Article: Santana Signing Signals Shifting Mindset

[tobi0040]

This move really seems like the team is hoping to compete now, however I still dont think they can if they don't have an ace.  It may be a long shot, but the team's only chance at getting an ace is to hope one of the young pitchers will turn into one. 

 

Santana's a fine pitcher, but I still think the best move was to give a full season to May and Meyer and then if one or both don't pan out, 2016 is when you go and find long term pitcher, Cueto, Latos, Zimmerman, Porcello, Fister, Kazmir, or Greinke, Samardzjia, Price for those of us with too high of expectations.  Next year's free agent class projects to be so much better.

 

Of the pitchers you listed, Ervin is better than Porcello. Healthier than Kazmir and Latos.  And almost all are going to get more than four years and $55M.  Cueto, Zimmerman, Jeff S, Price, and Greinke could all get in excess of $100M, some approaching $150M. The reality is we weren't signing most of those guys either way.

Edited December 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[Trevor0333]

I'd still like them to sign Anderson to a Hughes like contract.

 

Santana or Nolasco could easily be moved in the final years if their deals as long as their healthy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Great article Nick.

[nicksaviking]

Of the pitchers you listed, Ervin is better than Porcello. Healthier than Kazmir and Latos.  And almost all are going to get more than four years and $55M.  Cueto, Zimmerman, Jeff S, Price, and Greinke could all get in excess of $100M, some approaching $150M. The reality is we weren't signing most of those guys either way.

 

I wouldn't want Porcello or Fister, would have less interest in Kazmir, but there are look to be a lot of options next year.  There may be bounce back seasons from Buchholz, Estrada and Masterson.  There are just more pitchers. 

 

Regardless, I was already counting on 2015 to be a development year, meaning I was fine letting the young guys play even if they struggle.  We need to know.  We still might get some answers, but now it's not certain the picture will get any clearer.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't want Porcello or Fister, would have less interest in Kazmir, but there are look to be a lot of options next year.  There may be bounce back seasons from Buchholz, Estrada and Masterson.  There are just more pitchers. 

 

Regardless, I was already counting on 2015 to be a development year, meaning I was fine letting the young guys play even if they struggle.  We need to know.  We still might get some answers, but now it's not certain the picture will get any clearer.

 

I think the picture will be clearer. Theoretically, one of the two could get 30 starts.  The other could have 50 bullplen appearances, or 10-20, then move to the rotation and get 15-20 starts.

 

If that does not happen, it is on the Twins and was likely going to the case whether or not we signed Ervin.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My take:

 

1. I'm glad they aren't sitting back and waiting for the farm.

2. I'm glad they are attempting to add talent to the awful pitching staff.

3. I'm not in love with the signing, but I do think it helps the team.

4. I don't think it's the dollars that might hinder the team, it's that they don't really have room for Meyer and May and Berrios now.......and they just traded for Meyer and May (leaving them w/o a CF for 2-3 years now), if those guys still aren't ready to help, that's three years with no payback.

5. I hope they have the guts to pull the plug on anyone that isn't pitching well, assuming Meyer is ready at that point (or May or Milone). If they just stick with the guys (if they are bad) because they are vets making money, that will be a bummer.

6. I'll be shocked if both Nolasco and Santana are better than league median this year, hoping to be shocked.

Pretty much nailed my thoughts on the signing.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think the picture will be clearer. Theoretically, one of the two could get 30 starts.  The other could have 50 bullplen appearances, or 10-20, then move to the rotation and get 15-20 starts.

 

If that does not happen, it is on the Twins and was likely going to the case whether or not we signed Ervin.

You and I will just have to disagree that a season in the bullpen is an acceptable place for a good starting pitching prospect. Who has passed the age of 25.

 

Trevor May had a couple of compelling outings last fall and I would have liked to see him take some turns in the rotation. I hope Molitor and Allen do not turn him into a pitch to contact bullpen arm. Even Milone might have been given a shot in ST as a possible "different look" kind of guy for the rotation (and only lefty).

