Article: Torii Hunter In The Outfield: Just How Bad Can It Be?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So what will Hunter's real value be to the team ?  Only time will tell.  Some times we ask why the Twins signed player A instead of player B.  Maybe player B didn't want to sign with the Twins.

i'd rather see the same outfield from September than see Arcia and Hunter in the same outfield. If you aren't going to improve in the key area for improvement, then why change? The hitting was top 5 scoring in baseball. Is the plan to have football game scores? Twins beat Pale Hose 27 to 25 night in night out?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

http://i.imgur.com/zH5YLR4.gif

 

This, is Hunter playing an Eric Fryer lazy fly ball into a triple when he could have gotten in front of it.

 

 

Let me apply the "eye test" to this, and then get back to you.

Edited December 4, 2014 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Riverbrian]

Completely understand your plight against UZR but your comments seem to overlook the fact that Inside Edge's numbers based on video scouts confirm what his UZR is saying. Likewise, raw batted ball data is also suggesting he is not able to cover as much ground as the top defenders. I believe those three lenses provides a clear picture about his level of defense in 2014.

 

LOL.. I'm not overlooking any facts... I'm just not digging for all of them.

 

Torii may very well be what is being presented... I'm not equipped to argue. I just can't resist the chance to rail on UZR since the stat is thrown around frequently.

 

Good work as always Parker. Ill be curious to watch Torii daily in 2015.

[ashbury]

I'm not overlooking any facts... I'm just not digging for all of them.

 

You've had your skeleton and mop signature line for a while now.  Maybe time for a new one?

[Riverbrian]

I'm not sure one or two routine misplays make a guy worst in the league in UZR.

 

Also, many players can probably make a few outstanding plays to balance a couple botched routine ones. Hunter has probably done that for most of his career. If he started failing to do that the past 2 years, at ages 38 and 39, isn't that notable?

Its quite possible... However... It all comes down to percentages and weighting of.

 

If You misplay a ball that is coverted at 95% in a certain zone...The punishment is large. The majority of balls hit are handled in these high percentage zones.

 

You only have a few chances to make a low percentage play when you get high Percentage plays by the boatload.and those low percentage plays converted are less and less uncommon.

 

You simply can't catch up and when you consider how little low percentage data is available from week to week... Even month to month or year to year... It produces unstable swings in the result and therefore unreliable data.

 

Yeah... I'm not a UZR fan.

 

With that said... Torii may be what is being claimed. I don't know... I'm just not trusting of UZR at all.

[old nurse]

I appreciate the chasm between lousy defenders and elite ones like Heyward. But for purposes of who the Twins could sign in free agency, here is how Hunter's 2014 season compares to the other OFers on MLBTR's top 50 FA leaderboard (I've also included Heyward just to emphasize what an outlier he is).

 

I threw out innings in CF and any player-position combo under 200 innings.

 

Anyone care to guess who is who?

 

Player 3 was Willingham?

[old nurse]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

I don't know quite what to make of the numbers. Yes Hunter is at the bottom of the list. Compared to average numbers it looks like Hunter did't get to about 6-7 balls all season that an average  or above average outfielder would have. Expand the list out and you find for the time he was out there, Parmelee played an above average RF.

Edited December 4, 2014 by old nurse

[LJHoes]

This is the article most directly about Torii's defense, so I guess this is the place to talk about it. The only actually reliable numbers we have to go on are the video scouts. They say that Torii converted an out on Converted outs at an 88% clip. The average fielder is not listed, since I'm guessing it probably undermines the intended point. Let's be charitable and say that the average fielder converts 93% of all chances. (The video scouts include impossible chances in their measure so nobody is going to be too close to 100%) Now, let's also say that every single ball put in play this year is going to go to right field. That means 100% would be 4374 outs over 162 games. The average right fielder is going to put 329 baserunners on due to fielding mistakes and general bad luck. Torii is going to put 596 baserunners on a game. 267 more baserunners allowed over the whole season. That's 1.6 baserunners a game if every single ball is hit to right field. It's barely enough to guarantee an extra run per game in that insane situation. 

 

This isn't to suggest that Hunter is the best or even a good fielder. It's to suggest that outfield defense is not worth the stress so many of you are putting yourselves through. Considering that Hunter has been at least 10% better than average on offense for the past 8 years, he's clearly a net positive, since he's guaranteed 3 chances a game to play offense. There's no guarantee that he'll get even that many chances on defense in any given game. Even if they have a recent history high 37% fly ball and 22% line drive, that still only gives Hunter a Maximum of 16 chances, with only 12 of those being realistic catches, thus a maximum of 1 or 2 that will fall in extra. Again, that's assuming that every line drive and fly ball is hit to right, and there are no strike outs. It's not so bleak, ya'll.  

