Article: Is The Rotation Already Full?

[ashbury]

If by full, you mean in the same way my wallet is full because there's twenty $1 bills in there...no room for $5's, $10's, $20's, or heaven forbid Benjamin's, then yeah. It's full.

If you're worried you can't give your money away, we should talk.  Ones aren't beneath my dignity where donations are concerned.

[DocBauer]

It is filled...but not yet full.

 

It could be at some point early, mid or late if and when May and Meyer are both up and in and performing. And I want to see the kids as well.

 

But the Twins are also a professional ML franchise that needs to win as well. To that end, assuming the obvious we're not making the big $20M per ace signing, they need to sign Masterson or Santana. Those two are quality #2-3 guys who can make a difference. NO #4-5 guys! If you're even thinking it...STOP and just play a youngster and grow with him. He'd probably do as well or better anyway.

 

If not one of those two guys, and no backend stopgap speedbumps, there are a lot of post injury options that could be had on the cheap with some nice high-side potential.

[ScrapTheNickname]

I presume Scott Baker is healthy and available. He just turned 33. Last year in limited duty he had a WHIP of 1.19 and a 3.93 SO/W ratio. His ERA was high, but I imagine he would come cheap on a one-year deal.

 

Has he been written off? If so, why?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I presume Scott Baker is healthy and available. He just turned 33. Last year in limited duty he had a WHIP of 1.19 and a 3.93 SO/W ratio. His ERA was high, but I imagine he would come cheap on a one-year deal.

 

Has he been written off? If so, why?

Is he fully healthy yet?  He couldn't stick in a pretty decimated Texas rotation this past season, so I can't imagine anyone is too high on him at the moment, or it's still a fairly dicey question of health.

[James Richter]

Anybody they bring in needs to raise the floor of the rotation - push Milone and Pelfrey further down the depth chart. In the 2nd half alone, Swarzak, Milone, Pino, Correia, Johnson and Darnell combined to make 24 starts worth 0.6 WAR and average 4.2 IP/GS. Having multiple options at Rochester who could actually contribute above replacement level when one of the top 5 goes down would certainly help, particularly if their skill set enables them to avoid the OF defense as much as possible (i.e. high K/9 and GB%).

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

 

Brett Anderson, Justin Masterson, Brandon McCarthy, Edinson Volquez, Frankie, Ervin Santana are probably the best Twins fans can hope for this offseason.

 

I watched McCarthy a couple times last year on TV.  I would sign him in a heartbeat, if I actually thought he'd come to MN.  Then again, the Yanks aren't the Yanks anymore.  Maybe??

[Dantes929]

If by full, you mean in the same way my wallet is full because there's twenty $1 bills in there...no room for $5's, $10's, $20's, or heaven forbid Benjamin's, then yeah. It's full.

Fair analogy if the staff were full of Correia and Pelfrey.    With Meyer, May, Gibson and Milone you have some folded up bearer bonds that could be worth anywhere from $5 to $50.   

[Dantes929]

Anybody they bring in needs to raise the floor of the rotation - push Milone and Pelfrey further down the depth chart. In the 2nd half alone, Swarzak, Milone, Pino, Correia, Johnson and Darnell combined to make 24 starts worth 0.6 WAR and average 4.2 IP/GS. Having multiple options at Rochester who could actually contribute above replacement level when one of the top 5 goes down would certainly help, particularly if their skill set enables them to avoid the OF defense as much as possible (i.e. high K/9 and GB%).

Again, Milone has the best major league resume on the entire staff and I don't think 83 starts should be looked at too small a sample size to consider.    Was he hurt?  What am I missing?    His career numbers in the AL look way better than Nolasco or Pelfrey and they pitched in the NL.  

[Brandon]

If we start both May and Meyer in the rotation are you comfortable with May, Millone and Pino as our top options to come in and pitch?  I think the Twins prefer another veteran for at least half a season if nothing else like Corriea this year.  I hope we don't resign him.  So what I am saying is I bet the Twins prefer the extra depth so we don't end up relying on players who don't belong in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

The problem with that depth is that it usually means you keep the better, younger, guy in AAA. I want the best players here, not waiting in AAA in case (when) someone gets hurt or struggles. 

[LaBombo]

If a guy is hurt, he's hurt. It's hard to hold it against him. And that point applies to another pitcher who stands as a barrier for external additions to the rotation: Mike Pelfrey.

 

The big right-hander is owed $5.5 million. His two-year deal was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time, and looks worse now that the first season was a total loss, but Pelfrey also was hurt. The Twins believed in him enough to re-sign him a year ago, so they'll surely give him a chance to make good on the contract. I think he'd make more sense in the bullpen, but who knows if the team sees it that way.

