Article: Who Should the Twins Add to their 40-Man?

[Seth Stohs]

Might as well kill the lead right here in the first paragraph. When the Twins announce the players that they are adding to their 40-man roster on (or before) Thursday, we will see the names Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. Will the Twins choose to add any more than those three? We’ll find out then, but for a look at who all is eligible, keep reading.Each year at this time, major league teams need to add players to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft at the winter meetings in early December. A year ago, the Twins added Kennys Vargas, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Logan Darnell.

 

Who is eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft this year? Players who signed when they were less than 19-years-old in 2010 and players who were 19 or older when they signed in 2011. Of course, if they’re on the 40-man roster, they can’t be picked.

 

The Givens

 

As mentioned in the header, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Alex Meyer will all be added. Unless something completely unexpected happens in the next couple of days, their odds of being added to the 40-man roster are 100%

 

Miguel Sano was actually signed in 2009, but since he signed in October, after the season ended, he was not eligible a year ago. He’s an elite prospect. There is no question. He will be protected.

 

Eddie Rosario had a difficult 2014 season, much of his own doing. Even if he had not had a spectacular Arizona Fall League, he would have been a given to add.

 

Finally, Alex Meyer may wind up being a bullpen arm, but the fact that he could become an ace if all goes well means that he also is going to be added to the roster.

 

The Possibles

 

There are several other options to be added. We went into much more detail in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, but here are some of the names that could be considered.

 

Sean Gilmartin – I would put the odds quite high, maybe 75%, that he is added to the 40-man roster this week. Acquired from the Braves organization in the Ryan Doumit trade, the lefty put up solid numbers between New Britain and Rochester. The former first-round draft pick could be a back-of-the-rotation starter or a lefty reliever.

 

Levi Michael – The Twins top pick in the 2011 draft has been hurt pretty much his whole career. In 2014, he returned to Ft. Myers where he played well for six weeks before fouling a ball off his foot and missing almost two months. He returned and hit very well in 15 games in New Britain. Maybe his ceiling is that of a utility infielder. Those are the types that get selected in the Rule 5. I’ll put his odds at about 50/50.

 

Jason Wheeler – Another lefty, this 23-year-old was the Twins eighth round pick in 2011 out of Loyola Marymount. At 6-8 and about 250 pounds, Wheeler does not throw real hard, though he can hit 94 at times. However, he’s got good control of three pitches. He made starts at three different levels in 2014, including a start in Rochester. I’d put his odds at about 45%

 

Jason Adam – The right-hander came to the Twins in the Josh Willingham deal in August. The Twins didn’t have much time to see him in the regular season so they sent him to the Arizona Fall League. He pitched to mixed results. The Twins want him to start, and he did reach AAA with the Royals as a 23-year-old. Might be worth a spot. I’ll put his odds at about 33%

 

Niko Goodrum – Twins second round pick in 2010 has terrific tools. He was moved to third base this year after being a very good shortstop in the lowest levels. He hasn’t been able to put up the numbers, and he will soon be 23, but there is no denying the athleticism and the tools I don’t think he would be selected though because I don’t think he has a skill set that would stick in the majors. I’d put his odds at about 25%

 

(Other first-year Rule 5 eligibles: Jose Abreu, Madison Boer, Tyler Grimes, Steven Gruver, David Hurlbut, Cole Johnson, Tyler Jones, Matt Koch, Brett Lee, Chris Mazza, Aderlin Mejia, Josue Montanez, Jeremias Pineda, Randy Rosario, Tim Shibuya, Jhon Silva, Matt Summers, Matt Tomshaw, Stephen Wickens, Corey Williams, JD Williams, Reyson Zoquiel.)

 

 

Second/Third Year Eligibles

 

There are several cases of players who go through the Rule 5 draft one year, make strides and then get added to the roster a year or two later. The following players have been eligible to be selected previously and could be again this year.

 

(Pat Dean, Dallas Gallant, Jonatan Hinojosa, DJ Johnson, Kyle Knudson, Mike Kvasnicka, Ryan O’Rourke, Michael Quesada, Alex Wimmers)

 

Of that list, the player who may have the best chance of being selected could be lefty Ryan O’Rourke. If you look at his overall numbers, they won’t stand out. However, when you look at what he did against left-handed hitters, it’s remarkable. In 2014, lefties hit just .103 off of him. He also had a 41:4 strikeout to walk rate against same-siders. He struggles against right-handers, but he could pitch in the big leagues now as a LOOGY.

 

Signed Minor League Free Agents

 

Since the World Series, the Minnesota Twins have signed many of their own six-year minor league free agents. If they sign others, those players also could be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

 

Two years ago, the Twins signed catcher Josmil Pinto instead of allowing him to become a six-year minor league free agent. Then in November they added him to the 40-man roster so he wasn’t exposed to the Rule 5.

