Article: The Best Defensive Outfielders in Free Agency

[DJL44]

I don't think Rosario has earned himself anything except a look-see for a promotion to AAA. A hot month in a league about the same level as AA doesn't show me enough.

 

Going with Aaron Hicks to start the season for the third time should get Terry Ryan fired. There is plenty of room for two free agent outfielders on the roster and in the payroll. There is actually less room in the rotation than there is in the outfield. Only 40% of the rotation slots are up for grabs versus 60% of the outfield.

[nicksaviking]

Tim Dierkes Tweeted that Yasmany Thomas is meeting with four teams and that three of those teams would typically be considered "very unlikely" to sign him. 

 

https://twitter.com/timdierkes/status/533010714697666560

 

Logic would say that the fourth team, or the non-unlikely suitor will win out, but I say it's time to get our hopes up unreasonably high and open ourselves up to the possibility that he's coming to Minnesota.  Screw our internal defense mechanisms built to protect us from crushed dreams!

 

Let's get the rampant speculation machine rolling! 

[tobi0040]

Tim Dierkes Tweeted that Yasmany Thomas is meeting with four teams and that three of those teams would typically be considered "very unlikely" to sign him. 

 

https://twitter.com/timdierkes/status/533010714697666560

 

Logic would say that the fourth team, or the non-unlikely suitor will win out, but I say it's time to get our hopes up unreasonably high and open ourselves up to the possibility that he's coming to Minnesota.  Screw our internal defense mechanisms built to protect us from crushed dreams!

 

Let's get the rampant speculation machine rolling! 

 

If the scouts are right (nowhere near the hitter Abreau is, low OBP, and poor defense), I think the "winner" may end up being a loser here.  Especially if the 6-100 people are expecting is the contract doled out.

 

At $15M a year.....what type of a player does he have to be in order to exceed that contract?  Matt Holiday signed 7-120.  A known commodity, track record of sucess in the league, career .908 OPS.  And this guy is going to be handed that?

 

I think this Cuban market is turning into a bubble.

Edited November 14, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think this Cuban market is turning into a bubble.

 

Yes and no - I think there's a more steady stream of Cuban defectors now than there has been for a long time. There are several smaller name Cuban players that may sign with MLB clubs. Specific to the big name guys, though, I'm inclined to agree that no one is going to be flying under the radar from Cuba.

 

The market could adjust itself, though, especially if Tomas (and Rusney Castillo) are not as good as the hype.

[nicksaviking]

If the scouts are right (nowhere near the hitter Abreau is, low OBP, and poor defense),

 

Well that's not the majority of the scouts. 

 

Abreu wasn't supposed to be anywhere near the hitter than Puig was and Puig wasn't supposed to have talent anywhere near what Cespedes had.  It's all a leap of faith at this point.  Someone's going to have mud on their face eventually with these Cubans, and with the Twins luck, it will be them if they finally take the plunge, but so far, the success rate of these guys is leaps and bounds ahead of every other means of procuring talent.

Edited November 14, 2014 by nicksaviking

[tobi0040]

Yes and no - I think there's a more steady stream of Cuban defectors now than there has been for a long time. There are several smaller name Cuban players that may sign with MLB clubs. Specific to the big name guys, though, I'm inclined to agree that no one is going to be flying under the radar from Cuba.

 

The market could adjust itself, though, especially if Tomas (and Rusney Castillo) are not as good as the hype.

 

Yeah, I think what may happen is everyone will want to get the next Abreau, except Tomas is not as good. So Tomas is going to get the contract that Abreau should have received and vice versa. 

 

If you go and look at their numbers in Cuba, you could not put up Abreau's on a video game set on rookie level.  Tomas's numbers don't jump out as incredible. 

 

The other thing, when an unknown guy (from Japan or Cuba) comes into the league they tend to regress after their first or second year as tape and tendencies get known.   Cespedes had a great first year.  I think his OPS was in the .850-.900 range.  Then he has basically been a .750 OPS guy the next two years.  

 

Hideo Nomo went from Cy Young caliber to a bum.  As did Dice-K.  Yu has been an exception in his three years. I would expect Abreau to regress from his .964 OPS and 36 HR.  But Tomas is going to be compensated based on Abreau's .964.

[tobi0040]

Well that's not the majority of the scouts. 

 

Abreu wasn't supposed to be anywhere near the hitter than Puig was and Puig wasn't supposed to have talent anywhere near what Cespedes had.  It's all a leap of faith at this point.  Someone's going to have mud on their face eventually with these Cubans, and with the Twins luck, it will be them if they finally take the plunge, but so far, the success rate of these guys is leaps and bounds ahead of every other means of procuring talent.

 

At this point the best barameter is what they did in the same league at the same age.  You can see that Abreeu and Tomas should not be compared to one another.  3x the HR.  2.5x the BB. 30% more 2B.  100 more points on the batting average.  The other site I can't find right now showed the OPS comp.  Off memory Abreau was in the 1.25 or 1.30 range and Tomas was in the .850 range.  In one of the three seasons Abreau had an OPS of 1.45.