 

Having $8 million tied up in those two -- with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson already entrenched -- complicates the idea of handing some free agent a guaranteed contract of any magnitude.

 

I don't think the Twins are that interested in it, and really, I can't blame them. I'd just as soon let Milone and Pelfrey battle for a spot, and give the other to Trevor May or Alex Meyer, rather than throwing a bunch of money at someone like Edinson Volquez or Ryan Vogelsong.

 

 

Click here to view the article

 

If Nolasco is "entrenched", then Gibson is in a heavily fortified CP bunker.

 

Hughes is here, playing Wargames with WOPR until pitchers and catchers report.

http://www.imfromdenver.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/cheyenne-mountain-complex-colorado-springs-colorado.jpg

 

 

Meanwhile, Pelfrey is jumping up and down in plain sight of enemy lines wearing a bullseye T-shirt and holding a 'Shoot Me' sign above his head.  If the Twins are counting on him to make any contribution whatsoever, let alone hold down a rotation spot, it will be very disappointing.

 

Give the guy a shot at a bullpen role and see what he can do.  Maybe the lesser workload and the ability to let it fly, combined with potentially improved health, will do him some good.  By all accounts he is a good guy who is highly motivated and respected by his teammates, making him easy to root for.

 

But if the Twins are even considering handing Pelfrey a rotation spot based on a few meaningless spring training innings, there are at least two problems that come to mind.

 

First, it's an additional sign (the Hunter acquisition being the most discouraging) that the Twins are planning on mailing in the 2015 season.  Second, it's further evidence that they steadfastly refuse to stop the doomed practice of microsample exhibition games as a primary tool for player evaluation and roster construction.

 

Having been a bit of a pessimist (watch for me at the Understatement Awards) about the Twins recently, the first issue is neither surprising nor a huge letdown to me.

 

So the second is the more troubling.  Aside from the admirable toils of Jack Goin, this franchise has exhibited an attitude toward modern metrics that spans a range from casual disdain to lukewarm interest to shocking ignorance to outright contempt.

 

It's not surprising that the Twins have been strongly influenced by a running 25+  year narrative about a David out-scouting, out-hustling, and generally out-contrarian-ing MLB's Goliaths.  If people keep telling you you're great at something because of how you do it, how hard would you try to tell yourself they're wrong?

 

But baseball metrics have evolved from the age of alchemy in the late 80's to the Newtonian physics phase they're in now.  And the Twins are having a tough time adapting.  Based apparently almost solely on the eye candy scouting tests administered in spring training, they've brought players north who could probably be improved upon with guys in the Twin Cities who have never played in the majors.

 

There's probably a '25th man irrelevancy' slant to this discussion that I'm missing.  That being said, if Pelfrey gets a spot in the rotation because he whiffs some washup three times in one start who was cut from the Nippon Ham Fighters or the Lansing Lugnuts in a game that the big wheel in the Twins scouting machine happens to be watching, it's going to be challenging to get behind some of their upcoming personnel moves.

Edited December 6, 2014 by LaBombo

[jokin]

If Nolasco is "entrenched", then Gibson is in a heavily fortified CP bunker.

 

Hughes is here, playing Wargames with WOPR until pitchers and catchers report.

http://www.imfromdenver.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/cheyenne-mountain-complex-colorado-springs-colorado.jpg

 

 

Meanwhile, Pelfrey is jumping up and down in plain sight of enemy lines wearing a bullseye T-shirt and holding a 'Shoot Me' sign above his head.  If the Twins are counting on him to make any contribution whatsoever, let alone hold down a rotation spot, it will be very disappointing.

 

Give the guy a shot at a bullpen role and see what he can do.  Maybe the lesser workload and the ability to let it fly, combined with potentially improved health, will do him some good.  By all accounts he is a good guy who is highly motivated and respected by his teammates, making him easy to root for.

 

But if the Twins are even considering handing Pelfrey a rotation spot based on a few meaningless spring training innings, there are at least two problems that come to mind.

 

First, it's an additional sign (the Hunter acquisition being the most discouraging) that the Twins are planning on mailing in the 2015 season.  Second, it's further evidence that they steadfastly refuse to stop the doomed practice of microsample exhibition games as a primary tool for player evaluation and roster construction.

 

Having been a bit of a pessimist (watch for me at the Understatement Awards) about the Twins recently, the first issue is neither surprising nor a huge letdown to me.

 

So the second is the more troubling.  Aside from the admirable toils of Jack Goin, this franchise has exhibited an attitude toward modern metrics that spans a range from casual disdain to lukewarm interest to shocking ignorance to outright contempt.

 

It's not surprising that the Twins have been strongly influenced by a running 25+  year narrative about a David out-scouting, out-hustling, and generally out-contrarian-ing MLB's Goliaths.  If people keep telling you you're great at something because of how you do it, how hard would you try to tell yourself they're wrong?

