Article: Report: Twins And Ervin Santana Agree To Four-Year Deal

[ashbury]

#54 in honor of Matt Guerrier?

[Otto von Ballpark]

To answer my own question, "why didn't we offer this to Santana last winter?"  Unfortunately, we were boxed in by fairly inexplicable 2 year deals for Correia and Pelfrey at the time.  Thankfully injury has helped us move on from the latter.

 

For that matter, why weren't we in on Santana two years ago, after 2012?  We desperately needed starting pitching by that point, and Santana was pretty much being given away by the Angels, yet I don't recall hearing us mentioned in trade rumors at the time.

 

Could have helped a lot the last two years, and also could have gotten this contract started a year earlier too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Santana season averages: 188 IP, 1.7 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR

 

In the 6 seasons since his peak performance in 2008, he is averaging 196 IP, 1.4 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR.

 

Nolasco season averages, pre-2014: 188 IP, 1.5 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR

Just out of curiosity:

 

Jeff Samardzija's 3 full season averages: 203 IP, 2.2 rWAR, 3.2 fWAR

 

David Robertson's 5 full seasons averages: 64 IP, 2.0 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR

 

Jon Lester season averages: 200 IP, 4.1 rWAR, 4.4 fWAR

[tobi0040]

A team inching towards 500. Then add potential upside of Sano. Buxton. Meyer. May. And berrios.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Put me in the Boat, that dispises this signing..... why not make a trade for Mat Latos or sign Masterson on the cheap for less years?... or several other moves than to go "all in"  with the signing of Ervin "magical" Santana.

 

 

 

I wanted guys on short term deals, but it looks pretty clear that Masterson didn't want to come here.  He reportedly wouldn't schedule a sit down with the Twins, and most people predicted that he'd receive more than he did with Boston, which indicates that he wanted to go back there to try to rebuild his value.

 

Latos is under contract for only one year though and do you really think the Twins will be contenders this year?  Why would you want to give up some nice prospects to get him in a losing year?  If the Twins want him, they can go after him as a free agent next year, no prospects attached.

[formerly33]

#54 in honor of Matt Guerrier?

Seriously, how did you ever guess?

[nicksaviking]

To answer my own question, "why didn't we offer this to Santana last winter?"  Unfortunately, we were boxed in by fairly inexplicable 2 year deals for Correia and Pelfrey at the time.  Thankfully injury has helped us move on from the latter.

 

For that matter, why weren't we in on Santana two years ago, after 2012?  We desperately needed starting pitching by that point, and Santana was pretty much being given away by the Angels, yet I don't recall hearing us mentioned in trade rumors at the time.

 

Could have helped a lot the last two years, and also could have gotten this contract started a year earlier too.

 

Right, and what changed with Santana that the Twins only offered him 3/33 last year but this year they offered 4/55 plus an option year?  A draft pick was included both times.

 

To answer my own question, the Twins were displaying more desperation this year.  Sometimes when you're back is against the wall you make great decisions that that free you from your circumstances.  Other times you make rash decisions that worsens them.  Hopefully this is the former.

[Dantes929]

Honestly if they brought it Neil Allen to work with a bunch of veteran starters they are wasting their time.  I have no doubt he can help the veterans, but his forte is working with the young guys.  They're not going to make Tommy Milone any better of a pitcher, he just throws outside because his stuff is bad.  They can help Meyer or May become better pitchers.

I see this all the time but never see the answer to my question.   Milone has the best career ERA of anyone on the staff including Santana, Hughes and Nolasco and it has all been done in the AL.  Who cares what his stuff is.    His ERA is under 4.00 in 83 starts.    It astounds me that so many on here appear to prefer guys that strike out more but give up more runs. 

[SwainZag]

Right, and what changed with Santana that the Twins only offered him 3/33 last year but this year they offered 4/55 plus an option year?  A draft pick was included both times.

 

To answer my own question, the Twins were displaying more desperation this year.  Sometimes when you're back is against the wall you make great decisions that that free you from your circumstances.  Other times you make rash decisions that worsens them.  Hopefully this is the former.

 

Last year they low balled him and hoped he would sign.  This year I think the Twins think they are in a better place than they were last year (I agree) and were willing to pay market price and give up the pick to have Santana on the team.  I would say this move wasn't out of desperation at all.

[h2oface]

Another right hander that pitches to a mediocre 4 something ERA.  And 4 years. I didn't like the Nolasco signing and I don't really like this one that much.  4 years.  I love that Ryan is finally really spending some money that has been hoarded for the last 3 years, though. Maybe this one turns out better than Nolasco. I sure hope so.  Personally, I was ready to see Meyer and May.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I'm kind of curious about what happens to Millone. I have a bad feeling it means that May will not be in the rotation this spring, as I don't see Ryan being able to trade him for much. I don't like that at all.

[HitInAPinch]

I would rather have Ervin than Liriano or McCarthy.  No doubt.  $13.5M a year is not bad for a guy that could easily be a #2 starter for at least the first two years.

