Article: Santana Signing Signals Shifting Mindset

[Nick Nelson]

His signature pitch may be that nasty slider, but the Minnesota Twins have thrown us a major curveball with the signing of right-hander Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55 million contract.

 

Beyond the addition of a quality veteran arm, the move signifies a continuing shift in organizational philosophy and a major shakeup to the long-term look of the rotation. It also may indicate that ownership is taking a more active role in roster construction.Let's get this out of the way: I was wrong on this one. Very, very wrong. Comically wrong. I wrote on Wednesday that "I can't see the Twins making a serious play" for Santana, and a tweeted "it ain't happening." Shows what I know.

 

In fairness, this signing doesn't jibe with what Twins officials have been saying or doing over the past several months. The front office has (sometimes not so subtly) hinted that it doesn't really view contention in 2015 as realistic, with the focus more on on bridging the gap and maintaining long-term flexibility. This was backed up by implications from Terry Ryan and Dave St. Peter that payroll would not rise significantly, as well as by Minnesota's previous free agent splash.

 

Signing Torii Hunter to a one-year deal was a move that appeared to be aimed more at generating good will and creating a favorable environment for young players, as opposed to actually improving the team.

 

Indeed, it was hard to argue with La Velle's recent assessment:

Next offseason will be the one in which landing a top pitcher (Samardzija and David Price will be free agents) to anchor a revival will be a more palatable move.

 

It's a roundabout way of saying my expectations for the [2015] Twins are low, low, low. My expectations for them this week at the winter meetings are low, low, low. And their chances of moving up the charts in the AL Central are low, low, low following Chicago's moves.

And yet, now Ryan has signed Santana to the largest free agent contract in franchise history -- a four-year deal that adds more reliability to the 2015 rotation, but inhibits the flexibility of that unit going forward while also carrying significant risk.

 

Just one year after throwing $50 million in guaranteed money at Ricky Nolasco (with disastrous results in Year One), the Twins have essentially doubled down, once again handing a lucrative four-year contract to past-30 a veteran with a good-not-great track record.

 

Nolasco's struggles this past season have no bearing on how this new acquisition will perform, and it seems fair to say that the Ryan and Co. are especially high on Santana since this isn't the first time the general manager has gone outside his comfort zone to pursue him. There were multiple reports that the Twins made a sizable multi-year offer to Santana last year, even after signing both Nolasco and Phil Hughes.

 

Santana is now a year older, and he took a small step backward in 2014 compared to 2013, but that didn't stop Ryan from upping his ante and forfeiting a valuable draft pick (something he's never done) to bring him aboard.

 

In the big picture, it's hard to view this as a great signing, because the Twins are now heavily invested in Santana into his mid-30s and are also reducing flexibility for young players to take over, both now and down the line.

 

They have three veterans locked in for 2016. In 2017, the club is committed to Santana and Nolasco -- who will both be 34 -- for more than $25 million.

 

In the scope of the ongoing rebuilding process, that might seem a little odd. There are several vaunted pitching prospects in the pipeline, some of whom are on the verge of arriving.

 

But to me, there are two big takeaways from the Santana addition:

 

1) The Twins are hedging their bets with prospects. It's easy to say now that a 2016 or 2017 rotation should be filled by Kyle Gibson, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, J.O. Berrios and maybe Kohl Stewart. But we've seen enough prospects derailed by injuries or heightened competition to know that planning around all those guys panning out is overly optimistic. If those pitchers (or others) do in fact all turn into major-leaguer starters, that's a nice problem to have.

 

2) Somewhere within the front office, urgency is building. Owner Jim Pohlad has made some public comments this offseason that have been noticeably at odds with Ryan's typically conservative demeanor; undoubtedly bristling at sagging ticket sales, Pohlad has hinted that he's ready to spend and give his product a more immediate jolt. I don't know how much he influenced the GM's pursuit of Santana (and others), but I'd guess it was significant. My sense was always that Ryan would personally prefer to pursue short-term options or make-good contracts (and that was actually my preferred strategy).

 

I can't say I love the Santana signing because it's a major commitment to an aging hurler who's never been truly great, but I view it as a solid move. The Twins are building some decent pitching depth and lessening their reliance on prospects, both of which were much needed.

 

Additionally, they're continuing to push back against the "cheap" label, and changing the perception that they simply aren't interested in spending to make the team better in a season where they are unlikely to compete for the playoffs. As a fan who's been frustrated with what I view as a defeatist attitude at times, I appreciate that.

