Article: Torii Hunter In The Outfield: Just How Bad Can It Be?

[USAFChief]

Don't bother calling Terry Ryan for help, Chief.  Has he even publicly addressed the OF defense specifically as an issue of priority for the offseason?  When he mentioned the OF, he said he "needed a veteran RH bat." Nothing about a glove.  As Parker intimated about the Twins OF defense, he's "not that concerned" and "he doesn't trust the advanced stats."  If he's that detatched from the reality of the situation, I'm wondering if Jack Goin even bothers to present a case in this regard any longer.   I know he let it out that he sees Sano as possibly debuting in the majors in the OF-  HIS RECORD SHOWS HE HASN'T PLAYED A SINGLE GAME IN THE OF IN THE MINORS! (puzzling, to say the least).  And we're now looking at the very possible reality of Ryan counting on the third Opening Day attempt being the charm, by possibly starting out, yet again, with Aaron Hicks and his rather "adventuresome" CF defense.

Is it possible Goin's advice to Ryan doesn't concur with the general consensus here at TD?

 

Perhaps they don't think corner OF defense makes as much difference as is assumed.

[TheLeviathan]

Is it possible Goin's advice to Ryan doesn't concur with the general consensus here at TD?

 

Perhaps they don't think corner OF defense makes as much difference as is assumed.

 

Then very strong cases can be made that they are very, very wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You don't even need metrics to think this is a bad idea, defensively. Dude is turning 40 next year. And while he has been a steady hitter, he's not a high upside one -- was this team's top priority really replacing Willingham's 110 OPS+? Didn't we have a lot of thse hitters last year?

[gunnarthor]

 was this team's top priority really replacing Willingham's 110 OPS+? Didn't we have a lot of thse hitters last year?

Actually, no.  Santana, Vargas, Dozier and Plouffe.  That was it.

[USAFChief]

You don't even need metrics to think this is a bad idea, defensively. Dude is turning 40 next year. And while he has been a steady hitter, he's not a high upside one -- was this team's top priority really replacing Willingham's 110 OPS+? Didn't we have a lot of thse hitters last year?

That's why I don't like the deal. It has little to do with corner OF defense.

 

He's not going to move the needle much anywhere, and IMO he probably represents the only position player addition for the winter of any consequence. He's just another "veteran innings eater" disguised as an OFer.

[tobi0040]

Parker,

 

You do fantastic work.  Can you please submit your resume to the Twins?  Seriously.

 

Are you able to isolate Hunter's defensive metrics at home and on the road the last two years?  There is a suggestion on another thread that Comerica is the sole issue, not Hunters defense.

[nicksaviking]

Great stuff Parker.

 

Still, Hunter catches that fly ball in TF.  That is unless he started out playing two feet off the warning track.  Comreica needs a rangy RF, Target Field has less need of one.

[Dantes929]

I would not sign here as a FA SP for a one year make good contract. It looks to be bad out there on defense. We can disagree on how bad, but does anyone think the OF defense will be anything other than bottom 5?

I agree with everything in your post but how bad is still relevant.    I don't see why the assumption is that Hunter will go to right and Arcia to left makes any sense.    I see Hunter going to left.   Hunter might be bad there but Willingham and Nunez were monumentally bad.    Being 5th worst is still going to save some runs over worst.    Plus Hunter's last two years offensively were way better than Willingham's.    We will not escape the bottom 5 until Buxton makes the scene.    Only three outfielders so the replacement of one slow guy with one of plus, plus speed will make a world of difference.   This is just a stop gap and while I wasn't in favor of the deal it represents improvement offensively and defensively when simply comparing Hunter to Willingham.   

[Parker Hageman]

Still, Hunter catches that fly ball in TF.  That is unless he started out playing two feet off the warning track.  Comreica needs a rangy RF, Target Field has less need of one.

 

Are you able to isolate Hunter's defensive metrics at home and on the road the last two years?  There is a suggestion on another thread that Comerica is the sole issue, not Hunters defense.

 

 

I cannot isolate home/road splits for defense. It's possible someone at Inside Edge or another company can do this but I do not have access to that.

 

One observation in watching film of him this past year is that he plays deep. This make him very good at going back on balls (as we've all seen make plays at the wall) but bad at those that fall short. 

[dxpavelka]

Jason Heyward's defense is so good--They traded him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually, no.  Santana, Vargas, Dozier and Plouffe.  That was it.

Sorry, I meant ~110 OPS+.  Our whole lineup was basically that last year.  Some might regress, true, but I don't think another hitter at that level with no upside and questionable defense was our top priority.

[tobi0040]

Jason Heyward's defense is so good--They traded him.

 

For a pretty good pitcher with 3-4 additional years of control.   $$$ was a huge factor there.

[Willihammer]

One observation in watching film of him this past year is that he plays deep. This make him very good at going back on balls (as we've all seen make plays at the wall) but bad at those that fall short.

That's certainly something to keep in mind too. An out on a 190 foot foul fly ball can't be worth as much as a 400 footer to the gap. Not that playing deep is always the optimal spot to be...