 

But baseball metrics have evolved from the age of alchemy in the late 80's to the Newtonian physics phase they're in now.  And the Twins are having a tough time adapting.  Based apparently almost solely on the eye candy scouting tests administered in spring training, they've brought players north who could probably be improved upon with guys in the Twin Cities who have never played in the majors.

 

There's probably a '25th man irrelevancy' slant to this discussion that I'm missing.  That being said, if Pelfrey gets a spot in the rotation because he whiffs some washup three times in one start who was cut from the Nippon Ham Fighters or the Lansing Lugnuts in a game that the big wheel in the Twins scouting machine happens to be watching, it's going to be challenging to get behind some of their upcoming personnel moves.

 

Hoo-whee... and +100!  With that many golden nuggets in one post, it's obvious to me that you've been on hiatus for too long. This one has me still howling:

 

 

Meanwhile, Pelfrey is jumping up and down in plain sight of enemy lines wearing a bullseye T-shirt and holding a 'Shoot Me' sign above his head. 

 

Welcme back Bombo... and don't be a stranger... or you'll miss claiming the trophy for the TD Understater of the Year Awards^TM.  You must get Wi-Fi inside of Cheyenne Mountain, right?

Edited December 6, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

Ihttp://www.imfromdenver.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/cheyenne-mountain-complex-colorado-springs-colorado.jpg

 

 

But baseball metrics have evolved from the age of alchemy in the late 80's to the Newtonian physics phase they're in now.  And the Twins are having a tough time adapting.  Based apparently almost solely on the eye candy scouting tests administered in spring training, they've brought players north who could probably be improved upon with guys in the Twin Cities who have never played in the majors.

 

 

By the time the Twins get on board with accepting that Moore's Law must be acknowledged and adhered to, to be able to compete on a level playing field, the Law itself will be obsolete, replaced by some Quantum Mechanical re-ordering of baseball at the sub-atomic level.

 

And they already have fulfilled somewhat your Twin Cities corollary to their cherished Alchemist Theory of Small Market Baseball Success, with the emergence of former St Paul Saint, Caleb Thielbar, and maybe Mark Hamburger not so far behind?

Edited December 6, 2014 by jokin

[LaBombo]

 

Welcme back Bombo... and don't be a stranger... or you'll miss claiming the trophy for the TD Understater of the Year Awards^TM.  You must get Wi-Fi inside of Cheyenne Mountain, right?

Not in the bathroom, unfortunately, which is where I mostly do my best TD'ing.  Ok in the war room if I wave the iPad around in the air, especially if I act like I just don't care. But if my role as an occasional and ineffectual Twins analyst were on the line, I'd p!ss on a spark plug if I thought it would help.  Happy holidays!

Edited December 6, 2014 by LaBombo

[LaBombo]

Lagging on likes for your posts I've been trying to get caught up on, as well as some of the other great regular contributors here.  Well done.  And your point about the Twins' tapping of the metro area's food-monikered baseball talent is well taken.  This year Mark Hamburger, next year... Mike Carp!!!

 

Meant Trout.  F#@%.   I hate getting rusty.

[goulik]

I do not remember the source of the numbers or exact numbers at all but I do remember there being a long discussion on TD about payroll as a % of revenue last Fall and when all things were factored in, Ryan's budget was in the 110-120 range. Pohlad said he wanted Ryan to spend more last off season than he did and Ryan has pushed the idea that he tried to spend more last off season.

 

All that to say I don't think the recent payroll has anything to do with determining payroll constraints this year. I believe Ryan has the green light to go North of 100 million and possibly even to 110-120 range.

 

Sports fact. Winning teams usually fill seats (South Florida teams always an exception) Pohlad wants his seats filled. Fan favorite names like Hunter will do that also but only for a short time if we keep losing. They know this and want to improve the starting pitching.

 

Ryan has been pretty consistent over the years of signing positions he said were needs. We will get a starter this offseason. The question really is how will we acquire that SP. Trade? Big Name free agent? Reclamation project? There is our angst, not the payroll.

[Thrylos]

A rotation that has been the worst in baseball or close to it for a while is never full.  The 40-man roster is full, but about 10 of those players or so are at replacement level.   On paper it is full, but on reality there is (huge) room for improvement.  It will take Ryan trading a couple people to reduce the logjam, and the ability of Ryan to do so, is another story.  