 

Tomas does not draw a favorable comp to Cespedes, who in my opinion is wildly overrated.  The guy is a .750 OPS type corner OF.  Which is about league average. 

 

Tomas vs. Cespedes vs. Abreu (Ages 21-23)  Years G   AB   AVG   R    2B   3B     HR   RBI  BB   K

Tomas                                                      2012-2014   229   779  .293 119 48   6        31     145     71   155

Abreu                                                        2008-2010  252    845 .392  236 64    4      86        243 159   161

Cespedes                                                 2007-2009 261   1036 .309 252 54     6     72        221 117 135

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115336-how-hyped-defector-yasmani-tomas-compares-to-recent-cuban-phenoms

 

This sums it up for me, from Keith Law:

 

However, the fact that Tomas' numbers in Cuba weren’t as impressive as Abreu, Cespedes or Puig’s doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t receive a big payday once eligible to sign. According to Law, “Tomas might get paid like Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig, but he’s not in their class as a prospect, and if paid similarly, he would be benefiting from how successful Abreu and Puig have been.”

Edited November 14, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yes, there's definitely a bump to the first year for these guys. I would point to Ichiro and Hideki Matsui as two other examples of guys that beat the sophomore slump. But Ichiro is a once in a generation superstar. Abreu still might be that guy, we'll have to wait and see.

 

The one thing that is in Tomas' favor at this point is that he's younger than Puig, Abreu, and Cespedes were - It's possible that his development track would be different if he's learning on the job in MLB instead of in Cuba. Certainly, the numbers to this point in his career show he's closer to Cespedes than Abreu.

[tobi0040]

 

The one thing that is in Tomas' favor at this point is that he's younger than Puig, Abreu, and Cespedes were -

 

True, but the stats on the link are at the same age. 

[nicksaviking]

If Tomas and the rest of the Cubans that follow turn out to not be as good as their predecessors, then the Twins need to look themselves in the mirror and finally decide they can no longer afford to follow trends but instead create them.  At minimum, Oakland was instrumental in these transactions, there should be nothing Oakland can do that the Twins cannot unless resistance to innovation is insurmountable.

[tobi0040]

If Tomas and the rest of the Cubans that follow turn out to not be as good as their predecessors, then the Twins need to look themselves in the mirror and finally decide they can no longer afford to follow trends but instead create them.  At minimum, Oakland was instrumental in these transactions, there should be nothing Oakland can do that the Twins cannot unless resistance to innovation is insurmountable.

 

I have accepted the fact that the Twins will never be on the cutting edge. Whether that be analysis, shifting, SABR, platooning, etc.  Nothing I have seen over the last ten years suggests they are even within 10 years of the cutting edge.

 

Teams were shifting Bonds and others in the early 2000's. 

 

The A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. were hiring Ivy League MBA and statisticians in their front office in the early 2000's. 

 

Platooning was happening a 100 years ago.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platoon_system

 

The Twins will show up to the race with a horse they got a good deal on, only to be beaten by the first Model T.  Ten years later they will conclude they need to buy a car.  So they will go out and buy the model T that beat their horse in a race 10 years ago. 

Edited November 14, 2014 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

It's safe to say the Royals are one of the "unlikely" teams that are going after Tomas.  They are currently working him out at a number of positions. 

 

After they beat the A's in the play-in game I said I was torn.  I wanted to cheer for the underdog, but I was also jealous that a team that has historically been a doormat was going to put my favorite team's futility in an even brighter light.  If they gave out a large contract to an external player, that light would shine even brighter.

[nytwinsfan]

I have accepted the fact that the Twins will never be on the cutting edge. Whether that be analysis, shifting, SABR, platooning, etc.  Nothing I have seen over the last ten years suggests they are even within 10 years of the cutting edge.

 

Teams were shifting Bonds and others in the early 2000's. 

 

The A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. were hiring Ivy League MBA and statisticians in their front office in the early 2000's. 

 

Platooning was happening a 100 years ago.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platoon_system

 

The Twins will show up to the race with a horse they got a good deal on, only to be beaten by the first Model T.  Ten years later they will conclude they need to buy a car.  So they will go out and buy the model T that beat their horse in a race 10 years ago. 

 

I mostly agree, but the Twins are advancing in this department, despite being behind the curve, and bringing on Molitor should help a lot in this regard.

[tobi0040]

I mostly agree, but the Twins are advancing in this department, despite being behind the curve, and bringing on Molitor should help a lot in this regard.

 

True, but when you are ten years behind you will always be behind.  It is very hard to jump ahead 10 years and then keep up with the changes going on right now.

 

Goin joined the twins in ticket sales in 2000.   Then was major league administration in 2009, then baseball research in 2011 according to Beradino.

 

It also takes a GM that is in the know and coordination between the departments.  This article suggests the Twins were seeking ground ball pitchers in 2012 and the stats pointed them to Worley, Pelfrey, and Correia.

 

http://www.twincities.com/ci_23098690/minnesota-twins-join-moneyball-era-behind-mystery-man