Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure

[davidc3915]

Just read that there's a full no trade clause in the deal. So flipping him for prospects in July is out. I was resigned to being ok with it until I read that. But in the end it's a one year deal.....

[Brandon]

Judging from reading the reaction of the StarTribune (Dec. 3), I infer this decision to sign Hunter came from the top--DSP/Pohlad.  The Twins' "spin machine" went into overdrive and produced an over-the-top, gushing endorsement of this signing.  The constant "talk" of "mentoring", teaching, leading, etc. transforms Hunter into some sort of Marvel super-hero character who will spin straw into gold.

 

But, this "trick" was tried before:  the 90's,  Winfield, Molior, it didn't work then--and won't work now.  Hiring Molitor as manager was simply part of the marketing "trick" rather than a move in  a different direction with a familiar face.  Bring back Hunter is simply a continuation of the same misdirection hoping to convince fans to care (and spend) in hope that old and familiar faces is the path to entertaining baseball.

It was also tried in 91 with Jack Morris leading the young pitchers on the Twins staff and that worked out pretty well.

[dxpavelka]

Our rotation should be crying themselves into a bottle tonight.

Our rotation (and our fan base) should spend more time worrying about doing their own job and less time looking for excuses.

[Brandon]

With so many of us, who typically don't necessarily agree with one another on much, all in relative agreement that this is not a good thing, the only natural conclusion is that it will turn out to be brilliant for both the Twins and Hunter.

 

At least I hope so.

I think signing Hunter is a good thing.  Its not as bad as you think.  its one year, he's gonna hit 15-20 HRs with 30ish 2Bs and drive in 80-90 RBIs. plus our RF is smaller than Detroit's so defense won't stick out too much.  Our offense should be a top 5 offense if Santana, Suzuki and Escobar can have repeat seasons.

 

If we can find another solid starter we should be able to contend next year and at least be over .500. 

[tobi0040]

I think signing Hunter is a good thing.  Its not as bad as you think.  its one year, he's gonna hit 15-20 HRs with 30ish 2Bs and drive in 80-90 RBIs. plus our RF is smaller than Detroit's so defense won't stick out too much.  Our offense should be a top 5 offense if Santana, Suzuki and Escobar can have repeat seasons.

 

If we can find another solid starter we should be able to contend next year and at least be over .500. 

 

The issue is we were 5th in runs last year and still lost 90 whatever games.  So is Hunter over Willingham defensively and one solid starter (who I doubt we will sign) going to add the 12 wins needed to get to .500, or more to actually contend?

 

The motivation, best I can tell is to hold Hicks hand and appease a new manager who was fed up with the culture.  How that will move the needle next year is up for debate, at best.

Edited December 3, 2014 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

Just read that there's a full no trade clause in the deal. So flipping him for prospects in July is out. I was resigned to being ok with it until I read that. But in the end it's a one year deal.....

Makes sense. He can still be traded, he just has to approve it first.

 

I think SD Buhr has it.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Willihammer

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I guess there are pros to this move.

 

Pro - Adding Hunter's bat to the lineup

Pro - It's only a one year deal

Pro - Molitor could have Hicks/Hunter/Santana in the OF lineup against "tough lefties"

 

That's... about it. Torii was one of my favorite players (not just on the Twins) in his prime, so some part of me is very happy that he will be playing for the Twins again. The logical part of me, however, sees this as such a wrong headed move. It adds a player that solves none of the glaring problems of the 2014 version of the Twins, but it does add a sizeable $$$ to the payroll, effectively limiting further moves that could have been made.

[nicksaviking]

Just read that there's a full no trade clause in the deal. So flipping him for prospects in July is out. I was resigned to being ok with it until I read that. But in the end it's a one year deal.....

 

Yeah, I actually think this is actually a no-trade-clause that indicates a trade is even more likely.  Demanding a full-NTC means Hunter wants control of where he goes, and if Hunter insists on the final say of where he goes, that likely means he wants to be playing in the playoffs ten months from now.

[nicksaviking]

Boy, you know we've been starved for any kind of meaningful Twins news when a one year stop-gap signing brings this many hot-blooded points of view to both sides of the debate!

