Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure

[Brock Beauchamp]

For that matter, it's not at all clear there will be a great trade market for Hunter -- 40 year old corner OF, questionable defense, solid slightly above average bat, making ~$2 mil a month -- that's not necessarily an easy sell.

Yep. If Hunter falls apart - or is just mediocre with the bat - teams aren't going to line up to give him $4m at the deadline.

[TheLeviathan]

You seem to forget just how horrible (at offense and defense) the Twins OF'ers have been the last few years.  I also understand how much fun it is to rag on Hunter's terrible defensive season (stat based) but I think he's probably middle of the road as far as recent Twins OF'ers.  Kubel?  Colabello?  Nunez?  Herrmann?  Parmelee?  Willy?  Arcia?  that is just guys from last season.  At least Hunter could hit last season which is more than almost all of those guys can say.

 

Oh I fully remember how bad they were.  Even if Hunter is marginally better (by most accounts I've read that isn't true - he was rated the worst defensive OF by the metrics.  I don't trust them, but they can be an indicator) - we're now taking that marginally better player and moving a bad defender to a position they are worse at and uncomfortable with.  So even if Hunter is a bit better than Arcia in RF, Arcia in LF is for sure worse than Nunez and even Willingham.  As sad as that is to say.

 

There is just nothing to like about this.

Edited December 3, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[tobi0040]

Yep. If Hunter falls apart - or is just mediocre with the bat - teams aren't going to line up to give him $4m at the deadline.

 

I agree.  My personal read is that Torii had interest in us to drive his price up and get more out of a contending team.  The fact that he signed here speaks to the fact that the level of interest was not high.

[jokin]

, making ~$2 mil a month -- that's not necessarily an easy sell.

 

$10.5/6 = $1.75M

 

$3.5M for a two month rental for a guy with an OPS+ of 111 (if he maintains his 2014 level) isn't going to deter anyone desperately looking for a bat and a veteran of multiple pennant runs.

Edited December 3, 2014 by jokin

[D. Hocking]

 PS. Just curious. How would most posters have felt if the Twins had signed Cuddyer  to a 21M/2yr deal like the Mets did..assuming Cuddyer would have been willing to come back. Would that be viewed as a better/worse deal than Hunter?

 

 Worse -- largely because of the two years, but also because while Cuddy is a little younger, I think Hunter is more likely to remain healthy throughout the season.

[Steven Buhr]

Yep. If Hunter falls apart - or is just mediocre with the bat - teams aren't going to line up to give him $4m at the deadline.

But that's on Hunter. I think the Twins may have used the, "we will find you a contender in July," line as a way to counter a desire on Hunter's part to chase a ring.

 

Implied in that statement is that Hunter has to remain healthy and be productive enough that there is demand for his services in July. If that's not the case, that's not the Twins' fault and they're simply in a position where they have to eat his salary, which you have to be prepared to do any time you make an offer like this.

 

If Hunter has a terrible year, he probably was going to get sent packing by any "contender" he might have otherwise signed with, anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

$10.5/6 = $1.75M

 

$3.5M for a two month rental for a guy with an OPS+ of 111 (if he maintains his 2014 level) isn't going to deter anyone desperately looking for a bat and a veteran of multiple pennant runs.

I didn't mean it would fully deter them, but it takes some of the steam out of what is probably a marginal upgrade. Remember we had to twist arms to give away Morneau.

[tobi0040]

I just posted this on Thrylos's blog post about Torii and the topic of the losing culture. Thought I would post here as well:

 

I think this team has had a talent issue and we are kidding ourselves to think that Torii Hunter punching somebody is going to change any of the following:

 

Starting pitching - Bottom three in starter ERA for 4 years running.

 

OF defense - we were terrible last year.  Swapping Willingham-Arcia in LF-RF for Arcia-Hunter is not going to markedly change that.

 

Aaron Hicks has hit right handed pitching at a clip of a .512 OPS

 

Oswaldo Arcia has hit lefties at a clip of a .574 OPS

 

Joe Mauer - Has not been Joe Mauer.

[USAFChief]

So even if Hunter is a bit better than Arcia in RF, Arcia in LF is for sure worse than Nunez and even Willingham.

I think you have that backwards...Arcia in left is almost surely better than Nunez and Willingham.

 

The move from RF to LF isn't like moving from RF to SS. The two corners are mirror images of one another, and spring is plenty long enough to learn the move. Arcia isn't a good outfielder in either corner, but he's not going to be significantly worse by switching sides.

