Article: Who Says No? Trevor Plouffe Edition

[Seth Stohs]

We’re back for another round of Who Would Say No? After considering a potential long-term deal for 2B Brian Dozier yesterday, we’ll now consider the merits of a long-term contract for Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe. Look at his numbers and consider what you would do. Leave your comments in the forum.As Thanksgiving approaches, Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe has to be quite thankful. In the last week, two third baseman have signed contracts for at least $95 million. Kyle Seager got $100 million to buy out all three arbitration years and four years of free agency. Pablo Sandoval left the Giants for Beantown, and $95 million.

 

Seager was coming off of a season in which he played in his first All-Star game. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year. Sandoval was a free agent, having won three World Series rings in San Francisco and playing terrifically in this Fall Classic. Plouffe is in his second of four arbitration seasons and had a very solid season, his best yet. Below are two ways to look at and compare the numbers of the three third basemen, 2014 stats and a three-year (2012-14) glimpse.

 

2014 Statistical Comparison

• Trevor Plouffe (age 28) - .258/.328/.423 (.751), 110 OPS+, 40-2B, 14-HR, 80 RBI
• Kyle Seager (age 26) - .268/.334/.454 (.788), 127 OPS+, 27-2B, 25-HR, 96 RBI
• Pablo Sandoval (age 27) - .279/.324/.415 (.739), 111 OPS+, 26-2B, 16-HR, 73 RBI

Seager clearly had the best year, and Sandoval and Plouffe basically had the same year. Now let’s look at the three-year numbers for the three players:

• Trevor Plouffe – .249/.314/.422 (.736), 103 OPS+, 81-2B, 52-HR, 187 RBI
• Kyle Seager – .262/.329/.434 (.764), 118 OPS+, 94-2B, 67-HR, 251 RBI
• Pablo Sandoval – .280/.335/.424 (.759), 116 OPS+, 78-2B, 42-HR, 215 RBI

Again, the Kyle Seager contract isn’t looking so bad anymore, is it? Although he might be lesser-known in Seattle, he has been good for three years and was very good as a 26-year-old in 2014. Sandoval and Plouffe were very similar in 2014, but Sandoval certainly has more of a track record and more consistency in recent years.

 

So, before anyone puts (or thinks I am putting) Trevor Plouffe in the same category as Sandoval and Seager, just don’t. He’s not that, though he’s not far behind. Third base is no longer the power position that it was five years ago. In fact, second base is more of an offensive position in the league now than third base, or at least it has more star-caliber players. However, the two third baseman being signed certainly makes relevant the question of whether the Twins should lock up Plouffe for an extended period.

 

Of course, the proverbial elephant in the proverbial room comes in the form of Miguel Sano. One of baseball’s top prospects, the third baseman missed all of 2014 following Tommy John surgery. Sano will be up at some point, whether it’s in 2015 or early in 2016. I have little doubt that he can play third base. He has the quickness and has a very strong arm (even after Tommy John). The question is, would Trevor Plouffe or Miguel Sano switch positions? Which one would be better in left field at that time? Those are all questions for later, but when it comes to an extension for Plouffe, it does factor into the equation. So does the fact that statistically Trevor Plouffe turned into a very good defensive third baseman in 2014.

 

So, if Trevor Plouffe were to put up just his 2014 numbers for the next few years, what could he make? Here are some estimates:

• 2015 (age 29): 2^nd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to about $4-5 million.
• 2016 (age 30): 3^rd year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $8-10 million.
• 2017 (age 31): 4^th year arbitration-eligible, Plouffe would likely jump to $12-13 million.
• 2018 (age 32): Free Agent

Those estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up some. The other side is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a trade or non-tender candidate. What happens if he moves to left field? Would that affect these numbers? That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides.

 

This paragraph is the same as yesterday and obviously would go into every decision: I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought-process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office.

 

WHO WOULD SAY NO?

 

So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Trevor Plouffe and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No?

• 2015: $5 million.
• 2016: $8 million
• 2017: $10 million
• 2018: $12 million
• 2019: $13 million option with a $1 million buyout.
• 4 year, $36 million contract with a $13 million option to get through his age 33 season.

So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes?

 

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[beckmt]

If Sano does not make it at 3rd this would be reasonable.  I think the Twins should go for this.  If Sano makes it, the cost control would make Plouffe a reasonable trade chip.  Given the inflation if anyone turns this down it would be Plouffe, betting he will continue to improve for at least the next two years.

[highlander]

Speaking as a Twin fan sign'em all. It's Polhads $$$$$$$.  From the Twins perspective I would do this deal with a caveat.  Sano is an ELEPHANT with a big stick in his trunk.  With his big arm right field would be the position for him.  To displace Plouffe, he has become a legitamate MLB defensive hot corner fielder, reminds me of the Twins trading a budding Greg Nettles to the Yankees over $$$.

