Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure

[kab21]

Mentoring, who? One of those he should be mentoring will now be in the minors (Rosario), because Torii has his spot. Hitting? No one has mentioned that he has spent several years hitting in front of Miggy. If that does not increase your diet of middle in fastballs nothing will. I wonder if he has ever cured his love of low outside sliders with men on base? Defense? While one can argue metrics to an extent, they do point in a direction. Arcia was the third worst RF last year. My eyes would agree. Hunter was the worst. This move will not make it any easier to sign a FA pitcher. Who want to pitch with that outfield behind them? Why don't we just move Kirby's statue into CF, that would complete the scenario! Sorry about the negativity, but I never ever thought this would really happen. Btw, in closing, his taking the money means winning means nothing to him, only the cash!

 

Rosario was always going to be in the minors after last years disaster.  If he plays well I wouldn't be shocked if he spends some time in CF before Buxton comes.  Or he gets promoted if Arcia or Vargas struggles.  Signing one OF'er doesn't block him.

[TheLeviathan]

And back to the first point.  Somebody has to play in the OF.  If not Hunter then who?

 

By most accounts, Hunter stopped "playing OF" a couple years ago.  Even if that's where he jogs out to during defensive innings.

Edited December 3, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[Mike Sixel]

Man.....theleviathon and I agree super strongly on something, and Seth also agrees with us.....something is really wrong here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last offseason, the most head-scratching series of moves the Twins made was signing Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett and Matt Guerrier, all of whom were aging and coming off down seasons. The strategy was apparently based on familiarity more than anything else, and the outcomes were roundly terrible.

 

On Tuesday, the Twins made their first big splash of this offseason, signing Torii Hunter to a one-year, $10.5 million deal. And while it's certainly a better move than any of those mentioned above,

is this true? Those deals last winter were on paper nonguaranteed fliers, although the fact that they were effectively guaranteed otherwise indeed made them much worse. But they still involved legitimately small amounts of money and only came later in FA after we already signed several pitchers.

[jokin]

Mentoring, who? One of those he should be mentoring will now be in the minors (Rosario), because Torii has his spot. Hitting? No one has mentioned that he has spent several years hitting in front of Miggy. If that does not increase your diet of middle in fastballs nothing will. I wonder if he has ever cured his love of low outside sliders with men on base? Defense? While one can argue metrics to an extent, they do point in a direction. Arcia was the third worst RF last year. My eyes would agree. Hunter was the worst. This move will not make it any easier to sign a FA pitcher. Who want to pitch with that outfield behind them? Why don't we just move Kirby's statue into CF, that would complete the scenario! Sorry about the negativity, but I never ever thought this would really happen. Btw, in closing, his taking the money means winning means nothing to him, only the cash!

 

It's important to note, the Twins were always going to bring in a veteran OFer.  And it's now all too obvious, in Hunter's case, they weren't going to accept "no" for an answer, if at all possible (the last few public quotes from the Hunter camp indicate they played some tough negotiating hard ball with the Twins to up the final number).... somewhat inexplicably, there are other, younger, better veteran OFers who would have signed for less, maybe even on a one-year deal (Rios).  The Molitor and Guardado stuff put it over the top for me, the Twins have been linked with exactly nobody else in the OF all fall.  

 

You ask about Hunter's plate protection, it's pretty clear to start out anyway, that's going to be Mauer.

 

On the "money being the only thing" you mentioned, I'm starting to buy the theory of an "arrangement" as part of the deal- ie, that the Twins pledge to send him to a prime contender in July.  It makes sense, in that rather than guessing on which team has the best shot now, market himself to the top 3 or 4 most likely best-shot teams in July.

Edited December 3, 2014 by jokin

[kab21]

By most accounts, Hunter stopped "playing OF" a couple years ago.  Even if that's where he jogs out to during defensive innings.

 

You seem to forget just how horrible (at offense and defense) the Twins OF'ers have been the last few years.  I also understand how much fun it is to rag on Hunter's terrible defensive season (stat based) but I think he's probably middle of the road as far as recent Twins OF'ers.  Kubel?  Colabello?  Nunez?  Herrmann?  Parmelee?  Willy?  Arcia?  that is just guys from last season.  At least Hunter could hit last season which is more than almost all of those guys can say.

[Mike Sixel]

is this true? Those deals last winter were on paper nonguaranteed fliers, although the fact that they were effectively guaranteed otherwise indeed made them much worse. But they still involved legitimately small amounts of money and only came later in FA after we already signed several pitchers.

