Molitor Pushing Hunter Reunion

[Parker Hageman]

Ken Rosenthal has a quote from Hunter on this situation:

 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/537268994261397504

 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/537269000745799681

 

Anyone want to take a guess if the Twins are considered his "heart" or his "desires"?

[Steven Buhr]

Saw that. Kind of the typical, head-scratching, Hunter quote. For most people, our "desires" stem from our heart and if there's a conflict, it's between those desires of the heart and what we may know to be the smarter choice.

 

I'd guess, in this case, Hunter is playing up the conflict between playing in Minnesota for less money and less shot at a ring vs playing for a contender and probably making a buck or two more. If that's the case, there's little in his history that would indicate a return to Minnesota is likely (and I'm more than OK with that).

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm hoping his heart is saying "Pine Bluff, AK" and his desires are saying "ice cream".

[tobi0040]

Saw that. Kind of the typical, head-scratching, Hunter quote. For most people, our "desires" stem from our heart and if there's a conflict, it's between those desires of the heart and what we may know to be the smarter choice.

 

I'd guess, in this case, Hunter is playing up the conflict between playing in Minnesota for less money and less shot at a ring vs playing for a contender and probably making a buck or two more. If that's the case, there's little in his history that would indicate a return to Minnesota is likely (and I'm more than OK with that).

 

Come on desire, come on desire.

[Linus]

Rasmus is the only free agent signing that makes this year and in the future. Buying his 28-30 year old seasons makes a lot more sense than signing a decline phase player on a one year deal. 

 

The best case for Rasmus is that he is a valuable regular for three years. The worst case is they are stuck with a contract paying a platoon player (who can play all three OF positions) too much money.

 

The best case for the others is a hope of a half season approaching career norms and a trade for a hard throwing 24 year old reliever in July or August. Worst Case - a more expensive Jason Kubel.

 

Free agency isn't the only way to add players. Teams are allowed to make trades and the Twins have prospects to trade. If they can't get Rasmus, they need to look to make a trade. If they can't find a good trade, then give Schafer two months and be ready to bring up Rosario, Buxton or Sano (Plouffe to LF) on June 1. All of these scenarios are attempts at building long term. Meanwhile, they should also be adding mid 20s minor league free agents or DFAs in hopes of finding upside.

Completely agree.  Another reason why Rasmus is basically the only good fit is his ability to play center.  If Santana is truly playing short, they have to bring someone in that can play center or risk another Hicks disaster.  Rasmus can slide over to left when Buxton arrives next year.  Or, better yet, sign him to a one year contract and let the 2016 outfield consist of young guys who are finally ready.

[Linus]

Ken Rosenthal has a quote from Hunter on this situation:

 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/537268994261397504

 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/537269000745799681

 

Anyone want to take a guess if the Twins are considered his "heart" or his "desires"?

I'm in the camp of "don't worry about what Torii is saying".  He was one of my favorite Twins but he just kind of rambles and says lots of stuff that really doesn't make sense.  After all this time, I just can't see Torii coming back here because its "home"; he's just trying to answer a question in a way that doesn't disrespect the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

Here I always thought it was the heart that did the desiring.  Either poets througout time have gotten it wrong or Torii's having a heart attack.

 

He's pushing the high risk age group for the later option.

[tobi0040]

Here I always thought it was the heart that did the desiring.  Either poets througout time have gotten it wrong or Torii's having a heart attack.

 

He's pushing the high risk age group for the later option.

 

He allowed almost 3 x the runs Arcia did, per UZR.  The only question is why.

[nicksaviking]

He allowed almost 3 x the runs Arcia did, per UZR.  The only question is why.

 

Maybe because if a ball gets by you in RF at Comerica the batter can run a long way but if the ball gets by you in RF at TF you're only two steps from the wall anyway.

[tobi0040]

Maybe because if a ball gets by you in RF at Comerica the batter can run a long way but if the ball gets by you in RF at TF you're only two steps from the wall anyway.

 

Maybe.  I was talking about this with a friend.  We were both a little dumbfounded at Torii's defensive numbers. We remember the gold glove guy.  