I'd rather have McCarthy.  The story is the Diamondbacks wouldn't let him use his cutter.  Once he got traded to the Yankees, he started using the cutter again.  His line with the Yanks was 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts after the trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I see this all the time but never see the answer to my question.   Milone has the best career ERA of anyone on the staff including Santana, Hughes and Nolasco and it has all been done in the AL.  Who cares what his stuff is.    His ERA is under 4.00 in 83 starts.

League/park factors and sample size, my friend.

 

Milone has an career ERA- of 103 (100 is average, lower is better).  Not bad, but in only 490 IP and trending worse every year of his career (94 - 107 - 112 the past three years).

 

Santana is 101 in almost 4 times the innings.  Hughes is 104 with double the innings and trending better.

 

If you want to get into peripherals and FIP-, Milone is easily the worst of the bunch at 108 and has gotten significantly worse in this mark every year (all the way to 126 last year, which would equate to about Kevin Correia's near 5.00 ERA last year).

 

Now, as I've said before, I don't advocate cutting Milone or anything drastic, I am just not going to hold a rotation spot open for him at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last year they low balled him and hoped he would sign.  This year I think the Twins think they are in a better place than they were last year (I agree) and were willing to pay market price and give up the pick to have Santana on the team.  I would say this move wasn't out of desperation at all.

I know they low-balled him last year -- but why?  Because we felt the need to guarantee Pelfrey two years earlier in the offseason?  Because we felt the need to guarantee Correia two years the previous offseason?  (Although we still had a rotation spot up for grabs in both 2013 and 2014 even with those two penciled in.)

 

We may be a year closer to contention this year, but there is no question we could have benefitted from Santana last year (and even more so the year prior).

 

I won't harp on it too much, but I thought it was interesting because Santana is a guy who has basically been on the market three straight offseasons, and the Twins went from little apparent interest to low-ball offer to market rate offer in those three years.  Ultimately reactive rather than proactive?

[sorney]

I know they low-balled him last year -- but why?  Because we felt the need to guarantee Pelfrey two years earlier in the offseason?  Because we felt the need to guarantee Correia two years the previous offseason?  (Although we still had a rotation spot up for grabs in both 2013 and 2014 even with those two penciled in.)

 

We may be a year closer to contention this year, but there is no question we could have benefitted from Santana last year (and even more so the year prior).

 

I won't harp on it too much, but I thought it was interesting because Santana is a guy who has basically been on the market three straight offseasons, and the Twins went from little apparent interest to low-ball offer to market rate offer in those three years.  Ultimately reactive rather than proactive?

Probably reactive...but I'm guessing because they figured their pitching would be in a better place by now, and it's not.  Looks like TR bit the bullet because pitching hasn't turned out as he had hoped.  Which is exactly why signing Santana/Nolasco/Hughes, even if it has the potential to *block young prospects*, makes sense.  Pitchers/pitching is too fickle to plan too far ahead

[nicksaviking]

Levi,

 

They really missed on Meyer though. He didn't give up a single earned run for the twins. He was en fuego

 

At least they had him in the rotation, unlike certain reality based models.

[nicksaviking]

Displaying digits after the decimal point: shame on them.

 

Paying any attention to digits after the decimal point: shame on you.

 

If they think there is any value in what they do, it's not what comes after the decimal point.  Judge them on that.  (Which, I assume, is actually what you are doing - just not saying.)

 

Man, I feel like an idiot! I've been diving too deep into these numbers all this time!  I get it now though, I'm going to just round to the nearest whole number and OPS should really look like binary code; you either get a 1 or you get a 0.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Probably reactive...but I'm guessing because they figured their pitching would be in a better place by now, and it's not.  Looks like TR bit the bullet because pitching hasn't turned out as he had hoped.  Which is exactly why signing Santana/Nolasco/Hughes, even if it has the potential to *block young prospects*, makes sense.  Pitchers/pitching is too fickle to plan too far ahead

I agree that Santana is an OK signing, but this suggests TR inexplicably learned this lesson a few years late?

 

Still feels like is a bit of a catch-up signing, especially egregious because our SP shortage has been so acute the last 3 years.

[sorney]

I agree that Santana is an OK signing, but this suggests TR inexplicably learned this lesson a few years late?

 

Still feels like is a bit of a catch-up signing, especially egregious because our SP shortage has been so acute the last 3 years.

I'm not disagreeing, just happy that he is *catching up* rather than to ignore the problem

[tobi0040]

I'd rather have McCarthy.  The story is the Diamondbacks wouldn't let him use his cutter.  Once he got traded to the Yankees, he started using the cutter again.  His line with the Yanks was 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts after the trade.

 

Giving a guy that has averaged less than 100 IP over ten years and has a career ERA of over 4.00, a four year deal is wreckless in my opinion.

 

His ERA in 2013 was 4.50 and in 2014 was 4.05.