 

They took up roster space, it isn't about money, but roster space and opportunity to try to find upside. 

[nicksaviking]

It's a one year deal and Rosario and Buxton probably aren't quite ready, so I'm not upset.  There seems to be quite an overreaction to Hunter's poor defense though.  IF they put him in RF, his defense is going to be just fine.  His awful -18.3 UZR last year was caused entirely by his -18.4 range factor, meaning if it weren't for his decreased range, his defense would have been decent.

 

Clearly his range was going to be magnified in cavernous Comerica Park, if they stick him in RF at Target Field, he'll be moving from one of the parks that demands the most range from it's rightfielder to one of the parks that demands the least.

 

Arcia's problem in RF wasn't his range, but the terrible angles he took and his confusion with the wall.  His range factor was only -4.4.  That should indicate one of two things; either Hunter's range problems are 4x worse than Arcia's, which sounds completely illogical, or the difference between ball parks has an extremely large impact on the perception of the outfielder.

 

I want a young team, so I wasn't too interested in Hunter, but this is going to be far from the disaster movie it is being made out to be.

Edited December 3, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Kwak]

Judging from reading the reaction of the StarTribune (Dec. 3), I infer this decision to sign Hunter came from the top--DSP/Pohlad.  The Twins' "spin machine" went into overdrive and produced an over-the-top, gushing endorsement of this signing.  The constant "talk" of "mentoring", teaching, leading, etc. transforms Hunter into some sort of Marvel super-hero character who will spin straw into gold.

 

But, this "trick" was tried before:  the 90's,  Winfield, Molior, it didn't work then--and won't work now.  Hiring Molitor as manager was simply part of the marketing "trick" rather than a move in  a different direction with a familiar face.  Bring back Hunter is simply a continuation of the same misdirection hoping to convince fans to care (and spend) in hope that old and familiar faces is the path to entertaining baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

It's a one year deal and Rosario and Buxton probably aren't quite ready, so I'm not upset.  There seems to be quite an overreaction to Hunter's poor defense though.  IF they put him in RF, his defense is going to be just fine.  His awful -18.3 UZR last year was caused entirely by his -18.4 range factor, meaning if it weren't for his decreased range, his defense would have been decent.

 

Clearly his range was going to be magnified in cavernous Comerica Park, if they stick him in RF at Target Field, he'll be moving from one of the parks that demands the most range from it's rightfielder to one of the parks that demands the least.

 

Arcia's problem in RF wasn't his range, but the terrible angles he took and his confusion with the wall.  His range factor was only -4.4.  That should indicate one of two things; either Hunter's range problems are 4x worse than Arcia's, which sounds completely illogical, or the difference between ball parks has an extremely large impact on the perception of the outfielder.

 

I want a young team, so I wasn't too interested in Hunter, but this is going to be far from the disaster movie it is being made out to be.

 

And moving Arcia to LF is going to help him take better routes how?

[nicksaviking]

 

But, this "trick" was tried before:  the 90's,  Winfield, Molior, it didn't work then--and won't work now.  Hiring Molitor as manager was simply part of the marketing "trick" rather than a move in  a different direction with a familiar face.  Bring back Hunter is simply a continuation of the same misdirection hoping to convince fans to care (and spend) in hope that old and familiar faces is the path to entertaining baseball.

 

Actually I think Winfield was less of a gimmick, the team was pretty good in 1992.  Winfield was old but just came off a really nice season with Toronto and the Twins were trying to replace Chili Davis.

 

I would say Molitor and also Terry Steinbach felt like gimmick signings at the time, however, as far as Molitor goes, he really was one of the only reasons to even remember that era of Twins baseball.  I loved his chase for 3.000 hits and he played damn well for being in his 40s.  Molitor and Steinbach might have been to entice fans to a terrible product, but Twenty years later, I'm still glad they did it.  I'm happy to have had those guys in Twins uniforms in what we already knew was going to be a long season.

[jokin]

And moving Arcia to LF is going to help him take better routes how?

 

I'm trying to wrap my head around that image,  as I've posted elsewhere, could it be that he's going to be a part-time DH/part-time OF, with some more OF help coming in?  Would Hunter and Arcia share both of those duties in RF with another veteran being brought in for either CF or LF?

[nicksaviking]

And moving Arcia to LF is going to help him take better routes how?

 

No but at least he won't have the wall to deal with.  If Arcia doesn't improve, he's going to to be a liability no matter where he plays. 

[jokin]

No but at least he won't have the wall to deal with.  If Arcia doesn't improve, he's going to to be a liability no matter where he plays. 

