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Article: Who Should the Twins Add to their 40-Man?


Seth Stohs

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The teams play their cards close. Wait until the last minute to throw bodies out there, hoping to sneak some back onto minor league rosters (Colabello, for example) and you can't drop a newcomer from the 40-man, I believe, until after spring training.

 

You have to ask, always, will a player be grabbed and held on a team's 40-man roster, will that player accept a minor league assignment, or will the resign with you as a team with a promise for a spring training invite.

 

You need to have players to move during the free agent period, and heaven forbid that you roster is so solid that you end spring training with Matt Guerrier, Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett all needing roster spots and you don't have bodies to send down, release or whatever. 

 

You hate to see non-tenders (Duensing and Swarzak, maybe) as you wish the Twins were smart enough to get some value for them rather than jsut cut them loose, but the value of those players is also the fact that teams think the Twins may non-tender them. You tremble when spring training ends and the Twins lose guys like Pat Neshek, Alex Pressly, Mike Restovich because they needed a 40-man roster spot for someone (especially in hindsight) who didn't produce in the end. Not that the losses, down-the-road, are anything more than heartfelt.

 

The Rule 5 got blown out of proportion, I think. If you don't have enough players of your own to protect, why are you going after another organization's 41st, or 61st or 71st player (with promise). There are so many players out there...look at the free agents, look at the minor league free agents, looks at teams that are drafting better and better players who last more than a short season for a look (what IS the average life of a prospect these days 3-4 years instead of 1-2 due to disabled list games and extended spring trainings) not to mention the amount of good, solid players in the numerous struggling for attendance independent leagues.

 

Theilbar or Thompson or Darnell. One young, one could be a sleeper, one ahs been dependable and is still cheap.

 

Fryer or Herrmann, neither necessary but are they better than nothing? Remember, Rene Rivera was once a Twin and look what he did last year. You grabbed a Henry Blanco who shined when Mauer went down. You find a Corky Miller and he stays in baseball for 80 years.

 

But once you add a man to the 40-man, he stays. He has to go through waivers, which is almost worse than Rule 5, and can be snatched by a team, waived out by them and not claimed, and kept free-of-charge by that organization.

 

So you have to believe a 40-man add will come to the majors. And believe me, when looking back at the Twins, so many have not! 

 

Go look at the roster at www.twinscards.com, the minor league section, and see who was on the 40-man each season and didn't play in the majors that season. Start in 1961 and go forwards.

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I'd clear the roster a bit:  Thompson, Fryer, Colabello, Herrmann gives them 8 spots.   Then I would thing strategically about arbitration eligibles and STLHPs (Soft Tossing)  Milone, Darnell, Gilmartin.  Pick one.  That makes 9 spots. Nunez, Schafer, Parmelee Do they belong to a contending team?  Maybe one as the last guy at the end of the bench.   Pick one.  11 spots.  Think hard about the pen. Archer, Pressly, Swrzak, Oliveros or Fien? Pick two.  14 Spots.  Duensing or Thielbar, pick one. 15 spots.  That is your core.

 

Add Sano, Rosario & Meyer.  12 spots. Rethink who you picked earlier and add 2 names.  10 spots open.   About the right amount for a team that finished 99+96+96+92 to have to work itself into a competitive team.

 

If the 40 man roster is about the same as 2014, the results will be similar.  And this is not too good.  I think a cleanup is needed...

 

One of the major frustrations I have about this front office is that it approaches the off-season the same way every season, regardless winning 63 or 93 games the previous season.   Even keel is ok in smooth water,during a storm even keel is disastrous

Edited by Thrylos
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Bernier wasn't added to the 40 Man, was he? I read that his deal was a minor-league deal, but the Rochester article says he "still has options remaining" - I'm guessing those are personal options as opposed to contractual options?

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/extra-bases/2014/11/19/red-wings-star-doug-bernier-re-signs-with-twins/19284749/

Bernier says he loves Rochester, but his mindset will be making the Twins when he heads to spring training. He played the final four weeks of the season in Minnesota this past September.

"I feel I have an opportunity to play in the big leagues with the Twins," he said. "I really enjoyed working with (new Twins manager) Paul Molitor and (former Wings manager and new Twins third base coach) Gene Glynn in the past, and I'm looking forward to working with them this year."

Bernier still has options remaining. While he says he would "much rather be in the big leagues," he has enjoyed his time in Rochester.

 

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Bernier wasn't added to the 40 Man, was he? I read that his deal was a minor-league deal, but the Rochester article says he "still has options remaining" - I'm guessing those are personal options as opposed to contractual options?

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/extra-bases/2014/11/19/red-wings-star-doug-bernier-re-signs-with-twins/19284749/

I'll guess the article was written by someone not quite clear on the role of options and the 40-man roster.

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I'd trade or non-tender Swarzak. Theilbar wasn't bad in his role and I'd likely keep him around.

 

T-Bar's FB velocity dropped close to 89MPH, thus, he relied more heavily on his so-so slider, which became a net Pitch F/X minus pitch for him in 2014.  And most importantly, he lost his split advantage against LH batters-  LHB OPS .760 --> RHB .713.  These developments helped lead to these significant drop-offs from 2013, with about the same number of IP:

 

2013  ERA 1.70 SIERA 3.64 K% 22.8% H/9 4.70 BA .153 OPS .530  LD% 19.0%

2014  ERA  3.40 SIERA 4.06 K% 16.0% H/9 9.54 BA .270 OPS .734 LD% 26.4% 

 

Neither in 2013 or 2014 did the Twins see fit to put Thielbar into many high-leverage situations, only a little over 10% of all innings pitched.  There have to be other options to consider

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Seeing the Zack Duke (3 year, $15 million) contract, the Twins should strongly consider Gilmartin, Wheeler and Ryan O'Rourke.

Zach Duke just posted an 11.4 K/9 in MLB.  Wheeler has never pitched out of the pen as a pro, Gilmartin has one relief appearance (a rehab one in rookie ball).  O'Rourke is an interesting name, but he's almost 27 years old with 1 inning of AAA ball to his credit.

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