 

A few years further back, the Twins signed a pitcher to a six-year minor league free agent contract who had just started throwing a knuckleball a year or so earlier. That player was RA Dickey who was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Mariners just weeks later.

 

(James Beresford, Mike Gonzales, Mark Hamburger, Nate Hanson, BJ Hermsen, Danny Ortiz, Jairo Rodriguez, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Adrian Salcedo, Tony Thomas)

 

On this list, there are a couple of intriguing names. Mark Hamburger had big league time with the Rangers, served a suspension, returned to the Twins and pitched well in a variety of roles with New Britain and Rochester in 2014. That versatility could be of value to a big league club looking for arms.

 

James Beresford just signed on to stay in the Twins organization. He has now succeeded at every level of the minor leagues. Though he played almost exclusively at second base in 2014, he can play three infield positions. A team interested in a utility infielder might be draft him.

 

SUMMARY

 

The Twins have 36 men on their 40-man roster right now. In other words, they can only add four more players unless they remove others from the roster. They could just add the three Givens and still make a Rule 5 pick.

 

What do you think? Which of these players would you want to add to the 40-man roster, and at the expense of who?

 

Click here to view the article

[DocBauer]

I'd add Gilmartin and Wheeler. Both left handed, have some stuff and track record, the possibility of helping in the next season or two...and...well...left handed.

 

I find Adam of interest, and I'd hate to trade Willingham for absolutely nothing, but I don't think at this point I'd protect him. I think he's too much of a mystery to do so, and I suspect he's too much of a mystery for anyone to take anyway.

 

Glad to see Michael finally showing a pulse last season. But the heartbeat is weak enough still that I doubt anyone will snag him. And if they did, Santana, Dozier, Escobar, Nunez, Beresford and soon Polanco should prevent us from missing him.

 

I'd hate to risk losing Goodrum, who I find very intriguing, and who I feel got a bit of the shaft with moving around so much last season, for various logical reasons. But I just don't think anyone is going to save a roster spot for him at this point.

[Rosterman]

Gilmartin would the closest, although he was mainly an AA pitcher last season. Michael is to unseasoned. Adams needs a year in the minors to adjust to being a starter. I am more worried about anyone the Twins MIGHT lose in the minor league portion. Will be interesting to see who they advance to the AA and AAA rosters. I'm happy to see Beresford give the Twins another chance. That he did means that he didn't find overwhelming requests for his services elsewhere at this time, a good omen.

 

In some ways the Rule 5 is diminishing each and every year, as more players become minor league free agents, or can be grabbed if they are dropped from a 40-man roster (would a team grab, at this point, Darnell or Kepler, for example). Finding that back-of-the-bullpen or end-of-the-bench spot is only necessary for rebuilding teams, or teams that have arrpetty darn solid starting nine and rotation.

[jokin]

Great in-depth analysis by Seth.  Interesting to note that this year's 3 automatic roster-adds are a whole degree of magnitude more talented and "automatic" than last year's 4 add-ons.  4 questionables in 2013 vs. 3 'no-question' this year.  The top talent is very close to breaking out.

 

I didn't like reading again that nagging undercurrent message about Meyer:

 

 

Finally, Alex Meyer may wind up being a bullpen arm, but the fact that he could become an ace if all goes well means that he is also going to be added to the roster.

 

Very troubling to see this lingering doubt yet again in print.  Is this opinion accelerating in baseball circles, is it coming mostly from the outside portentous "I told you so's" with ulterior motives, or, more disconcerting, from voices within the organization-

 

ie, based on Meyer's shoulder health, psychological make-up, or organizational frustration over lack of response to the Twins coaching regimen with respect to acceptable progress citerion for an SP?

[Otwins]

When I counted the roster they have 36 including Jared Burton and Kris Johnson. I would not include Aaron Thompson. Add Goodrum, Gilmartin and Wheeler and you still have room for a rule 5 guy.

[jokin]

When I counted the roster they have 36 including Jared Burton and Kris Johnson. I would not include Aaron Thompson. Add Goodrum, Gilmartin and Wheeler and you still have room for a rule 5 guy.

 

Kris Johnson was sold to Korea in October. Adding the three "guaranteeds" listed by Seth above will put the roster at 39.  They would still have to move at least 3 more for Goodrum, Gilmartin and Wheeler to be added and still leave a Rule 5 spot. 

