Article: 2015 Breakout Prospects

[Cody Christie]

It's hard to argue with the breakout season Jose Berrios put together in 2014. He dominated the Florida State League and held his own in the Eastern League while being 4 1/2 years younger than the average pitcher in that league. He was already a top ten prospect in the organization but he solidified himself as one of the top three pitchers in a loaded farm system.Berrios was just one of the team's prospects to do well in 2014 as other prospects also put their names on the map. Adam Brett Walker smacked a ton of home runs in the tough Florida State League. Eddie Rosario missed time at the beginning of the season due to a drug suspension but he ended the season on a high note as one of the best hitters in the Arizona Fall League. There were many other prospects who also had solid seasons.

 

Here are three of the Twins top prospects that I think could follow in the footsteps of Berrios and have a breakout season in 2015.

 

Stephen Gonsalves- LHP

2014 Team(s): Elizabethton Twins, Cedar Rapids Kernels

3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 65.2 IP, 70 K, 21 BB (14 Games)

Gonsalves, a 2013 fourth round pick, made it all the way to Low-A this season as a teenager. He continues to show the ability to strike out batters. He can hit the 90's with his fastball and he can counter with a good change-up. His other breaking pitch still needs some work but he will be able to develop that as he progresses through the system. In his first five outings at Low-A, he posted a 1.57 ERA over 23.0 innings with 21 strikeouts and only four walks. To put those numbers in prospective, he was three years younger than the average of the other pitchers in the Midwest League.

 

Travis Harrison- OF/3B

2014 Team(s): Fort Myers Miracle

.269/.361/.365, 3 HR, 33 2B, 59 RBI, 80 R (129 Games)

The Florida State League can be tough on hitters and this could be one of the reasons Harrison's home run total dipped from 15 in '13 to 3 this past season. The former supplemental first round pick continues to get on base at a very high rate and he's shown the ability to take the ball to the opposite field. His strikeout rate continues to drop and he played a new defensive position (left field) this season. He will be 22-years old for all of next season and he should be more comfortable playing his defensive spot. This could result in some big numbers for Harrison at Double-A.

 

SLEEPER PICK:

Amaurys Minier- OF/1B

2014 Team(s): GCL Twins

.292/.405/.520, 8 HR, 11 2B, 33 RBI, 25 R (53 Games)

It can be tough to have a breakout season in the lower levels of the minor leagues but the Twins have seen players like Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have huge seasons after coming out of extended spring training. Minier has big power from the left-side but there might be some holes in his swing as evident by his 52 strikeouts this season. If his approach can improve as he moves up the ladder and he makes some positive strides on the defensive side of the ball, he could be vaulting up Twins prospect lists during the next off-season.

 

For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

 

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[twinsfanstreif]

Gonsalves was my first thought too. I could also see Kohl Stewart having a break out year as well, as a top pick he's suposed to do well so it might not exactly be "break out" but he was rather pedestrian last year and slipped in several rankings. I think he begins to throw more sliders and his K numbers will go up

[benji21]

I'd really like to be there with ya on Stewart but I can't do it. I'm pessimistic on him thanks to his pedestrian showing last season. Contrary to popular belief (I think) he only withheld his slider for the first month or two, and after reintroducing it, did not see a sharp uptick in results. Heres hoping though.

[Twinsoholic]

My break out picks are Tyler Duffy (AAA), John Curtis (not sure of name--6th round pick from U of Texas). Both Duffy and Curtis were relievers when drafted out of college (although Curtis started as a freshman before arm injuries). Curtis filled in as a starter last season and did very well. Keep your eye on him as a starter.

 

My two other break out picks are Alex Swim (catcher) and two outfielders: Tanner English (speed--think Brett Gardner) and Zach Larsen (more punch with the bat than English).

 

How many people this time last year had Santana and Vargas as break out players?

[DocBauer]

Gonsalves is at the top of my list, and I'd place Thorpe there as well. The Twins seemed painstakingly slow with Gonsalves last season, a bit less with Thorpe, but I think they truly believe they have something in these two. And by gosh and golly and any other g-word you want to use, they are determined to avoid injury or shocking confidence lost by too early promotion. And I get that. But either, or both, of these kids could make a jump this year.

 

Top prospects are supposed to play well and get promoted, do well again, and eventually arrive. But when you examine how young some of the top prospects are in the system, it helps re-define that opinion. For example, in addition to Gonsalves and Thorpe, Stewart might also make a big jump this season, especially if he starts using that slider a bit more.

