Kiley on Twins stuff / prospects

[Mike Sixel]

From today's fangraphs chat....with their prospects person.....

 

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
I'm tired of waiting on Kepler. Does he ever break out?

Kiley McDaniel
He would've been a junior in college this year and he grew up in Germany as the son of two ballet dancers. He didn't play baseball regularly until he was close to 18. He'll be in AA next year. You are the problem.

 

Comment From Ceej
People are starting to talk that a healthy Sano could be rushed like Baez was. From a developmental standpoint, how does rushing a hitter along affect them?

Kiley McDaniel
Wrote about that topic: 

The short version is being rushed means you aren't ready for advanced stuff/command, hitter gets overmatched, gets into bad habits to try to figure out a way to survive and those habits can hang around for years. Can be career-ending type stuff or could just last a month until he finds a good hitting coach in AAA.

 

Jake Reed has been a pleasant surprise.

[Seth Stohs]

Great responses. That's typically my response when people ask me about Max Kepler too... he's so talented and so young and still raw. he's doing just fine.

 

And, he brings up great points on Sano and generally rushing players... 

[old nurse]

In regards to the term of rushing players . You can call it rushing when a player does not spend much, if any,  time in AA.A Hicks would be the prime example most cited here. Vargas certainly did ok without spending much time even in AA. I would think a player that would be called rushed had trouble adjusting to the pitching.  Hicks had a 16% BB% last year when the league average was 7.6%  Hicks would appear to have an idea where the ball is going but can't match the eye withhands and bat to the mlb pitch. I don't know if AAA can fix that. I do not know what is wrong, but being in the minors for 2013 did not change anything. I do not think then that Hicks was rushed.

[gunnarthor]

On Kepler, the last fangraphs prospect guy had a similar view on him but cautioned he needed a lot of at bats.  Fortunately, the Twins seem to get that. They sent him to the AFL twice and are getting him tons of ABs.  And they are a patient organization - look how long it took Plouffe to figure things out.

[jorgenswest]

Many players come up to the majors and struggle. That doesn't mean they were rushed. Arcia has shown he can hit AA/AAA pitching. He wasn't rushed. He is struggling to learn how to hit major league pitching.

 

Hicks, on the other hand, has never dominated a level. The need for a CF rushed him and somewhere on the path he lost any power he had in his swing. I am not sure he can get it back and I am not sure he has the make up to deal with struggle. I hope Hunter can help with the make up and preparation. Hunter knows what it was to struggle when he arrived and how to work through it.

 

If any player shows dominance at a level over a half season, moving them up is not rushing. If any of Sano, Rosario or Buxton dominate into June this year, it is time to make space and let them begin the struggle with major league pitching.

[kab21]

In regards to the term of rushing players . You can call it rushing when a player does not spend much, if any,  time in AA.A Hicks would be the prime example most cited here. Vargas certainly did ok without spending much time even in AA. I would think a player that would be called rushed had trouble adjusting to the pitching.  Hicks had a 16% BB% last year when the league average was 7.6%  Hicks would appear to have an idea where the ball is going but can't match the eye withhands and bat to the mlb pitch. I don't know if AAA can fix that. I do not know what is wrong, but being in the minors for 2013 did not change anything. I do not think then that Hicks was rushed.

 

 

Vargas did OK if you just look at OPS but his plate discipline was awful in the majors.  Going into next season he looks like a prime candidate for a big sophomore slump. 

 

There is no planet that Hicks did OK on last year or the year before.  He is getting a lot of walks like a little leaguer gets walks.  He takes a lot of pitches and weakly fouls balls off.  He simply hasn't made a lot of hard contact.  In Hicks case he wasn't rushed since he played a lot of AA ball though.

 

Arcia is actually an example of someone that has been rushed and is comparable to Sano if Sano is up early next year.  Arcia crushed all minor league pitching but he didn't spend a lot of time hitting against the top AA/AAA pitchers and didn't see pitchers with legitimately good MLB stuff.  His raw skill was enough to dominate the 80% (WAG) of pitchers that are never going to the big leagues.  Sano's raw skill will likely allow him to dominate AA/AAA immediately.  But that doesn't mean that he should be called up after 2 months of impressive stats. 