 

Even if we go off a small sample size in 2014, he still has the health issues.  You can take a shot on the same production from Anderson or Masterson on a 1 year deal. Really no reason to give that guy 4-48.

Edited December 12, 2014 by tobi0040

[diehardtwinsfan]

did

Giving a guy that has averaged less than 100 IP over ten years and has a career ERA of over 4.00, a four year deal is wreckless in my opinion.

 

His ERA in 2013 was 4.50 and in 2014 was 4.05.

 

Even if we go off a small sample size in 2014, he still has the health issues.  You can take a shot on the same production from Anderson or Masterson on a 1 year deal. Really no reason to give that guy 4-48.

He has 1884 career ML innings in 10 seasons averaging 188 IP/season. That's the definition of a workhorse. Not very many guys will do that in their careers, including many of the names thrown about these boards.

 

Also, the ERA should always be taken into context as pitchers typically struggle their first few years in the big leagues and do on occasion get hurt. Santana dealt with both. He's been below a 4.0 ERA 4 of the last 5 seasons and 5 of the last 7 seasons. Yes, he had a couple of clunkers in there, but they are pretty far in his past also.

[tobi0040]

did

He has 1884 career ML innings in 10 seasons averaging 188 IP/season. That's the definition of a workhorse. Not very many guys will do that in their careers, including many of the names thrown about these boards.

 

Also, the ERA should always be taken into context as pitchers typically struggle their first few years in the big leagues and do on occasion get hurt. Santana dealt with both. He's been below a 4.0 ERA 4 of the last 5 seasons and 5 of the last 7 seasons. Yes, he had a couple of clunkers in there, but they are pretty far in his past also.

 

Diehard,

 

My post was in reference to Mccarthy, someone said they would rather have him and I was refuting that cliam based on Mccarthys sub 1,000 IP in 10 years, in addition to his actual production.  I agree Ervin is a workhorse.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if pairing Santana with Pinto would work. Suzuki wore down with the workload they gave him last year. They need Pinto to fit in somewhere and keep Suzuki closer to 100 starts. I would think if Pinto is going to develop into the catcher they need, it is going to be a veteran with command like Santana.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Diehard,

 

My post was in reference to Mccarthy, someone said they would rather have him and I was refuting that cliam based on Mccarthys sub 1,000 IP in 10 years, in addition to his actual production.  I agree Ervin is a workhorse.

My bad. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wonder if pairing Santana with Pinto would work. Suzuki wore down with the workload they gave him last year. They need Pinto to fit in somewhere and keep Suzuki closer to 100 starts. I would think if Pinto is going to develop into the catcher they need, it is going to be a veteran with command like Santana.

 

I really hope that Suzuki and Pinto split the load this year.  Pinto has proven all he can at AAA and needs to work with ML pitching.  I still think he can be a pretty good catcher and I don't want t see the Twins wasting options letting him destroy AAA pitching when they are going to need a 2nd C anyways.  It probably wouldn't hurt to have him get a LF and 1B glove so that he can do some occasional fill in work and occasionally DH, but he really needs to be playing in Minnesota all year this year.

[tobi0040]

I really hope that Suzuki and Pinto split the load this year.  Pinto has proven all he can at AAA and needs to work with ML pitching.  I still think he can be a pretty good catcher and I don't want t see the Twins wasting options letting him destroy AAA pitching when they are going to need a 2nd C anyways.  It probably wouldn't hurt to have him get a LF and 1B glove so that he can do some occasional fill in work and occasionally DH, but he really needs to be playing in Minnesota all year this year.

 

One would hink Nolasco and Ervin don't need a ton of guidance from their catcher.  Pinto could catch those guys.

[nicksaviking]

John Heyman is now reporting that there are actually 2 vesting option seasons.  The second is vested at $14 million if he pitchers 400 IP in the 2018-2019 seasons, so that would be the final year of his guaranteed contract and his first option year.

[tobi0040]

John Heyman is now reporting that there are actually 2 vesting option seasons.  The second is vested at $14 million if he pitchers 400 IP in the 2018-2019 seasons, so that would be the final year of his guaranteed contract and his first option year.

 

I actually like the vesting options.  Obviously not as good as a team option.  But the risk with a 35-36 year old pitchr is health.  If he is pitching 200 plus seasons then that risk is zero.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It would be pretty impressive if Ervin Santana pitches 400 innings over those two years considering the Twins' best pitcher didn't throw that many this season.

 

Unlike Hughes, Santana has reached the milestone 5 times in the past and was just 4 innings shy in 2014, so I guess it's more likely than some things, but still pretty unlikely that either option will vest.

[Mike Sixel]

It would be pretty impressive if Ervin Santana pitches 400 innings over those two years considering the Twins' best pitcher didn't throw that many this season.

 

Unlike Hughes, Santana has reached the milestone 5 times in the past and was just 4 innings shy in 2014, so I guess it's more likely than some things, but still pretty unlikely that either option will vest.

 

Partly depends on how Molitor manages the bullpen usage, I'd think, among many other things. We can't even guess on that right now.