[Brandon]

My take:

 

1. I'm glad they aren't sitting back and waiting for the farm.

2. I'm glad they are attempting to add talent to the awful pitching staff.

3. I'm not in love with the signing, but I do think it helps the team.

4. I don't think it's the dollars that might hinder the team, it's that they don't really have room for Meyer and May and Berrios now.......and they just traded for Meyer and May (leaving them w/o a CF for 2-3 years now), if those guys still aren't ready to help, that's three years with no payback.

5. I hope they have the guts to pull the plug on anyone that isn't pitching well, assuming Meyer is ready at that point (or May or Milone). If they just stick with the guys (if they are bad) because they are vets making money, that will be a bummer.

6. I'll be shocked if both Nolasco and Santana are better than league median this year, hoping to be shocked.

 

7.  Now the Twins have a pitcher they can trade down the line to help replenish the farm system when they start drafting in the first round with the 28th pick. This would happen if the younger pitchers show they belong and can adequately replace the pitcher being traded or we have the ammo to trade a prospect to acquire a piece that helps us get to the World Series.

[Mike Sixel]

not sure what you can get for a SP in his mid-30s, that at his peak is median or just above median. Had they signed these kinds of guys 2 and 3 years ago, then I'd like your idea a lot more......which is why, imo, you don't wait to add talent.

[tobi0040]

You and I will just have to disagree that a season in the bullpen is an acceptable place for a good starting pitching prospect. Who has passed the age of 25.

 

Trevor May had a couple of compelling outings last fall and I would have liked to see him take some turns in the rotation. I hope Molitor and Allen do not turn him into a pitch to contact bullpen arm. Even Milone might have been given a shot in ST as a possible "different look" kind of guy for the rotation (and only lefty).

 

I think we will have to disagree. I have lived through guy after guy being penciled in as a lock in the winter and seen any number of things happen every year.  What we know in December is always completely different from the reality of the following June.  It happens every year.  The blocking argument has never been a problem.  I think many are nervous since Meyer didn’t make it up, but I think it was never in the cards. Nobody thought Pino was a better prospect than Meyer.

 

Here is a brief history:

 

In 2010 we had Blackburn, fresh off an extension and a good 2008-2009.  Back to back 200 IP at 4.00.  Young guy, going to take a step forward.  He went out and put up a 5.42 ERA.

 

In 2011, Duensing was locked in.  He was our best pitcher in 2010. Pavano was always going to be good because he had the one good year. Liriano was back to being Liriano.  Blackburn was a bounce back guy, they made excuse after excuse about his arm and it taking away his best pitch, hitters were sitting on his fastball but he was healthy now.  Duensing put up a 5.23.  Pavano’s ERA jumped to 4.30.  Liriano’s went from 3.62 to 5.09.  Baker and Liriano only pitched 134 IP each. Blackburn had an ERA of 4.49 and only pitched 145 innings.

 

In 2012, we had hope Liriano was going to bounce back.  You could pencil in Pavano for at least a league average 4.50 type ERA and he is an inning eater.  Duensing was a guy we needed to give a look, bounce back guy.    Well Liriano put up a 5.31 ERA and logged 100 IP.  The new found health did not seem to help Blackburn, he had a 7.39 ERA and logged 98 innings.  Duensing proved to be more 2011 Duensing, 5.12 ERA and only 109 innings.  Pavano, well proved to be not a guy that could log innings OR be productive (6.00 ERA in 63 innings).

 

In 2013, Scott Diamond was our best pitcher and going to the guy, he was locked in.  Big Pelf was brought in to stabilize the back half of the rotation.   Gibson was going to emerge.  Huge upside potential.   Diamond put up an ERA of 5.43 and only logged 131 Innings.  Gibson struggled as most rookies do, 6.53 ERA in 51 innings.  Pelfrey was awful.  5.19 ERA in 152 IP.

 

In 2014, Ricky was the a huge get.  We were making excuses for Pelfrey.  1st year back from TJ….then he hit his groove for 6 starts, then he wore down….We could get help from the farm as early as June. Deduno was actually pretty good the year before.  Maybe he was a gem we found. Ricky had an ERA of 5.38 and was shut down, only 159 IP.  We got a whopping 23 innnings of 7.99 ERA out of Pelfrey.  Turns out he isn’t any good.    And Deduno’s ERA jumped to 4.60.