 

You're right though, Thompson is a good candidate for removal, other possibilities are Achter, Darnell, Pryor, Fryer, Thielbar, Colabello (also a possible sale to Korea), Hermann, Parmelee (the guys in bold I suspect have the best chance of retention)- that's 9 guys right there.  Arb-eligible players total 7- the pitchers seem the most expendable- Duensing, Swarzak, Fien, Milone... with 3 position players, Plouffe, Nunez, Schafer, out of which Plouffe, Fien and Schafer seem, at this point with the current roster, as almost certainly vital for the Twins to retain. That still means there are 13 guys currently on the "potentially expendable list."  That's plenty of potential room for a Rule 5 pick-up spot, plus prospect additions, FA signings and trades.

Edited November 18, 2014 by jokin

[clutterheart]

Only the given guys. Wheeler & Gilmartin do not have the upside and wont be taken. Goodrum is too raw and won't be taken

[Lakeside]

Here's my take for what it's worh.  .4 open spots today plus they release Thompson and Collabello makes six open spots:

 

1)   Sano

2)  Meyer

3)  Rosario

4)  Gilmartin (everybody wants pitching in Rule 5. .can start or be a LH reliever in MLB)

5)  Michael or Goodrum (future utility player. . cannot afford to lose both)

6)  Hamburger (always have liked his versatility. . . possible replacement for Swarzak)

 

Long Shot--Chris Mazza--underestimated, but seeing him pitch, he has the abilty to be a 7th inning guy at  higher level at some point in time.

 

Possbility --  Ortiz makes 40 man over Herrman.  However, I beleive we are so weak at MLB outfielders that we have to keep Herrman and Parmelee until we see the plan.  .i.e. free agent, Rosario ready, etc??

 

Lose one of the following in the draft -- Boer, Wheeler, Adam, Beresford

[gbg]

We should definitely be adding Jose Abreu to our 40-man if we have the chance! Not even a question!!!

 

Oh, wait, not THAT Jose Abreu?

[Seth Stohs]

We should definitely be adding Jose Abreu to our 40-man if we have the chance! Not even a question!!!

 

Oh, wait, not THAT Jose Abreu?

 

Haha!! That's right. Not THAT Jose Abreu... But yes, that would be awesome!

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

 

First a question--shouldn't my AAP (Brett Lee) be on this list.

 

My two cents--I would add Gilmartin and Goodrum to the 40 man. I like Niko and think he is too valuable to risk. Gilmartin would definitely be picked in the rule 5. If space permits, I would add Michael, I don't think given his injury history he would be picked however.

[ericchri]

I'd be shocked if Gilmartin wasn't picked if he wasn't added.  It'd be so easy to slot him in as a lefty-reliever if nothing else to keep him on the team.  So the question is does he warrant that roster spot versus losing him?  He seems like he has some potential as a back-end starter, but I don't know if his upside is high enough for me to worry about it.  There've been worse guys taking up 40-man spots over these last few years, though.  I'd probably put him on this year.  Makes Duensing even more expendable as he starts getting a little more expensive for his fairly average production.

 

Wheeler seems a good candidate for the same reason.  Left-handed pitchers with some potential are the easiest to keep on the team in some relief capacity for the season so you don't have to send them back.

 

I can't see much chance of any of the others getting picked.  It's possible certainly, but Michael's been injured too often with no track record in the upper minors, Goodrum is too far away, Adam is a giant question mark who I can't see losing sleep over if somebody should happen to take him.

[nater79a]

I would try to find a way to protect Wheeler & Gilmartin. Wheeler could be a surprise this year at the big league level. Gilmartin could be the 2015 version of Pino/Johnson/Darnell - swing guy between Rochester and the Twins.

[nater79a]

Seth - does Alex Wimmers need to be added to your list of 2nd year guys?

[Seth Stohs]

First a question--shouldn't my AAP (Brett Lee) be on this list.

 

My two cents--I would add Gilmartin and Goodrum to the 40 man. I like Niko and think he is too valuable to risk. Gilmartin would definitely be picked in the rule 5. If space permits, I would add Michael, I don't think given his injury history he would be picked however.

 

Yes, Brett Lee should be on this list. He's eligible. And thank you, I have now added him.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth - does Alex Wimmers need to be added to your list of 2nd year guys?

 

Yes, he does... I had a big list and apparently forgot to type some of the names. Thank you!

[beckmt]

Expect the Twins will move a number of names off the 40 man and add more by Thursday,  Expect they will add Gilmarten, they should add Wimmers.  Goodrum and Michaels are much more troubling, but do not think they will lose them if not added.  Michael could be a reach by a team without a lot of talent in the upper reaches of there system.  Goodrum is just too far away.

[Seth Stohs]

Seeing the Zack Duke (3 year, $15 million) contract, the Twins should strongly consider Gilmartin, Wheeler and Ryan O'Rourke.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Seeing the Zack Duke (3 year, $15 million) contract, the Twins should strongly consider Gilmartin, Wheeler and Ryan O'Rourke.