 

I picked Kepler last season as one of my top picks to click. I was really surprised it didn't happen. But a solid finish and solid work in the AFL, I'm going with him again this season.

 

I discount Polanco's error total last season simply because he is still in the minors, surrounded by other minor leaguers, and playing in milb stadiums on milb fields, did get better statisticly as the season wore on, and because, well, simply, most milb infielders, even good ones, go through some growing pains and make errors.

 

I still think Goodrum is just too gifted for the light not to start coming on.

 

And Christiansen is a personal favorite son I have my eye on, and feel really good about developing not as a star, but as a very useful and versatile player.

[Dman]

I am kind of a Hu fan myself.  He came out of no where last year and seemed unhitable at times.  I wonder if he can find the same level of success Berrios had last year.  He seems to have the pitches and a good approach. I like him for my sleeper break out candidate.

 

I like the Gonsalves pick and I have always liked him.  That was a heck of a pick for the 4th round.  I hope he does move quickly.  

 

I also agree with Doc in that I like Thorpe as well.  Nice to see a good crop of young arms to get excited about.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Dman

[Otwins]

I was thinking that Thorpe was hurt at year end. Possibly Tommy John- anyone hear any health update?

[lightfoot789]

Although mentioned in the above article as having FSL power, it is often thought that Adam Brett Walker II is a likely miss.  He is looked upon as a guy who can be a real gem if he figures "IT" out, but not a guy who is lkely to do so.  That being said  I ok for Adam Brett Walker II to be this years Vargas. 

 

Productive AA stats with a much improved OBP.  I think this is the year he changes many minds.  I'm sure he'll be asked repeat performance in AAA to prove it wasn't a fluke and that is consistently fair.

 

I'm hoping a pace of 30 HRs and 100+ RBI with a slightly better OBP gets him noticed by mid season.  It will possibly be the first time Walker has someone on the team who is as big of a power threat then he is (Sano). He can possibly have 4 top 10 prospects batting ahead of him (Polanco; Buxton; Rosario; Sano).  Who knows - he had Dalton Hicks; Kepler; Harrison; and Stuart batting ahead of him last year (in playoffs).  He hit 7th in the playoffs.  He might hit 9th with this line up.  Either way - I see him as my breakout player of the 2015 season.  Wherever he bats in these line ups - he has produced and been recognized by the coaches of the other teams in his leagues.  BOP (Break Out Player) descibes him well

[Thegrin]

I look to Brett Lee to be this years breakout pitcher. He is not a speedster, but he fills the crafty lefty role.  No team can have enough of these types of pitchers.  If he has a normal season with an ERA under 3.00 he could even see a promotion to AAA if needed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Walker can figure out his contact issues, he'll be the steal of that draft.  He's not a bad pick for a break out, as he certainly improved over the course of the season.  I think both Thorpe, Kepler, and Gonsalves could take massive steps forward this year as well. 

[Dantes929]

I agree with Dman.  Whenever I read reports on Hu both for his stats and his arsenal and control I think why is this guy not in the top 10 prospects.    What have Thorpe and Gonsalves got that Hu does not?

[minnesota transplant]

As a Minnesota transplant that now lives in Florida,  I enjoyed going to Miracle games and watching Berrios and Walker.   I think in time they will be major league studs, one name though that is not to be ignored is Jorge Polanco.  He can flat out pick it albeit with some errors, but I think that will get straightend out in time, so thats my vote.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gonsalves is at the top of my list, and I'd place Thorpe there as well. The Twins seemed painstakingly slow with Gonsalves last season, a bit less with Thorpe, but I think they truly believe they have something in these two. 

Thorpe is my favorite dark horse in the system right now.

 

It's unfair to call the Twins' approach "slow" with Thorpe. The kid played an entire season of Low A ball as an 18 year old. That was an extremely aggressive move by the Twins. Kohl Stewart has been considered a somewhat brisk mover through the system and he's 13 months older than Lewis Thorpe.

[lightfoot789]

I picked Brett Lee and Matt Tomshaw last year and they were both double digit winners.  I kind of like the fact that Tomshaw has a pitch no one else in the system really throws with consistent accuracy (knuckler).  All these guys do - is win and post respectable ERAs but never get challenged to say they flat out can't pitch at the next level.  I hope both get promoted pre season and mid season to test their true skill set.  Breakout pitchers for 2015.  Neither will get the love of a Berrios or Meyer, but people should take notice of what they do on a yearly basis.   