 

In my humble opinion, having one extra guy that starts April 1st getting quasi starts in a long relief role until he steps into the rotation is a fine strategy.  It could actually be a great way to break a guy like Meyer in.  Not to mention the depth and talent upgrade Ervin provides.

 

I clearly approve.

Edited December 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

Should have done that last year with Meyer......and NONE of the guys you listed (that have come up in the last 4 years) are half the prospects as him, they aren't good comparisons at all (well, maybe Gibson, maybe).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Should have done that last year with Meyer......and NONE of the guys you listed (that have come up in the last 4 years) are half the prospects as him, they aren't good comparisons at all (well, maybe Gibson, maybe).

Eh, Gibson is a pretty terrible comp to Meyer.

 

Higher floor, lower ceiling. Gibson was a solid prospect; Meyer has the potential to be dominant. Or implode spectacularly.

[nicksaviking]

I think the picture will be clearer. Theoretically, one of the two could get 30 starts.  The other could have 50 bullplen appearances, or 10-20, then move to the rotation and get 15-20 starts.

If that does not happen, it is on the Twins and was likely going to the case whether or not we signed Ervin.

 

Theoretically they could get 30 starts. Theoretically they could get stuck in Rochester all season too.

 

Sticking the youngstes in the rotation at the onset regardless of other options would have been the best  way to ensure we get a clear idea of what they will give us in the furture.  It could have shown that they won't cut it, but I don't care, we need to find out sometime, now is better than next year assuming being competitive is more of a future goal than a present goal.

 

It is on the Twins to make room for prospects, but I don't trust them to put development ahead of country club ideals.  This is the club that put Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell and Johan Pino at the head of the line because they were more veteran and had put more time in.  It let Ricky Nolasco put up a historically terrible season for an entire year and re-signed Mike Pelfrey to a two year deal because they liked him in the clubhouse.

Edited December 12, 2014 by nicksaviking

[tobi0040]

Should have done that last year with Meyer......and NONE of the guys you listed (that have come up in the last 4 years) are half the prospects as him, they aren't good comparisons at all (well, maybe Gibson, maybe).

 

But the blocking argument applies to May as well.  Not just Meyer.  But the moral of the story is things change.  Here is a brief list of assumptions we are making regarding the blocking argument:

 

-2014 Hughes is the guy moving forward.  He has battled health issues in the past.  We are assuming he is healthy again.

 

-Gibson is a major league pitcher.  He ended the year with a decent ERA of 4.43, especially given it being his first full year  up.    I think he is going to need to k more than 5.4 people per 9. 

 

-May is the good May from 2014, not the bad May.  The guy has struggled a ton with control the last few years.  If that pops as an issue again he will be in AAA real quick.

 

-Ricky Nolasco is the pre-2014 guy.  The numbers are not indicitive of a larger health issue.

 

-Meyer is healthy and the Twins want him up here on April 1.  He gets his BB's under control.

 

-Nobody will need TJ, have a bum shoulder, etc. including Ervin Santana.

 

I am not predicting any of things.  But one of them or some other unforseen thing will happen.  We will need a 6th starter and odds are before June 1.

[tobi0040]

Sticking the youngstes in the rotation at the onset regardless of other options would have been the best  way to ensure we get a clear idea of what they will give us in the furture.  It could have shown that they won't cut it, but I don't care, we need to find out sometime, now is better than next year assuming being competitive is more of a future goal than a present goal.

 

 

Three years from now, I think Meyer and May will either be in baseball or they won't. They will either be really good or they won't.  And I don't think whether they get starts on April 1 or make 5, 10, or 20 appearances out of the pen first will matter at all.

 

The issue and bigger risk I have with the let the young guys play from day one is depth.  Nothing I have seen from Mike Pelfrey makes me ever want to see him start a game for the Twins again.  Same with the AAAA filler guys we have or will pick up between now and February.  The reason you sign Ervin Santana is so that never happens (in addition to making your staff much better).  Ultimately, We will likely have 30-40 starts next year made by guys that are not Meyer, May, Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson.  I would rather see them to go Ervin than the alternative.

[Mike Sixel]

Here is my issue....I think Meyer and maybe May are BETTER than Nolasco and Gibson.....and they probably won't pitch unless something REALLY bad happens (not if Nolasco and Gibson are ok, but not bad).

