Article: NoDak Twins Fan Offseason Blueprint

[Cody Christie]

The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook was released a few weeks ago and still available. We always encourage readers to develop their own blueprint for the Twins offseason. Today, Cody Christie shares his blueprint with us. We set up a special forum for Twins Daily readers to post their own blueprints here.There are plenty of ways to go about trying to fix the Twins team but some patience might be required as the club waits for some younger pieces to work their way through the minor leagues. The Twins Daily crew put out some solid information in the 2015 Offseason Handbook. One of the best parts to read about this document is the blueprint plans put together by the writers.

 

There are plenty of options for the Twins but here is how I would go about trying to fix the team. Some of these ideas will happen and some won't but that's what makes this fun.

 

Starting Line-Up

C- Kurt Suzuki- $6 million

1B- Joe Mauer- $23 million

2B- Brian Dozier- $1 million

3B- Trevor Plouffe- $5 million

SS- Danny Santana- $0.5 million

LF- Colby Rasmus- $12 million

CF- Aaron Hicks- $0.5 million

RF- Oswaldo Arcia- $0.5 million

DH- Kennys Vargas- $0.5 million

 

-------------------------------------------------

$49.0 million committed to nine hitters

 

Breakdown: Colby Rasmus is the only free agent acquisition that I have the Twins adding this off-season. He's young at only 28-years-old and he could regain some value by signing a one-year, $12 million deal. This would set him up to hit the free agent market again before his age 29 season. The Twins could use him in a corner outfield spot and have him be a center field fill-in. Aaron Hicks earns the Opening Day starting job for the third straight season. Hopefully Paul Molitor can get Hicks back on the right track to being an everyday player in Minnesota. If things go right, Miguel Sano could be up by the middle of the season but this could be a line-up that scores a decent number of runs after finishing fifth in the AL in runs scored a year ago.

 

Bench

C- Josmil Pinto- $0.5 million

IF- Eduardo Escobar- $2.0 million

1B/OF- Chris Colabello- $0.5 million

OF-Jordan Schafer- $1.5 million

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$4.5 million committed to four bench positions

 

Breakdown: Eduardo Escobar proved to be a very valuable asset but I believe his long-term role with the club will be as more of a utility infielder. Jordan Schafer will complement the other outfielders nicely. Josmil Pinto will get some opportunities to catch especially with how much Kurt Suzuki got beat-up last season. Chris Colabello will get one more opportunity to stick on the big league roster but he will be one of the last men to make the 25-man squad.

 

Starting Pitching

1. Phil Hughes- $8 million

2. Ricky Nolasco- $12 million

3. Kyle Gibson- $0.5 million

4. Alex Meyer- $0.5 million

5. Justin Masterson- $10 million

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$31.0 million committed to starting rotation

 

Breakdown: The top three spots in the rotation are likely locked in place. This leaves the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation up for grabs. I think the Twins will actually go with Trevor May in the number four spot but I would much rather throw Alex Meyer out there every fifth day. This would also give May the opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen which I think will be his eventual resting spot. Minnesota is going to spend some money on a free agent starter and I think Justin Masterson is the right guy. He's coming off a tough year but he could bounce back nicely in the friendly confines of Target Field. Fingers are crossed that he could be this year's version of Phil Hughes and a one-year, $10 million contract is easy enough to swallow for a team with some wiggle room.

 

Bullpen

Righties: Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin, Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey- $8 million

Lefties: Caleb Thielbar, Tommy Milone- $4 million

Closer: Glen Perkins- $4 million

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$16 million committed to seven relievers

 

Breakdown: This is quite a conglomeration of players. I hate having Mike Pelfrey on this team coming out of spring training but the Twins are going to eat his salary at the beginning of the year even if that's what I would do. As I said in the starting pitcher section, May gets moved to the bullpen where he can continue to develop and the Twins can use him in a variety of roles. I don't think the Twins are ready to let Tommy Milone loose after acquiring him at the end of last season. He will get arbitration as a Super 2 player and his salary will be around $3.5 million. Two names you will likely see gone from this list are Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak. Duensing is getting too expensive for what his role is and Swarzak gets pushed out by the likes of Milone and Pelfrey.

 

Minnesota Twins 2015 Checkbook

Starting Line-Up: $49.0 million

Bench Players: $4.5 million

Starting Pitching: $31.0 million

Bullpen: $16 million

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$100.5 million committed to Opening Day 25-man roster

 

 

What are your thoughts on this roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

 

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[Thrylos]

How many wins?
 

Cannot keep 90% of a team that lost 92 games and expect it to win.  Why invest $20+ million on Rasmus and Masterson (who I don't think is healthy btw) if you are not going to compete.  Better off playing the kids.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why invest $20+ million on Rasmus and Masterson (who I don't think is healthy btw) if you are not going to compete.  Better off playing the kids.

What kids?  He's already giving another chance to Hicks in this scenario, and there are no realistic OF "kids" ready to guarantee an opening day job right now (Hicks doesn't even deserve it, really).