Edited December 4, 2014 by LJHoes

[Dantes929]

Sorry LJhes, it does matter.   Your stats may all be correct but baseball is all about the difference in percentage.    A guy that gets on base 40% of the time vs one that gets on base 32% of the time means only 1 extra base runner every 3 games and that extra runner doesn't score all the time and even when he does it might no affect the outcome of the game  which is why WAR always seems to be such a small number but it all makes a difference in the long haul.    Next time you watch a series just picture Delmon Young in all 3 outfield spots for just one of the teams.    Odds are pretty good at least one of the games would have been turned on outfield defense.     I am only on board  with this move because I think Tori is an upgrade over Willngam in both O and D    Now maybe it only means 5 more runs created and 5 more prevented but it is still improvement.

[Mike Sixel]

This is the article most directly about Torii's defense, so I guess this is the place to talk about it. The only actually reliable numbers we have to go on are the video scouts. They say that Torii converted an out on Converted outs at an 88% clip. The average fielder is not listed, since I'm guessing it probably undermines the intended point. Let's be charitable and say that the average fielder converts 93% of all chances. (The video scouts include impossible chances in their measure so nobody is going to be too close to 100%) Now, let's also say that every single ball put in play this year is going to go to right field. That means 100% would be 4374 outs over 162 games. The average right fielder is going to put 329 baserunners on due to fielding mistakes and general bad luck. Torii is going to put 596 baserunners on a game. 267 more baserunners allowed over the whole season. That's 1.6 baserunners a game if every single ball is hit to right field. It's barely enough to guarantee an extra run per game in that insane situation. 

 

This isn't to suggest that Hunter is the best or even a good fielder. It's to suggest that outfield defense is not worth the stress so many of you are putting yourselves through. Considering that Hunter has been at least 10% better than average on offense for the past 8 years, he's clearly a net positive, since he's guaranteed 3 chances a game to play offense. There's no guarantee that he'll get even that many chances on defense in any given game. Even if they have a recent history high 37% fly ball and 22% line drive, that still only gives Hunter a Maximum of 16 chances, with only 12 of those being realistic catches, thus a maximum of 1 or 2 that will fall in extra. Again, that's assuming that every line drive and fly ball is hit to right, and there are no strike outs. It's not so bleak, ya'll.  

 

You just recreated WAR, btw........

[LJHoes]

If that's the paper thin calculation of WAR, then it's absolutely useless. 

[nicksaviking]

 

One observation in watching film of him this past year is that he plays deep. This make him very good at going back on balls (as we've all seen make plays at the wall) but bad at those that fall short. 

 

He does play deep.  At TF though that option is going to basically be taken out of his hands.  You play deep in TF and you can still shake the 2B's hand.

[TheLeviathan]

If that's the paper thin calculation of WAR, then it's absolutely useless.

 

Yup!

[Mike Sixel]

If that's the paper thin calculation of WAR, then it's absolutely useless. 

 

Really, you think that is the actual definition of how the defensive stats are calculated, as opposed to something headed that way? 

[Mike Sixel]

Lots of people don't think it is possible for Hunter to be "that bad"......anyone want to look at Kobe Bryant's shooting percentage this year, and explain how he "forgot how to shoot"?

[shs_59]

http://espn.go.com/espn/fp/flashPollResultsState?sportIndex=mlb&pollId=4613070

 

 

a poll , nationwide, on what other sports fans (mostly educated fans) think of the Hunter to Twins move.

 

 

And in response to, tobi 0040  who was questioning my Vargas to AAA notion, (citing his .761 ops for the Twins in 2014)

When has entirely skipping AAA ever been a good idea for the Twins?   Brian Dozier hasn't even blossomed yet; if anything was dissapointing for me in 2014. after a great 2013.  Hicks, is one of many many many examples that skipping AAA entirely is not a good idea.

The Twins needed a bat after they traded awway poor Kendrys Morales so they dug into AA to bring up Vargas , who did a great job. 

 

 But with torii on the roster i think its a better idea to have someone like Vargas in AAA. Where he can play everyday.  And hopefully improve in some minor areas.

 

Hunter needs to DH at least once or twice a week. (if not more)

[by jiminy]

"Only a band aid with very little stick-um on it.

 

What's the plan Terry?  Where are you going with this team?"

 

nice metaphor. You could also say, spray-on hair to conceal a bald spot (or try to)

 

and of course there's the proverbial, "lipstick on a pig."

[shs_59]

I mean its one thing if you have 1000 AB's in AA and then go straight to the big leagues.

 

But 250 - 350 AB's or less in not enough in my opinion to make the jump straight from the Eastern League.