[Mike Sixel]

Tell that to Delmon Young, chief.....

 

when did Arcia last play LF? If he takes bad routes, is that likely to improve seeing the ball in another angle? If he isn't super fast, is moving him to the larger field a good idea? If Hunter is gone in a year, and Arcia is your RF after that.....why not leave Arcia in RF, and move Torri, I'm a great leader and teammate and will do whatever it takes to win, to LF?

[TheLeviathan]

I think you have that backwards...Arcia in left is almost surely better than Nunez and Willingham.

 

The move from RF to LF isn't like moving from RF to SS. The two corners are mirror images of one another, and spring is plenty long enough to learn the move. Arcia isn't a good outfielder in either corner, but he's not going to be significantly worse by switching sides.

 

I'm not 100% on this, but I seem to recall Arcia playing in LF for the Twins some in the last few years and the broadcast team and the team itself saying he wasn't comfortable there and he was playing it very poorly.

[USAFChief]

Tell that to Delmon Young, chief.....

 

when did Arcia last play LF? If he takes bad routes, is that likely to improve seeing the ball in another angle? If he isn't super fast, is moving him to the larger field a good idea? If Hunter is gone in a year, and Arcia is your RF after that.....why not leave Arcia in RF, and move Torri, I'm a great leader and teammate and will do whatever it takes to win, to LF?

I would be fine with leaving Arcia in RF. I just don't think moving him...if they do...is going to make much difference.

 

BTW, the last time Delmon Young was the Twins full time left fielder they won 94 games and gave up 671 runs on the season.

[nicksaviking]

I think you just summed up the problem with this signing. The easiest way to improve a pitching staff that doesn't involve actually signing better pitchers is to shore up the defense.

 

The Twins just doubled down on an older version of Josh Willingham with a slightly better bat. It's not a terrible deal because it's a one year contract but it is disappointing to see the front office continue to ignore such a large problem.

 

That sounds like trying to treat the disease instead of actually curing it.  Pharmaceutical companies love that stratagy, but it doesn't mean you're any less sick. 

 

People need to stop and consider how silly putting this much weight in defensive metrics are if we are using them in a bubble.  Using any common sense should show that Hunter is a better defender than Josh Willingham, Chris Colabello and Oswaldo Arcia, he's clearly a better athlete and he's played the position for decades.  It's not a coincidence that his defensive numbers went in the toilet at the same time he moved to Comerica.  It was the ballpark and I don't know how this is clear as day.

 

Dislike the move because it departs from the youth movement, the defense was upgraded, even if it wasn't improved to an elite level that some may want.  That just wasn't happening without sacraficing offense, and I'm not giving up offense for defense.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be fine with leaving Arcia in RF. I just don't think moving him...if they do...is going to make much difference.

 

BTW, the last time Delmon Young was the Twins full time left fielder they won 94 games and gave up 671 runs on the season.

 

Not because of Young being left......that was just a better team. Like I said in another post, maybe they are just going to try to outscore everyone. It has worked for other teams.

[USAFChief]

Not because of Young being left......that was just a better team. Like I said in another post, maybe they are just going to try to outscore everyone. It has worked for other teams.

It was a better team...despite bad corner OF defense.

 

Perhaps it's not all that critical.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not 100% on this, but I seem to recall Arcia playing in LF for the Twins some in the last few years and the broadcast team and the team itself saying he wasn't comfortable there and he was playing it very poorly.

 

Well I'm hoping the new regime is past the days of the players dictating where they play.  Willingham should have been in RF, Mauer should have also learned to play corner OF and Delmon Young should have been happy to have a spot anywhere on the field. 

 

My money is on Molitor telling players who demand certain positions, "I'll take your suggestion under advisement.  Now get out of my office and get back in the batting cage where I told you to be ten minutes ago."

[Shane Wahl]

1. Santana, SS

2. Mauer, 1B

3. Hunter, LEFT FIELD please

4. Vargas, DH

5. Dozier, 2B

6. Arcia, RF

7. Plouffe, 3B

8. Suzuki, C

9. Hicks, CF

 

The Hunter addition, if he can maintain his bat even from last year, makes the lineup interestingly balanced with the movement of a slugging Dozier down behind Vargas.

Any talk of Arcia starting in AAA makes me queasy. There is zero need for that. And the same goes for Pinto.