 

Lots of people worry about depth, I worry about the MLB team having the best player on it, not keeping guys in AAA so in case things go REALLY bad, they come up. I want them up when they are the better option (even if the existing option is acceptable). 

 

that is the delta in our position, I think.

[tobi0040]

Here is my issue....I think Meyer and maybe May are BETTER than Nolasco and Gibson.....and they probably won't pitch unless something REALLY bad happens (not if Nolasco and Gibson are ok, but not bad).

 

Lots of people worry about depth, I worry about the MLB team having the best player on it, not keeping guys in AAA so in case things go REALLY bad, they come up. I want them up when they are the better option (even if the existing option is acceptable). 

 

that is the delta in our position, I think.

 

I just think it is an irrational worry that five guys are going to not need to be replaced, sent down, and stay healthy.   Honest question.  When has that ever happened?

[Mike Sixel]

As I said.....it is about Meyer being better NOW, and not wanting to watch a worse pitcher at all. And, that this should have been done 2 years ago, when they had no real prospects......

 

I expect them to need 7 pitchers, but I'd prefer the better pitchers be here, and not in AAA, I think I've said that several times now.

[nicksaviking]

Three years from now, I think Meyer and May will either be in baseball or they won't. They will either be really good or they won't.  And I don't think whether they get starts on April 1 or make 5, 10, or 20 appearances out of the pen first will matter at all.

 

 

I guess that I think in three years they'll either be very good starters or in the back of the bullpen.  But I don't want to think, I want to know.  We shouldn't be unsure of what they can do this time next year.  We MIGHT get to see enough of them this year, but now that is not certain.

 

This can't turn into a Chris Parmelee situation where he got five odd games here and 7 odd games there and we try to make a judgment based on piecemeal information. We shouldn't evaluate these guys based on a scattershot of data from spot starts and periodic bullpen appearances.

[nicksaviking]

I just think it is an irrational worry that five guys are going to not need to be replaced, sent down, and stay healthy.   Honest question.  When has that ever happened?

 

Last year the injured starters were continally replaced by AAAA pitchers because their seniority "earned" them the promotion.  And Nolasco was never demoted despite a full season of making the fans turn off the TV.

 

Besides, I don't want Meyer, May, Berrios or any other true prospect to make spot starts, what good does that do?  If they are going to start for the Twins, they should have a permanent position in the rotation until they prove unable to cut it.

Edited December 12, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Halsey Hall]

I don't understand the Pelfrey dislike, and suggest that Meyer, May etc will have to beat him out in spring training.  Seems Pelfrey had one bad inning a lot last season.  I look for him to be in the mix for the rotation and won't be surprised if he makes it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

7.  Now the Twins have a pitcher they can trade down the line to help replenish the farm system when they start drafting in the first round with the 28th pick. This would happen if the younger pitchers show they belong and can adequately replace the pitcher being traded or we have the ammo to trade a prospect to acquire a piece that helps us get to the World Series.

Let's hope it's the 30th pick.

[tobi0040]

Last year the injured starters were continally replaced by AAAA pitchers because their seniority "earned" them the promotion. 

 

I don't neccesarily agree with that.  It is clear to me with hindsight that Meyer was not coming up unless he lit the world on fire and we had to bring him up.  He did that for 3-4 starts...but never did really did it.

 

I think the Twins either wanted to suppress his service time or they wanted to give him a full year and manage pitch counts, and didn't think doing so at the big league level made sense for his development.  I lean towards suppress service time. They didn't want to waste a year of control on 80 pitch count starts.  Now we have a talented Boras client from 25-31 under full control.  We know he is never giving us a discount and he will be a free agent at 31. 

Edited December 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[kellyvance]

I like the signing as it adds a proven and durable arm that will be 20 percent of our SP corps. If Hughes repeats or comes close to his performance last year, Gibson continued to improve, May settles in, we have one spot for Rickey, Meyer or someone else that emerges, like Berrios.

 

I see now the wisdom of being careful with Meyer. Made no sense to call him up last year. It would have been like betting on an inside straight in a non contending year.