 

$20 bucks says that in ten years someone's going to say, "Hey, remember that time the Twins brought Torii Hunter back for one season?  That was so extremely......uneventful."

[ashbury]

It adds a player that solves none of the glaring problems of the 2014 version of the Twins,

I'm not much of a fan of the signing, but IMO it addresses one thing I'm worried about: that the run-scoring the Twins did in 2014 was partly a mirage and could take a step backward as the young'uns develop.  Hunter has age going against him but still might be less prone to regression than some guys (not named Mauer) who based exciting results on high Babip.

[Mike Sixel]

I think perhaps one lesson we can relearn from this is the problem with " wait until you have specific needs and/or are one player away before signing a free agent" line of reasoning.

 

The Twins pretty clearly needed an OFer...and the choices available were unimpressive, to say the least.

 

I think it's always better to add to what you have when you can, no matter where you are on the "competitive curve" so you aren't forced into worse choices later.

 

Welcome to the team.

[sorney]

Seems odd so many people are so sure he'll put up good numbers....How many 40 year old OF's put up good numbers?  There's a reason there are few 40 year olds in the MLB period.  

[tobi0040]

Boy, you know we've been starved for any kind of meaningful Twins news when a one year stop-gap signing brings this many hot-blooded points of view to both sides of the debate!

 

$20 bucks says that in ten years someone's going to say, "Hey, remember that time the Twins brought Torii Hunter back for one season?  That was so extremely......uneventful."

 

I guess I have three main issues with it. 

 

1) Our needs our OF defense and pitching.  This does nothing to address either.

 

2) Our #1 target was a 40 year old guy who played here 8 seasons ago. A guy I think Keith Law accurately described as "barely better than replacement level".  When you aim low and hit your target, you still lose.

 

3) I had this optimism built up that the franchise was moving into the direction of better utilyzing statistics to improve the club.   Targeting Torii goes counter to that and deflates most of that optimism. Especially if reports are true that it was Molitor pushing for Torii. 

[nicksaviking]

Seems odd so many people are so sure he'll put up good numbers....How many 40 year old OF's put up good numbers?  There's a reason there are few 40 year olds in the MLB period.  

 

True, but the same can usually be said about 39-year-old outfielders. 

 

I don't think he'll hit as well as he did protected by that Tigers lineup.  On the other hand, I think there's a pretty good chance that he'll hit better than any other free agent bat the Twins could/would bring in. 

 

Rios was my choice if they were going to get a free agent OF, but if you have to wait for him, you might get nothing at all.

[James Richter]

The issue is we were 5th in runs last year and still lost 90 whatever games.  So is Hunter over Willingham defensively and one solid starter (who I doubt we will sign) going to add the 12 wins needed to get to .500, or more to actually contend?

They don't need to add 12 wins, they need to decrease their run differential by 63. Hunter's bat will be better for the offense, but it's not going to be nearly enough to make up that difference. Adding an elite defensive OF instead might have gone farther to subtract runs from the other side of the ledger. 

 

Anyway, hope everybody likes high-scoring games...

[nicksaviking]

I guess I have three main issues with it. 

 

1) Our needs our OF defense and pitching.  This does nothing to address either.

 

2) Our #1 target was a 40 year old guy who played here 8 seasons ago. A guy I think Keith Law accurately described as "barely better than replacement level".  When you aim low and hit your target, you still lose.

 

3) I had this optimism built up that the franchise was moving into the direction of better utilyzing statistics to improve the club.   Targeting Torii goes counter to that and deflates most of that optimism. Especially if reports are true that it was Molitor pushing for Torii. 

 

I agree with number 3 but only in so far as I'm not sure which direction the club is aiming for here.  I wanted to go younger.  However, how do we know that they aren't using advanced data?  Perhaps they are using information not found on Fangraphs or any other fan accessable baseball site.  All things being equal, he's a bad outfielder, but all things are not equal, namely Comerica Park and Target Field are not equal, not even close.  Perhaps the Twins are thinking the now accepted defensive measurements don't work when comparing their stadium to stadium X, and perhaps they have forumals that adjust for range needed in TF compared to stadium X.