 

At the end of the day, a $50 million contract (or even two $50 million contracts in two years) is not that substantial in today's MLB, nor is a team payroll just north of $100 million, which is where the Twins now sit. But this franchise is moving in the right direction, and giving fans some reason to hope that these miserable past four years really are in the rearview mirror.

 

Whether TR made that pivot on his own or required a little push from above, it's good to see.

 

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[Otwins]

The salary commitment for the next 4 years should not be too big of a burden since the future additions should come from the farm system. You rarely get a good financial deal when you add a free agent.  Just by definition you have to pay more money than any other team would. So most likely more than he is worth. But I am encouraged by the Twins willingness to add what they soooo needed. A major league starting pitcher. 

[beckmt]

This looks like a send a statement move,  do not know if this is best, but maybe a starter could be flipped later, this is a good problem to have.

[Thegrin]

I think that the odds are that both the Santana signing and the Hunter signing are not going to look good at the end of 2015.  However, if I am wrong (and I hope I am) then we should be in contention for the whole year and Target Field should be brimming with fans.

[lightfoot789]

I think Sanatana is a perfect fit for the cost.  He has averaged 6.4 innings per game over the last 4 seasons.  He has been the model of consistency.  That being said:  His last 2 teams (KC & ATL) were terrible at run production and run support.  The Twins seem to be an improving offense and were Top 7, I believe in Runs Per Game.  If we continue to improve in that area (offense) and he stays consistent with his ERA, we are looking at one of the Top pitchers in the league in terms of "WINS".  Thus making this a steal (ala Hughes last year).  Our bullpen will have to hold up it's end thru the 7th - 8th & 9th.  That seems to be the new make up of the MLB anyway.  More and more teams are building with that formula in mind. The pitchers who will be most ready to do that will be the up and coming pitchers like Meyer and May and Berrios and Burdi, etc. etc..  David Price started out of the Pen before he became David Price (Meyer / Berrios).  We can be the new KC in terms of pitching with a Baltimore type line up (explosive) moving forward.   I like!

[SarasotaBill]

I agree with the article.

I like Santana signing but worry about the payroll effect in 2017.

 

Next step: Wait for July and try to extend Hughes for two years or trade him if overwhelmed (at least a Sano level prospect).

[Seth Stohs]

I don't think this is any sort of "statement" by the Twins. Last year when they gave out over $80M in starting pitching contracts and signed Nolasco, it was a statement. This year, it's just making decisions to make the team better. They needed a starting pitcher and they went and got a really good one. Is he an Ace? No, but he's a solid 2/3 and has been for a long time. He's had a couple of clunker years over his dozen big league seasons, but everyone has those. Kind of like Nolasco having a clunker last year. These guys both have solid backgrounds and history on their side. That's why they got the contracts they did. Not just to create some sort of statement. 

[Old Twins Cap]

I think the change in mindset is this:  The Pohlads have a ton of money.  Like, billions.  Do they want to sit by and watch their major investment (the Twins) languish while they have all their dough locked up in Wall Street?  Or, do they take some liquid assets and put them into ballplayers. 

 

Now they have a couple hundred million in ballplayer contracts.  But, guess what?  They can trade these chips for other things.  If the Twins stink up Target Field the fifty million in Nolascos and Santanas become something else entirely at the trade deadline. 

 

I think the Pohlads finally realize that baseball contracts are not fixed assets but more like commodities or stocks that go up and down, perform well or poorly and can be cashed in, dealt or inflate greatly in value.

 

It's time the Twins get in the pool and play with the big boys.  This year or next, if Nolasco is doing well, or Santana, or Hughes, and the Twins have a surplus of hurlers, they can cash one or two of them in and get all their money back in talent, while dumping their millions in liability on the Yanks.

[HitInAPinch]

Personally, I would have chased after Brandon McCarthy before Santana.  His starts after being traded to the Yankees were outstanding.  Santana is just another middle of the road type pitcher who relies more on a breaking ball than fastball.  And the Twins have a lot of those already.  What this rotation really needs is a guy with a fastball that POPS!  Maybe that's May or Meyer.  If Molitor and Neil Allen can get more wins than loses from the starting 5, I'd call it a very successful year for the Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the change in mindset is that they want as many guys named Santana on the roster as possible... Waiting for them to give Johan another shot at a minor league deal.

[kab21]

How many more FA's are the Twins signing for this to hinder the Twin's payroll in 2017 or 2018?  Mauer, Nolasco and Santana are the only big contracts those years (and expiring by 2018).  Dozier and Plouffe are the only 2nd/3rd yr arb guys of significance.

