be able to work out a trade. My assumption is if he doesn't make the team, he is lost. But, who knows.

[Otto von Ballpark]

@CreaAlex on Twitter

does JR Graham stick the whole season? #TDMailbag

 

It's more likely that they work out a trade to keep him in the minors if they like what they see. I don't know how you take a guy who hasn't pitched above Double-A, and has barely pitched in relief, and throw him in a major-league bullpen.

Ryan Pressly hadn't pitched above AA, and had marginally more bullpen appearances than Graham at the time of his selection (about 1.5 more months worth).  Pressly was also a year younger and less effective/regarded during his amateur and minor league careers.

 

Plus, there will be innings to soak up at the back end of the bullpen, with Swarzak, Deduno, various AAA starters, etc. all gone.

 

I think Graham's health and ongoing recovery are going to be the bigger factors than his minor league level or bullpen experience.

[Nick Nelson]

Pressly had at least made a successful transition to pitching in relief, albeit in a short stint at Double-A, and had also pitched extremely well in the Arizona Fall League.

 

Graham got crushed -- CRUSHED -- after moving to the bullpen last year in Double-A. I know he had some shoulder problems, but still, I can't see them giving him a bullpen spot over numerous candidates who've done a lot more to deserve it, especially when they seem to be shifting their focus more to fielding a competitive team.

[Brandon]

I am surprised that Nick has Vargas penciled in as the cleanup hitter. My personal thought is that Plouffe and Arcia will both out-hit Vargas next season. Plouffe batting 7th seems way too low for me. I'm not very bullish on Vargas right now. He had a good few weeks, but then struggled to end the season. Despite having several holes in his game, lots of people (front office included) seem to have his name carved in for the DH/clean-up position for 2015. He definitely has the potential to be a solid contributor, but right now his seems like the most likely player to struggle to start the season and get sent down to AAA for more work. 

This is why I am surprised the both Parmelee and Colabello were let go last season.  That leaves Pinto as the only available bat to DH consistently if Vargas fails and needs more time in AAA.  With Parmelee, Hunter could slide in and DH some with Parmalee in RF.  maybe Sano is ready after 6 weeks in this scenario....

 

On Hunter he can also light a fire and stay on Hicks to be better and not let up. In addition to making a better environment to succeed. 

 

Back to Vargas, I do think he has shown enough bat control to be the clean up hitter over Arcia at this point.  Plouffe or Hunter could hit there if they prefer a veteran in that spot.

 

If TR says he is looking for bullpen help then he is looking for bullpen help.  I think he is looking for a low cost bullpen piece and not a specific player.  If he was looking for a player he would have signed Neshek as the 2 year deal he got isn't prohibitive as its only 2 years.  Neshek probably would have signed here since its close to home all things being equal.  He probably would have given a small discount to come back. So that tells me TR is watching Pohlads pennines and is going to go after more depth and let them all sort it out in spring training.  I do not think Meyer will start the season in the pen.  The Twins have stated several times he doesn't have the resilience for the role. 

[jokin]

This is why I am surprised the both Parmelee and Colabello were let go last season.  That leaves Pinto as the only available bat to DH consistently if Vargas fails and needs more time in AAA.  With Parmelee, Hunter could slide in and DH some with Parmalee in RF.  maybe Sano is ready after 6 weeks in this scenario....

 

On Hunter he can also light a fire and stay on Hicks to be better and not let up. In addition to making a better environment to succeed. 

 

Back to Vargas, I do think he has shown enough bat control to be the clean up hitter over Arcia at this point.  Plouffe or Hunter could hit there if they prefer a veteran in that spot.

 

I've been predicting they end up with Hunter in the clean-up spot.  The first 3 spots look clearly taken, is there any way your big off-season FA signing is moved down to the 5, 6 or 7 spot in the order?  Nope.

 

The only way Vargas gets the clean-up spot, is if Santana is moved down into the 9-hole, with Hunter batting 2nd.

Edited December 17, 2014 by jokin

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can't see them giving him a bullpen spot over numerous candidates who've done a lot more to deserve it, especially when they seem to be shifting their focus more to fielding a competitive team.

I don't know -- they've cleared a lot of back-end bullpen types lately, and they usually keep one or more of those guys around even in competitive seasons.

 

Who really fits that role on the current 40-man?  Darnell is the primary one I see -- not sure about their plans for him.  A lot of the other 40-man options are either short relievers or may have too much value as starters to waste in that role (Milone, May, Meyer).

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is why I am surprised the both Parmelee and Colabello were let go last season.  That leaves Pinto as the only available bat to DH consistently if Vargas fails and needs more time in AAA.

What's wrong with Pinto as backup DH?

 

DH options with OPS+ figures around 90 aren't really good DH options.

[jokin]

I don't know -- they've cleared a lot of back-end bullpen types lately, and they usually keep one or more of those guys around even in competitive seasons.

 

Who really fits that role on the current 40-man?  Darnell is the primary one I see -- not sure about their plans for him.  A lot of the other 40-man options are either short relievers or may have too much value as starters to waste in that role (Milone, May, Meyer).