 

He's also got Meyer in the rotation, with May in the pen presumably as the 6th starter (unless he becomes a dominant relief weapon).  Again, there are no other "kid" pitchers ready.

[darin617]

Colby Rasmus is highly overpaid if you are willing to give him $12M. When I look at his numbers nothing besides the HR's which is not the huge of number stands out. I would not feel bad about Justin Masterson on a 1yr with a club option.

[stringer bell]

I'm going against the grain and I am pretty optimistic about the 2015 club. I think the Twins added several players who are part of the future, and adding a good starter and perhaps a strong reliever and an outfielder could improve the club greatly.

 

From the OP, I don't agree with Colabello on the bench. He's had his chance and except for a hot month of April, he hasn't done the job in the majors. He's not really a left basher and he can only play first base (I never want to see him in the outfield!). I guess I mostly agree with the rotation and understand that a couple of runners-up will end up in the bullpen. Milone does have an option remaining, and if he doesn't make the rotation, he should be optioned. BTW, Escobar missed out on arb by a couple of days, so he won't make anything close to $2M.

[DocBauer]

Generally, I have to agree and think this is not only realistic, but well thought out and quite probable.

 

I am, however, going to offer a few counterpoints that I feel strongly about.

 

I'm betting on Hicks at Rochester and an acquisition such as Bourjos for CF.

 

I keep Nunez, and work him hard in ST at ALL INF spots and some OF to see what he can actually do. Maybe I'm the only one, but I like him as my 25th man.

 

Parmelee over Colabello. Honestly, he can play 3 spots half way decent, and probably earned it last season....finally.

 

I know that's one too many position players, but there are injuries and the such, so I'm allowing myself 1 extra for now.

 

May is in the rotation and not Meyer. There are 2 reasons. One is that May actually finished pretty well and even flashed a few times to end '14. I think he'll build on that. And this gives him a leg up on Meyer at this point. And the second reason is that Meyer can begin the season in the pen, work and gain experience, and then slide in to the rotation later on in the season, thus keeping his IP under a bit more control as his career high thus far is 130 I believe. He can pitch long and middle relief, maybe get a start or two, and slide in to the rotation around mid season.

 

Not ignoring the possibility of Pelfrey actually helping in the bullpen, but still think the Twins will make a low cost veteran move ala Burton a couple years ago.

[Kelly Vance]

Play the kids.

 

No Masterson. May in the rotation.

No Cola.Pamalee is more versatile and a little power, or Nunez. But audition Rosario, Buck and Sano to see if they can break camp with the big club. Mid season call ups more likely.

Berrios in the pen, along with Reed and/or Bordi.

Cut Milone and Pelfrey.

[Lonestar]

I would sign Rasmus for 1/$12M but I've read he is more likely to get $24-$36M.

I heart Hicks, but even I have targeted him for Rochester.

What is your backup plan for Hicks?

I like Pinto and think he will take over C (or maybe DH) before the end of the year.

I think you are overly sentimental regarding Colabello.

But the Twins are going to need someone who can fill in for Mauer - not necessarily on the active roster.  Plouffe can do that for 1 game.

If Masterson is all that's available at the end, 1/$10 can't hurt.  I think he's more of a backup plan.  But then I'm occasionally wrong.

You are allowed 1 LOOGY.  Neither Thielbar nor Milone are LOOGYs.

[iTwins]

I agree with most of your plan. There's only a few things I'd change (assuming I was Terry Ryan):

 

1) No Colabello. With Vargas and Pinto on the roster, the need for the DH / 1B type is already full (plus Mauer will DH on occassion too). I'd look either to Parmelee or Nunez. Parmelee if you think the team needs another big bat - Nunez if you want speed (I'd lean Nunez).

2) Swap Meyer and May. Let Meyer work as the 6th starter / long man for a while until he shows he's ready. May needs to start. He finished strong and should have the role until he proves he's a bullpen guy.

3) I like Rasmus in LF, but I'd like to see another plan at CF. If Hicks develops - great, if not, we need to have a better plan than Jordan Schafer. Make a move for Bourjos or sign Rios and Rasmus - some combination that gives the team better OF depth.

4) I like the notion of adding another starter. I'm not big on Masterson, but so long as it's someone other than a traveling #5 guy (akin to Pelfrey, Correia - etc.) it'll be an upgrade.

[tobi0040]

I generally like the plan.  I am a huge Rasmus guy.  Signing him on a 2-3 year deal would be ideal to me.  He has put up league average numbers (.751 OPS) through 22-28 seasons.  He could stabilize CF and move to a corner when Buxton comes up.  Then really force a competition between guys like Hicks/Rosario who otherwise may be handed a spot.  I think he may settle for a 1 year deal and I would do that over signing a mid 30's guy.

 

I would prefer a longer term signing than one year for Masterson. I like Ervin Santana.  Of the five guys we have penciled in right now for 2015 or penciled in for 2016, plans will change. Guys will get hurt or at least one guy we think will be good will not be good.  He would provide a talent upgrade as well, which is needed.

