Article: What To Expect From Ervin Santana

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins appear to be on the verge of announcing the signing of 32-year-old Ervin Santana.

 

Once he passes his physical, he will be a Twin for the next four years, for better or worse.

 

If you are looking his recent track record, you may find similarities in his numbers to those of Twins' pitcher Ricky Nolasco in that same time span. Behind the pile of numbers is a slightly different story for Santana. After the dreadful 2012, over the past two seasons he has been an above average pitcher.

 

Here is why this is a good trend.Like rock music’s Santana, Ervin’s delivery is now Smooth

 

In 2012, Santana was a mess. His velocity was down, his command had escaped him and opponents were dropping dingers all over place (he allowed an MLB-high 39 home runs).

 

While with the Angels, manager Mike Scioscia questioned whether Santana could maintain a consistent release point and often found his mechanics erratic. Whether his mechanics played a role, the right-handed witnessed a decline in his fastball’s velocity and the ability to regularly throw it for a strike. That year 23 of his league-leading 39 home runs came on his fastball. Tired of paying for more baseballs, Los Angeles decided not to pick up his option for 2013 and traded him to Kansas City.

 

Somewhere between California and Missouri, Santana smoothed out rough spots in his delivery that had plagued him with the Angels. Most noticeably, in 2012 Santana had the habit of tilting his upper body towards the first base side while in the full windup before driving towards home. The result of this was a front side that would fly open (his glove side drifting towards the first base line prematurely) and creating issues for his command.

 

http://i.imgur.com/DW5rEpk.gif

 

At some point with the Royals, this was corrected and his upper body weight stayed above his back leg and tilted slightly towards the third base side while gathering. When driving towards the plate he remains on line and his glove side does not flip as quickly.

 

http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif

 

In these two examples both catchers are indicating they want a slider thrown down and on Santana’s glove side. Because of the mechanics in 2012, his arm drags and is not able to finish the slider properly. The slider stays up and in. (Although he misses his spot, Seattle’s Jesus Montero is flummoxed anyway as everyone knows his bats are afraid of balls that curve.) In the 2014 example, because of his fluid and smooth delivery Santana is able to place his slider in a much better spot.

 

According to ESPN/TruMedia, Santana has shown a much better tendency of burying the slider and keeping it out of the middle of the strike zone:

 

http://i.imgur.com/dM5yuzX.gif

 

In addition to the slider, Santana’s fastball also lost some velocity in 2012. While not even one mile per hour on average, it still was a noticeable drop. Like the slider, he was unable to locate the fastball in the zone.

 

Santana’s most significant improvement came at the apex of his delivery. He still lifts his hands over his head but rather than keeping his glove high and his arms away from his body, he now lowers his glove and keeps everything in tight. This may seem minor but it helps with his tempo. Whereas the Braves’ version is smooth, the Angels delivery feels like his lower and upper halves are playing catch-up throughout his delivery.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Download attachment: Santana_2012_Balance Point.jpg

Download attachment: Santana_2014_Balance Point.jpg

In all, smoothing out his delivery has led to better execution and better command of his pitches. If Santana is able to maintain these consistent mechanics, there should be little concern for a repeat of his 2012 campaign.

 

Adapt or die

 

While his season in Kansas City could arguably be considered his best, it is hard not to envy the amount of defense he had behind him in Royals uniforms. Because of the coverage, Santana turned in one of the lowest opponent bartting average of his career. In Atlanta, he did not have the same luxury. Getting to face a pitcher in the batting order a few times each game certainly boosted the strikeout numbers but Santana made another adjustment to keep hitters off-balance.

 

As Fangraphs.com’s Jeff Sullivan pointed out in April, Santana was suddenly unleashing a changeup that he had rarely used in previous seasons. After throwing it just 5.5% of the time from 2009 to 2013, with the Braves Santana upped that to 14%. The wrinkle gave opponents one more pitch to think about and wound up inducing a swing-and-miss nearly 30% of the time.

 

Deployed mainly on lefties, the seldom seen pitch was making appearances in hitters’ counts and frequently thrown to set up a slider for the kill. In fact, according to ESPN’s data, Santana struck out 24 batters on sliders set up by changeups. In the previous four seasons, he had managed to ring up 12 batters combined using that method.

 

Revisiting the GIF above, Santana’s strikeout of Washington’s Adam LaRoche came on a slider after he threw a changeup that stayed away for strike two. If you watch LaRoche’s reactions, he is clearly sold on another changeup only to make a foolish effort to make contact when the ball begins to bite.

