Article: Twins Select JR Graham, Lose Gilmartin

[Seth Stohs]

The 2014 Rule 5 draft is complete. The Twins both added and lost a player in the AAA portion of the MLB draft. With the fifth pick in the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins selected RHP JR Graham from the Atlanta Braves. Several picks later, the Twins lost Sean Gilmartin when he was selected by the New York Mets.The Minnesota Twins selected JR Graham, a RHP from the Braves. A former top prospect in the pitching-strong Braves organization, he was able to throw 100 mph. However, shoulder problems the last two years greatly reduced his fastball, but he did pitch some in 2014. A good risk for a high-ceiling pitcher. The question is, will his velocity come back?

 

Later in the draft, the Twins lost LHP Sean Gilmartin to the New York Mets. He came to the Twins from the Braves a year ago in exchange for Ryan Doumit. He split the 2014 season between New Britain and Rochester. He was the player most were concerned about the Twins not protecting. The former first-round pick lost some of his velocity and rarely reached 92 on the radar gun, but he does have a good four-pitch mix.

 

It will be interesting to see if the Twins keep Graham through the 2015 season or if he is returned to the Braves. Likewise, will the Mets choose to keep Gilmartin on their active roster?

 

In the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft, the Twins added RHP Greg Peavey from the New York Mets organization and lost LHP Matt Tomshaw to the Marlins. These players do not have to be offered back.

 

Peavey went 11-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 18 starts in AA last year. In 115 innings, he walked 26 and struck out 99. In six starts in AAA, he posted an ERA of 11.62.

 

Tomshaw heads to the Miami Marlins organization. He went 11-6 with a 3.50 ERA for the Ft. Myers Miracle in 2014.

 

No draft picks were made in the AA portion of the Rule 5 draft.

 

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[davidc3915]

Graham pitched for the High-A Lynchburg Hillcats and Double-A Mississippi Braves in 2012 and 2013. He went 12–2 with a 2.80 earned run average and 110 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched.[3][4] Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Graham as the 93rd best prospect in baseball.

[nytwinsfan]

I mean, if his shoulder fully recovers, then he probably has a lot of upside. If not, maybe still a long reliever?

[tobi0040]

Complete minor numbers.  Not a ton of k's, great control. Go figure

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=graham001jon

[Otto von Ballpark]

In the minor league phase, Twins add Greg Peavey from the Mets system:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peavey001gre

 

Twins also Matt Tomshaw in the minor league phase:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tomsha000mat

[minnesota transplant]

like this.  Alot of upside!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Can Graham dial it up out of the bullpen?  He was kind of a modest K, control guy before his injury.

[goulik]

Lost my audio right after Thomshaw was picked by Miami... Was that the end of the Minnesota connections?

[goulik]

Aaarggghhh!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Lost my audio right after Thomshaw was picked by Miami... Was that the end of the Minnesota connections?

I think so.  I haven't heard any others.

[markos]

I wonder if the Twins will end up regreting hanging onto Duensing for another season over protecting Gilmartin. 

[Dman]

I am not in love with the pick but given what was left to pick from it probably makes the most sense.  I don't think the Brave would have left him unprotected if they thought he had great potential.  The Braves must believe he will only have average stuff at best.  The Braves are usually right.  They were right about Diamond and Gillmartin and I suspect they will be right about Graham.  I guess time will tell.

 

I was hoping the speedster would fall.  Always nice to have those fast pinch runners for when the other team walks the slow HR hitter.  If the guys bat got better over time then that would make it a really good pick.  Oh well we still have a lot of fun players to watch anyway.

[DaveW]

I wonder if the Twins will end up regreting hanging onto Duensing for another season over protecting Gilmartin. 

Doubftul. Gilmartin was pretty far down on the list of potential arms the Twins would need to call upon and didn't have at on of upside anyways.

[DaveW]

I am not in love with the pick but given what was left to pick from it probably makes the most sense.  I don't think the Brave would have left him unprotected if they thought he had great potential.  The Braves must believe he will only have average stuff at best.  The Braves are usually right.  They were right about Diamond and Gillmartin and I suspect they will be right about Graham.  I guess time will tell.

 

I was hoping the speedster would fall.  Always nice to have those fast pinch runners for when the other team walks the slow HR hitter.  If the guys bat got better over time then that would make it a really good pick.  Oh well we still have a lot of fun players to watch anyway.

Say what you want about Diamond, but the Twins did get 2.4 WAR out of him a couple years ago. That alone makes him a really nice "snag" in the rule 5/later trade.

 

I like the Graham pick up, its the definition of a no risk/high reward type play. Even if he doesn't fully recover his prospect status/100 MPH fastball he still could slot into the bullpen. The Twins aren't going to be real competitive anyways, and stashing a guy in the bullpen isn't a hard thing to do even if you are competitive. I look forward to watching him pitch (much more so then Swarzak and the other "long" guys of years past)

[Danchat]

I don't think the Twins really wanted to keep Gilmartin. Too bad it turns out we got nothing for Ryan Doumit, but he wasn't worth much in the first place.

[lightfoot789]

Tomshaw will be the biggest loss from the 2 pitchers.  Miami found a knuckle ball gem.  Chattanooga Lookouts vs Jacksonville Suns (Miami) in early April.  Look forwad to the match up.  Underrated Prospect

[James]

Remember, Gilmartin has to stick with the team for the entire year or be returned, and most Rule V guys don't stick with their selected team.  I'm betting that Gilmartin will be back in the Twins organization before the end of the year.  Most likely, before the end of spring training. 