 

Would they abruptly move Darnell out in one year from LHSP depth to becoming merely a LOOGY? (Even if his numbers scream that as his ceiling).

[jokin]

What's wrong with Pinto as backup DH?

 

DH options with OPS+ figures around 90 aren't really good DH options.

 

Back-up DH?  The Twins can clearly go a different route than that.

 

It sure seems that Hunter (2014 OPS+ 111) is destined for at least 35-45 games at DH if they want him to play close to 150 games.  Mauer (OPS+ 107) had 19 DH games last year... seems safe to say he'll get at least that and maybe up to 30 in all.  That leaves 100 games or so for Vargas (OPS+ 115), Pinto (OPS+ 98) or maybe Arcia (OPS+ 108) to pick up, combined.

 

Pinto would clearly be the worst choice of the bunch.  

Edited December 17, 2014 by jokin

[ashbury]

@reinersandassoc on Twitter

2015 opening day lineup?

 

I'll go with:

 

Santana, SS

Dozier, 2B

Mauer, 1B

Vargas, DH

Hunter, RF

Arcia, LF

Plouffe, 3B

Suzuki, C

Hicks, CF

 

Not too shabby, really.

 

This is basically the exact batting order for the final game of the season in Detroit, shut out by Price and the bullpen.  Guess where we start the season next April, and against what likely starter?   Do Hunter, Plouffe, Suzuki in place of Pinto, Escobar and Herrmann change the outcome?

[stringer bell]

I promised myself that I was done commenting about Aaron Hicks, but I just can't help myself.  Being charitable, Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014.  He displays commendable tools, but so far his performance has not been of major league quality.  Hicks is 25 years old, and I still consider him a prospect, but after his performances of the past two years, Hicks needs to go back to the minor leagues.  His pattern had been to struggle at a level, return and master that level.  Hicks skipped Triple A and twice has failed to master big league pitching.  He has performed well in the spring, only to struggle when the games count.  It makes no sense to start him with the Twins in 2015, both for the team and the player and spring training can't serve as a measuring stick of his readiness, as evidenced by the last two years. 

 

As mentioned, Hicks has nice tools, but none of them are game-changing and his hit tool hasn't developed to play at the highest level.  He isn't going to change many games with his speed and his defense isn't as good as advertised. 

 

Nick is certainly closer to the Twins' decision makers than I am and perhaps he has indications that Hicks will be the starting center fielder.  I can't imagine that they would keep Hicks in the majors to be a RH half of a platoon, starting less than 30% of games. 

[jokin]

I am surprised that Nick has Vargas penciled in as the cleanup hitter. My personal thought is that Plouffe and Arcia will both out-hit Vargas next season. Plouffe batting 7th seems way too low for me. I'm not very bullish on Vargas right now. He had a good few weeks, but then struggled to end the season.

 

I've been predicting they end up with Hunter in the clean-up spot.  The first 3 spots look clearly taken, is there any way your big off-season FA signing is moved down to the 5, 6 or 7 spot in the order?  Nope.

 

The only way Vargas gets the clean-up spot, is if Santana is moved down into the 9-hole, with Hunter batting 2nd.

 

The reporters are reading the TD threads...

 

Paul Molitor, overheard on KSTP TV regarding Hunter's potential spot in the order (paraphrased):

 

"I can envision Torii batting 2nd in the order, as he did in Detroit, in certain situations, he did very well there... I can also see him batting clean-up in other scenarios..."

Edited December 18, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

I promised myself that I was done commenting about Aaron Hicks, but I just can't help myself.  Being charitable, Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014.  He displays commendable tools, but so far his performance has not been of major league quality.  Hicks is 25 years old, and I still consider him a prospect, but after his performances of the past two years, Hicks needs to go back to the minor leagues.  His pattern had been to struggle at a level, return and master that level.  Hicks skipped Triple A and twice has failed to master big league pitching.  He has performed well in the spring, only to struggle when the games count.  It makes no sense to start him with the Twins in 2015, both for the team and the player and spring training can't serve as a measuring stick of his readiness, as evidenced by the last two years. 

 

As mentioned, Hicks has nice tools, but none of them are game-changing and his hit tool hasn't developed to play at the highest level.  He isn't going to change many games with his speed and his defense isn't as good as advertised. 

 

Nick is certainly closer to the Twins' decision makers than I am and perhaps he has indications that Hicks will be the starting center fielder.  I can't imagine that they would keep Hicks in the majors to be a RH half of a platoon, starting less than 30% of games. 

 

But then, how does Torii mentor, and "light a fire" under him if he's a thousand miles away in Rochester? /sarc

 

(I agree, it's likely not going to happen, but Hicks should definitely start out the season in Rochester... a full-time upgrade or a short-term platoon with Schafer and somebody else, would make more sense, let Hicks insinuate himself into the situation of being the "Plan B" solution instead of the "Plan A" disaster he's been the last two seasons).

[Mike Sixel]

Torii batting 2nd? Where does Mauer hit? First?

[SwainZag]

Interesting questions fellas!