[Brandon]

If you are worried about his Defense just remember we have Schaefer available to deploy in the late innings of a game and the Twins RF is smaller than Detroits RF.  Does this make everything better??? no but it does minimize the negative impact of his decline in the OF the best we can.  Also Torii can still drive in 80-90 RBI's next season and that too will negate some bad plays.  Overall this is the best we could hope for a 1 year contract from a solid player.  Now its time for the real debate who plays CF next season Santana or Hicks and will Parmalee be outrighted with the Hunter signing? 

[Dr. Evil]

This might be premature to say. But, suppose they decide to rush Buxton along a little and have an outfield of Hicks in left, Buxton in center and Hunter in right with perhaps Rosario in the mix too competing with Hicks. I do like the sounds of Hunter being in the mix mentoring this group.

 

In this scenario, maybe Arcia and Dozier are traded for a top of the rotation starter to give us a 1-2 punch to go with Hughes. Polanco or Escobar or both take over at second base.

 

Maybe mid season Sano gets the call up an Plouffe is traded for a solid bullpen arm.

 

I would find the above scenario at least more interesting to watch.

[nater79a]

Byron Buxton definitely could have gotten to the ball that Torii let drop in the gif. He also would have ended up with a separated shoulder. 

[shs_59]

people really need to end the bashing on this.

 

Maybe come mid april The Twins IN MOLITOR WE TRUST  - will move Torii to DH full time...Ke

 

Kennys Vargas should start the yr in AAA .   While Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler and others are hopefully tearing more so than toiling in AA..... I think ABW should start off in FSL untill someone from AA moves up to AAA.

[tobi0040]

people really need to end the bashing on this.

 

Maybe come mid april The Twins IN MOLITOR WE TRUST  - will move Torii to DH full time...Ke

 

Kennys Vargas should start the yr in AAA .   While Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler and others are hopefully tearing more so than toiling in AA..... I think ABW should start off in FSL untill someone from AA moves up to AAA.

 

Vargas had a .772 OPS for the Twins.  He does not have any defense to work on.  Not sure why he would be at AAA

[Riverbrian]

First, I am sooooper glad you decided to stop reading right after the second GIF and make your comment here. After all, you missed the part where I wrote "Admittedly, without the ability to have MLB StatCast data on both these plays, this is an exercise in imperfection. There are other factors that might have led to the outcome like daytime versus nighttime, the score of the game or whether or not the glove oil fumes were causing dizziness." 

 

The other notable difference not pointed out in the article is that the two plays are slightly different. While Heyward closes in and makes a diving catch on a hard-hit ball, Hunter pulls up on a medium-hit ball. Had Hunter had a good first step or the speed of Heyward, chances are he might not even have had to dive for that ball. 

 

Second, since it was pointed out, yes, he suddenly did decide to play it safe because just one inning prior to that, he did this:

 

http://i.imgur.com/zH5YLR4.gif

 

This, is Hunter playing an Eric Fryer lazy fly ball into a triple when he could have gotten in front of it.

 

Last, this was a representation, not trying to make a straight-line comparison because, in the end, there is nothing that is more accurate than the data. When you compare the data, Heyward is able to get to far more balls than Hunter. The real cherrypicking would have been had I shown three or four highlights of Hunter diving or making plays at the wall.

 

Ok... That GIF is awfully damning. If I saw Hunter do that in a Twins uniform... I'd be pissed at him for a week... At least.

 

Regardless... It's one play... He'd have to Delmon Young a few like that before I gave up and say he's a butcher.

 

On the defensive metrics... Outfield metrics are dominated by the routine ball.

 

Make one mistake on one routine ball and you are immediately put into a UZR hole that is impossible to climb out of.

 

It's like ERA for a RP that's throws three or five innings a week. One bad day where you give up 8 runs in a third of an inning... it's going to take a bunch of scoreless innings to correct it and that will take a while if you only throw a couple of innings in a week.

 

UZR is the same... One bad play... One botched ball in a high percentage zone is like giving up 8 runs in a third of an inning for a pitcher and your chances to correct it are overwhelmingly routine leaving you only a couple of non routine plays a week to make a dent in the bad UZR number,

 

Shift to the wrong spot at the behest of coaches and have the shift cause a ball to land in a zone where the ball is normally caught and you are in a big UZR hole.

 

Everybody is catching routine balls... catching the routine ball fixes nothing in the UZR world once one routine ball is misplayed.

 

I've never consider Torii to be a range guy but I will not use UZR data to support my hypothesis. It's flawed... Half cooked uselessness at this point. The fluctuations from year to year is an obvious indicator of its flaws.

 

To me... Defense is all about moments. Can you make the play when the pitcher and team needs it? Torii used to be pretty good at that... Let's see if he still is at age 57 or whatever.

[tobi0040]

Ok... That GIF is awfully damning. If I saw Hunter do that in a Twins uniform... I'd be pissed at him for a week... At least.