Now I don't want to derail this, but wouldn't it be interesting to consider an honest move of Joe Mauer to LF (for now) some of the time, with Vargas getting more 1B time, and Hunter DHing?



 

[Shane Wahl]

Note: I really don't expect Santana or Vargas to suffer a sophomore regression by all that much. Clearly, if they do . . . this lineup is totally . . . . (insert any bad word you may want).

[Dantes929]

Why are we assuming Hunter will go to right and Arcia to left?     If Hunter goes to left it is an immediate improvement defensively over Willingham so we just went from really really bad OF defense to just really bad.   Later Buxton for Hicks and Hicks for Hunter and we probably go to at least average which should be huge especially since we are probably going to be more of a strikeout staff shortly with Hughes, Meyer, May and Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

I was told that was part of the announcement.....that Hunter would be in RF, and Arcia in LF. If not, as I said, this decreases to hate, not super hate, the move. It might even drop it to dislike.

[nicksaviking]

1. Santana, SS

2. Mauer, 1B

3. Hunter, LEFT FIELD please

4. Vargas, DH

5. Dozier, 2B

6. Arcia, RF

7. Plouffe, 3B

8. Suzuki, C

9. Hicks, CF

 

The Hunter addition, if he can maintain his bat even from last year, makes the lineup interestingly balanced with the movement of a slugging Dozier down behind Vargas.

 

 

 

Yes, his bat should be a plus, it seems well suited to TF. 

 

The defense was so bad last year that it seems no one cares about anything else.  No one has even broached the positives and negatives about his addition to the lineup. 

Edited December 3, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Mike Sixel]

I have... I have said maybe they are just trying to outscore the other team this year, I've said it like three times now....

[ashbury]

~$2 mil a month -- that's not necessarily an easy sell.

Too bad if Terry Ryan didn't think to front-load the deal.

[golfboy1]

 I agree that just being better than Willingham, etc.might not be the ultimate goal it's still better than getting worse.

 

 I guess I am placing some/more value on Hunter being a good veteran presence than some others are. This team could use someone to light a fire under them at times. Mauer doesn't have that personality & I don't think Rios, Rasmus or Aoki would have that affect either.

 

 If not Hunter...who else? I don't see Rios as much of an upgrade, Rasmus is highly unlikely to want to come here & Aoki might be ok but he's not that great either. The Mets gave Cuddyer  a 2yr./21M deal AND were willing to give up their 1st round pick. It's not like the Twins are going to find a guy who is great on defense and can hit and is young and is a good clubhouse guy just waiting to sign.

 

 Unless the Twins wanted to go with what they have, Hunter is probably as good a choice as anyone else..especially when you factor in his leadership/past ties to the Twins. It's a one yr. deal. It can't be that big of a mistake

[JB_Iowa]

I was told that was part of the announcement.....that Hunter would be in RF, and Arcia in LF. If not, as I said, this decreases to hate, not super hate, the move. It might even drop it to dislike.

 

There hasn't been an announcement yet because he hasn't taken his physical.

[ashbury]

and the broadcast team and the team itself saying he wasn't comfortable there and he was playing it very poorly.

Count on the message suddenly changing.  That should fix the problem.

[ashbury]

Now I don't want to derail this, but wouldn't it be interesting to consider an honest move of Joe Mauer to LF (for now) some of the time, with Vargas getting more 1B time, and Hunter DHing?

Moderator's note: Then start a new thread?

[nicksaviking]

I have... I have said maybe they are just trying to outscore the other team this year, I've said it like three times now....

 

Sorry I missed that.  I'm in the minority I guess, but I like that strategy.  I guess I sound too much like Earl Weaver.  Hope I don't teach my kids too many naughty words.

[USAFChief]

I think perhaps one lesson we can relearn from this is the problem with " wait until you have specific needs and/or are one player away before signing a free agent" line of reasoning.

 

The Twins pretty clearly needed an OFer...and the choices available were unimpressive, to say the least.

 

I think it's always better to add to what you have when you can, no matter where you are on the "competitive curve" so you aren't forced into worse choices later.

[Shane Wahl]

Moderator's note: Then start a new thread?

I was lazy. And just wanted to throw an idea out there. I, for one, am just not going to pay attention to claims made about OF positioning, in general, in December. I am not that bothered by Hunter-Hicks-Arcia right now. I do worry about the potential effect on Vargas and Pinto as DH options in the lineup though. I get worried about Schafer starting a bunch of games in LF.