[Rosterman]

People forget that Kepler came from Germany as a 16-year-old. The Twins may need to work on him alot, similar to Plouffe, who was drafted as a raw shortstop at 18. You can take too much time, and time is running out for Kepler. Come 2017 he might start being out of options, so he has to get a taste of the majors in 2016, and if possible, a cup of coffee next season jsut so he sees what he has to adjust to.

 

Rushing a player happens on two occasions...fielding and batting. You throw a guy in a position and he has to learn or be able to immediately follow field placement. As a batter he has to suddenly realize that there is film and talk and everything about everything you do. You have to trust coaches, and coaches also have to know the player backwards and forwards. You can get by with so much natural talent, then you have to make adjustments. Kenny Vargas has to make some major adjustments. Oswaldo Arcia seems to make adjustments, then returns to what he likes to do...then goes to the minors and comes back and listens. Santana was far from perfect, he pretty much got a hit or struck out, it seemed. 

 

The coaches are there to help you along. You can listen or not.

 

On a side note, speaking of coaches, LaTroy Hawkins was on MLB and did a kind shout-out to Tom Kelly who basically told him "you can go to the bullpen and help this team and adjust and probably pitch in the majors for a long time, or if you want to start we will send you back to AAA."

 

We forget that LaTroy was originally a horrible starter (and not a much better closer). Everyday Eddie was a starter. Glen Perkins wanted to start. Heck, Frankie Rodriguez wanted to start because they made the money, relievers didn't. But being in the majors is being in the majors.

 

Right now Twins prospects have to see that there are opening in both batting and pitching. And that there are guys riding your tail, one-yer or so behind. You have to step up your game and play. Otherwise, you are showed the door like Swarzak and Parmelee, both talented guys, but replaceable. A team is happy to allow you to grow and adjust thru the minor leagues and not push you, but once you turn 25-26-27, you are now competing with guys who are 30 and want to stay in the majors and kids who are 23-24 who might just have the same drive and equal talent, but are cheaper and will listen.

 

I would love to see a discussion on the different ways major league teams operate. It seems there are always prospects that can't adapt to the way one system is run, but do well in another. Is it the whole system, from low minors to majors, or just the coaching staff at the major league level.

 

And, back to the top, give Kepler a break. Although he is one of those guys that if he does flourish this year in the minors, he can be one of those prospects you use as a trade piece rather than gamble on finding a major league home for him yourself. Or, he can be another Hein Robb or Loek Van Mil...the foreigner in the strange land who just didn't make it...given every chance in the world, but United States baseball is a whole new game!

[Mike Sixel]

I'd love the Twins to move starters to RP sooner.......plenty of guys in AA or AAA that will NEVER be a starter in the majors (for more than a game or two)......but who might be RP.

[nicksaviking]

From today's fangraphs chat....with their prospects person.....

 

Comment From Bobby Blownilla

I'm tired of waiting on Kepler. Does he ever break out?

Kiley McDaniel

He would've been a junior in college this year and he grew up in Germany as the son of two ballet dancers. He didn't play baseball regularly until he was close to 18. He'll be in AA next year. You are the problem.

 

Good Lord, did Keith Law take over Kiley's chat? 

 

Some of these guys really don't like the people who follow them.  If you can't handle a fairly mild negative question, don't answer it, or don't host a chat altogether.  I'm just fine reading you're unadulterated articles and assesments instead.

[nicksaviking]

I'd love the Twins to move starters to RP sooner.......plenty of guys in AA or AAA that will NEVER be a starter in the majors (for more than a game or two)......but who might be RP.

 

Agreed.  Knowing how to master only two pitches instead of three or four should really cut the learning curve down.

 

Though for me, that only goes for guys who have minimal upside as starters anyway like Summers, Boyd or Melotakis.  A guy like Cederoth who can still bring upper 90's velocity as a starter I'll give a longer leash to.