 

But then we concluded he was almost 32 when he left here and he has been gone 7 full seasons.  According to dWAR he was already slipping.  He went from about +2 to .2 from ages 28 to 31.  And he never really posted the type of numbers of a guy like Carlos Gomez.  So he was probably a tad over-rated to begin with.  Gomez had one year at 4.6.   Heyward was a 2.8 last year.  Hunter never got above a 2.

[nicksaviking]

Well I'm not a big believer in defensive metrics, but almost certainly Hunter's decline is due to a loss of range.  The only reason I'd prefer not to sign Hunter is because I want to keep the roster young.  Torii's lack of range in Target Field's tiny RF is going to be very minimized.  Arcia was bad because he took bad angles and played the wall poorly, those are probably things Hunter would not have such a problem with.

[tobi0040]

Well I'm not a big believer in defensive metrics, but almost certainly Hunter's decline is due to a loss of range.  The only reason I'd prefer not to sign Hunter is because I want to keep the roster young.  Torii's lack of range in Target Field's tiny RF is going to be very minimized.  Arcia was bad because he took bad angles and played the wall poorly, those are probably things Hunter would not have such a problem with.

 

I think defensive metrics are an unknown yet as well.  But I think they point guys in the right direction. I can see both Arcia and Hunter as negatives defensively.  And we can maybe have one, but not two of them.  Especially with a potential question mark in CF as well.  I think they give Hicks another shot, but he was not good either.

 

TF would be nice for Torii, but we play 81 on the road as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

I find it odd people trust the eyeball test....but not defensive metrics, which are just the adding up of eyeball tests.....but there is a thread for that over in "more baseball"......but since people are saying it here, I'll just wonder why......

 

He's 39. People get old, and less athletic. I am boggled that some people can't just accept that Hunter could be bad now in the field. Heck, the eyeball test on Fangraphs where they have fans rate players.....that test hates Hunter as much or more than the "stats".

[Brandon]

I still think Hunter's an upgrade over Parmelee, Colabello, and Nunez and likely Schaefer and if Hunter signs its only for a year.  I don't see the down side.  Plus he will help improve our offense.  I do see missed opportunity as there are now numerous OF available for trade depending on what it costs to get he player.  How much of an upgrade is Cespedes over Hunter?  They are both similar offensive players and how much of a difference is Cespedes improved defense worth over the prospects we would have to give up to get him?  If we were contending next year I would say trade for Cespedes and spend prospects and acquire pitching too. 

 

Note: I am ok with trading a few prospects for a player but not a lot of prospects for several players to contend.  but in this case, signing Hunter makes sense for 1 year and signing Cespedes as a free agent next offseason makes more sense.  I also think trading Deunsing and Oliveros to Houston for Fowler makes sense too.

[Brandon]

I also wanted to post this interesting thought.

 

283 .369 .448 .817

286 .319 .446 .765

 

One of these lines is Torii Hunter and the other is for a player who is injury prone, is not a good fielder and will probably play LF next season and just signed a 4 year 88 million contract Hanley Ramirez. If just a few walks makes that much of a difference I'll gladly take Hunter for around 10 million next season.

[tobi0040]

I also wanted to post this interesting thought.

 

283 .369 .448 .817

286 .319 .446 .765

 

One of these lines is Torii Hunter and the other is for a player who is injury prone, is not a good fielder and will probably play LF next season and just signed a 4 year 88 million contract Hanley Ramirez. If just a few walks makes that much of a difference I'll gladly take Hunter for around 10 million next season.

 

I am not saying the Ramirez contract will be a good one. 

 

But you could use a few more data points.  Ramirez is 30 and has a career OPS of .874. His OPS two years ago was 1.040.  Hunter will be 40 next season and has a career .799 OPS.

[nicksaviking]

I find it odd people trust the eyeball test....but not defensive metrics, which are just the adding up of eyeball tests.....but there is a thread for that over in "more baseball"......but since people are saying it here, I'll just wonder why......

 

He's 39. People get old, and less athletic. I am boggled that some people can't just accept that Hunter could be bad now in the field. Heck, the eyeball test on Fangraphs where they have fans rate players.....that test hates Hunter as much or more than the "stats".

 

I don't think Hunter is very good defensively any more.  My point is simply that it doesn't take a good defensive player to man RF at Target Field, it's smaller than my backyard.  All it takes is someone who can learn how the ball plays off the wall and someone who doesn't take awful angles on the ball.  Someone who can manage a Parmelee level of competence by not regularly falling on their face is more than enough.