[kab21]

Personally, I would have chased after Brandon McCarthy before Santana.  His starts after being traded to the Yankees were outstanding.  Santana is just another middle of the road type pitcher who relies more on a breaking ball than fastball.  And the Twins have a lot of those already.  What this rotation really needs is a guy with a fastball that POPS!  Maybe that's May or Meyer.  If Molitor and Neil Allen can get more wins than loses from the starting 5, I'd call it a very successful year for the Twins.

McCarthy has shoulder problems and has been injured nearly every MLB season.  He was an interesting target on a 2 yr contract but not at all on the contract that he got.

[tobi0040]

Agree on McCarthy. He has not pitched 1000 innings and has been in the league 10 years. Not the type of guy you give a four year deal.

[DocBauer]

Agree with Seth, the statement was made last offseason with the signings of Hughes, Nolasco, (Pelfrey), Suzuki, Morales and the attempted signings of Santana and Garza.

 

Based on that, based on comments/hints by Pohlad this past year, based on comments made by Ryan as the season ended, I was one to expect/predict at least some sort of spree this offseason. Though I admit Hunter blind-sided me a bit. Masterson and Santana were at the top of my actual wish-list, Santana maybe the safer choice of the two. (length of consistent track record) I know his numbers are actually pretty close to Nolasco, though better in most all categories by a bit,but he does rate better overall.

 

His past 5 year numbers as an average:

 

32 GS/ 207.3 IP/ 195.2 hits/ .249 OPP BA/ 164 SO/ 64 BB/ 2.56-1 SO-BB ratio.

 

I don't know, that's a pretty solid #2 guy to me.

[Mike Sixel]

My take:

 

1. I'm glad they aren't sitting back and waiting for the farm.

2. I'm glad they are attempting to add talent to the awful pitching staff.

3. I'm not in love with the signing, but I do think it helps the team.

4. I don't think it's the dollars that might hinder the team, it's that they don't really have room for Meyer and May and Berrios now.......and they just traded for Meyer and May (leaving them w/o a CF for 2-3 years now), if those guys still aren't ready to help, that's three years with no payback.

5. I hope they have the guts to pull the plug on anyone that isn't pitching well, assuming Meyer is ready at that point (or May or Milone). If they just stick with the guys (if they are bad) because they are vets making money, that will be a bummer.

6. I'll be shocked if both Nolasco and Santana are better than league median this year, hoping to be shocked.

[halfchest]

Now this may be thread jacking, not intended to be as it is towards the thought of "making a statement". 

 

Should the Twins go after Cole Hamels?  and if so, at what cost?

 

I think a starting point is likely either Berrios or Meyer and then add in a good MI and maybe 1-2 other lower ranked prospects?  just as a starting point Meyer, Polanco, plus a C level prospect or two? 

 

Not going to focus too much on cost but think of what the team would look like with Hamels as our #1.  Hamels, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson is a damn fine rotation to go along with a budding offense.  Hamels wouldn't come cheap at all.  Maybe we can ship out say Pelfrey to save a few bucks in the deal as well. 

 

Now that would be a statement I could get behind.  If people want to discuss this further I can put it in a different thread too. 

[brvama]

Personally I don't subscribe to the change in the mindset theory, nor to making a statement. What it appears to me is that TR is executing his plan to bring the Twins to a level of being very competitive each year. I do think that Pohlad has assured Ryan that the money is there to use. I am confident that his plan has involve Pohlad in the development.

 

Simply, I think his strategy follows this general plan.

1. Build the talent in the minors basically through the draft.

2. Improving the talent on the roster each year through FA and/or trades.

3. Bridge the gap of developing our prospects and core with better players.

4. Add players of need when the core is ready via trade/FA signings.

5. Manage the payroll now so that needed acquisitions in the future are not limited greatly by payroll concerns.

 

While I wasn't gaga over the Santana signing it is a good signing. It fulfills #2 &3. It is part of the process.

 

ML team management is fluid. Players perform or not, injuries happen, team attractiveness varies with each player, prospects often bust, FA signings/trades sometimes fail, etc. Keeping to the strategic plan is imperative while adjusting along the way.

 

For the fans, this seems like an endless process. For me, I'd rather build the team for the long fight than a short skirmish. IMHO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nice article.

 

I don't know if this signing is a statement either, other than "we've really screwed up the starting staff the past few years, huh?"  (Actually maybe that was last offseason's statement -- this offseason's might be "we really, REALLY screwed up.")