 

I just don't think the guy was born with the instincts for the OF, I'm not sure more reps will help to improve significantly in RF, but changing positions and starting all over again likely won't really help, either.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ultimately I hope that hunter can motivate/mentor hicks just like he did to span. If he can turn Hicks into a MLB starter then he earns triple his 10 mil salary this year imo

That narrative doesn't really fit with Span's career path. He looked pretty marginal for 5 years here with Hunter.

[gunnarthor]

That narrative doesn't really fit with Span's career path. He looked pretty marginal for 5 years here with Hunter.

I think, from what I've read from players, it's Hunter's encouragement that has been helpful.  He's not going to make a bad player good.  But he might be able to get a player to better understand the daily grind, the problems of giving away at bats, leaving personal stuff at home, not worrying too much about an 0-7 stretch etc etc which might make them better at baseball.

 

A lot of people in LA loved how Hunter kept the team together after the young pitcher was killed in that car accident. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

What happened to the Berardino speculation that the Twins wouldn't go over about $5 million?

 

$10.5m sure blows that all to h*ll.

Doogie sure beat Berardino on this one (and most of us).

[nicksaviking]

What happened to the Berardino speculation that the Twins wouldn't go over about $5 million?

 

$10.5m sure blows that all to h*ll.

 

The marketing team did the math and decided the Hunter jersey would be the biggest seller this year.  They then casually mentioned to the Pohlads that if the deal was only for one year, those jerseys would then be obsolete after only one season, just in time for people to buy Buxton and Sano jerseys.

[Steven Buhr]

On the "money being the only thing" you mentioned, I'm starting to buy the theory of an "arrangement" as part of the deal- ie, that the Twins pledge to send him to a prime contender in July.  It makes sense, in that rather than guessing on which team has the best shot now, market himself to the top 3 or 4 most likely best-shot teams in July.

That's exactly the conclusion I came to last night as I was writing my article for Knuckleballs. It's the only way this makes sense from Hunter's perspective. Talking about "coming home" is all well and good, but he wouldn't make this move solely out of some emotional attachment to Terry Ryan and the Twins.

 

1-He's getting good money for a 1 year deal, and 2-While I'm not sure Ryan would make a commitment to trading him in July, I don't doubt for a moment that the possibility was discussed. "We have some young outfielders that are close to being MLB ready. If they are, and if there's a deal out there that makes sense for us, we'll do all we can to set you up with a postseason contender. We've done that for others and we would do that for you in the same circumstances."

 

Despite what Texas, Baltimore or Seattle might look like now, there's no way for him to be sure those teams won't just be on the fringe of contention in July. His best strategy for being better positioned to make a postseason run is if he's traded to a team that needs him then.

 

I called it the Josh Willingham gambit and it's the only thing that makes this whole thing logical from Hunter's perspective.

[USAFChief]

What happened to the Berardino speculation that the Twins wouldn't go over about $5 million?

 

$10.5m sure blows that all to h*ll.

Maybe TR was h*ll bent on proving to himself that he really CAN "give our money away."

[tobi0040]

I think, from what I've read from players, it's Hunter's encouragement that has been helpful.  He's not going to make a bad player good.  But he might be able to get a player to better understand the daily grind, the problems of giving away at bats, leaving personal stuff at home, not worrying too much about an 0-7 stretch etc etc which might make them better at baseball.

 

A lot of people in LA loved how Hunter kept the team together after the young pitcher was killed in that car accident. 

 

To be fair, if you are a 24 year old Denard Span and a reporter says "how much has Torrii Hunter helped your development?" or "what is it like watching Torii Hunter go about his business every day"?    You are going to respond in a very positive manner every time.

[Mike Sixel]

That's exactly the conclusion I came to last night as I was writing my article for Knuckleballs. It's the only way this makes sense from Hunter's perspective. Talking about "coming home" is all well and good, but he wouldn't make this move solely out of some emotional attachment to Terry Ryan and the Twins.

 

1-He's getting good money for a 1 year deal, and 2-While I'm not sure Ryan would make a commitment to trading him in July, I don't doubt for a moment that the possibility was discussed. "We have some young outfielders that are close to being MLB ready. If they are, and if there's a deal out there that makes sense for us, we'll do all we can to set you up with a postseason contender. We've done that for others and we would do that for you in the same circumstances."

 

Despite what Texas, Baltimore or Seattle might look like now, there's no way for him to be sure those teams won't just be on the fringe of contention in July. His best strategy for being better positioned to make a postseason run is if he's traded to a team that needs him then.