 

If the goal is truly to win it all Plouffe provides a solid stick, flashes above average leather, is a solid citizen in the clubhouse.  In other words a building block of a championship team.  An infield of 1B Mauer 2B Dozier SS Santana 3B Plouffe provides offense , defense, and a positive clubhouse presence.

 

The outfield, and I have NOT given up hope on Hicks, LF Hicks, CF Buxton, and RF Sano.  The DH "El Toro" Arcia.  H2O covers 75% of the earth Buxton and Hicks can cover the rest.  This provides you with offense and defense.

 

That leaves the perennial problem with the pitching staff.

 

If I was the Twins I sign both Dozier and Plouffe to multiple year deals that are front loaded.  Similar to the way Spielman is managing the Vikings salary cap. 

[minnesota transplant]

Interesting again.  If I knew he was going to be THE thirdbaseman going forward and not Sano, I maybe would do something.  Saying that, I would want to see another year like last year out of him.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

I like Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe. They have a chemistry that one can sense around the batting cage, and during warmups. They are also under team control for the next 3 to 4 seasons. Why overpay now, when Sano and Polanco are emerging? Rosario is also an interesting option, although he seems to be headed back to the outfield. Are his days at 2b over? Maybe not.

 

We'll know much more about Sano by June, if not by the end of Spring Training. The same is true with Rosario. So, I say the Twins should keep their options open, and leave these two roster/payroll decisions until after the 2015 season. I say no.

[jorgenswest]

Great discussion starter.

 

I would say no if I were the Twins. I wouldn't want to touch the age 33 season.

 

I liked Doc Bauer's idea in the Dozier thread. They appear to have the money this year. If the salaries don't escalate he stays a little easier to trade. How about 4/34 with no escalation? Who would say no?

[Trov]

I would say no to this.  It may appear Trevor has finally figured out how to play at this level on both sides of the ball.  His defense improving was best thing he did last year.  I was impressed with his change at the plate too.  However, I would not give him a long term deal at all.  Just keep doing arbitration until we know what we have in Sano and Trevor can be traded any time.  I also am worried last year was more of a fluke than the norm for him.  Also, since it took until he was 28 to get to starter value, I bet he regresses very quickly and really only has 2 more years of starter value left in him.

[Halsey Hall]

The luckiest man in the world would jump at this and continue to count his blessings.  The front office wouldn't even give it a second thought, and never make an offer like this.  If anything, trade him. 

[Badsmerf]

Halsey your hatred is baffling. I say no only because some things need to play out in 2015 before committing to Plouffe at 3b. Sure, you could move him or Sano to the of, but you'd be losing value. They could bring more in a trade.

 

I'm not really worried about Plouffe into his 30's. His game isn't about speed, and that is what goes first. He has an athletic build and should retain bat speed and quickness. Let 2015 play out a little. He could start the season like 2014 and just keep hitting.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

When I look at Trevor I see Cuddyer.  Long-term I think Trevor plays LF and Sano 3B.  Will this be 2015 second half?? 2016??  I don't know.  Yes, I think Trevor can be a Twins LF for next 5 years. 

 

But I am inclined to let this play out for a year and see where Trevor and Sano are.  (More importantly, Rosario who needs to prove that the AFL season was not a fluke.)

[Thrylos]

No way.  Horrible inconsistency.  Glove did get better last season, but just does not make enough contact.  Also, Plouffe is not as fit as he used to be when he first came up.   Pretty slow on the bases as well.  

 

Arguably Plouffe and Dozier were the two best players in the team without a long term contract.  The problem is that this is a 92 loss team.  Assuming that everyone is part of the solution will continue the problem... And the problem was not the scrubs on the bench, but the everyday players. 

[ashbury]

Also, Plouffe is not as fit as he used to be when he first came up.   Pretty slow on the bases as well.  

Unless I'm misremembering, Jamey Carroll pinch-ran for him once in the late innings, and not in an obvious injury situation.  That's all I need to know about his baserunning.  Jamey.  39 Years Old.  Carroll.

 

While a team-friendly contract can be a trade inducement, I'm not really keen on giving an average long-term contract to someone who may soon be trade bait.  I don't think Plouffe is as much of an asset at third as Dozier is at second.  Given the specific proposal Seth offered, I'd keep it year to year with him, while perhaps being a little more friendly/flexible in the arb negotiation than is absolutely necessary.  As others have said, front load it a little more, so that when trade time came the remaining contract was more of a bargain, and maybe my thinking would change.

[goulik]

No, his greatest long term value is if Sano is 3B of the future and Plouffes tradability which is not enhanced by this contract. My hope is that he is a mid season trade July '15 to a contender and brings back a piece we need to make our '16 run for the pennant

[Thegrin]

I say no.  If Sano was not in the picture, I might say yes.  With so many unknown factors, I think it best to go from year to year.