[Mike Sixel]

If that was his plan, why not sign Santana last year.....a much better bridge for May/Meyer/Berrios would have been created? What changed?

[tobi0040]

How many more FA's are the Twins signing for this to hinder the Twin's payroll in 2017 or 2018?  Mauer, Nolasco and Santana are the only big contracts those years (and expiring by 2018).  Dozier and Plouffe are the only 2nd/3rd yr arb guys of significance.

 

I wanted to expand on the 2017 payroll. I agree that Ervin should not hinder absolutely anything moving forward.

 

I count six guys post arbitration on the 2017 team.  This assumes we extend Hughes at $18M and Dozier is making $10M.  I think those are somewhat conservative.

 

Mauer      23m

Nolasco   12m

Ervin        13m

Hughes   18m

Perkins    6.5m

Dozier     10m

 

Total 82.5m

 

Potential/guys in the mix:

 

Rotation

Gibson       Arb1

Meyer         Rookie

May            Rookie

Berrios        Rookie

Stewart       Rookie

 

Infield/DH

Sano           Rookie

Gordon       Rookie

Vargas        Rookie

 

Outfield

Hicks            Arb1

Rosario        Rookie

Arcia            Arb1

Buxton         Rookie

 

Pen

Too many rookies to list

 

If you assume every arb1 guy is still here at $3M and the rest of the roster is filled with rookies, I get a payroll of $102.5M.  

 

We had a payroll of $115M in 2010.  A modest 1.5% inflation would allow for a $128M payroll in 2017.  I have a gap of $26M. $12M off the books in 2017 (Nolasco) and $36M more after 2018 (Mauer and Ervin).

 

The timing makes perfect sense.

[Linus]

My take:

 

1. I'm glad they aren't sitting back and waiting for the farm.

2. I'm glad they are attempting to add talent to the awful pitching staff.

3. I'm not in love with the signing, but I do think it helps the team.

4. I don't think it's the dollars that might hinder the team, it's that they don't really have room for Meyer and May and Berrios now.......and they just traded for Meyer and May (leaving them w/o a CF for 2-3 years now), if those guys still aren't ready to help, that's three years with no payback.

5. I hope they have the guts to pull the plug on anyone that isn't pitching well, assuming Meyer is ready at that point (or May or Milone). If they just stick with the guys (if they are bad) because they are vets making money, that will be a bummer.

6. I'll be shocked if both Nolasco and Santana are better than league median this year, hoping to be shocked.

Mike, try to be more positive.  I'm positive you don't have to worry about #4.  Meyer or May will get the 5th spot and if the other is pitching well, they will be in the pen.  Somebody else will get hurt and then the other will get some starts.  There hasn't been a year in I don't know how long that the Twins weren't going 7-8 starters deep.  Let's save our angst for when the Twins have so many good starters that we don't know what to do with them.

 

Oh, and this assumes both Meyer and May turn out to be credible starters in the majors - surely not a certainty there either.

[tobi0040]

If that was his plan, why not sign Santana last year.....a much better bridge for May/Meyer/Berrios would have been created? What changed?

 

I think as Seth alluded to, they have seen too many prospects get hurt and wanted to hedge.  And Nolasco turned out not to be the guy you can pencil in for 200 IP and a 4.10 ERA that we thought.

 

Granted the injuries weren't all pitchers, but seeing Buxton and Sano lose a year.  Stewart was shut down, I think Meyer had some tightness in his last outing if I remember right.  I think the lets just sit on our hands and wait for the future line of thought has changed. 

 

In hindsight, they should have offered a 30 year old Ervin 4 and 48.  He probably would have taken that.  But I guess I am not shocked that in ther first real foray into free agency, the Twins did not commit $125M to three pitchers in the same off-season (already had Nolasco and Hughes signed at the time) 

[Mike Sixel]

Mike, try to be more positive.  I'm positive you don't have to worry about #4.  Meyer or May will get the 5th spot and if the other is pitching well, they will be in the pen.  Somebody else will get hurt and then the other will get some starts.  There hasn't been a year in I don't know how long that the Twins weren't going 7-8 starters deep.  Let's save our angst for when the Twins have so many good starters that we don't know what to do with them.

 

Oh, and this assumes both Meyer and May turn out to be credible starters in the majors - surely not a certainty there either.

 

I am being quite positive about Meyer and May......don't get how that isn't clear. I wish they had signed Santana last year, and made the bridge start earlier, and end earlier. He's a nice pitcher.....