 

I called it the Josh Willingham gambit and it's the only thing that makes this whole thing logical from Hunter's perspective.

 

I agree with all of this.

[bird]

Man.....theleviathon and I agree super strongly on something, and Seth also agrees with us.....something is really wrong here.

We're in deep doo-doo. Me too.

[Mike Sixel]

We're in deep doo-doo. Me too.

 

Yikes!

[Steven Buhr]

With so many of us, who typically don't necessarily agree with one another on much, all in relative agreement that this is not a good thing, the only natural conclusion is that it will turn out to be brilliant for both the Twins and Hunter.

 

At least I hope so.

[golfboy1]

 I don't think it's a great sign by the Twins but "someone" has to play OF & there aren't a lot of good options available.  It's a one yr. deal & they can probably flip him at the deadline if they feel Rosario is ready.

 

 I don't fully believe the defensive metrics that claim he is terrible. Those same metrics have Nori Aoki as a better defender than Carlos Gomez & list Mike Trout  & Andrew McCutchen as 2 of the worst defenders in all of baseball. They also list Johhny Peralta  as the 3rd best defensive SS last year. Peralta is rated much better than Danny Santana in every stat, including range. I don't believe that.

 

 I saw Hunter play a decent amount of games last year & while he isn't  what he once was he's still better than Willingham, Colabello & Arcia. 

 

 For better or worse, Hunter will let everyone know how he feels about something. This team can probably use a little veteran mentoring. I don't think they would get that with any other signing.

 

  I don't see a lot of other options. They had to pay 10.5M just to get a 39 yr. old OF.   I don't know who else is available that would be worth signing...assuming you don't want to do a 3 or 4 yr. deal.

 

 PS. Just curious. How would most posters have felt if the Twins had signed Cuddyer  to a 21M/2yr deal like the Mets did..assuming Cuddyer would have been willing to come back. Would that be viewed as a better/worse deal than Hunter?

Edited December 3, 2014 by golfboy1

[Otto von Ballpark]

 I don't think it's a great sign by the Twins but "someone" has to play OF & there aren't a lot of good options available.  It's a one yr. deal & they can probably flip him at the deadline if they feel Rosario is ready.

 

 I don't fully believe the defensive metrics that claim he is terrible. Those same metrics have Nori Aoki as a better defender than Carlos Gomez & list Mike Trout  & Andrew McCutchen as 2 of the worst defenders in all of baseball. They also list Johhny Peralta  as the 3rd best defensive SS last year. Peralta is rated much better than Danny Santana in every stat, including range. I don't believe that.

 

 I saw Hunter play a decent amount of games last year & while he isn't  what he once was he's still better than Willingham, Colabello & Arcia. 

 

 For better or worse, Hunter will let everyone know how he feels about something. This team can probably use a little veteran mentoring. I don't think they would get that with any other signing.

 

  I don't see a lot of other options. They had to pay 10.5M just to get a 39 yr. old OF.   I don't know who else is available that would be worth signing...assuming you don't want to do a 3 or 4 yr. deal.

Again, "better than Willingham, Colabello & Arcia" is not the threshold we should be using.  That would be like aiming to improve the starting staff last year and just looking for someone "better than PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez".

 

And there are still other short-term options, Rios and Rasmus being the most prominent on the FA market.

[Mike Sixel]

Then put the 39 year old in LF, and keep the young guy at his natural position. Then I only hate the deal a little, not with the passion of 1000000000 burning suns*

 

*ok, that's an exaggeration

[Brock Beauchamp]

I saw Hunter play a decent amount of games last year & while he isn't  what he once was he's still better than Willingham, Colabello & Arcia. 

I think you just summed up the problem with this signing. The easiest way to improve a pitching staff that doesn't involve actually signing better pitchers is to shore up the defense.

 

The Twins just doubled down on an older version of Josh Willingham with a slightly better bat. It's not a terrible deal because it's a one year contract but it is disappointing to see the front office continue to ignore such a large problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, I am not quite so confident that a July trade is a condition here.  We did see it with Kendrys Morales, and some of the expiring contract vets recently, but Hunter could still be seen as one of "our guys" and I am not sure they ever plan to deal those types.  Remember the dragged out process that was the Morneau trade?

 

For that matter, it's not at all clear there will be a great trade market for Hunter -- 40 year old corner OF, questionable defense, solid slightly above average bat, making ~$2 mil a month -- that's not necessarily an easy sell.