 

http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif

 

Santana’s changeup seems to be an ever-evolving pitch for him. In Los Angeles, he displayed a split-change, something he picked up from split-fingered fastball specialist Dan Haren. Meanwhile, this past year Santana showed Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris his latest changeup grip which looks like a palmball thrown at the fingertips (man, does Santana have some long digits):

 

 

But Santana seems to employ multiple grips on his change. There’s also a slight split version and a circle-change looking grip. The trick for Santana has been keeping his arm action similar to the fastball while shaving off some velocity. This past year he threwn it at 84 mph on average, giving him a solid six-to-eight miles an hour of difference between it and his fastball.

 

Lefties overall finished decently against Santana. When all was said and done, they batted .291 but because of the new mix, Santana was able to strike them out in a greater volume and limit the number of home runs hit.

 

The takeaway

 

Over the course of his career, Santana’s hit some high notes. He has also been banged around.

 

While his slider is a legitimate pitch, he still allows a hefty number of balls in play, most of which are in the form of fly balls. Target Field's pitcher-friendly environment should limit the home runs but the questionable outfield defense may allow more extra base hits.

 

Based on the changes in his mechanics and his willingness to modify his pitch selection, Santana appears to be headed for a good year in the short-term. The real question is f he can remain healthy and productive in the latter half of his four-year contract.

 

For now, Santana is a definite upgrade to the Twins rotation.

 

Click here to view the article

[Nick Nelson]

The increase in changeup usage with the Braves is interesting, because Neil Allen has a reputation for helping guys with that pitch in particular.

[Parker Hageman]

Here's some good insight on Allen and the changeup:

“We’ve got a process that, when you hit Double-A, you’ve got to be able to throw your changeup to righties and left-handers, no matter what side you throw from,” Allen told Adam. “It’s become a weapon that we started a few years ago. There were a lot of guys coming to Triple-A that couldn’t throw their changeup for strikes righty-on-lefty or lefty-on-righty. The change is a great pitch if you utilize it [well], but we started getting into the philosophy that if it works opposite arm to opposite hitter, why don’t we start trying it righty-on-righty and lefty-on-lefty?”

 

Allen says it took him some time to come around, since in his era—also the ’80s—the changeup was used as a situational pitch, not a putaway pitch.* He doesn’t remember who decided to concentrate on changeups, but he does recall how the increased focus came about. “How it started was, ‘We want you to throw 10 to 15 percent changeups tonight.’ And so we’d go on percentages. It would come out as righty-on-righty sometimes to get to the percentage we wanted. We started seeing success left-on-left and right-on-right, and then we started feeding off it more and more.”

 

 

Read the full article here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21043

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff, as always.

[James]

I admit, I was reluctant to go after Santana, but it's articles like this that are making me already come around on him, and he hasn't even pitched a game for the Twins yet.  

 

Great work, as usual, Parker.

[Halsey Hall]

I'm so happy Anderson won't be able to tinker with him. 

[Mike Sixel]

An outside take on the signing.....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/twins-add-another-perfectly-serviceable-pitcher-in-santana/#comment-4856980

[Willihammer]

An outside take on the signing.....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/twins-add-another-perfectly-serviceable-pitcher-in-santana/#comment-4856980

Gah that graphs is awful.

 

Thank Christ, a move like this is a long time coming.

[ashbury]

An outside take on the signing.....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/twins-add-another-perfectly-serviceable-pitcher-in-santana/#comment-4856980

I guess commentators like to be dismissive of certain teams and heap praise on others.  The group of teams changes with time of course - so I'm basically calling such writers front-runners.  The Fangraphs writeup when Ervin signed with the Braves last March said, "Where the Braves are on the win curve, it was vital for them to replace Medlen with someone at least close to as talented."  Santana's basically the same pitcher as last time, but now (and it's a different writer, I realize) it's the Twins signing him, so the "praise" must be snide and dismissive.

[h2oface]

Nice breakdown.  32-35 year old seasons coming up.  36 with the option. Looks like the twins will have to score at least 5 runs to win games he pitches while he is eating innings. I think we will see a lot of hits given up, and balls in play. I can't help but think that the Nolasco and Santana signings could have been one Ace instead of two mediocre innings eaters. Here's to Santana performing like 2013 and not 2012, and suffering the Nolasco effect.