[Mike Sixel]

Burdi.....your 8th inning man by the AS break.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, that old thought that the Twins move people around slow is kind of silly at this point, isn't it? I get that we all think Meyer should have been up during the middle of the 2014 season. However when you look at the advancement of Thorpe and Fernando Romero, who were both called up in early June last year. Consider Engelb Vielma spent the whole season in Cedar Rapids. Arcia was in the big leagues by 21. Jorge Polanco got a couple of cups of coffee at 20. Look at Byron Buxton his first full season, moving up to Ft. Myers as a 19 year old. Sano flew up the ladder. JO Berrios is moving very fast. Nick Gordon starting in Elizabethton. 

 

On the other side, guys that were breakout guys, in my opinion, including Tyler Duffey and Jason Wheeler started 2014 where they pitched much of 2013, in Ft. Myers. And yet, for both of them, it proved to be the right move. 

 

I guess that's why I don't mind them waiting a bit on Meyer. They push when they need to push, and they wait when they need to wait. No one is perfect, but I do like seeing guys moving up when it's time. 

[Major League Ready]

The good news is there are a lot of options that are legitimate candidates to break-out and be significant contributors to the ML club in the near future.  My slightly different spin is that there are a few I watch closely because they could be boom or bust.

 

Walker tops that list for me.  He could be a beast or never make a ML roster.  I would love to see Walker and Rosario break through and all of the sudden we have a very dynamic outfield in 2016.

 

Gonsalves and Burdi seem like the most obvious pitching candidates but who knows.   If we are going to wish, let's wish Stewart shows his ability to be a future ace.  That way we have Berrios, Meyer, and May all on the immediate horizon and Stewart no too far behinds.  That would mean we can start watching a quality product again soon.

[ashbury]

He might still be a little too low in the minors, but I'll throw out Max Murphy as a breakout candidate.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree with Dman.  Whenever I read reports on Hu both for his stats and his arsenal and control I think why is this guy not in the top 10 prospects.    What have Thorpe and Gonsalves got that Hu does not?

Hu is another good candidate, but I think the big thing that Thorpe and Gonsalves have on Hu is that they are 2-3 years younger.

[SwainZag]

I'd really like to be there with ya on Stewart but I can't do it. I'm pessimistic on him thanks to his pedestrian showing last season. Contrary to popular belief (I think) he only withheld his slider for the first month or two, and after reintroducing it, did not see a sharp uptick in results. Heres hoping though.

 

 

Besides his lower K/9 what was pedestrian about his season?  As a 19 year old he was competing with 75% of guys 2-3 years older than him.  He would def. be on my prospects to breakout next year.

[ericchri]

Walker tops that list for me.  He could be a beast or never make a ML roster.

I don't want to derail this too much, but I find this interesting.  Of all the guys mentioned in this thread so far I consider Walker the most likely (barring injury) candidate to play in the majors.  Not the guy most likely to be a good major league player, but the guy most likely to at least play in the majors.  Guys who hit the ball that hard (without completely sucking in every other way, which Walker obviously doesn't) will get a chance at some point.  He could be the next Colabello-type (I think he'll be better than that) who doesn't have what it takes to hit consistently enough to turn that into a meaningful career, but he'll play in the majors.

 

To try and stay on topic, I think Engelb Vielma is the potentially really interesting name next year.  He's moving up to high enough levels now that he's not just some "low-rookie level potential defensive-wiz."  Hopefully he can solidify himself as an A+ level defensive-wiz with just enough stick.

Edited December 5, 2014 by ericchri

[Major League Ready]

Good point that Walker does likely make a ML roster given his RH power.  I guess the intrigue is that if this guy's approach improves, he could be an all-star. 

[nicksaviking]

I guess I'll be in the minority but I actually have a few more concerns about Gonsalves now.  I think most people expected his velocity to increase as part of his normal development, but didn't it go from low 90's in HS to more upper 80's last year?  That concerns me a bit.  Maybe even more than a bit regardless of results.

 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, I'd gladly sacrafice my take for some good news.

 

My dark horse is Anderlin Mejia.  He can play anywhere on the infield, has good on-base skills, low strikeout rate and can swipe a good number of bags.  He's not sexy and has a low ceiling and no power, but I bet he's a utility player for the Twins after unexpected injury #2.

[lightfoot789]

Agreed.  I would love to know what Brad Steil wants from Walker moving forward.  What does he consider good at bats?  Not the general answer but more specific for Walker. 