[Otto von Ballpark]

When has entirely skipping AAA ever been a good idea for the Twins?   Brian Dozier hasn't even blossomed yet; if anything was dissapointing for me in 2014. after a great 2013. 

Dozier, May 28 thru end of season 2013: 119 wRC+.

 

Dozier, full 2014 season: 118 wRC+

 

The shape of the production changed a bit in latter half of 2014, but this level of performance is just fine for Dozier's "blossoming."  Remember, he was never a star prospect.

 

And I think those were adjustments he had to make in MLB too, not AAA.

[tobi0040]

http://espn.go.com/espn/fp/flashPollResultsState?sportIndex=mlb&pollId=4613070

 

 

a poll , nationwide, on what other sports fans (mostly educated fans) think of the Hunter to Twins move.

 

 

And in response to, tobi 0040  who was questioning my Vargas to AAA notion, (citing his .761 ops for the Twins in 2014)

When has entirely skipping AAA ever been a good idea for the Twins?   Brian Dozier hasn't even blossomed yet; if anything was dissapointing for me in 2014. after a great 2013.  Hicks, is one of many many many examples that skipping AAA entirely is not a good idea.

The Twins needed a bat after they traded awway poor Kendrys Morales so they dug into AA to bring up Vargas , who did a great job. 

 

 But with torii on the roster i think its a better idea to have someone like Vargas in AAA. Where he can play everyday.  And hopefully improve in some minor areas.

 

Hunter needs to DH at least once or twice a week. (if not more)

 

Vargas looks like a left tackle and will only get bigger as he ages.  He has no defense to learn....his job is to hit and hit only.

 

In 2012 he has an OPS of 1.030. 

 

In 2013 he has an OPS of .813.

 

In 2014 he had an OPS of .832 at AA, with 17 HR's in 97 games at AA and the Twins decided he was probably ready.  He responded by putting up an OPS of .772 and hitting 9 HR in 52 games.  A pace of 28 for a full year at the big league level as a 23 year old  (162 games). He was second on the team in OPS.   I can't say he won't ever need to go to AAA and refine something, but I think he needs to give the Twins a reason for a demotion.

Edited December 5, 2014 by tobi0040

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There was a play in the top of the 6th today. Fly ball deep right but it's a play outfielders make. Hunter clearly misjudged it in my opinion. Let's hope it's just a case of him still learning Target Field.

 

Based on how Hunter reacted, it looked like he thought the ball would hit off the wall and that his plan would be the "bluff" catch, slow down and hold up the glove, to fool the runner into thinking it was just a fly ball to the warning track. Which... is actually what it was. It landed on the warning track pretty close behind him. Here is a link to the play.

 

The reason this play bothers me is because if Hunter makes that catch, the score remains 2-1 with one out, runner on first. Granted May was about cooked at that point and things got worse later. But then again, maybe the Twins escape the 6th and the game stays close until the end.

 

Bonus information: When Plouffe left his position to chase down the errant relay throw, Oswaldo Arcia ran in to cover third base from left. I really like Arcia--he's almost half Hunter's age and goes all out every play. Arcia should be Plan A for right field in 2016.

[Kwak]

 

There was a play in the top of the 6th today. Fly ball deep right but it's a play outfielders make. Hunter clearly misjudged it in my opinion. Let's hope it's just a case of him still learning Target Field.

 

Based on how Hunter reacted, it looked like he thought the ball would hit off the wall and that his plan would be the "bluff" catch, slow down and hold up the glove, to fool the runner into thinking it was just a fly ball to the warning track. Which... is actually what it was. It landed on the warning track pretty close behind him. Here is a link to the play.

 

The reason this play bothers me is because if Hunter makes that catch, the score remains 2-1 with one out, runner on first. Granted May was about cooked at that point and things got worse later. But then again, maybe the Twins escape the 6th and the game stays close until the end.

 

Bonus information: When Plouffe left his position to chase down the errant relay throw, Oswaldo Arcia ran in to cover third base from left. I really like Arcia--he's almost half Hunter's age and goes all out every play. Arcia should be Plan A for right field in 2016.

Hunter didn't have a prayer to catch that ball. His error came on the misdirected throw to the infield.

[Platoon]

On most teams, when a pitcher gives up a no doubt gopher ball, he is shown reacting by hanging his head in disbelief, or disappointment! When a Twins pitcher gives up any fly ball, his reaction is to hang his head in fear, knowing nothing good can come of this!

[Boom Boom]

Hunter didn't have a prayer to catch that ball. His error came on the misdirected throw to the infield.

Any decent defensive RF could have caught that ball.

 

It did look to me like he took a bad route.

[Riverbrian]

 

Hunter didn't have a prayer to catch that ball. 