[Steven Buhr]

I don't think Hunter is very good defensively any more.  My point is simply that it doesn't take a good defensive player to man RF at Target Field, it's smaller than my backyard.  All it takes is someone who can learn how the ball plays off the wall and someone who doesn't take awful angles on the ball.  Someone who can manage a Parmelee level of competence by not regularly falling on their face is more than enough.

I might shrug and nod in at least partial agreement with this if the Twins had above average outfielders in both of the other two OF spots, but they don't.

 

Target Field may be set up in a way that you can get by with moderate OF ability in RF if you have a couple guys who can cover ground in CF and LF. But the idea, to me, of the offseason is to improve as much as possible in areas that proved to be weaknesses the prior year and OF defense certainly begs to be improved upon. Even if he can patrol RF at Target Field without looking like a fool, that is not a significant improvement likely to shave much off of pitchers' ERAs.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Hunter is very good defensively any more.  My point is simply that it doesn't take a good defensive player to man RF at Target Field, it's smaller than my backyard.  All it takes is someone who can learn how the ball plays off the wall and someone who doesn't take awful angles on the ball.  Someone who can manage a Parmelee level of competence by not regularly falling on their face is more than enough.

 

We probably won't agree on that. Lack of range matters all over the field.......imo.

[TheLeviathan]

I might shrug and nod in at least partial agreement with this if the Twins had above average outfielders in both of the other two OF spots, but they don't.

 

Target Field may be set up in a way that you can get by with moderate OF ability in RF if you have a couple guys who can cover ground in CF and LF. But the idea, to me, of the offseason is to improve as much as possible in areas that proved to be weaknesses the prior year and OF defense certainly begs to be improved upon. Even if he can patrol RF at Target Field without looking like a fool, that is not a significant improvement likely to shave much off of pitchers' ERAs.

 

To add to this, we have several key young pitchers set to debut or get significant time next year - an OF that can turn hits into outs is really going to be key to getting these careers off on the right foot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I also wanted to post this interesting thought.

 

283 .369 .448 .817

286 .319 .446 .765

 

One of these lines is Torii Hunter and the other is for a player who is injury prone, is not a good fielder and will probably play LF next season and just signed a 4 year 88 million contract Hanley Ramirez. If just a few walks makes that much of a difference I'll gladly take Hunter for around 10 million next season.

Considering park factors, Ramirez's line was a 132 OPS+, versus Hunter's 111.  (Both, coincidentally, matching their career OPS+ figures)  According to B-Ref, Ramirez was worth about 1.5 more wins on offense alone.

 

Also, at B-Ref, Ramirez was -9 runs from defense at SS, versus Hunter's -18 in RF.  Add in the positional adjustment gap (+11 for Ramirez), and that's almost a 2 whole win advantage on defense too.

 

3.5 WAR total vs 0.4.  The difference was even greater in 2013.

 

Ramirez and his contract may not be good for the 2015 Twins, but that says nothing about Hunter's worth as an addition

[REPETE]

It seems most on this thread are dead-set against a Hunter reunion. If used properly, this could be a great signing. I keep going back to TK (whom I still believe to be one of the greatest managers ever) talking about getting Dan Gladden, stating "you need guys like this on your team." I believe he was referring to the "fire in the belly", which Hunter would definitely bring. We want to end the Country Club attitude that seems to have set in, and hearing it from a guy like Hunter would go a long way. It's a short term signing, doesn't block any young kids, and worst case, we get a competent part time OF/DH/PH. Make him a low-ball offer, and hope he takes it!

[nicksaviking]

We probably won't agree on that. Lack of range matters all over the field.......imo.

 

Range helps, but if you're not going to take advantage of your own ballpark, I don't know why they don't just build them all the same.  The difference between Jason Heyword and Adam Dunn is much more significant in Comercia Park than it is in Target Field, and we're not talking about a gulf that large. On a scale of 1-10 we're probably talking about the difference between getting 5 defender or a 3.

 

Go ahead and fix the OF, but RF defense should not be a high money priority, don't blow you free agent money for defensive upgrades there, there are other things that need to be shored up, like getting pitchers that would allow those outfielders to keep their hands on their knees most of the game.  I'm not willing to sacrafice offense for a guy who might be able to track down one extra ball every other week.  Now if the offense is going to be somwwhat close, well the tie goes to the defender.

