Article: Santana Signing Signals Shifting Mindset

[Rosterman]

If we come to 2017 with Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart for starters either in the rotation or having paid their major league dues, it means we traded off Gibson at some point before he became arbitration expensive, allowed Phil Hughes to walk and got a draft pick because the Twins offered but he didn't take the additional year, and Nolasco is ripe for trade and Santana is being considered for an option year. Not to mention any surprises that would pop up. 

 

And the Twins would still have a minimal payroll. Would Hicks still be around (Kepler and Walker and Burto in the outfield). Would Dozier have been traded and replaced by Michael or anyone else. Is Gordon on the team by now.

 

Yes, for the sake of spending money, the team didn't kill themselves with this contract, or even the one-year for Torii, which is worth its weight in fan goodwill...watch and judge.

 

What makes all of this work is what the Twins can flip certain bullpeners for (Fein, Duensing for example). What they do with Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier. Can Hicks gain marketability. Is Arcia longterm or once he shows shines of shine (shades of David Ortiz) you just move him.

 

The Twins are fortunate that they have a number of players not only major league bound but also 40-man roster bound who want to play major league ball and know they have a chance to showcase with the Twins, and the Twins just have to know when to pull the plug and (shades of Billy Beane) make trades happen.

 

Will be an interesting next five years before the team totally settles and have to deal with longterm contracts for Berrios, Meyer, May, Sano, Buxton and the ilk...possible $100 million in those names alone!

[LaBombo]

 

Santana is now a year older, and he took a small step backward in 2014 compared to 2013. 

 

Very good take on the overall pluses and minuses of the deal itself and what it means to the big picture. 

 

As an aside probably several people have wondered if that small step backward was perhaps very small, if not a net sideways.

 

The 2014 walk rate was up from the 2013 rate, but that 2013 rate was his career low, and conspicuously lower than his career average.  And while higher the 2014 rate was right in line with his career average.

 

Meanwhile the strikeout rate rose as one would expect with the transition to the national league.  But it was not only much higher than 2013's, it was a full K per 9 higher than his career rate.

 

There's no exact formula for perfectly predicting added K rate in the AL to NL switch, but it seems to me that most of the stuff out there says that starters tend to gain about .5 K/9 going to the NL.  So that would account for only about half of the increase.  At the very least, the switch didn't mask a decline.

 

The ERA increase to nearly 4 in 2014 is what jumps out at most people initially, and it shouldn't be disregarded purely as anomaly, but it's more or less upside down from both the FIP and xFIP in that both markedly improved in 2014.

 

Then there's the fact that Santana endured a 2014 BABIP spike of over 30 points above his career average.  The 2013/2014 contrast looks even more favorable, with an inevitable 2014 ERA increase coming with along with the whopping 50 point in increase in BABIP

 

Haven't seen Santana throw a ton of innings and the pitchFX stuff will always be a mystery to me.  But a few things jumped out at me.

 

Having thrown his changeup right around 7% of the time in his career, Santana roughly doubled that in '14.  It only graded/fx'ed average, but the net result was that Santana quietly went from being what effectively amounted to a two pitch starter to a three pitch one.  Velocity of all three equaled 2013.

 

Plate discipline numbers are harder to get a bead on.  Swinging strikes were up, but how much of that was opposing pitchers flailing away like a kid at a pinata?  Overall, it seemed that the numbers were consistent with 2013.  Where there were small changes, improvements appeared to outnumber declines.

 

Although the small trends I've noted are pretty trivial individually, taken together they tell me that to the extent you can determine with the league change, Santana seems to have pitched pretty much as well in 2014 as he did the prior year.  It's not revelatory, but it's pretty good to know when you commit $55M/4 to a pitcher who just pitched through the beginning of the expert slope portion of the aging curve.

[tobi0040]

Will be an interesting next five years before the team totally settles and have to deal with longterm contracts for Berrios, Meyer, May, Sano, Buxton and the ilk...possible $100 million in those names alone!

 

In the case of Meyer, I think the plan with him all along was to delay service time. He is a Boras client and will never accept a team friendly deal or for that matter an extension before he hits free agency.  They have set themselves up to have one of the most talented pitchers they have had come through their system locked up from ages 25 to 31 for about $25M. 

 

As difficult and hard it was to not see him last year, I can now see some wisdom in that approach.  He was on 80 pitch limits and they didn't wan to burn a year of service on a year like that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

At the end of the day, I'm expecting a trade this offseason.  If Meyer progresses (which I expect), he's going to be ready with no place in the rotation next year.   I'm assuming that May is going to be fine in the rotation and establish himself. Nolasco will have 2 more years, Santana 3, and Hughes 1.  Gibson will be the likely candidate, but I think someone is traded.