[KGB]

Twins really love Braves pitchers.  Scouting department needs to travel a little bit more.

[nicksaviking]

I'd rather have Duensing for one season. Gilmartin is a soft tossers who will get eaten alive in the pen. Eaten alive in the rotation too. He'll be back by April.

[DaveW]

I don't think the Twins really wanted to keep Gilmartin. Too bad it turns out we got nothing for Ryan Doumit, but he wasn't worth much in the first place.

Freeing up the roster spot (and to a lesser extent the money) was a win it of itself. It allowed the Twins to give  at bats to guys like Cola, Vargas, Pinto, etc to evaluate them for future needs/spots.

[DaveW]

I'd rather have Duensing for one season. Gilmartin is a soft tossers who will get eaten alive in the pen. Eaten alive in the rotation too. He'll be back by April.

Agreed, Duensing is nothing particularly special, but he has been proven to be at least averagely effective in a major league bullpen which does have value.

[Seth Stohs]

I wonder if the Twins will end up regreting hanging onto Duensing for another season over protecting Gilmartin. 

 

Nope, otherwise they would have protected Gilmartin.

[gunnarthor]

I like this pick, I might have gone with Cody Martin over Graham.  Still, I like the idea of seeing what we might have in Graham.  A pitcher coming back from injuries does have some red flags but if he does come all the way back, he could be pretty good.  If not, he could be a strong pen piece.

[Seth Stohs]

Vern Followell says that they had him at 97 and even 98 this year. They had no indications or reports of any shoulder issues in 2014. If he'll stick with the Twins, it'll be as a reliever this year. 

[Minnesota Boy]

Gilmartin might not be a hard thrower or the most spectacular pitcher ever, but he is valuable in that the Twins don't have a lot of Left-handed starters.  Losing two of them in the Rule V could leave them pretty thin if they don't get Gilmartin back (which they probably will).

[Mike Sixel]

Hope they put him in the 'pen, and let him throw hard.......

[dxpavelka]

Remember, Gilmartin has to stick with the team for the entire year or be returned, and most Rule V guys don't stick with their selected team.  I'm betting that Gilmartin will be back in the Twins organization before the end of the year.  Most likely, before the end of spring training. 

If he's not good enough to stick with them, should we be excited to get him back?

[tobi0040]

Here is a fantasy profile on Graham:

 

Position: RHP
DOB: 01/14/1990
Height/Weight: 6’0” 195 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 4th round, 2011 draft, Santa Clara University (Santa Clara, CA)
Previous Ranking: #4 (Org)
2014 Stats: 5.55 ERA (71.1 IP, 79 H, 50 K, 26 BB) at Double-A Mississippi
The Tools: 7 FB; 6 SL; 5 potential CH

 

What Happened in 2014: Graham’s return from shoulder injury was marred by inconsistency and loud questions about the overall profile.
 

Strengths: Good strength despite average size; balanced delivery; fluid arm action; heavy fastball at 92-94; sinking action with arm-side life; tough to barrel cleanly in lower tier; able to reach for more and selectively elevate past hitters; feels slider well; cutter action to the pitch; sharp, late break across zone; can miss bats; flashes feel for changeup; shows quality action despite harder velocity (85-87); command of all three pitches; comes right after hitters .
 

Weaknesses: Not the best of downhill throwers; fastball loses movement in upper tier; can struggle to finish delivery; will leave heater up in the zone where it is more hittable; must work down to get most out of movement; slider lacks off-the-table break; needs more depth to be true chase pitch; change blurs with fastball in upper band (87-89); loses action and floats; questions on return from shoulder injury still linger; seemed to lack trust in 2014.
 

Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3/4 starter
Realistic Role: 5; late-innings reliever (setup)
 

Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 152 1/3 Double-A innings; shoulder injury in 2013
 

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: With an imminent ETA, Graham is still a top-5 fantasy prospect in this system, even with the belief that he’s likely a reliever at the major-league level. If he can make the rotation work, there would be strikeout potential, and he could be a high-end reliever, if healthy.
 

The Year Ahead: The right-hander seemed to still be feeling the fallout of his 2013 shoulder injury. When on, Graham comes right after hitters with two plus-to-better pitches, in the form of a heavy fastball and darting slider. The heater is an outstanding offering in the lower tier of the zone, with strong downward action and good velocity that makes it a tough pitch to fully square up. Graham can then change the angle and eye level on batters by frequently working the slider into sequences. The late break also makes it tougher to fully barrel. Things can go awry for the 24-year-old when the fastball is creeping too far above the middle of the thighs, where the good movement diminishes and it’s on the flat side. This was more of a trend this past season for the righty. Most sources spoken to for this list thought that Graham most likely slots in a relief role at the ultimate level. I’m not ready to fully rule out a chance he’ll stick in a starting role, but a big rebound is needed to prove it.
 

Major league ETA: Late 2015

 

The nit I have to pick here is that he has a 7 fastball and a 6 slider, potentially a 5 change yet projects as a #5 starter?  Seems like he would project better than that. 

Edited December 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[goulik]

Tomshaw will be the biggest loss from the 2 pitchers.  Miami found a knuckle ball gem.  Chattanooga Lookouts vs Jacksonville Suns (Miami) in early April.  Look forwad to the match up.  Underrated Prospect

Miami has to keep him in AAA don't they?

[DaveW]

If he's not good enough to stick with them, should we be excited to get him back?

Excited is the wrong word, but just because he doesn't "stick" in the majors for a full season may or may not have much to do with his current or future potential.