 

We don't know Hunter's affect on the defense.  I know many want to go by the book, but I find it highly unlikely that he's not an upgrade over Willingham and Arcia.  And the fact that any data would suggest it, probably is good reason not to trust it. 

 

As for #2, I don't know what Law is on, but Hunter hasn't been barely better than a replacement level player since his early days for the Twins.  Perhaps he will be in 2015, but he wasn't in 2014 or any time in the previous decade.  Also, while it's likely he was the Twins top target, for all we know Rios, or any other OF already told them no, or that they are waiting until February to sign.  The pickings were slim, I'm not sure how high you could really aim with this group.

Edited December 3, 2014 by nicksaviking

[tobi0040]

They don't need to add 12 wins, they need to decrease their run differential by 63. Hunter's bat will be better for the offense, but it's not going to be nearly enough to make up that difference. Adding an elite defensive OF instead might have gone farther to subtract runs from the other side of the ledger. 

 

I was using the same logic, but taking a step further (runs lead to wins). 

 

I think Josh in LF and Arcia in RF is about on par with Arcia in LF and Hunter in RF.   Defensive metrics had Arcia better than Hunter last year.  But Arcia scares me in LF.  I think this is probably a wash or close to it.

 

Willingham had an OPS of .747 in 70 games.  Hunter had an OPS of .765.  So it is hard to make a meaningful dent in the run differential here

[sorney]

True, but the same can usually be said about 39-year-old outfielders. 

 

Which I guess is my point....why bring in an old OF, that is nearly replacement level, that isn't going to transform the teams fortunes, AND has a no trade so you can't flip him for assets (without his permission) at the trade deadline??  Just seems odd

Edited December 3, 2014 by sorney

[Steven Buhr]

Makes sense. He can still be traded, he just has to approve it first.

 

I think SD Buhr has it.

Yeah, this doesn't change my opinion at all. It would be surprising if Hunter didn't have some sort of no-trade protection. Just means he's protected from getting traded to a team he thinks has a really poor chance of making the postseason. If the time comes and he has a chance to make a deep October run, he'll waive the no-trade.

[Steven Buhr]

Boy, you know we've been starved for any kind of meaningful Twins news when a one year stop-gap signing brings this many hot-blooded points of view to both sides of the debate!

 

$20 bucks says that in ten years someone's going to say, "Hey, remember that time the Twins brought Torii Hunter back for one season?  That was so extremely......uneventful."

Beats the hell out of continuing to debate the relative pros and cons of base coaches we've never heard of, though.

[TheLeviathan]

Our rotation (and our fan base) should spend more time worrying about doing their own job and less time looking for excuses.

 

Wait....so what's your point?  They just have to suck it up and ignore a dude bumbling his way around the outfield to the tune of 3-4 runs on their stat sheet?

 

That's not how baseball works.  They can worry until the cows come home about doing their job and it won't matter a lick if they give up soft contact and watch it drop routinely in front of our OF when many other OFs would've turned it into an out.

 

This team was friggin AWFUL at preventing runs and if you think that was only because of the pitching staff and "Excuse making" you are sadly mistaken.  Defense - across the diamond - matters.  And it matters more when you populate your staff with flyball pitchers.  I feel bad for the young kids coming up to pitch for our team that have this gaggle of poor fielders roaming the spacious OF of Target Field.  That's not an excuse, that's the reality of how the game is played.

[nicksaviking]

Beats the hell out of continuing to debate the relative pros and cons of base coaches we've never heard of, though.

 

Agreed.  This is the best discussion we've had since the trade deadline!

[nicksaviking]

Wait....so what's your point?  They just have to suck it up and ignore a dude bumbling his way around the outfield to the tune of 3-4 runs on their stat sheet?

 

 

My take on the comment was perhaps the pitchers should find the catcher's glove more often instead of making the outfielders get all of their outs for them.

Edited December 3, 2014 by nicksaviking

[TheLeviathan]

My take on the comment was perhaps the pitchers should find the catcher's glove more often instead of making the outfielders get all of their outs for them.

 

So we want a leopard to start having stripes?  These guys are what they are, it's not like they'll magically become Randy Johnson when they stop making excuses.