 

Edit: I realize I am minimizing defensive impact, but I think we are really trying to overcompensate for the poor defense last year.  We're talking about various shades of average to below average here after all. Most winning teams can get away with a RF who simply doesn't look foolish, getting there would make a noticable difference and just about any option will accomplish that.

[jorgenswest]

I don't disagree that the a Twins can put a guy in RF with limited range as long as the other two guys have good range. They already have a good limited range candidate in house with Arcia in RF. They don't need two RFs. They need a LF with range.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't disagree that the a Twins can put a guy in RF with limited range as long as the other two guys have good range. They already have a good limited range candidate in house with Arcia in RF. They don't need two RFs. They need a LF with range.

 

This....unless you are dealing Arcia, or moving him to DH.....no need for another RF at this point that hits but can't field.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It seems most on this thread are dead-set against a Hunter reunion. If used properly, this could be a great signing. I keep going back to TK (whom I still believe to be one of the greatest managers ever) talking about getting Dan Gladden, stating "you need guys like this on your team." I believe he was referring to the "fire in the belly", which Hunter would definitely bring. We want to end the Country Club attitude that seems to have set in, and hearing it from a guy like Hunter would go a long way. It's a short term signing, doesn't block any young kids, and worst case, we get a competent part time OF/DH/PH. Make him a low-ball offer, and hope he takes it!

 

I think a player with Dan Gladden's 1987-1991 skills would be a great addition in LF for the 2015 Twins. He was a decent fielder then and while he didn't have a bat anywhere close to his teammates like Bruno and Kirby, he wasn't a liability at the plate. 25 steals a year, didn't get caught too much... That's the kind of player the Twins should be trying to acquire. Maybe Jordan Schafer is already that guy... I dunno.

 

I think Torii could still hit just fine (and be an upgrade in that department for the Twins), but defensively he just doesn't have it anymore and honestly that's more important for the Twins right now. They have hitters throughout the lineup, theyt really need defense and pitching.

 

Torii brings a lot to the table, and while I wouldn't be opposed to a reunion, I feel like there are still lots of options out there that would be better fits for the 2015 and beyond Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

It seems most on this thread are dead-set against a Hunter reunion. If used properly, this could be a great signing. I keep going back to TK (whom I still believe to be one of the greatest managers ever) talking about getting Dan Gladden, stating "you need guys like this on your team." I believe he was referring to the "fire in the belly", which Hunter would definitely bring. We want to end the Country Club attitude that seems to have set in, and hearing it from a guy like Hunter would go a long way. It's a short term signing, doesn't block any young kids, and worst case, we get a competent part time OF/DH/PH. Make him a low-ball offer, and hope he takes it!

 

It blocks you from signing an actual OF, or trying Hicks there, or Rosario, or Schaefer.. And, Gladden worked because he could actually field. He was not a DH playing in the field.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think Hunter is very good defensively any more.  My point is simply that it doesn't take a good defensive player to man RF at Target Field, it's smaller than my backyard.  All it takes is someone who can learn how the ball plays off the wall and someone who doesn't take awful angles on the ball.  Someone who can manage a Parmelee level of competence by not regularly falling on their face is more than enough.

Is Arcia moving to LF in this deal? Me thinks Hunter will be playing in LF, not RF.

[Brandon]

If we sign Hunter we still have Schaefer as a late innings replacement.  I don't think Hunter will be as bad as you think in the OF.  He is still an above average hitter and he can move to DH if Vargas needs to go back to the minors.  Yes there are other options. and I am fine with Hunter.  I am more concerned with who our 4th starter is going to be next season. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Hunter doesn't have to be as bad as we think to be as bad as he is. He's a DH at this point and a liability everywhere else on the field. It's just the reality of the situation - he's not a ML-level defensive outfielder anymore. Doesn't mean he's a bad player or a bad person, he just shouldn't be a primary target for a team that needs better OF defense.

I'd rather have Rosario/Hicks/Schafer/Arcia in the outfield than play another guy on the wrong side of 35 or a player that should only play 1B or DH (like Parmelee or Colabello).