[Sam Morley]

I think people are too high on Masterson.

 

He was really terrible last season. I know that his knee was hurt, and that does matter. But he was really terrible, like worst SP in the league terrible. His era was almost 6 and he had a BB/9 of nearly 5. Maybe he was hurt, maybe his peripherals weren't as terrible, maybe he had a lousy d behind him. Okay, okay, okay. But the Cardinals didn't think he was hurt when they traded for him, or at least they thought he was on the mend; in fact, I believe they thought he had correctable mechanical problems vs injury problems. Perhaps they were wrong on both counts, because he pitched even worse for them than he did in Cleveland. And no doubt the Cardinals field a better d than the Indians. Plus, it's not like the Twins' D is great either; maybe described as "maturing" at best? 

 

In my opinion, if you are going to spend serious money (which apparently- and inexplicably- it will take to get Masterson) on a free agent, it needs to be as close to a guarantee as possible. Was Phil Hughes a guarantee? No, but I'd say he was about as close as the Twins have ever gotten.

 

If they aren't going to go after somebody serious, then the best thing they can do for the rotation is to find a way to get rid of Nolasco, and Pelfry and Milone while they're at it.

[tobi0040]

I think people are too high on Masterson.

 

He was really terrible last season. I know that his knee was hurt, and that does matter. But he was really terrible, like worst SP in the league terrible. His era was almost 6 and he had a BB/9 of nearly 5. Maybe he was hurt, maybe his peripherals weren't as terrible, maybe he had a lousy d behind him. Okay, okay, okay. But the Cardinals didn't think he was hurt when they traded for him, or at least they thought he was on the mend; in fact, I believe they thought he had correctable mechanical problems vs injury problems. Perhaps they were wrong on both counts, because he pitched even worse for them than he did in Cleveland. And no doubt the Cardinals field a better d than the Indians. Plus, it's not like the Twins' D is great either; maybe described as "maturing" at best? 

 

In my opinion, if you are going to spend serious money (which apparently- and inexplicably- it will take to get Masterson) on a free agent, it needs to be as close to a guarantee as possible. Was Phil Hughes a guarantee? No, but I'd say he was about as close as the Twins have ever gotten.

 

If they aren't going to go after somebody serious, then the best thing they can do for the rotation is to find a way to get rid of Nolasco, and Pelfry and Milone while they're at it.

 

I agree people are over-rating Masterson.  He will be 30 next year and has had exactly two good full seasons. His career ERA is 4.24. I persronally think his funky delivery is one of the reasons why he is so inconsistent.   I think the best case is you sign him, he pitches well, and then you flip him or get compensation when he leaves.

 

There is a decent shot that he is here and stinks up the joint like last year.   5.88 ERA and 5 BB / 9 like you mentioned. In that scenario our rotation is just as bad or worse than it has been.  His BB per 9 was actually higher last year than Meyer's was in the minors and that was supposedly why he was not promoted.

 

If he pitches well next year,  he has been too inconsistent to warrant even a 3 year extension, IMO.

[Tcrose3636]

I think the off-season blue print is very well laid out, and very realistic...except for one part, I do question that the payroll will be much north of $90M let alone over $100M...especially with how bad season ticket renewals are to be expected.

[Sam Morley]

 

There is a decent shot that he is here and stinks up the joint like last year.   5.88 ERA and 5 BB / 9 like you mentioned. In that scenario our rotation is just as bad or worse than it has been.

 

 

If this were to be the case, and the rotation is "just as bad", it would actually be worse. With a young and improving offense, there is nothing more discouraging than night after night of your starting pitching ensuring you will lose. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

In my opinion, if you are going to spend serious money (which apparently- and inexplicably- it will take to get Masterson) on a free agent, it needs to be as close to a guarantee as possible. Was Phil Hughes a guarantee? No, but I'd say he was about as close as the Twins have ever gotten.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a one-year, $12 mil deal for Masterson.  Is that serious money, in modern MLB?  If the guy is healthy, he's one year removed from being a legit All-Star, and he gets the same guaranteed cash as Pelfrey last winter?

[Otto von Ballpark]

If this were to be the case, and the rotation is "just as bad", it would actually be worse. With a young and improving offense, there is nothing more discouraging than night after night of your starting pitching ensuring you will lose. 

If our rotation is "just as bad" next year, that's not solely because we took a chance on Masterson or whomever.  It will also be because (some combination of) Gibson doesn't step forward, Nolasco doesn't rebound, Hughes regresses, etc.  (And while nobody likes to lose, I don't buy "discouragement" as a serious factor holding back our young hitters.)

 

If Masterson is bad again, and he's worse than your other starters, you can trade/disable him by early July, just like Cleveland did, just like we did with Nolasco, even earlier with Pelfrey, etc. But with two rotation spots that should be up for grabs in spring training, that's a chance I am willing to take with one of those spots for a couple months.