[bombo]

How is it a statement to lower your payroll to $83 million where it ranked 23rd in the entire league? If making a statement in your mind led them to yet another 90+ loss season, then I believe you better reassess your definition of making a statement. I get it you try to look at things positively but at the end of the day sometimes you need to call a spade a spade. Nick - nice article. I agree in that a potential surplus in starting pitching would be a nice change. If everyone actually turns out, you can always either use the depth throughout the season with injuries or else flip one or two of them for a decent return.

[Linus]

I am being quite positive about Meyer and May......don't get how that isn't clear. I wish they had signed Santana last year, and made the bridge start earlier, and end earlier. He's a nice pitcher.....

Yes, yes you are - good work .  I, for one, hope that Meyer is the 5th starter as he clearly has the stuff to be a big leaguer, if he can just throw it over.  And between May and Milone - well, one of the two will likely step forward and put pressure on anybody not performing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think as Seth alluded to, they have seen too many prospects get hurt and wanted to hedge.  And Nolasco turned out not to be the guy you can pencil in for 200 IP and a 4.10 ERA that we thought.

Meyer was actually more seriously injured (and further away) as of last winter.  And May was barely on the radar at that point.  The aggregate 2014 performances of Hughes and Nolasco were probably close to projections for them.

 

Not an argument against signing Santana now, mind you, just an argument that signing him last winter would have been better.

[brvama]

My take:

 

1. I'm glad they aren't sitting back and waiting for the farm.

2. I'm glad they are attempting to add talent to the awful pitching staff.

3. I'm not in love with the signing, but I do think it helps the team.

4. I don't think it's the dollars that might hinder the team, it's that they don't really have room for Meyer and May and Berrios now.......and they just traded for Meyer and May (leaving them w/o a CF for 2-3 years now), if those guys still aren't ready to help, that's three years with no payback.

5. I hope they have the guts to pull the plug on anyone that isn't pitching well, assuming Meyer is ready at that point (or May or Milone). If they just stick with the guys (if they are bad) because they are vets making money, that will be a bummer.

6. I'll be shocked if both Nolasco and Santana are better than league median this year, hoping to be shocked.

 

Mike, I totally agree and these points are critical to the Twins success.

 

BTW a bit skepticism is good and I thank you for your "positive" skepticism.

 

"Shelden is immune to sarcasm."

[James]

I am being quite positive about Meyer and May......don't get how that isn't clear. I wish they had signed Santana last year, and made the bridge start earlier, and end earlier. He's a nice pitcher.....

I'm quite bullish about both of those guys.  I think May made some strides at the end of last season.  Don't get me wrong, the first few were ugly.  Ugly is an understatement.  But the last few were much better and showed promise.  I was hoping to see some Kyle Gibson-esque strides from him this year (as in a similar improvement from year one to year two).

 

I'm also hoping to see Meyer.  I don't know where they'll fit them both in, but I'm sure that will work itself out somehow.

 

As for Santana, I can say I wasn't looking forward to it, but it's already growing on me.

[tobi0040]

I'm quite bullish about both of those guys.  I think May made some strides at the end of last season.  Don't get me wrong, the first few were ugly.  Ugly is an understatement.  But the last few were much better and showed promise.  I was hoping to see some Kyle Gibson-esque strides from him this year (as in a similar improvement from year one to year two).

 

I'm also hoping to see Meyer.  I don't know where they'll fit them both in, but I'm sure that will work itself out somehow.

 

As for Santana, I can say I wasn't looking forward to it, but it's already growing on me.

 

I guess the difference for me is that I think Meyer, May, and for that matter Gibson can be #2 or #3 starters in this league.  But I know Ervin can.  Huge difference.

 

We just can't load up on I think's and hope they all turn out and stay healthy (on top of the others staying healthy as well). 

 

I think with the rotation spot, pen, inneffectiveness, and injuries.  One of Meyer and May should earn a rotation spot on April 1 and hopefully the other will start appearing from the pen and transition to another spot when someone gets hurt or falters.  Both could get 25+ starts or at least appearances this year.

Edited December 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

This move really seems like the team is hoping to compete now, however I still dont think they can if they don't have an ace.  It may be a long shot, but the team's only chance at getting an ace is to hope one of the young pitchers will turn into one. 

 

Santana's a fine pitcher, but I still think the best move was to give a full season to May and Meyer and then if one or both don't pan out, 2016 is when you go and find long term pitcher, Cueto, Latos, Zimmerman, Porcello, Fister, Kazmir, or Greinke, Samardzjia, Price for those of us with too high of expectations.  Next year's free agent class projects to be so much better.