 

And I have had to get used to the naysayers on here. No matter what the Twins do there will be criitics. I see this as trying to help the team by bringing in a durable veteran arm in a position of need. Puts less pressure on the kids. 

[nowheresville]

I'm sorry, I don't know how anyone could call the signing of Santana a "shifting mindset."

 

This is the exact same move that the Twins management has been passing off for years now. The Twins need a top of the rotation arm, but they don't even consider that. Instead, they again go for the bargain bin, grabbing up yet another #3 arm, and expect the fans to celebrate that they've opened up the wallet because they've spent a whopping $55 Million bucks. 

 

BTW, While this will be the newest "biggest FA deal in Twins history," does anyone have any list of what each team's biggest FA deal is, because I've got to think that's still at or near the very bottom of all of MLB. 

 

It is important for the Twins to start spending money to get some talent back on the roster, but this is another move that seems much less about winning, than another smokescreen for a team that is struggling to keep fan interest and seems to have lost all interest in, or maybe just doesn't have the ability to, putting a winning team on the field.

[nicksaviking]

 

BTW, While this will be the newest "biggest FA deal in Twins history," does anyone have any list of what each team's biggest FA deal is, because I've got to think that's still at or near the very bottom of all of MLB. 

 

 

I remember researching that two years ago when Willingham was the Twins largest free agent signing and it was the lowest largest free agent signing for any team. (There has to be a better way to phrase that!)

 

4/55 has moved them up though.  They are definately ahead of the Padres, who I believe gave Carlos Quinten their largest contract and the Pirates who set their record this year with Liriano.  This is equal in dollars but fewer years than the Royals gave Gil Meche.  I think Cleveland's 4/56 deal for Swisher is their largest, so that's only a million buck more.

 

They're low on the list, but who did you want?  I woud never give a 6-7 year deal for a starting pitcher.  The free agent class this year is awful.

[PseudoSABR]

So anything short of spending 150 million is disrespecting the fans?  Exactly one team has spent that kind of money this offseason; a lot of unhappy baseball fans out there.

 

And 55 million dollar smoke screen? They already had ten-million dollar smoke screen in Hunter...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think we will have to disagree. I have lived through guy after guy being penciled in as a lock in the winter and seen any number of things happen every year.  What we know in December is always completely different from the reality of the following June.  It happens every year.  The blocking argument has never been a problem.  I think many are nervous since Meyer didn’t make it up, but I think it was never in the cards. Nobody thought Pino was a better prospect than Meyer.

 

 

Sure, but last year Pelfrey made it through spring and five starts into the regular season, despite just about everybody on TD pretty clearly believing from the day he was signed that he didn't have the stuff to pitch in a big league rotation. So maybe Pelfrey wasn't blocking Meyer last year, but it turns out he was blocking someone, Kris Johnson even. Blocking happens. I'm not sure Santana will be $15 million better than May or Meyer, so I was ambivalent. Especially if you consider that May and Meyer seem to have a great relationship, and now they are forced to compete against one another for the final spot.. Hunger Games anyone? The Santana signing is maybe not that big a deal to make in the big scheme but fun to argue.

[h2oface]

I like the Pirates' left handed Liriano (3 years/39 mil and a dominator when coaches let him pitch) and the Cubs' Hamels (2 years /20 mil) signings way better than this signing. I don't care about the money. Pohlads can spend whenever they want to (they just haven't wanted to according to past actions). I like the years way better. Time will tell. Maybe, unlike what most armchair managers spout, Santana will get better or remain the same as he starts next year at 32 years of age, instead of get worse fast.  

[tobi0040]

I like the Pirates' left handed Liriano (3 years/39 mil and a dominator when coaches let him pitch) and the Cubs' Hamels (2 years /20 mil) signings way better than this signing. I don't care about the money. Pohlads can spend whenever they want to (they just haven't wanted to according to past actions). I like the years way better. Time will tell. Maybe, unlike what most armchair managers spout, Santana will get better or remain the same as he starts next year at 32 years of age, instead of get worse fast.  

 

Liriano was not coming back here. I don't think either side had genuine interest. Ervin is better than Hammel, almost a half run better career ERA.  Hammel's career WHIP is 1.39.  He hasn't been nearly as durable either. 

 

Granted two years versus four...