[nicksaviking]

No way. That contract is unmovable if he performs at any level below what he was at in 2014, which really was just barely better than acceptable.

[TheLeviathan]

This thread reflects our reality the last four years: a guy plays competently and we fall all over ourselves to hand them millions for half a decade. Let's let the career play out a bit and assess his value when we aren't awful.

[old nurse]

This is where the analytics department comes into play. Is there going to be more of an improvement in his offense. If yes then sign

[Brandon]

I would probably wait one more season to see how he improves or maintains where he is now before signing long term.  I do think he is a likely building block if he can continue last season.  I also think your 4 year 36 million is a fair number.  Maybe a little high but not much.  How bout a 4 year 33 million with a 5th year option at 13 million or 1 million buyout. I'll suggest 5, 7, 9, and 11 million with the option/buyout.  This way he can be signing a potentially team friendly deal and getting security and increases the likelihood of the Twins not taking a loss on this contract.

[ashbury]

This is where the analytics department comes into play. Is there going to be more of an improvement in his offense. If yes then sign

I'd go along with this (as well as being surprised if they actually reached that kind of conclusion on him).  Talent evaluation, in all its manifestations, is the single most important thing a front office must do.  You can be lousy at negotiating contracts, and so forth, but if you can get the evaluations basically all right, you'll be OK. Easier said than done, I know.

[Mike Sixel]

I am boggled at the conservatism in the replies here and Dozier.....you can't just stand still while everyone else moves, and expect to win. That said, no if you are the Twins, but only because they have Sano.

[GoGonzoJournal]

I wait to see what happens this season. Plouffe has had his share of injury issues, and with Sano and Rosario coming up by 2016, I don't want somebody on the left side of the field coming off injury or a regression with 3 years left on a deal and no trade value. I'd pay his arbitration and move him to LF next season if Sano looks ready or trade him by the deadline if both Rosario and Sano are ready. The longer he sticks at third the more value he'll have.

[Zephrin]

I essentially just said this same thing in the Dozier discussion.  Plouffe is 28.  He is supposed to be having his best seasons around age 27.  Why lock in a rate when he is more likely to decline than improve at this stage of his career?  Let's see how things play out with the prospects. 

 

Personally, I think if the Twins are still comitted to Plouffe in 18 months, some things went wrong. 

[TheLeviathan]

I am boggled at the conservatism in the replies here and Dozier.....you can't just stand still while everyone else moves, and expect to win. That said, no if you are the Twins, but only because they have Sano.

Extending your relationship with Plouffe by a year doesn't change your standing in any way. You MIGHT save a little bit of money at the risk of feeling it's wasted at some later date. Are we so far removed from Blackburn or Joe Mays that we think these sorts of moves have no downside?

 

I liked it with Span and even with Perkins, but it's not always a good idea.

[Steven Buhr]

I do not believe you make that kind of long term deal with any player at a position you feel you have a better replacement for who is expected to arrive within a year.

 

Plouffe looks like a good ballplayer, but Miguel Sano is Miguel Sano. You're expecting him to be a dominant hitter and play 3B for years to come AND you expect him to be ready in a year or less. In those circumstances, I just don't think you give the incumbent a 4-5 year contract. It's simply not necessary to take that kind of financial risk.

 

Dozier was a slightly different circumstance. The Twins MIGHT have a replacement ready for Dozier in 2-3 years and even so, the prospects moving up may or may not be any better than Dozier. An extension in that circumstance makes more sense than for Plouffe, with Sano knocking on the door.

Edited November 28, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[Seth Stohs]

I essentially just said this same thing in the Dozier discussion.  Plouffe is 28.  He is supposed to be having his best seasons around age 27.  Why lock in a rate when he is more likely to decline than improve at this stage of his career? 

 

 

This is my general thought on Free Agent signings when they are over 31... those contracts are typically on teh downside of their career at a pay rate for what they were capable of before they turned 31. The play lasts many times until about 33 which is why I do like the years that I have for both Plouffe and Dozier. 

[tobi0040]

I would want to see another 3 months for dozier. I just can't get there with plouffe. To sd's point, if things go well he is replaced at 3b. Then maybe he can play lf. Maybe he can't. His value would fall for sure

 

The real downside is you have 40 million locked up in the second best 3b on your team. If his consistency falters again you are stuck.

[nater79a]

No, his greatest long term value is if Sano is 3B of the future and Plouffes tradability which is not enhanced by this contract. My hope is that he is a mid season trade July '15 to a contender and brings back a piece we need to make our '16 run for the pennant

 

I agree. Plouffe is an asset that can be used as a trade chip for pitching. I would prefer we package him this offseason but I don't think the Twins are planning on going that direction. Now, at the July 31st trade deadline, that's a different story.