 

I do think a Hicks/Schafer platoon would be beneficial.  If Hicks can play an average, or above-average CF hitting in the 9 spot in the order, what would he have to hit for the members of this board not to have his head on a platter after a month?  Hicks hitting 9th in this order is a lot less of a burden than him hitting leadoff two seasons ago.  Would .235/.360/.350 do it?

 

If Meyer doesn't win a spot in the rotation I would also much like to see him in the bullpen rather than starting in AAA, especially if he will be on an innings count again this year.

 

As for leading the team in HR, I gotta go with Arcia.  I think it's his breakout year and I will go with 36 HR.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's a little outside the box, but a Schafer/Hicks platoon in CF might be ok, with the off day guy used as a late inning pinch runner / outfield substitution. If Hunter has lost as much jump and speed on the bases as in the field, then I'm not sure about him batting at the top. Let this not be the year he also loses his bat speed

[highlander]

Being an avid Hicks fan I would like to see him earn the everyday CF job. Not sold on Schafer.  Meyers has to make the big club.  It's sink or swim time.  When is Meyers going to NOT be limited in innings pitched?  I like the Nolan Ryan philosophy of stretching the pitchers out from the minors on up.  I also need to see something from Mays on the big club.  Pinto for a prosect not the proverbial bag of balls!

[laloesch]

Interesting questions fellas!

 

I do think a Hicks/Schafer platoon would be beneficial.  If Hicks can play an average, or above-average CF hitting in the 9 spot in the order, what would he have to hit for the members of this board not to have his head on a platter after a month?  Hicks hitting 9th in this order is a lot less of a burden than him hitting leadoff two seasons ago.  Would .235/.360/.350 do it?

 

If Meyer doesn't win a spot in the rotation I would also much like to see him in the bullpen rather than starting in AAA, especially if he will be on an innings count again this year.

 

As for leading the team in HR, I gotta go with Arcia.  I think it's his breakout year and I will go with 36 HR.

 

I'd much rather see the Twins keep Meyer in AAA as a starter than plopping him in the bullpen where he'll get used sporadically.  He's only pitched 1 season at AAA and by all accounts his off speed stuff needs a lot more work.  Why not keep him in the role he was traded for and work on that in Rochester?  People keep mentioning the Santana example as a route to follow with Meyer, but they forget that Johan was a rule IV pickup.      

[TheLeviathan]

People....Hicks is not a good defensive centerfielder.  His "prowess" is average at best.  If we're going to field a guy in CF that can barely hit .200....can we at least get a dude that covers ground like a madman?

[SwainZag]

I'd much rather see the Twins keep Meyer in AAA as a starter than plopping him in the bullpen where he'll get used sporadically.  He's only pitched 1 season at AAA and by all accounts his off speed stuff needs a lot more work.  Why not keep him in the role he was traded for and work on that in Rochester?  People keep mentioning the Santana example as a route to follow with Meyer, but they forget that Johan was a rule IV pickup.      

 

Johan had also never pitched above A ball when the Twins took him in the Rule V, not IV draft.  He also pitched more out of the pen for 4 seasons than he did as a starter before making the jump.  

 

He wouldn't be the first pitcher to get his feet wet in the pen before jumping to the rotation.

[TwinsCD]

Interesting questions fellas!

 

I do think a Hicks/Schafer platoon would be beneficial.  If Hicks can play an average, or above-average CF hitting in the 9 spot in the order, what would he have to hit for the members of this board not to have his head on a platter after a month?  Hicks hitting 9th in this order is a lot less of a burden than him hitting leadoff two seasons ago.  Would .235/.360/.350 do it?

 

If Meyer doesn't win a spot in the rotation I would also much like to see him in the bullpen rather than starting in AAA, especially if he will be on an innings count again this year.

 

As for leading the team in HR, I gotta go with Arcia.  I think it's his breakout year and I will go with 36 HR.

 

If a Twins player hits 36 HR, I might eat my hat.  Only way that's going to happen is if most of the damage is done on the road...or the Dome is miraculously rebuilt.  We do remember that Target Field is where Twins homers go to die, right?

 

I will have the pepper ready in preparation if I'm wrong (hat already has enough salt on it....I know...ewwwwww).

[laloesch]

Johan had also never pitched above A ball when the Twins took him in the Rule V, not IV draft.  He also pitched more out of the pen for 4 seasons than he did as a starter before making the jump.  

 

He wouldn't be the first pitcher to get his feet wet in the pen before jumping to the rotation.

 

My mistake on the rule IV vs. V typo.  The only thing with Santana was that by the time he joined the Twins as a major leaguer in 2000 he was 21 years old.  When he turned 25 he had already completed the transition to full time starter and WON 20 games in 2004.  

 

Meyer will be 25 in January.  Do the Twins really want in the bullpen at his age?  I still think the better path would be to make the team as the fifth starter (assuming he earns it) or pitch in Rochester as starter until there is an opening.  

[kab21]

I'm not a fan of starting someone with shoulder issues in the bullpen early in the season and then moving him to the rotation later in the season.  Yes, it keeps his innings down but it also could potentially mess up his shoulder when he needs to be stretched out midseason. 

 

Start him a week or two late in AAA, limit his starts to 80 pitches early in the season and call him up in May/June when the inevitable injury happens.