 

Regardless... It's one play... He'd have to Delmon Young a few like that before I gave up and say he's a butcher.

 

On the defensive metrics... Outfield metrics are dominated by the routine ball.

 

Make one mistake on one routine ball and you are immediately put into a UZR hole that is impossible to climb out of.

 

It's like ERA for a RP that's throws three or five innings a week. One bad day where you give up 8 runs in a third of an inning... it's going to take a bunch of scoreless innings to correct it and that will take a while if you only throw a couple of innings in a week.

 

UZR is the same... One bad play... One botched ball in a high percentage zone is like giving up 8 runs in a third of an inning for a pitcher and your chances to correct it are overwhelmingly routine leaving you only a couple of non routine plays a week to make a dent in the bad UZR number,

 

Shift to the wrong spot at the behest of coaches and have the shift cause a ball to land in a zone where the ball is normally caught and you are in a big UZR hole.

 

Everybody is catching routine balls... catching the routine ball fixes nothing in the UZR world once one routine ball is misplayed.

 

I've never consider Torii to be a range guy but I will not use UZR data to support my hypothesis. It's flawed... Half cooked uselessness at this point. The fluctuations from year to year is an obvious indicator of its flaws.

 

To me... Defense is all about moments. Can you make the play when the pitcher and team needs it? Torii used to be pretty good at that... Let's see if he still is at age 57 or whatever.

 

No more of that Ole BS.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ccUDrB_8jQ

[Parker Hageman]

Everybody is catching routine balls... catching the routine ball fixes nothing in the UZR world once one routine ball is misplayed.

 

 

Completely understand your plight against UZR but your comments seem to overlook the fact that Inside Edge's numbers based on video scouts confirm what his UZR is saying. Likewise, raw batted ball data is also suggesting he is not able to cover as much ground as the top defenders. I believe those three lenses provides a clear picture about his level of defense in 2014. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the defensive metrics... Outfield metrics are dominated by the routine ball.

 

Make one mistake on one routine ball and you are immediately put into a UZR hole that is impossible to climb out of.

I'm not sure one or two routine misplays make a guy worst in the league in UZR.

 

Also, many players can probably make a few outstanding plays to balance a couple botched routine ones.  Hunter has probably done that for most of his career.  If he started failing to do that the past 2 years, at ages 38 and 39, isn't that notable?

[tobi0040]

How about this for a thought.....

 

"It's year to year, but I plan on being there the rest of my career," Hunter said. "If I go hit .280 with 17 (homers) and 83 (runs batted in) again, I'm playing again. If I do that, I'm pretty sure the Twins will have me back."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_27054560/minnesota-twins-sign-torii-hunter-one-year-deal

 

Can anyone rule this out, 100%?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Berardino says the Twins won't offer Hunter more than $5 mil for 2016.

[Willihammer]

I appreciate the chasm between lousy defenders and elite ones like Heyward. But for purposes of who the Twins could sign in free agency, here is how Hunter's 2014 season compares to the other OFers on MLBTR's top 50 FA leaderboard (I've also included Heyward just to emphasize what an outlier he is).

I threw out innings in CF and any player-position combo under 200 innings.

Anyone care to guess who is who?
 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I wouldn't do anything that would take Arcia out of RF.  He's gotta improve his defense and moving him around isn't gonna help a bit, just like the rest of the young planers.

 

I just can't get over the $10mil contract.  That's way over the top for a player/coach type guy.

[nater79a]

Berardino says the Twins won't offer Hunter more than $5 mil for 2016.

 

Hunter in 2016?

 

If guys like Buxton & Rosario are not patrolling the OF by 2016 it's going to be a whole lot longer than I thought before the Twins are championship contenders.

[Riverbrian]

No more of that Ole BS.

 

Yeah... Torii!!! That isn't even close to how you coach it.

 

BTW... My iPad struggles to load video now and webpages constantly reload after the latest update. I'm pretty pissed at Apple right now.

[Mike Sixel]

I had to reboot my ipad after the last update to get video to work. Like, days later. Works fine now.

[DuluthFan]

 

Quote

    Nothing like pick and choosing stats, in this case specific plays.

    

 

First, I am sooooper glad you decided to stop reading right after the second GIF and make your comment here. After all, you missed the part where I wrote "Admittedly, without the ability to have MLB StatCast data on both these plays, this is an exercise in imperfection. There are other factors that might have led to the outcome like daytime versus nighttime, the score of the game or whether or not the glove oil fumes were causing dizziness."

 

I guess I put more weight on the next two sentences used to conclude that paragraph.

 

 

These two plays were selected based on the hit type, estimated hang time, direction and perceived distance from the right fielder to the play. What the two examples show is the visual difference in the person with the highest UZR (Heyward) and the person with the lowest (Hunter) on a very similar play.

 

Videos, charts and gifs can provide comprehension and understanding for dry recitation of stats. Had I not viewed the full videos of the two examples, I would not have known the game situations were different. They were presented and described as being similar plays.