 

Maybe I have more faith than most in Sano coming up early in the '15 season and working out just fine at 3B. In any event, I think Trevor's days at 3B are numbered.

 

So, I would say "no" to the extension.

[DuluthFan]

Once again this is a definite NO! Plouffe is under team control for 3 more years. He cannot go anywhere. There is no reason to extend him for this amount for this many years. There are many reasons not to do a long term deal at this time.

 

A year to year contract approach for Plouffe is the smart move for the Twins right now. While he is coming off his best season, he needs to put together back to back good years to earn a multi-year deal. In case you have forgotten, arbitration favors the team in cases like Plouffe's. He seems to be a good but not great player with some injury history, who may improve or regress in future years. If he improves, yes he will be paid more for it the next season, but if he regresses, the team has the advantage. The Twins do not have to pay him the big bucks until he shows it on the field. He will get what similar players of his ability and service time gets. If he puts up monster numbers, sure the Twins will pay for it later, but at that point it will be worth it.

 

A player with arbitration years remaining has more trade value than a player signed to a contract that may be considered bad in a year or two. If the receiving team wants to pay him long term that is up to them, why make a team take a contract as well?

 

Signing Plouffe long term with the intention of moving him to the outfield when Sano comes up will hurt his trade value. He has put in several years of play at 3B now. He hasn't played in the outfield and has not been projected to be a good outfielder. His trade value is based on his play at 3B, if he is moved to the outfield and struggles it will only hurt his trade value.

 

If in the next three seasons, Plouffe's performance drops off a cliff, the Twins will have to pay off the remaining years of his contract, whereas if he was still year to year under arbitration he could be cut with no money owed.

 

Committing money to Plouffe now for the next several years with Sano almost ready to replace him would be foolish financially. In 2016 Sano will be making the ML minimum salary $500K with Plouffe projected to be around $10 million. That extra money that was committed to Plouffe could be used to sign a pitcher or another free agent.

 

Finally, this is a four-time 90 loss team. No one has earned a multi year deal. There needs to be flexiblility to make improvements in the roster. Committing several years to a player from a last place team while not leaving open the possibility to upgrade that position is bad management. If an opportunity arises to acquire a better player, there shouldn't be a obstacle to making space for him on the roster. This applies budget wise as well.

[Bark's Lounge]

It's no secret I am a big Plouffe backer and I have doubts about Sano as a third baseman. Will he play a poor 3B for a couple of years, and move to a different position, or never play 3B at all? I definitely could be wrong, and I certainly have been wrong my share of times, but I have been right a fair amount in my life travels.

 

Saying this, I would not give Plouffe an extension this off season. I need to see another campaign of him playing well at the hot corner and building off of what he did in the 2014 season. I believe in the guy, but seeing is believing and if he has another good or maybe even very good season, I would try to get a deal done -  and a bonus to that, is we get to see where Sano's progression is as a third baseman and to overall see where he stands developmental wise and where his likely destination is on the field in 2015.

 

All I know is that Plouffe is not an Outfielder and holding on to that hope is fruitless. The Twins said that a few years ago, not me, and I am buying into that.

 

There are so many questions about Sano's destination as a fielder and Plouffe really had a good year in 2014. Plouffe appeared to be more confident and his defense improved leaps and bounds.

 

Sano will definitely be a Power Hitting presence in the Twins line-up in the not so distant future, but he is still valuable as corner outfielder rather than 3B if Plouffe proves he is the real deal... power is at a premium these days, actually Plouffe could be a 20+ HR hitter... let's see how next season pans out.

 

Oh yeh, and besides that a Happy Thanksgiving to all of you.

Edited November 28, 2014 by Bark's Lounge

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think Plouffe says yes to that. I think the Twins would say maybe to that.

 

Nice cost certainty for Plouffe, and some security.

 

The Twins like it because ... They get a fixture at third base?

 

It's already been mentioned multiple times, but that Sano fellow seems poised to play in the majors in the not -too-distant future. Maybe he takes over at third. Maybe Sano gets relocated to 1B, or RF or LF... but he's probably going to be given every opportunity to stick at the hot corner.

 

It's easy to say now that the Twins won't need Plouffe in 4-5 seasons. If I were the Twins, I wouldn't be in a hurry to extend his contract - he's a valuable piece, but he's still under team control. I'm less certain that Plouffe would get arbitration raises as high as Dozier will, so I lean towards an extension for Dozier more so than for Plouffe.

 

Even though it's easy to say, it's not a certainty that Sano will stick at 3B and thrive there. The upside is that Plouffe is a solid piece that won't break the bank. By the time this hypothetical extension is over, Plouffe should still be producing at an acceptable level.

 

To me, the Dozier extension was a yes-yes win-win. Plouffe is a bit trickier to judge.