 

The radio announcer for Fort Myers said Walker sees as many pitches per AB as anyone else.  He said he constantly works back from 0-2 counts to run the counts full (3-2).  He also said that Pitchers pitch Walker differently than everyone else on the team.  When guys get pitched normal (per scouting report) - Walker gets pitched backwards.  When pitchers are pitching backwards - Walker is getting pitched normal.  He needs to know that and learn to adjust better if that is true. 

 

It would be nice however, to see Walker bat with a Rosario in front of him and / or a Sano behind him too.  Why not have a base stealer on base in front of him so he can get more fastballs in his AB's too.  I think Dalton Hicks is a fantastic player too, but with Dalton on base in front of Walker - I wouldn't throw any fastballs to Walker either.  Junk Junk Junk.

[James Richter]

I'll give a mention to Nick Gordon. His .294/.333/.366 line may not seem too exciting, but it's impressive for a professional debut from a high schooler in a league that hit .252/.327/.356. Gordon didn't walk much, especially in August (not unlike Vargas in his first taste of MLB). For a player who wants to model himself on Jeter, I expect that improve. He'll look better this time next year with a higher OBP and maybe even some pop as he starts to fill out.

[Steven Buhr]

Hu is another good candidate, but I think the big thing that Thorpe and Gonsalves have on Hu is that they are 2-3 years younger.

Just in the interest of accuracy, Hu is 8 months older than Gonsalves and 2 years older than Thorpe.

 

I like all of the break out picks you've all mentioned! Harrison would definitely be on my list. Watching him in CR in 2013, I thought he really needed to work on zone recognition to cut his K rate and make more consistent contact. He did that, even if it may have come at the expense of HRs. I think those will come. 

 

I struggle with defining "break out" season. A lot of the guys mentioned had good 2014s and I expect them to show continued progress. Not sure that constitutes a break out.

 

If we're talking about guys who had "OK" seasons that I think could be primed for eye-opening seasons in 2015 (like Berrios improved from 2013 in to 2014), I'd be looking at Harrison, Stewart, Goodrum, and if you want names nobody else has mentioned so far, maybe Bryan Haar or Jason Kanzler.

[benji21]

Besides his lower K/9 what was pedestrian about his season?  As a 19 year old he was competing with 75% of guys 2-3 years older than him.  He would def. be on my prospects to breakout next year.

 

Well I suppose his K/9 is what most disappoints me about him.  Sure, he had a sterling ERA-- and, while I couldn't find his ground ball rate, I'll assume it's good-- but my gut just tells me 'not dominant'.  And that might be fine for most pitchers, but for a top pick such as he is, it feels underwhelming despite his age.  The Twins have had plenty of guys with good ERA's and no K's and will never make it such as BJ Hermsen, Albers, Hendricks.  Now, Stewart obviously comes with much higher clout, time, and projectability, but that just summarizes my concern for him.

[markos]

My nominee is Stuart Turner. He had a terrible April (.452 OPS) which depressed his stats for the entire season. But from May 1st until the end of the year, he had a OPS of .759, which would amount to a 109 OPS+. Not bad for a catcher in the Florida State League. His season kind of reminds me of Dozier's in 2010, when Dozier quietly had a solidly above-average season in the depressed run environment that is the FSL and nobody noticed. I wouldn't be surprised if Turner is promoted to AA and his bat picks up. If that happens, he is knocking on the door to the majors, especially if his defense is a good as everyone claims. 

[kab21]

Well I suppose his K/9 is what most disappoints me about him.  Sure, he had a sterling ERA-- and, while I couldn't find his ground ball rate, I'll assume it's good-- but my gut just tells me 'not dominant'.  And that might be fine for most pitchers, but for a top pick such as he is, it feels underwhelming despite his age.  The Twins have had plenty of guys with good ERA's and no K's and will never make it such as BJ Hermsen, Albers, Hendricks.  Now, Stewart obviously comes with much higher clout, time, and projectability, but that just summarizes my concern for him.

No K's and mediocre stuff are a bad combination.  No K's, great stuff that needs work and was 19 in full season ball.  Basically he's nothing like those guys.

 

Lewin Diaz is a guy that hasn't been mentioned.  He will be in rookie ball and a year behind Minier but he has upside.

 

I really like thorpe if he can come back healthy. 

[goulik]

I'm not sure if you'd call it a breakout or a rebound but Eddie Rosario could be This years Santana in a position we really need it.