 

Now, whether he should he go out and (try to) get an ace, is a different story.  As far as I am concerned, a 20+M/year pitcher is lipstick on a pig of 99+96+96+92 losses (as is their closer as well.)   I'd rather see him play the kids, see whether Nolasco's issues were health- or Andy-related.   A rotation of Meyer, Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May/Milone (with the loser of the 5th spot and Pelfrey in the pen,) will not be that bad at all, if Meyer and Nolasco pitch the way they can.  But Ryan will likely take Meyer out of the equation, have him start at AAA and sign the Correia or Ponson or Tewksbury or Morgan du jour to fill that spot.  That's his MO. 

[jcphitman]

This was a great article! Nick, thanks for writing. Very good perspective. It would be hard to blame the Twins if they didn't add a pitcher. They have enough money involved in who is on the roster. I think they will probably add someone anyway (not a top name as discussed in the article ... someone who might be coming off an injury). I could also see them trying to sell off Pelf to a team that doesn't get the arm they want or a team that needs a pitcher on the back end. We'll see what happens. If there is a lack of activity on the pitching front, this will be the reason why.

[sploorp]

I agree, if we are just going to sign a middling of the road pitcher, we already have a plethora of them. It would be like using the word redundant twice in the same sentence! Not mentioned was what caliber or level of pitcher would come here at this time? The outfield is going to be weak in the corners, and totally unknown in CF. The SS is untested, or back in CF, where he did not remind me of Torii Hunter! And the catcher is lowly rated both defensively and in pitch framing metrics. This is not going to be an ERA saving defense. Throw in a new coaching staff, and as a FA pitcher, there have to be better destinations.

 

I totally agree on the middling pitcher statement, but as for the type of pitcher that could be lured here, the obvious to me would be a high upside guy coming of an injury.  After how well Hughes worked out, I'll bet there's a lot of guys out there that could be swayed.  My first pick would be Bret Anderson.

[Platoon]

If by full, you mean in the same way my wallet is full because there's twenty $1 bills in there...no room for $5's, $10's, $20's, or heaven forbid Benjamin's, then yeah. It's full.

You have actually touched on the core issue with almost the entire Twins 25 man roster. A lot of soft, easy to manage, middling talent. Almost all are of major league caliber! But it is not possible to win with them all in the same clubhouse! That's not a knock on the players, it's a commentary on the FO philosophy!

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Every indication from offseason rumors are that that Twins will be pushing hard to sign another Starter this week, which is only going to further muddy the picture.

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Meyer

Pelfrey

Milone

 

Some Random Free Agent Dude

 

The S.R.F.A.D.  should be better than at least five of the names on the list, or there's really not much point in offering the contract. The Vogelsong rumors are extremely troubling to me - I feel like the Twins have not learned from their past decade of signing N.L. free agents. These guys are not improving the rotation. Correia is an exception, though even he regressed from his NL numbers and was good mostly in comparison to how bad the rest of the rotation was.

[ashbury]

The S.R.F.A.D.  should be better than at least five of the names on the list, or there's really not much point in offering the contract. The Vogelsong rumors are extremely troubling to me

 

One way a Vogelsong signing would make sense to me is if Nolasco and the Twins have mutually soured on each other and Ryan has a deal in place to move him.  Such a deal would probably involve almost nothing in return, assuming the other team takes on the full salary, and in that case Vogelsong might be viewed as providing similar performance at a lower cost to the Twins.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I had a similar feeling about Pinto that I now have about Meyer and May.

 

If the Twins aren't going to give their aging prospects innings or at bats, they should trade them for someone they will actually put on the field. (Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Stewart, etc are still young, I'm not saying they should be traded this year if they aren't promoted, but for Meyer/May/Pinto/Santana/Vargas/Arcia - now's the time)

 

Put them on the field or get something back for them!

[Cris E]

They have the middle and back of the rotation covered in depth, so the only space is in front.  They need a #1 to put in front of Hughes Nolasco Gibson May and anyone else looking for innings.  None of those names mentioned above make any sense in front of Hughes or between Gibson and the approaching talent like Mayer and Berrios.  We've got 2-4-4-4-youth so we need someone in front or just spend on OF defense and wait for the kids.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

There is a mystery team offering Lester 7 years ...

[Willihammer]

Sorry to burst your bubble Kirb but I think "Mystery team" = Astros

 

It would be cool to be a mystery team just once though.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry to burst your bubble Kirb but I think "Mystery team" = Astros

 

It would be cool to be a mystery team just once though.

 

I would enjoy the Twins being a mystery team, but I don't think I'd like a 7-year deal to a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It makes me feel better to always assume that the Twins are the mystery team in every rumor.

[nicksaviking]

It makes me feel better to always assume that the Twins are the mystery team in every rumor.

 

This just in: Houston, Colorado and a "mystery" team are all involved in talks for Ryan Vogelsong, Stephen Drew and Dan Uggla.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

In some cases I also take solace in the fact that the mystery team rarely wins the bidding...