[Linus]

I think there is a big factor that everyone overlooks in these scenarios.  Not all of these guys are going to turn into MLB caliber players, much less stars that we need to worry about huge free agent contracts at some point in the future.

 

I wish Trevor May all the best in his Twins career and hope he wins a Cy Young.  However, he is far from a lock to be a competent big league pitcher.  Planning on every single prospect turning out is a recipe for failure, hence the Santana signing.

[TheLeviathan]

I think there is a big factor that everyone overlooks in these scenarios.  Not all of these guys are going to turn into MLB caliber players, much less stars that we need to worry about huge free agent contracts at some point in the future.

 

I wish Trevor May all the best in his Twins career and hope he wins a Cy Young.  However, he is far from a lock to be a competent big league pitcher.  Planning on every single prospect turning out is a recipe for failure, hence the Santana signing.

 

On the flip side, you have to give players a chance to show you one way or the other.  Competent players making the league minimum are extremely valuable to a club.  I'm not worried about Santana blocking someone necessarily, but it puts more of an onus on last year when there was opportunity but the team declined (for whatever reason) to use it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think there is a big factor that everyone overlooks in these scenarios.  Not all of these guys are going to turn into MLB caliber players, much less stars that we need to worry about huge free agent contracts at some point in the future.

 

I wish Trevor May all the best in his Twins career and hope he wins a Cy Young.  However, he is far from a lock to be a competent big league pitcher.  Planning on every single prospect turning out is a recipe for failure, hence the Santana signing.

I think May will be fine. He showed quite a bit of improvement as the season went on. He gets the Ks, but was walking too many guys. I think that's more mental for him (especially given how well he limited them in AAA) and I think he settles in to a low 4 ERA with a bunch of Ks. That wouldn't be bad at all for his first full year. Meyer gets called up to replace the first injured guy. I'm hoping he takes a major step forward in AAA limiting the walks and never looks back when he's called up.

[kab21]

I will be shocked if it is June and no starters are injured or Blackburn-esque (or Pelfrey-esque) ineffective.  It's a good thing to have depth and guys will get their chance.

[Thegrin]

I can't understand why so many think Meyer is the answer. Can't you see that Meyer is not ready for the Majors ?  He was on a pitch limit. He was inconsistant. He was hurting at the end of the year despite the pitch limit. . I wish it weren't so but there is still something wrong with Meyer

[tobi0040]

I will be shocked if it is June and no starters are injured or Blackburn-esque (or Pelfrey-esque) ineffective.  It's a good thing to have depth and guys will get their chance.

 

Exactly, happens every year to every team.

 

If someone can tell me one time in Twins history when the rotation on April first was the same as July first I would be surprised. 

 

I think ultimately Ervin takes starts from Pelfrey, Milone, and some AAAA types. Had they not signed Ervin, the Twins would get 30 starts next year from someone other than the five guys. 

[jokin]

Exactly, happens every year to every team.

 

If someone can tell me one time in Twins history when the rotation on April first was the same as July first I would be surprised. 

 

I think ultimately Ervin takes starts from Pelfrey, Milone, and some AAAA types. Had they not signed Ervin, the Twins would get 30 starts next year from someone other than the five guys. 

 

With the Santana signing, we're finally very, very close to moving away, for good, from any starts from AAAA types or fringe starters.  

 

Besides May and Meyer, a strong first half by Berrios in AA and/or AAA puts him right in the middle of the fight for a rotation spot.  This kid is driven to greatness like no other Twins pitcher in recent memory. 

[nicksaviking]

I can't understand why so many think Meyer is the answer. Can't you see that Meyer is not ready for the Majors ?  He was on a pitch limit. He was inconsistant. He was hurting at the end of the year despite the pitch limit. . I wish it weren't so but there is still something wrong with Meyer

 

We don't know that any of them will be the answer, but we need to find out.  This team still needs an ace to win, maybe two.  The young guys are the only chance at getting one.  We aren't going to find out if they can lead a rotation while pitching in AAA.  Last year was a lost season, they should have had them up, even if they were raw, with flaws and on pitch limits.  The bullpen was overused anyway, it wouldn't have made a difference.  They can learn more at the MLB level about what it takes to be a MLB pitcher than they can in AAA.  The longer we wait to find out on these guys, the longer it will take for the rebuild.

Edited December 15, 2014 by nicksaviking