[Eephus]

This article makes me want to see Buxton and Hicks in the outfield to rake in some more of the fly balls. 

[old nurse]

In response to the fangraphs article. Hughes K% is fine, Nolasco's career average  for K% is fine at 19% Santana has a career K % of 18.9 Trevor May, if he is the 5th starter has a career so far of 20.9. Kyle Gibson's for the season sucked, but looks (apologies if my eyes are bad on the eye test, I took off the rose colored glasses first) as if improved over the second half from the first.  Corera, Deduno and Swarzak  are gone as well as Pino. They all contributed mightily to the low part of the curve. The chart had the avege IP of Twins starters at less than 120 IP. If the average IP of the first 5 starter are 170 and the replacements are Milone (15.9% career k%)  or Meyer (27% or better in the upper minors) the Twins' starters should have a representative K%

 

What appears worse is the bullpen K%. May they bring in 4 beter pitchers

Edited December 13, 2014 by old nurse

[shs_59]

Names of pitchers i'd rather of had than the Big Erv.

 

Jake Peavey     (cheaper)

Jeff Smardjza     (trade)

Jason Hammell    (cheaper, slightly)

Edinson Volquez   (cheaper)

Justin Masterson   (cheaper, way cheaper)

 

I like signing Santana better than signing Shields or Szcherzer i guess.... but thats about it.

[Thegrin]

I am hoping the lefty Milone is the 5th starter, which means that May, Meyer & Pelfrey are in the bullpen.  If Pelfrey is the long reliever, this means that May & Meyer will have plenty of chances to strike out batters at important times in games.  This could work out very well for the Twins.

[DocBauer]

This outstanding breakdown actually has me even more optimistic than I already was. Thank you Parker! I've done my own look-see in to Santana's career numbers and been surprised, pleasantly so, with what I've found. I've seen some poor years and some inconsistency...though all pitchers have these...but found he was more consistent than I realized, and that his overall numbers were actually better than I had realized. I was actually excited and all-in for a signing last season. He or Masterson were the guys I wanted this offseason if we were going to make a move.

 

Santana's last 5 seasons are very solid overall, and seeing and reading this breakdown to explain improvements make me feel even better about the guy we are getting.

 

I know there are defeatists out there, but if Hughes is what I believe he is, which is pretty much the pitcher he actually was in 2014, and will be again, with a little give and take here and there, Santana and a healthy Nolasco offer some fine stability behind him. If Gibson can avoid the sophomore jinx, and improve on his 2014 experience even a little, we really are set pretty nicely at 4 rotation spots to begin the season.

[Rosterman]

You look at starters taking you deep into the game, or at least six innings these days, I guess. Championship teams also get good win ratios from their starters, hopefully above .500. You would like to see Gibson graduate to 17-18 wins. Santana and Nolasco could easily hit 15 wins apiece. Gibson should be good for 12-14. The starters get the wins if they keep their team in the game, four or fewer runs in their start these days. If they do 3 runs in their start, they are a gem. If you give up only wo runs, the bullpen can play around more.

 

The Twins bullpen is pretty set with two setup guys (Duensing and Fein). You have Thielbar and someone (Oliveros) as 7th inning guys. You can have May or Pelfrey as long guys. You have Graham in the mix. Perkins would close.

 

But, yes, if you can get a rotation that gives you 190+ innings each of the first four, you have guys pitching well, and if the offense is there, you will win.

[h2oface]

Does anyone know if there is any truth to the story that Santana has been pitching with a partially torn UCL for the last couple of years? Healed or not?

[brvama]

Great piece Parker, as usual. This also helps with my belated enthusiasm on Santana.

 

Great video on his delivery. It looks like he changed from stepping toward the 1b side to stepping directly toward home plate. That closed he body at delivery and thus was easier to replicate.

 

I am ready for some baseball!!!

[old nurse]

Due dialagence would be an MRI. While thre would be a debate over if any pitcher has a normal UCL after a while, Sanatana should have 3 MRIs in the last three years with KC, Atlanta and now the Twins. If three were changes they would have been spotted.

[Linus]

Interesting that Scioscia spotted the problem with his mechanics but they were not fixed until he pitched for KC. 

 

Was it the new pitching coach that got him to make the changes or was it the player not willing to make the changes until after the trade?

 

Some Worley type stuff going on here as this was the thing that Worley supposedly fixed as well.