 

Mischievous and deceitful. Chicanerous and deplorable

[nicksaviking]

Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Gilmartin, Michael, Wheeler and they'll surprise us with one, I'll say Tyler Jones.

 

Thompson, Fryer, Herrmann and Colabello lose their spots.

[Dman]

I am a big Wheeler fan.  When moving from high A to AA a pitchers ERA usually goes up pretty significantly.  Wheeler stuck around 2 something through all three levels I believe.  I think he has things figured out.  I would hate to lose him now.  Having said that he doesn't throw real hard and could be just another Darnell or Gilmartin it is hard to know but would like to see him for at least one more year.

 

Not a huge Gilmartin fan but I agree a team would likely take him if he was exposed.  He seems to run out of gas an give up big innings.  Not sure what the deal is but probably should give him another year to see if there is more there than meets the eye.  If nothing else you would think he could be trade bait or throw in material.

 

I think those are the only two other guys I would hang onto besides Sano, Rosario and Meyer.  Next year this list gets much harder.

[stringer bell]

Protect the pitchers along with the obvious Sano and Rosario.  Position players are very tough to keep if they're not playing and there is a 12-13 man pitching staff.  Stashing a pitching prospect in the bullpen (in long relief) is a much more viable plan (it worked for both Johan and Pressly).  I can't see a team keeping a Goodrum or Michael for a whole season. 

[Linus]

Colabello and Thompson lose their spots.  I would favor adding Gilmartin and Wheeler for all the reasons stated above.

 

No way Michael gets added (he's pretty much a bust IMO) and Goodrum is already 23 and still far away.

[ashbury]

Mischievous and deceitful. Chicanerous and deplorable

Wait, someone mentioned A-A-Ron Hicks?

[diehardtwinsfan]

The givens, Gilmartin, and Wheeler. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke made it, especially considering that I think Duensing is done with the org.

[jokin]

The givens, Gilmartin, and Wheeler. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke made it, especially considering that I think Duensing is done with the org.

 

If you think those 3 are going to be added, then besides Duensing (I agree, he's gone), Swarzak and perhaps Thielbar, are probably also on thin ice.

[Old Twins Cap]

Kind of odd to worry about the scraps of the Twins roster when it comes to the 40-man and Rule 5 draft.

 

People, relax.

 

We are one of the worst teams in baseball.  Our back end is not appreciated, and not going anywhere --  certainly not going to lift a team, especially one better than us, to a World Series or playoffs.

 

Our parking lot is full of cheap Mazdas and untested KIAs.

 

There are no Rumplestiltskins waiting for their moment in MLB.

 

The most important thing now is to purge.  Purge often, purge deep.

 

That is what a rebuilding team does.

[Seth Stohs]

If you think those 3 are going to be added, then besides Duensing (I agree, he's gone), Swarzak and perhaps Thielbar, are probably also on thin ice.

 

Why would Thielbar be on thin ice? All he's done is get the job done for the last two seasons. And, he's cheap for 2-3 more years. 

[jokin]

Kind of odd to worry about the scraps of the Twins roster when it comes to the 40-man and Rule 5 draft.

 

People, relax.

 

We are one of the worst teams in baseball.  Our back end is not appreciated, and not going anywhere --  certainly not going to lift a team, especially one better than us, to a World Series or playoffs.

 

Our parking lot is full of cheap Mazdas and untested KIAs.

 

There are no Rumplestiltskins waiting for their moment in MLB.

 

The most important thing now is to purge.  Purge often, purge deep.

 

That is what a rebuilding team does.

 

I think that's why some of us aren't relaxing, as Howard Sinker said a little over a year ago-  "there are at least two dozen guys on this roster that wouldn't be missed, they are mostly all below "below-replacement- level."

 

Purge now while the purging is good.

[jokin]

Why would Thielbar be on thin ice? All he's done is get the job done for the last two seasons. And, he's cheap for 2-3 more years. 

 

Better options?  His numbers all dropped dramatically year-over-year.  His innings were about the same while his ERA, WHIP, H/9, doubled or nearly doubled while his ERA+ and WAR halved or nearly halved.  His split advantage also evaporated-  .760 OPS vs LH/.713 OPS vs RH. And he's rarely used in high-leverage situations, 22 PAs in 2014.

 

As far as league average (LA) for RPs vs. Thielbar (CT), he doesn't fare very well there, either:

 

K/9- (LA) 8.46  (CT) 6.61

K%- (LA) 22.2% (CT) 17.0%

WHIP- (LA) 1.28  (CT) 1.41

 

He does have 2 options left, would he pass through waivers?  Probably a close call, depending on the timing.

Edited November 19, 2014 by jokin