 

It's real hard to say with 100% confidence. You could be right... But... I gotta say... I think an average RF gets to that ball. I don't believe that ball lands in the KC Outfield. At the least... His Angle was wrong... At the worst... His range is strikingly below par. 

 

For me... It has taken 7 games (I've watched maybe 4 of those) for me to completely 180 on Hunter. 

 

I've gone from: These Defensive Metrics are half cooked... There is no way Torii is as bad as they say. 

 

TO: Holy Cow... Hunter really doesn't have much range at all out there... Using the eye test.  

 

I'm really trying to keep my feelings in check. I understand that everything is magnified in the first couple weeks of the season. Mistakes like these in July are typically Oh Welled away by the fan base because less are paying attention. I'm slapping myself in the face right now and saying... "Brian... Snap out of it... It's only 7 games".

 

It ain't working. 

 

To Follow up 3 dropped cans of corn on Sunday to what we saw yesterday in the home opener is going to shake most anyone up.

 

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

It's real hard to say with 100% confidence. You could be right... But... I gotta say... I think an average RF gets to that ball. I don't believe that ball lands in the KC Outfield. At the least... His Angle was wrong... At the worst... His range is strikingly below par. 

 

For me... It has taken 7 games (I've watched maybe 4 of those) for me to completely 180 on Hunter. 

 

I've gone from: These Defensive Metrics are half cooked... There is no way Torii is as bad as they say. 

 

TO: Holy Cow... Hunter really doesn't have much range at all out there... Using the eye test.  

 

I'm really trying to keep my feelings in check. I understand that everything is magnified in the first couple weeks of the season. Mistakes like these in July are typically Oh Welled away by the fan base because less are paying attention. I'm slapping myself in the face right now and saying... "Brian... Snap out of it... It's only 7 games".

 

It ain't working. 

 

To Follow up 3 dropped cans of corn on Sunday to what we saw yesterday in the home opener is going to shake most anyone up.

 

 

This is what needs to happen by July/August.

 

 

Buxton is in CF.  Rosario or HIcks is in LF.  Buxton shades whoever is in RF between Hunter and Arcia. I honestly think this makes our team 50 runs better just on defense.

If either Arcia or Vargas flounders at the plate, the other is the DH and we have an actual outfield.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

 

This is what needs to happen by July/August.

 

 

Buxton is in CF.  Rosario or HIcks is in LF.  Buxton shades whoever is in RF between Hunter and Arcia. I honestly think this makes our team 50 runs better just on defense.

If either Arcia or Vargas flounders at the plate, the other is the DH and we have an actual outfield.

Ah, c'mon, OF defense can't possible be responsible for THAT kind of difference 

[jimmer]

 

It's real hard to say with 100% confidence. You could be right... But... I gotta say... I think an average RF gets to that ball. I don't believe that ball lands in the KC Outfield. At the least... His Angle was wrong... At the worst... His range is strikingly below par. 

 

For me... It has taken 7 games (I've watched maybe 4 of those) for me to completely 180 on Hunter. 

 

I've gone from: These Defensive Metrics are half cooked... There is no way Torii is as bad as they say. 

 

TO: Holy Cow... Hunter really doesn't have much range at all out there... Using the eye test.  

 

I'm really trying to keep my feelings in check. I understand that everything is magnified in the first couple weeks of the season. Mistakes like these in July are typically Oh Welled away by the fan base because less are paying attention. I'm slapping myself in the face right now and saying... "Brian... Snap out of it... It's only 7 games".

 

It ain't working. 

 

To Follow up 3 dropped cans of corn on Sunday to what we saw yesterday in the home opener is going to shake most anyone up.

more converted.  welcome.

[Riverbrian]

I'll also add... I'm not worried about Hunter's Throw at all. That's an Oops... It happens from time to time. 

 

The mistakes they are all making can be fixed... There will be a time when it starts coming together as much as it can and the Twins may even roll a decent winning streak or two this year.  

 

I'm just sitting here worried that the OF Range can't improve enough and the result of that will filter down to the pitching staff and inflate ERA's so everyone is will complain about the lack of pitching as well and I'll be sitting here thinking... Is it the Pitching staff or the lack of help they are getting.  

 

 

[jimmer]

 

 

I'm just sitting here worried that the OF Range can't improve enough and the result of that will filter down to the pitching staff and inflate ERA's so everyone is will complain about the lack of pitching as well and I'll be sitting here thinking... Is it the Pitching staff or the lack of help they are getting.  

that's what's been happening the last couple years. no surprise it's happening again.  We had more than a full run difference between our ERA and FIP last year.  Easily the largest difference in the majors.

Edited April 14, 2015 by jimmer