 

The front office brought a bunch of high contact, fly ball pitchers in and are now fielding a defense that looks like they all put their foreheads on bats and spun around for 10 minutes before taking the field.  

[Brandon]

The issue is we were 5th in runs last year and still lost 90 whatever games.  So is Hunter over Willingham defensively and one solid starter (who I doubt we will sign) going to add the 12 wins needed to get to .500, or more to actually contend?

 

The motivation, best I can tell is to hold Hicks hand and appease a new manager who was fed up with the culture.  How that will move the needle next year is up for debate, at best.

Last year we improved our run differential by over 100 runs over the 2012 season.  we should have been a 72-75 win team last year based on that. 

 

I expect next year Nolasco will rebound to the 12-15 game winning 200 inning pitcher we expect and that gives us 3 decent starters with Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco.  A 4th starter and Millone, Meyer or May as the 5th starter gives us depth in the rotation and likely more than enough improvement over Corriea (4.94 ERA), Deduno (while in the rotation 5.91 ERA) Pelfry (7.99 ERA), Pino (5.07) , and May's tryout (7.88 ERA) at the end of the season.  That alone will improve our rotation from one of the worst in the league to 6th -8th range making our ability with a bullpen that is above average 4-6th range as a better than average pitching with high scoring offense = a winning season on paper.  With Nolasco shaving a run off of his ERA, a 4th starter shaving 1.5 runs off of Corriea and continued development from the 3 competing for the last spot which should equal at least 1 or 2 full runs shaved off of what our 5th starters did last year, our run differential will improve enough to make us a winning team and possibly a contender. 

Edited December 3, 2014 by Brandon

[Mike Sixel]

Wait, did someone just type that the SP staff would be top 10 in the league next year?

[stringer bell]

I didn't hear Torii's press conference, but according to Barriero, Torii will finish his career as a Twins, so (if true) all this talk about a trade at the deadline is a non-issue. I still don't like the move, especially moving Arcia and probably hurting the already-porous outfield defense.

 

I wrote this earlier, but Hunter has been a marvel, producing at a high level in his late 30s. However, he could fall flat at any time and I have to believe that hitting between Kinsler and Miggy offered him a huge lift in his numbers.

 

I want to yell "BS" about leadership. I don't think the Twins have had bad chemistry, they've had bad pitching and overall talent.

 

I think Souhan's column is illustrative. Torii is interesting and quotable. That in and of itself doesn't make him a leader, but it sure makes reporting or writing about the Twins a lot easier. He does provide a great example of what staying in shape and working on one's craft can do for a career.

[jokin]

I want to yell "BS" about leadership. I don't think the Twins have had bad chemistry, they've had bad pitching and overall talent.

 

 

 

Terry Ryan, and Paul Molitor, to an even greater extent, are staking their careers on the exact opposite assessment.

[dxpavelka]

So we want a leopard to start having stripes?  These guys are what they are, it's not like they'll magically become Randy Johnson when they stop making excuses.

 

The front office brought a bunch of high contact, fly ball pitchers in and are now fielding a defense that looks like they all put their foreheads on bats and spun around for 10 minutes before taking the field.  

Although most fans haven't figured it out yet, this team has been moving away from the "pitch to contact" philosophy for years.  The problem is that it takes a long time to change an organizational philosophy and you do so from the the bottom of the system up.  The power arms will start hitting the big leagues soon enough.  Phil Hughes is somewhat of a high ball/fly ball pitcher and the outfield defense didn't negatively affect him.  Why?  Because he is a good pitcher, throws strikes and takes care of his own business.

[dxpavelka]

I think, from what I've read from players, it's Hunter's encouragement that has been helpful.  He's not going to make a bad player good.  But he might be able to get a player to better understand the daily grind, the problems of giving away at bats, leaving personal stuff at home, not worrying too much about an 0-7 stretch etc etc which might make them better at baseball.

 

A lot of people in LA loved how Hunter kept the team together after the young pitcher was killed in that car accident. 

Span never hit the big leagues until Hunter left.  Not sure a few weeks in spring training qualifies as a big time mentoring experience.